ABNB
Airbnb, Inc.Evidence as of 2026-09-02Moneyta sentiment
Where the published evidence leans after the desk debated it — not a rating or a recommendation.
+0.0 on a −2 to +2 scale — was +0.1 before the debate changed the read.
What builds the score
Solid bars are analyst rubric scores; faded bars are computed directly from data. Claims dropped in debate count for nothing; weakened claims count at half weight.
Editor's note
Written after the debate settled — the rest of the page is the evidence behind it.
The surviving evidence paints a mixed operating picture with clear seasonality and capital moves. Revenue rose from $ 2,272,000,000 in the fiscal quarter ended 2025-03-31 (Q1 2025) to peaks of $ 4,095,000,000 in the fiscal quarter ended 2025-09-30 (Q3 2025), and was $ 3,608,000,000 in the fiscal quarter ended 2026-06-30 (Q2 2026); quarter gross margins ranged roughly from 77.7% to 86.6% across the same intervals. Operating income showed materially higher results in mid-2025 and mid-2026 (for example $ 1,625,000,000 in Q3 2025 and $ 758,000,000 in Q2 2026 versus $ 38,000,000 in Q1 2025), and net income followed a similar pattern.
The company reduced diluted share count from 632,000,000 in Q1 2025 to 597,000,000 in Q2 2026, consistent with $ 807,000,000 and $ 1,088,000,000 in repurchases in the quarters ended 2025-03-31 and 2026-03-31 respectively. Balance-sheet evidence shows cash near $ 6.5–7.0 billion ( $ 6,560,000,000 at FY 2025; $ 6,821,000,000 at Q2 2026) and material long-term debt reported as $ 0 at FY 2025 versus $ 2,476,000,000 as of Q2 2026. Market signals are mixed: six‑month momentum is + 37.2% (91st percentile) and price sits above its 50‑ and 200‑day averages with a 98‑day golden cross, while realized volatility is elevated (30‑day annualized + 59.7%, 90‑day + 41.8%).
How this note was made
every stage ran before the note was writtenAnalyst desk
Mercer, Oakes, Nash, Ellis, Yates, Talbot and Archer. The desk: named AI agents, not people. Each reads one slice of the evidence and nothing else — no outside knowledge, no browsing — so every finding traces to a source you can open.
Reads the XBRL figures companies file with the SEC — revenue, margins, income, debt and share count, quarter by quarter — and reports which way the trend is running.
Revenue was $2,272,000,000 in the quarter 2025-01-01 to 2025-03-31 and rose to $3,096,000,000 in 2025-04-01 to 2025-06-30, $4,095,000,000 in 2025-07-01 to 2025-09-30, then was $2,672,800,000 in 2026-01-01 to 2026-03-31 and $3,608,000,000 in 2026-04-01 to 2026-06-30.
XBRL companyfacts · 0001559720-26-000014Cost of revenue was $506,000,000 for 2025-01-01 to 2025-03-31, $544,000,000 for 2025-04-01 to 2025-06-30, $549,000,000 for 2025-07-01 to 2025-09-30, $581,000,000 for 2026-01-01 to 2026-03-31 and $633,000,000 for 2026-04-01 to 2026-06-30, yielding quarter gross margins (revenue minus cost divided by revenue) of approximately 77.7%, 82.4%, 86.6%, 78.2% and 82.5% for those respective quarters.
XBRL companyfacts · 0001559720-26-000014Reads the filings themselves, above all the year-over-year diff of Item 1A risk factors: which risks a company added, dropped or quietly reworded since its last annual report.
Which filings the desk reads
The desk reads the annual 10-K in full — its risk factors, and how they changed since last year. Quarterly 10-Qs and event filings (8-Ks, insider Form 4s) are listed for context but not read line by line: the 10-K is where the material risk disclosures live. A brand-new company, or one we have only just begun tracking, may have no annual report on file yet — its risk analysis fills in once that lands.
A Form 4 with the 4 filed 28 August 2026 was filed on 2026-08-28; the filing’s parse_status is listed as pending and primary_doc_url is null in the evidence set.
