ADBE
Adobe Inc.Evidence as of 2026-09-11The desk's Snapshot
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Overview · Adobe Inc.
Adobe Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a diversified software company worldwide. It operates through three segments: Digital Media, Digital Experience, and Publishing and Advertising. The Digital Media segment offers products, services, and solutions that enable individuals, teams, and enterprises to create, publish, and promote content; and Document Cloud, a unified cloud-based document services pla…
Management team
- Mr. Shanmugh Natarajan · MD of India & VP of ProductsFind on LinkedIn
- Ms. Lara H. Balazs · Chief Marketing Officer & Executive Vice President of Global MarketingFind on LinkedIn
- Dr. Anil S. Chakravarthy · President of Digital Experience BusinessFind on LinkedIn
- Mr. David Wadhwani · President of Digital Media BusinessFind on LinkedIn
Start free to see the full management team.
Links open LinkedIn searches, not verified profiles. Team data from our market-data vendor's company profile.
Moneyta sentiment
Where the published evidence leans after the desk debated it, not a rating or a recommendation.
−0.7 on a −2 to +2 scale.
What builds the score
Solid bars are analyst rubric scores; faded bars are computed directly from data. Claims dropped in debate count for nothing; weakened claims count at half weight.
Editor's note
Written after the debate settled. The rest of the page is the evidence behind it.
The evidence balance is Cautious ( -0.7 of a possible +2; confidence high). Revenues rose from $ 6,398,000,000 in Q1 2026 (fiscal quarter ended 2026-03-20) to $ 6,618,000,000 in Q2 2026 (fiscal quarter ended 2026-06-11), with gross profit moving from $ 5,734,000,000 (about 89.6% gross margin) to $ 5,903,000,000 (about 89.2%), and operating income declining from $ 2,418,000,000 ( ~ 37.8% operating margin) to $ 2,238,000,000 ( ~ 33.8%).
Net income fell from $ 1,889,000,000 in Q1 2026 to $ 1,712,000,000 in Q2 2026 and diluted EPS moved from $ 4.60 to $ 4.25. Shares outstanding and long-term debt both declined over recent balance dates while cash and cash equivalents fell by $ 1,413,000,000 between 2026-02-27 and 2026-05-29. The 10-K (filed 15 January 2026) expanded risk disclosure for AI regulation, reputational and liability exposure from AI, and large-scale cybersecurity compromise risk. Market and valuation signals show sizable historical drawdown (maximum -69.5% over three years), weak 12-month momentum ( -22.7%), elevated volatility (90-day annualized ~ 49.3%), low beta ( 0.36), price modestly below moving averages, P/E (TTM) ~ 14.66, price-to-FCF ~ 12.36, and an implied FCF-growth input of about -2.24% under the stated valuation assumptions.
How this note was made
every stage ran before the note was writtenAnalyst desk
Mercer, Oakes, Nash, Ellis, Yates, Talbot and Archer. The desk: named AI agents, not people. Each reads one slice of the evidence and nothing else (no outside knowledge, no browsing), so every finding traces to a source you can open.
Reads the XBRL figures companies file with the SEC (revenue, margins, income, debt and share count, quarter by quarter) and reports which way the trend is running.
Revenues were $6,398,000,000 in fiscal Q1 2026 (2025-11-29 to 2026-02-27, 3mo) and $6,618,000,000 in fiscal Q2 2026 (2026-02-28 to 2026-05-29, 3mo), an increase of $220,000,000 between those consecutive fiscal quarters.
XBRL companyfacts · 0000796343-26-000056Gross profit was $5,734,000,000 in fiscal Q1 2026 and $5,903,000,000 in fiscal Q2 2026, with gross margin of about 89.6% in fiscal Q1 2026 (5,734 / 6,398) and about 89.2% in fiscal Q2 2026 (5,903 / 6,618), a small gross-margin compression quarter-over-quarter.
XBRL companyfacts · 0000796343-26-000056Reads the filings themselves, above all the year-over-year diff of Item 1A risk factors: which risks a company added, dropped or quietly reworded since its last annual report.
Which filings the desk reads
The desk reads the annual 10-K in full: its risk factors, and how they changed since last year. Quarterly 10-Qs and event filings (8-Ks, insider Form 4s) are listed for context but not read line by line: the 10-K is where the material risk disclosures live. A brand-new company, or one we have only just begun tracking, may have no annual report on file yet; its risk analysis fills in once that lands.
