ADM
Archer-Daniels-Midland CompanyEvidence as of 2026-10-03The desk's Snapshot
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Overview · Archer-Daniels-Midland Company
Archer-Daniels-Midland Company procures, transports, stores, processes, and merchandises agricultural commodities, products, and ingredients in the United States, Switzerland, the Cayman Islands, Brazil, Mexico, Canada, the United Kingdom, and internationally. The company operates in three segments: Ag Services and Oilseeds, Carbohydrate Solutions, and Nutrition. It originates, merchandises, stores, and transports ag…
Management team
- Mr. Gregory A. Morris · Senior VP and President of Agricultural Services & OilseedsFind on LinkedIn
- Mr. Christopher M. Cuddy · Senior VP & President of Carbohydrate SolutionsFind on LinkedIn
- Mr. Ismael Roig · President of EMEA and President of Animal NutritionFind on LinkedIn
- Mr. Ian Robert Pinner · Senior VP, President of Nutrition and Chief Sales & Marketing OfficerFind on LinkedIn
Start free to see the full management team.
Links open LinkedIn searches, not verified profiles. Team data from our market-data vendor's company profile.
Moneyta sentiment
Where the published evidence leans after the desk debated it, not a rating or a recommendation.
−0.4 on a −2 to +2 scale.
What builds the score
Solid bars are analyst rubric scores; faded bars are computed directly from data. Claims dropped in debate count for nothing; weakened claims count at half weight.
Editor's note
Written after the debate settled. The rest of the page is the evidence behind it.
The desk rates the evidence balance as Cautious ( - 0.4 of a possible + 2; confidence high). Revenues rose to $ 22,681,000,000 in Q2 2026 (fiscal quarter ended 2026-07-30) from $ 20,490,000,000 in Q1 2026 (fiscal quarter ended 2026-04-30). Gross profit expanded to $ 1,935,000,000 in Q2 2026 from $ 1,222,000,000 in Q1 2026, implying gross margin movement from about 5.96% to about 8.53% across those quarters.
Net income increased to $ 908,000,000 in Q2 2026 from $ 298,000,000 in Q1 2026 and diluted EPS moved from $ 0.62 to $ 1.87. Common shares outstanding were essentially flat (about 481,000,000 reported; weighted-average diluted shares roughly 484,000,000 in Q1 2026 and 485,000,000 in Q2 2026). Trailing twelve-month GAAP free cash flow is negative $ 2,242,000,000 and trailing operating cash flow is negative $ 1,102,000,000 while capex for the trailing twelve months is $ 1,140,000,000; cash and equivalents were $ 1,060,000,000 as of 2026-06-30 and the dataset implies an enterprise value of $ 45,325,648,452.
How this note was made
every stage ran before the note was writtenAnalyst desk
Mercer, Oakes, Nash, Ellis, Yates, Talbot and Archer. The desk: named AI agents, not people. Each reads one slice of the evidence and nothing else (no outside knowledge, no browsing), so every finding traces to a source you can open.
Reads the XBRL figures companies file with the SEC (revenue, margins, income, debt and share count, quarter by quarter) and reports which way the trend is running.
Revenues increased to $22,681,000,000 in fiscal Q2 2026 (2026-04-01 to 2026-06-30, 3mo) from $20,490,000,000 in fiscal Q1 2026 (2026-01-01 to 2026-03-31, 3mo).
XBRL companyfacts · 0000007084-26-000042Gross profit expanded to $1,935,000,000 in fiscal Q2 2026 (2026-04-01 to 2026-06-30, 3mo) from $1,222,000,000 in fiscal Q1 2026 (2026-01-01 to 2026-03-31, 3mo), implying an increase in gross margin from about 5.96% (1,222,000,000 / 20,490,000,000) in fiscal Q1 2026 to about 8.53% (1,935,000,000 / 22,681,000,000) in fiscal Q2 2026.
XBRL companyfacts · 0000007084-26-000042Reads the filings themselves, above all the year-over-year diff of Item 1A risk factors: which risks a company added, dropped or quietly reworded since its last annual report.
Which filings the desk reads
The desk reads the annual 10-K in full: its risk factors, and how they changed since last year. Quarterly 10-Qs and event filings (8-Ks, insider Form 4s) are listed for context but not read line by line: the 10-K is where the material risk disclosures live. A brand-new company, or one we have only just begun tracking, may have no annual report on file yet; its risk analysis fills in once that lands.
