AAP
Advance Auto Parts, Inc.Evidence as of 2026-09-18The desk's Snapshot
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Overview · Advance Auto Parts, Inc.
Advance Auto Parts, Inc. provides automotive replacement parts, accessories, batteries, and maintenance items for domestic and imported cars, vans, sport utility vehicles, and light and heavy duty trucks. The company offers battery accessories; belts and hoses; brakes and brake pads; chassis and climate control parts; clutches and drive shafts; engines and engine parts; exhaust systems and parts; hub assemblies; igni…
Management team
- Mr. Sri Donthi · Executive VP & CTOFind on LinkedIn
- Ms. Elizabeth E. Dreyer CPA · Senior VP, Controller & Chief Accounting OfficerFind on LinkedIn
- Mr. Stephen J. Szilagyi · Executive VP & Chief Supply Chain OfficerFind on LinkedIn
- Mr. Ryan Grimsland · Executive VP & CFOFind on LinkedIn
Start free to see the full management team.
Links open LinkedIn searches, not verified profiles. Team data from our market-data vendor's company profile.
Moneyta sentiment
Where the published evidence leans after the desk debated it, not a rating or a recommendation.
+0.1 on a −2 to +2 scale.
What builds the score
Solid bars are analyst rubric scores; faded bars are computed directly from data. Claims dropped in debate count for nothing; weakened claims count at half weight.
Editor's note
Written after the debate settled. The rest of the page is the evidence behind it.
The evidence balance is Mixed (+ 0.1 of a possible + 2; confidence high). Reported common shares outstanding rose incrementally from 60,022,245 as of 2025-10-27 to 60,400,000 as of 2026-08-17. For fiscal Q2 2026 (fiscal quarter ended 2026-08-17) the company reported net sales of $2,000,000,000, gross profit of $923,000,000 (a 46.15% gross margin), operating income of $101,000,000 (5.05% operating margin) and net income of $55,000,000 (2.75% net margin). The company reported recognizing $26 million in IEEPA tariff refunds in the twelve weeks ended July 18, 2026 and disclosed a Rule 10b5-1 repurchase that retired $29.1 million of notes in the quarter.
Market and valuation signals in the packet show large share-price weakness and volatility: price is roughly 17–19% below its 50‑ and 200‑day SMAs, three‑month momentum −27.4%, thirty‑day annualized volatility +80.9%, and a trailing twelve‑month P/E near 40.8 on EPS ttm $1.03 with market capitalization about $2,535,592,000 and enterprise value about $2,827,592,000.
How this note was made
every stage ran before the note was writtenAnalyst desk
Mercer, Oakes, Nash, Ellis, Yates, Talbot and Archer. The desk: named AI agents, not people. Each reads one slice of the evidence and nothing else (no outside knowledge, no browsing), so every finding traces to a source you can open.
Reads the XBRL figures companies file with the SEC (revenue, margins, income, debt and share count, quarter by quarter) and reports which way the trend is running.
Entity common shares outstanding rose from 60,022,245 as of 2025-10-27 to 60,100,000 as of 2026-02-09, to 60,300,000 as of 2026-05-18, and to 60,400,000 as of 2026-08-17 (points-in-time reported).
XBRL companyfacts · 0001628280-25-047523Revenue for fiscal Q2 2026 (2026-04-26 to 2026-07-18, 3mo) was $2,000,000,000 and gross profit for that same quarter was $923,000,000, implying a gross margin of 46.15% for that quarter (923,000,000 / 2,000,000,000).
XBRL companyfacts · 0001193125-26-359176Reads the filings themselves, above all the year-over-year diff of Item 1A risk factors: which risks a company added, dropped or quietly reworded since its last annual report.
Which filings the desk reads
The desk reads the annual 10-K in full: its risk factors, and how they changed since last year. Quarterly 10-Qs and event filings (8-Ks, insider Form 4s) are listed for context but not read line by line: the 10-K is where the material risk disclosures live. A brand-new company, or one we have only just begun tracking, may have no annual report on file yet; its risk analysis fills in once that lands.
In the Management's Discussion filed 2026-08-20, the Company reported net sales of $2.0 billion for the twelve weeks ended July 18, 2026, a decrease of 0.5% compared with the twelve weeks ended July 12, 2025, and comparable store sales decreased 0.5% for that twelve-week period.
10-Q filed 2026-08-20In the Management's Discussion filed 2026-08-20, gross profit margin for the twelve weeks ended July 18, 2026 was 46.2% of net sales, an increase of 267 basis points versus the twelve weeks ended July 12, 2025, and diluted earnings per share were $0.90 in the twelve weeks ended July 18, 2026 compared with $0.25 in the comparable prior period.
10-Q filed 2026-08-20Reads the signal panel above (momentum, volatility, drawdown, relative strength and beta) and ranks each against the whole research universe rather than judging it in isolation.
Three-month momentum is -27.4% and six-month momentum is -14.2%.
Moneyta signal set · 2026-09-17weakened in debatePrice is -17.4% versus the 50-day SMA and -18.8% versus the 200-day SMA, with drawdown from the three-year high of -48.9% and a three-year max drawdown of -64.3%.
Moneyta signal set · 2026-09-17Reads which funds hold the name and at what weight, plus insider Form 4 filings, to show the exposure you may already carry through index funds.
Reported institutional holdings totaled "$4.26B" as of 2026-06-30.
13F holdings · 383 filers · as of 2026-06-30The reported quarter shows a quarter-over-quarter value change of -93.7% in 13F-reported holdings.