The 10-K filed 15 January 2026 added risks noting that "Jurisdictions around the world are developing and passing new regulations that apply specifically to the use of AI" and that the EU AI Act "have gone into effect and will continue to be implemented in phases through 2030," highlighting regulatory exposure tied to AI, with the filing naming U.S., EU and state-level developments as sources of uncertainty.
10-K filed 2026-01-15The 10-K filed 15 January 2026 added risk language that "Social, ethical and operational issues relating to the use of AI, including generative AI and agentic AI, in our solutions may result in reputational harm, liability and additional costs," signaling increased company disclosure about reputational and liability exposure from AI use.
10-K filed 2026-01-15Reads the signal panel above (momentum, volatility, drawdown, relative strength and beta) and ranks each against the whole research universe rather than judging it in isolation.
Over the three years ending 2026-09-10, the security shows a maximum drawdown of -69.5% and a drawdown from its 3-year high of -60.8%; its 3-year drawdown ranks in the 8th percentile of the 554-stock research universe.
Moneyta signal set · 2026-09-10Longer-term momentum and relative strength are weak: 12-month momentum (12_1) is -22.7%, 12-month relative strength is -47.2%, and the rank_momentum_12_1 is in the 13th percentile of 554.
Moneyta signal set · 2026-09-10Reads which funds hold the name and at what weight, plus insider Form 4 filings, to show the exposure you may already carry through index funds.
13F-reported institutional holdings total $83.09B as of the period ended 2026-03-31, with reported aggregate value down 32.7% quarter-over-quarter and 543 positions exited versus 2 new positions added.
13F holdings · 2175 filers · as of 2026-03-31Top reported 13F holders as of the 2026-03-31 filing include BlackRock, Inc. ($9.92B), VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC ($6.49B), and STATE STREET CORP ($4.84B).
13F holdings · 2175 filers · as of 2026-03-31Reads recent headlines that are genuinely about this company, ignoring rating chatter and market-wide stories. Findings argue in the debate but never move the sentiment score.
A headline reports that Adobe disclosed third-quarter fiscal 2026 revenue of $6.76 billion, up 13% year over year, and announced a leadership transition taking effect Dec. 1.
News · finance.yahoo.com · 2026-09-10A headline states Adobe's Q3 revenue outlook came in below expectations and that shares declined after the announcement.
News · gurufocus.com · 2026-09-10Reads parsed Forms 3/4/5: who bought or sold, at what size, and whether a 10b5-1 plan was involved. Flags clustered open-market officer buying; treats plan sales as routine and never counts a fund or 10%-holder as an officer.
On 2026-04-28 the Chair and CEO reported three open-market sales totaling $18.2M across 75,000 shares (specifically $12.5M for 51,422 shares, $3.2M for 13,237 shares, and $2.5M for 10,341 shares).
Form 4 · NARAYEN SHANTANU (Chair and CEO) · $12.5M sold · 2026-04-28A director reported an open-market purchase of $1.9M for 10,000 shares on 2026-06-25.
Form 4 · Ricks David A (Director) · $1.9M bought · 2026-06-25Reads the implied-expectations math built from the company's own filings (the growth rate today's price would justify, and the multiples beside it) and argues whether the market's bar looks high or low for this business. Never turns the math into a target.
The implied free cash flow (FCF) growth rate that today's price would justify, under the stated discount and terminal assumptions, is -0.0224 (i.e., about -2.24%).
Valuation inputs · SEC XBRL + stored EOD closePrice-to-FCF (TTM) is 12.36, with FCF (TTM) of $8,106,000,000 and implied FCF per share of $20.1391.
Valuation inputs · SEC XBRL + stored EOD closeDebate and risk review
A bull and a bear contest the claims and the chair rules on each; the risk review stress-tests what survived.
A bull and a bear argue the analysts' claims across two rounds, then a chair rules on each one. Only what survives feeds the score. The argument is shown, not hidden, so you can judge the reasoning yourself.
