Moneyta · signal evidence · no sign-up needed
What actually happened, every time
Every signal Moneyta surfaces, measured the only honest way: every historical firing, the forward return that followed, and how often it beat the index. No cherry-picking: every firing counts, and thin histories say so instead of pretending.
Momentum leaders (12-1)
A stock enters the top tenth of the coverage universe by 12-month momentum (excluding the most recent month).
1306 times fired · +0.4% median 6-mo vs S&P 500 · 51% beat the index
Relative-strength leaders (6m)
A stock enters the top tenth of the universe by 6-month return relative to the S&P 500.
1866 times fired · +0.4% median 6-mo vs S&P 500 · 51% beat the index
Quiet stocks (90-day volatility)
A stock enters the calmest tenth of the universe by 90-day realized volatility.
571 times fired · -0.5% median 6-mo vs S&P 500 · 40% beat the index
Highest dividend yields
A stock enters the top tenth of the universe by trailing dividend yield.
411 times fired · -0.3% median 6-mo vs S&P 500 · 48% beat the index
Clustered insider buying
Two or more insiders of the same company buy in the open market within a rolling window — the signal literature's strongest insider setup.
4 events so far; honest rates appear at 30.
Institutional accumulation
Among the 500 largest 13F filers, the number holding a stock rose quarter over quarter while their net dollars in it also rose.
2743 times fired · -2.8% median 6-mo vs S&P 500 · 41% beat the index
Insiders and institutions agreeing
Clustered insider buying fires on a stock that also saw institutional accumulation in its latest filed quarter — the conviction screen's setup.
4 events so far; honest rates appear at 30.
Further reading
A base rate is not a prediction. Educational analysis of published data — insight, not advice.