4 filed 2026-08-28A Form 4 with the 4 filed 26 August 2026 was filed on 2026-08-26; the filing’s parse_status is listed as skipped and primary_doc_url is null in the evidence set.
4 filed 2026-08-26Reads the signal panel above — momentum, volatility, drawdown, relative strength and beta — and ranks each against the whole research universe rather than judging it in isolation.
Six-month price momentum is +37.2% and ranks in the 91th percentile of the 547-stock research universe, indicating strong recent relative momentum.
Moneyta signal set · 2026-09-01weakened in debatePrice is above both the 50-day simple moving average by +13.8% and the 200-day simple moving average by +31.8%, and a golden cross is present (cross age 98 days), which are commonly interpreted as favorable technical positionings.
Moneyta signal set · 2026-09-01Reads which funds hold the name and at what weight, plus insider Form 4 filings, to show the exposure you may already carry through index funds.
As of 2026-09-02, ABNB appears in the IVV ETF with a reported weight of 0.09% of that fund.
ETF constituents · market dataThere are seven Form 4 filings for ABNB with filed dates clustered between 19 August 2026 and 28 August 2026 (filed_date values: 2026-08-19, 2026-08-21, 2026-08-21, 2026-08-21, 2026-08-26, 2026-08-26, 2026-08-28).
Form 4 × 7 (90d window not enforced here)Reads recent headlines that are genuinely about this company, ignoring rating chatter and market-wide stories. Findings argue in the debate but never move the sentiment score.
A 2 September 2026 headline reports Airbnb CEO Brian Chesky donated 76,500 shares in an August 28 transaction.
News · kalkinemedia.com · 2026-09-02A 2 September 2026 headline reports Airbnb named Pepijn Rijvers chief business officer as the company furthers its hotel strategy.
News · finance.yahoo.com · 2026-09-02Reads parsed Forms 3/4/5 — who bought or sold, at what size, and whether a 10b5-1 plan was involved. Flags clustered open-market officer buying; treats plan sales as routine and never counts a fund or 10%-holder as an officer.
Nathan Blecharczyk (Chief Strategy Officer) reported multiple large sales under a stated 10b5-1 plan, including a $38.0M sale of 199,878 shares on 2026-08-25.
Form 4 · Blecharczyk Nathan (Chief Strategy Officer) · $0 code C · 2026-08-25Nathan Blecharczyk (Chief Strategy Officer) reported additional 10b5-1-plan sales on 2026-08-24 totaling $27.7M across separate entries (sales of $18.7M for 98,055 shares, $4.4M for 23,125 shares, $4.7M for 24,563 shares, and $946k for 4,897 shares) as shown on the filing.
Form 4 · Blecharczyk Nathan (Chief Strategy Officer) · $0 code C · 2026-08-25Reads the implied-expectations math built from the company's own filings (the growth rate today's price would justify, and the multiples beside it) and argues whether the market's bar looks high or low for this business. Never turns the math into a target.
Free cash flow for the trailing twelve months is $6,971,627,000.
Valuation inputs · SEC XBRL + stored EOD closePrice-to-FCF based on the provided price of $182.545 and FCF per share of $11.6778 is 15.63.
Valuation inputs · SEC XBRL + stored EOD closeDebate and risk review
A bull and a bear contest the claims and the chair rules on each; the risk review stress-tests what survived.
A bull and a bear argue the analysts' claims across two rounds, then a chair rules on each one. Only what survives feeds the score — the argument is shown, not hidden, so you can judge the reasoning yourself.
The evidence set shows materially higher revenue and operating income in the mid-2025 and mid-2026 quarters alongside rising net income, indicating meaningful periodic earnings power (fundamentals-0, fundamentals-2, fundamentals-3). Trailing free cash flow is large (~$6.97B) with an FCF/share-derived P/FCF of ~15.6 and sizeable cash on the balance sheet (~$6.8B) versus reported long-term debt (~$2.48B), which together point to substantial liquidity and cash-generation capacity relative to debt (valuation-0, valuation-1, valuation-3, valuation-4, fundamentals-7). The company has actively reduced diluted share count and executed sizable repurchases, which increased shareholder-economic-per-share metrics over time (fundamentals-4, fundamentals-5). Market signals and recent analyst coverage are supportive of positive sentiment: strong six-month momentum, price clear of 50/200-day averages with a golden cross, and multiple reported target lifts and bullish analyst stories (market-0, market-1, news-2, news-3, news-4). Insider activity is mixed, but several filings show acquisitions by senior finance officers concurrent with 10b5-1-plan sales by others, which provides nuance to interpretations of insider transactions (insider-0, insider-1, insider-2, insider-3, insider-4).