Quarterly operating topline and gross-profit data show sequential revenue growth and very high gross margins, while the company has meaningfully reduced shares outstanding and long-term debt in the reported periods — evidence that capital returns and balance-sheet deleveraging are active and measurable. Valuation multiples (P/FCF 12.36, EV/EBITDA ~10.1, P/E ~14.7) and the implied FCF-growth calculation provide a consistently strong, model-based signal that current price embeds modest growth expectations; these are concrete, arithmetic observations drawn from the provided valuation evidence. Several news items report revenue beats and subscription/AI positioning ahead of the quarterly report, and ETF inclusion plus large 13F holders indicate continued structural institutional and passive demand, which together contextualize the favorable fundamental and valuation evidence. In contesting bearish points, the stock's historic drawdown and elevated realized volatility are shown in the market claims but are accompanied by a low beta and low correlation to the market, implying those market-statistics are more idiosyncratic than broad-market — this challenges a purely market-driven negative read. Evidence strength: the financial-statement and valuation claims are strong (direct filings and computed multiples), ETF/13F holdings and news items are medium strength (public filings and press coverage), and the market-volatility/drawdown claims are strong data points but can be interpreted differently when combined with low market coupling.
Chair's verdict, claim by claim
Fragility · computed, not argued
balanced0.32
40 surviving claims rest on 19 distinct sources; the heaviest analyst carries 18% of them, and 100% of what the desk raised survived the debate.
The surviving read is moderately robust: 40 upheld claims draw on 19 distinct sources, so the view is not concentrated in a single document, but a small group of contributors carries disproportionate influence. Because the desk-level material all survived review and the heaviest analyst is responsible for nearly a fifth of claims, treat the bundle as informative yet somewhat brittle to new primary filings or large-source recharacterizations.
Peer context · computed, not argued
12-1 momentum ranks 16th of 21 in Software—Infrastructure (as of 2026-09-10).
6-month relative strength ranks 19th of 21 in Software—Infrastructure (as of 2026-09-10).
90-day volatility ranks 18th of 21 in Software—Infrastructure (as of 2026-09-10).
Disconfirming evidence · base rates · falsifiers
Context
Outside consensus, and where this name already sits in your own portfolio.
Third-party consensus shown for context. It never enters Moneyta sentiment. When the two diverge, the debate above is where the why lives.
What this was built from
Every figure on this page traces to one of these. The desk reads only what is listed here (no outside knowledge, no browsing), and each card shows who read it and what it contributed to the score.
9 filings· 2 cited
SEC XBRL filings
Quarterly figures as filed with the SEC, read straight from EDGAR's structured data, not retyped or estimated.
Read by Mercer+0.0 to the score
6 documents· 3 cited
SEC filing documents
The filings themselves, including the year-over-year comparison of Item 1A risk factors.
Read by Oakes−0.8 to the score
1 signal set
Moneyta signal set
Computed from our own end-of-day price history and ranked against the whole research universe. No AI involved.
Read by Nash−1.3 to the score
3 holdings records· 1 cited
Fund holdings
Which funds hold this name and at what weight, plus insider Form 4 filings.
Read by Ellis+0.2 to the score
8 headlines· 2 cited
News coverage
Recent headlines about this company, rating chatter excluded and nothing published after the report date.
Read by Yatesnothing survived
10 filings· 2 cited
Insider filings
Parsed Forms 3/4/5 from EDGAR: named insiders, share counts, prices, and 10b5-1 plan state, with stated and inferred flags kept apart.
Read by Talbot−0.5 to the score
1 computation
Valuation inputs
TTM cash-flow figures from the company's own XBRL filings, priced with the stored closing price. Implied growth and multiples only; no fair-value dollar figure reaches the desk, by design.
Read by Archercontext only
1 record· 0 cited
Company profile
Sector, industry and company details.
1 record· 0 cited
Analyst consensus
Third-party consensus, shown for context only; it never enters Moneyta sentiment.
Read means we pulled and handed it to an analyst; cited means a claim on this page points at it. Reading twelve quarters to state one trend is normal; the gap is shown rather than hidden.
Written by AI, checked against sources
The analysts, the bull–bear debate and the editor's note are AI agents reading only the evidence listed on this page. They can misread a filing or a headline, which is why every claim cites a source you can open and check yourself. The sentiment score is arithmetic over the claims that survived the debate, not a language model's opinion.
Educational analysis of published data. Moneyta does not give investment advice or make recommendations. Past patterns do not indicate future results.
The full terminal on ADBE Gold
Who holds it, who's buying, what the Street thinks: live behind the lock, updated as filings land.
Institutional holders
Net institutional flow, Q/Q
Largest holder position
Insider buys, 90 days
Clustered insider value
Street target range
The real figures are for members. Educational analysis, not advice.
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Educational analysis of published data. Moneyta does not give investment advice or make recommendations.