ADM
Archer-Daniels-Midland CompanyEvidence as of 2026-09-02Moneyta sentiment
Where the published evidence leans after the desk debated it — not a rating or a recommendation.
+0.8 on a −2 to +2 scale.
What builds the score
Solid bars are analyst rubric scores; faded bars are computed directly from data. Claims dropped in debate count for nothing; weakened claims count at half weight.
Editor's note
Written after the debate settled — the rest of the page is the evidence behind it.
The surviving evidence paints a constructive picture (evidence balance +0.8 of +2; confidence high). Reported GAAP revenues rose from $20,490,000,000 in fiscal Q1 2026 (fiscal quarter ended 2026-04-30) to $22,681,000,000 in fiscal Q2 2026 (fiscal quarter ended 2026-07-30), an increase of $2,191,000,000 (≈ 10.7%). Gross profit expanded from $1,222,000,000 to $1,935,000,000 over the same pair of quarters, lifting calculated gross margin to about 8.5% in fiscal Q2 2026 from about 6.0% in fiscal Q1 2026, while net income rose from $298,000,000 to $908,000,000 and diluted EPS moved from $0.62 to $1.87.
Balance-sheet and liquidity items survived the review as well: long-term noncurrent debt declined to $6,451,000,000 as of 2026-06-30 versus $7,606,000,000 as of 2025-06-30, cash and equivalents were $1,060,000,000 as of 2026-06-30, and trailing‑twelve‑month free cash flow remained negative at -$2,242,000,000 with FCF per share of -$4.6227.
How this note was made
every stage ran before the note was writtenAnalyst desk
Mercer, Oakes, Nash, Ellis, Yates, Talbot and Archer. The desk: named AI agents, not people. Each reads one slice of the evidence and nothing else — no outside knowledge, no browsing — so every finding traces to a source you can open.
Reads the XBRL figures companies file with the SEC — revenue, margins, income, debt and share count, quarter by quarter — and reports which way the trend is running.
Reported GAAP revenues rose from $20,490,000,000 in fiscal Q1 2026 (2026-01-01 to 2026-03-31, 3mo) to $22,681,000,000 in fiscal Q2 2026 (2026-04-01 to 2026-06-30, 3mo) — an increase of $2,191,000,000 (≈10.7%).
XBRL companyfacts · 0000007084-26-000023Gross profit expanded from $1,222,000,000 in fiscal Q1 2026 (2026-01-01 to 2026-03-31, 3mo) to $1,935,000,000 in fiscal Q2 2026 (2026-04-01 to 2026-06-30, 3mo); calculated gross margin rose to about 8.5% in fiscal Q2 2026 (1,935 / 22,681) from about 6.0% in fiscal Q1 2026 (1,222 / 20,490).
XBRL companyfacts · 0000007084-26-000042Reads the filings themselves, above all the year-over-year diff of Item 1A risk factors: which risks a company added, dropped or quietly reworded since its last annual report.
Nothing in this slice of the evidence rose to a claim — a quiet read, which itself is information.
Which filings the desk reads
The desk reads the annual 10-K in full — its risk factors, and how they changed since last year. Quarterly 10-Qs and event filings (8-Ks, insider Form 4s) are listed for context but not read line by line: the 10-K is where the material risk disclosures live. A brand-new company, or one we have only just begun tracking, may have no annual report on file yet — its risk analysis fills in once that lands.
Reads the signal panel above — momentum, volatility, drawdown, relative strength and beta — and ranks each against the whole research universe rather than judging it in isolation.
No computed signal history for this symbol yet — signals need roughly 70 trading days of price history.
Reads which funds hold the name and at what weight, plus insider Form 4 filings, to show the exposure you may already carry through index funds.
As of 2026-09-02T13:45:47.228469+00:00, the ETF with symbol IVV held ADM at a weight of 0.06% of that fund.
ETF constituents · market dataThis record documents ADM's inclusion in a major ETF (IVV) as of the timestamp above, which is factual exposure context rather than an evaluative judgment.
ETF constituents · market dataReads recent headlines that are genuinely about this company, ignoring rating chatter and market-wide stories. Findings argue in the debate but never move the sentiment score.
Headlines on 2 September 2026 highlight upward revisions to ADM's earnings estimates and frame that as potential upside for the stock.
News · zacks.com · 2026-09-02A finance outlet published a similar headline on 2 September 2026 noting that Archer Daniels Midland shares have started gaining and referencing solid earnings estimate revisions.
News · finance.yahoo.com · 2026-09-02Reads parsed Forms 3/4/5 — who bought or sold, at what size, and whether a 10b5-1 plan was involved. Flags clustered open-market officer buying; treats plan sales as routine and never counts a fund or 10%-holder as an officer.