Chair's verdict, claim by claim
Fragility · computed, not argued
diversified0.26
40 surviving claims rest on 24 distinct sources; the heaviest analyst carries 20% of them, and 99% of what the desk raised survived the debate.
The read rests on a moderately broad evidence base but shows concentration risks: a single analyst team accounts for a fifth of surviving claims and nearly all raised points survived internal debate, which limits the dataset’s challenge-testing. That combination means the findings are informative but somewhat fragile — useful for situational awareness, yet they should carry less standalone weight until more independent sources or parsed filings reduce source and analyst concentration.
Peer context · computed, not argued
12-1 momentum ranks 2nd of 4 in Travel Services (as of 2026-09-01).
90-day volatility ranks 3rd of 4 in Travel Services (as of 2026-09-01).
dividend yield ranks 4th of 4 in Travel Services (as of 2026-09-01).
Disconfirming evidence · base rates · falsifiers
Context
Outside consensus, and where this name already sits in your own portfolio.
Third-party consensus shown for context. It never enters Moneyta sentiment — when the two diverge, the debate above is where the why lives.
What this was built from
Every figure on this page traces to one of these. The desk reads only what is listed here — no outside knowledge, no browsing — and each card shows who read it and what it contributed to the score.
11 filings· 1 cited
SEC XBRL filings
Quarterly figures as filed with the SEC, read straight from EDGAR's structured data — not retyped or estimated.
Read by Mercer+0.5 to the score
7 documents· 2 cited
SEC filing documents
The filings themselves, including the year-over-year comparison of Item 1A risk factors.
Read by Oakes+0.0 to the score
1 signal set
Moneyta signal set
Computed from our own end-of-day price history and ranked against the whole research universe. No AI involved.
Read by Nash−0.1 to the score
2 holdings records
Fund holdings
Which funds hold this name and at what weight, plus insider Form 4 filings.
Read by Ellis+0.0 to the score
8 headlines· 2 cited
News coverage
Recent headlines about this company, rating chatter excluded and nothing published after the report date.
Read by Yatesnothing survived
6 filings· 1 cited
Insider filings
Parsed Forms 3/4/5 from EDGAR: named insiders, share counts, prices, and 10b5-1 plan state — stated and inferred flags kept apart.
Read by Talbot−0.2 to the score
1 computation
Valuation inputs
TTM cash-flow figures from the company's own XBRL filings, priced with the stored closing price. Implied growth and multiples only; no fair-value dollar figure reaches the desk, by design.
Read by Archercontext only
1 record· 0 cited
Company profile
Sector, industry and company details.
1 record· 0 cited
Analyst consensus
Third-party consensus, shown for context only — it never enters Moneyta sentiment.
Read means we pulled and handed it to an analyst; cited means a claim on this page points at it. Reading twelve quarters to state one trend is normal — the gap is shown rather than hidden.
Written by AI, checked against sources
The analysts, the bull–bear debate and the editor's note are AI agents reading only the evidence listed on this page. They can misread a filing or a headline, which is why every claim cites a source you can open and check yourself. The sentiment score is arithmetic over the claims that survived the debate, not a language model's opinion.
Educational analysis of published data. Moneyta does not give investment advice or make recommendations. Past patterns do not indicate future results.
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The full terminal on ABNB Gold
Who holds it, who's buying, what the Street thinks: live behind the lock, updated as filings land.
Institutional holders
Net institutional flow, Q/Q
Largest holder position
Insider buys, 90 days
Clustered insider value
Street target range
The real figures are for members. Educational analysis, not advice.
Educational analysis of published data. Moneyta does not give investment advice or make recommendations.