13F holdings · 383 filers · as of 2026-06-30Reads recent headlines that are genuinely about this company, ignoring rating chatter and market-wide stories. Findings argue in the debate but never move the sentiment score.
Multiple recent headlines frame Advance Auto Parts in comparative 'which stock is a better buy' pieces that pair it with other companies (Intuitive Machines, NIO, Rocket Lab).
News · finance.yahoo.com · 2026-09-16The same comparative 'which stock is a better buy' headline appears across at least two distinct outlets (finance.yahoo.com and fool.com) on 16 September 2026.
News · fool.com · 2026-09-16Reads parsed Forms 3/4/5: who bought or sold, at what size, and whether a 10b5-1 plan was involved. Flags clustered open-market officer buying; treats plan sales as routine and never counts a fund or 10%-holder as an officer.
No insider transactions on file in the trailing 180 days.
Reads the implied-expectations math built from the company's own filings (the growth rate today's price would justify, and the multiples beside it) and argues whether the market's bar looks high or low for this business. Never turns the math into a target.
The reported price used in this analysis is $41.98 as of the price date 2026-09-17.
Valuation inputs · SEC XBRL + stored EOD closeTrailing twelve‑month earnings per share (EPS ttm) is $1.03 and the computed price/earnings (P/E ttm) ratio is 40.76.
Valuation inputs · SEC XBRL + stored EOD closeDebate and risk review
A bull and a bear contest the claims and the chair rules on each; the risk review stress-tests what survived.
A bull and a bear argue the analysts' claims across two rounds, then a chair rules on each one. Only what survives feeds the score. The argument is shown, not hidden, so you can judge the reasoning yourself.
Company-filed results show a clear operational improvement in the most recent quarter: gross margin expanded to ~46.2% and diluted EPS rose to $0.90 while the quarter moved from a minor loss to a $55M profit — these points are directly reported in the company filings (high-strength evidence). The firm also shows modest deleveraging in long-term debt and a cash balance roughly in line with recent levels, and executed targeted repurchases under a disclosed 10b5-1 plan (moderate-to-high strength evidence). Several negative market signals (sharp price weakness, momentum and volatility metrics) reflect market reaction rather than the quarter’s margin reset; institutional 13F flows may be distorted by filing timing and are a lagging data point (market/ownership evidence strong for price moves, but ownership drop is lower-strength for interpreting present demand). Taken together, company-reported margin and earnings improvements, debt improvement, and cash availability jointly support a favorable read on recent operational performance, while market and ownership signals highlight elevated uncertainty and re-pricing rather than contradictory company results.
Chair's verdict, claim by claim
Fragility · computed, not argued
balanced0.38
34 surviving claims rest on 12 distinct sources; the heaviest analyst carries 18% of them, and 98% of what the desk raised survived the debate.
The evidence set is moderately concentrated: 34 surviving claims draw on a dozen distinct sources, so conclusions rest on multiple document types but not a broad base. One analyst's work accounts for a meaningful slice (almost one-fifth), and the fact that 98% of desk-raised items survived debate means the claims are stable within the research process but also potentially brittle to new, external information or a material counter-document.
Peer context · computed, not argued
12-1 momentum ranks 2nd of 4 in Specialty Retail (as of 2026-09-17).
6-month relative strength ranks 4th of 4 in Specialty Retail (as of 2026-09-17).
90-day volatility ranks 1st of 4 in Specialty Retail (as of 2026-09-17).
dividend yield ranks 2nd of 4 in Specialty Retail (as of 2026-09-17).
Disconfirming evidence · base rates · falsifiers
Context
Outside consensus, and where this name already sits in your own portfolio.
Third-party consensus shown for context. It never enters Moneyta sentiment. When the two diverge, the debate above is where the why lives.
What this was built from
Every figure on this page traces to one of these. The desk reads only what is listed here (no outside knowledge, no browsing), and each card shows who read it and what it contributed to the score.
8 filings· 2 cited
SEC XBRL filings
Quarterly figures as filed with the SEC, read straight from EDGAR's structured data, not retyped or estimated.
Read by Mercer+0.8 to the score
5 documents· 2 cited
SEC filing documents
The filings themselves, including the year-over-year comparison of Item 1A risk factors.
Read by Oakes+0.5 to the score
1 signal set
Moneyta signal set
Computed from our own end-of-day price history and ranked against the whole research universe. No AI involved.
Read by Nash−0.8 to the score
2 holdings records· 1 cited
Fund holdings
Which funds hold this name and at what weight, plus insider Form 4 filings.
Read by Ellis+0.0 to the score
8 headlines· 2 cited
News coverage
Recent headlines about this company, rating chatter excluded and nothing published after the report date.
Read by Yatesnothing survived
1 computation
Valuation inputs
TTM cash-flow figures from the company's own XBRL filings, priced with the stored closing price. Implied growth and multiples only; no fair-value dollar figure reaches the desk, by design.
Read by Archercontext only
1 record· 0 cited
Company profile
Sector, industry and company details.
1 record· 0 cited
Analyst consensus
Third-party consensus, shown for context only; it never enters Moneyta sentiment.
Read means we pulled and handed it to an analyst; cited means a claim on this page points at it. Reading twelve quarters to state one trend is normal; the gap is shown rather than hidden.
Written by AI, checked against sources
The analysts, the bull–bear debate and the editor's note are AI agents reading only the evidence listed on this page. They can misread a filing or a headline, which is why every claim cites a source you can open and check yourself. The sentiment score is arithmetic over the claims that survived the debate, not a language model's opinion.
Educational analysis of published data. Moneyta does not give investment advice or make recommendations. Past patterns do not indicate future results.
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