No insider transactions on file in the trailing 180 days.
Reads the implied-expectations math built from the company's own filings (the growth rate today's price would justify, and the multiples beside it) and argues whether the market's bar looks high or low for this business. Never turns the math into a target.
Free cash flow for the trailing twelve months was -$2,242,000,000.
Valuation inputs · SEC XBRL + stored EOD closeNet cash provided by (used in) operating activities for the trailing twelve months was -$1,102,000,000.
Valuation inputs · SEC XBRL + stored EOD closeDebate and risk review
A bull and a bear contest the claims and the chair rules on each; the risk review stress-tests what survived.
A bull and a bear argue the analysts' claims across two rounds, then a chair rules on each one. Only what survives feeds the score — the argument is shown, not hidden, so you can judge the reasoning yourself.
The company-reported quarterly fundamentals (revenues, gross profit, net income, and diluted EPS) show strong sequential improvement, and these figures come from the company's filings, which is high-strength evidence for a materially better recent operating quarter. Capacity-expansion commentary and multiple news items noting earnings-estimate upgrades and rising analyst/owner interest provide corroborating market context consistent with that stronger quarter (medium-strength evidence). The negative trailing cash-flow and net-debt claims reflect weaker trailing-twelve-month liquidity metrics (high-strength accounting figures) but are backward-looking and may lag the recent earnings improvement; that makes them relevant but not fully dispositive about the most recent operating inflection (evidence strength: high for the numbers, medium for their current relevance). Taken together, the jointly supported claims point to a favorable read on recent operating momentum, while the primary contested points are the trailing free-cash-flow and net-debt metrics which require context versus the latest quarter-level improvements.
Chair's verdict, claim by claim
Fragility · computed, not argued
balanced0.30
21 surviving claims rest on 13 distinct sources; the heaviest analyst carries 38% of them, and 100% of what the desk raised survived the debate.
The read rests on a moderate breadth of sources but a meaningful concentration: one analyst produced 38% of the surviving claims and 100% of the desk's points survived debate, which raises the chance that shared assumptions or perspective drove consensus. Combined with only 13 distinct sources for 21 claims, the evidence can inform an educational view but should be weighted cautiously because analyst dependence and limited source diversity make the read more fragile to single-source corrections or alternative interpretations.
Disconfirming evidence · base rates · falsifiers
Context
Outside consensus, and where this name already sits in your own portfolio.
Third-party consensus shown for context. It never enters Moneyta sentiment — when the two diverge, the debate above is where the why lives.
What this was built from
Every figure on this page traces to one of these. The desk reads only what is listed here — no outside knowledge, no browsing — and each card shows who read it and what it contributed to the score.
14 filings· 2 cited
SEC XBRL filings
Quarterly figures as filed with the SEC, read straight from EDGAR's structured data — not retyped or estimated.
Read by Mercer+0.7 to the score
1 holdings record
Fund holdings
Which funds hold this name and at what weight, plus insider Form 4 filings.
Read by Ellis+1.0 to the score
8 headlines· 2 cited
News coverage
Recent headlines about this company, rating chatter excluded and nothing published after the report date.
Read by Yatesnothing survived
1 computation
Valuation inputs
TTM cash-flow figures from the company's own XBRL filings, priced with the stored closing price. Implied growth and multiples only; no fair-value dollar figure reaches the desk, by design.
Read by Archercontext only
1 record· 0 cited
Company profile
Sector, industry and company details.
1 record· 0 cited
Analyst consensus
Third-party consensus, shown for context only — it never enters Moneyta sentiment.
Read means we pulled and handed it to an analyst; cited means a claim on this page points at it. Reading twelve quarters to state one trend is normal — the gap is shown rather than hidden.
Written by AI, checked against sources
The analysts, the bull–bear debate and the editor's note are AI agents reading only the evidence listed on this page. They can misread a filing or a headline, which is why every claim cites a source you can open and check yourself. The sentiment score is arithmetic over the claims that survived the debate, not a language model's opinion.
Educational analysis of published data. Moneyta does not give investment advice or make recommendations. Past patterns do not indicate future results.
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The full terminal on ADM Gold
Who holds it, who's buying, what the Street thinks: live behind the lock, updated as filings land.
Institutional holders
Net institutional flow, Q/Q
Largest holder position
Insider buys, 90 days
Clustered insider value
Street target range
The real figures are for members. Educational analysis, not advice.
Educational analysis of published data. Moneyta does not give investment advice or make recommendations.