The 10-K filed 17 February 2026 adds a broad "business disruption" risk that the Company is exposed to potential business disruption risks which could adversely affect operating results and could result in increased expenses and liabilities.
Item 1A risk-factor diff · 0000007084-26-000011 vs 0000007084-25-000011The 10-K filed 17 February 2026 adds language flagging execution risk around the Companys operational-excellence and cost-reduction plans, noting the Companys ability to improve its cost structure depends on reducing manufacturing, delivery and administrative costs and that success depends on a broad range of factors.
Item 1A risk-factor diff · 0000007084-26-000011 vs 0000007084-25-000011Reads the signal panel above (momentum, volatility, drawdown, relative strength and beta) and ranks each against the whole research universe rather than judging it in isolation.
No computed signal history for this symbol yet — signals need roughly 70 trading days of price history.
Reads which funds hold the name and at what weight, plus insider Form 4 filings, to show the exposure you may already carry through index funds.
Institutional 13F-reported holdings in ADM totalled "$31.74B" as of 2026-06-30 (the 13F reporting quarter ended 2026-06-30; 13F filings carry a 45-day reporting lag).
13F holdings · 1169 filers · as of 2026-06-30STATE FARM MUTUAL AUTOMOBILE INSURANCE CO was reported as a top holder with "$3.58B" in ADM as of 2026-06-30.
13F holdings · 1169 filers · as of 2026-06-30Reads recent headlines that are genuinely about this company, ignoring rating chatter and market-wide stories. Findings argue in the debate but never move the sentiment score.
A press release headline reports ADM and CJ CheilJedang agreed to form a new joint venture to strengthen amino acid production and supply chains (published October 02, 2026).
News · finance.yahoo.com · 2026-10-02Multiple items discuss ADM's involvement in carbon markets or carbon-credit sales, including a headline about ADM planning carbon-credit sales and an article questioning whether ADM's cash flow can support its carbon market story (published September 28–30, 2026).
News · insidermonkey.com · 2026-09-28Reads parsed Forms 3/4/5: who bought or sold, at what size, and whether a 10b5-1 plan was involved. Flags clustered open-market officer buying; treats plan sales as routine and never counts a fund or 10%-holder as an officer.
On 2026-09-08, Regina Jones (Senior Vice President) reported a disposition of 1,706 shares valued at "$144k" (action code "F").
Form 4 · Jones Regina (Senior Vice President) · $144k code F · 2026-09-08The filing shows no trading_plan flag (trading_plan: null) for this disposition in the reported Form 4.
Form 4 · Jones Regina (Senior Vice President) · $144k code F · 2026-09-08Reads the implied-expectations math built from the company's own filings (the growth rate today's price would justify, and the multiples beside it) and argues whether the market's bar looks high or low for this business. Never turns the math into a target.
As of the price date 2026-10-02 the share price used in this analysis was $80.45 and the market capitalization implied by that price was $38,773,648,452.
Valuation inputs · SEC XBRL + stored EOD closeTrailing twelve-month GAAP free cash flow (FCF) is negative $2,242,000,000 and free cash flow per share is negative $4.6227.
Valuation inputs · SEC XBRL + stored EOD closeDebate and risk review
A bull and a bear contest the claims and the chair rules on each; the risk review stress-tests what survived.
A bull and a bear argue the analysts' claims across two rounds, then a chair rules on each one. Only what survives feeds the score. The argument is shown, not hidden, so you can judge the reasoning yourself.
Quarter-to-quarter financials filed with the Company (10-Q) show clear operational improvement: revenue rose from $20.49B to $22.68B and gross profit expanded markedly, lifting gross margin from ~5.96% to ~8.53%, while net income and diluted EPS jumped from $298M/$0.62 to $908M/$1.87 — these are primary-source, strong (10-Q) indicators of recent margin and profitability recovery. Share count remained essentially flat and long-term debt was modestly lower across filings, supporting that the EPS improvement was not driven by aggressive buybacks or leverage changes (filings-level evidence: strong). Institutional 13F disclosures show sizable, diversified institutional ownership including large holders (BlackRock, State Farm), which is public, third-party evidence of professional investor interest (13F: moderate-to-strong). The bear points to negative trailing FCF and operating cash flow weakness in the valuation dataset; these are material concerns but rely on trailing twelve-month GAAP FCF and cash-flow aggregates that can lag or capture period timing differences, whereas the most recent quarterly filings reveal improving reported net income and margins (valuation negatives: solid data but possibly time-lagged; recent filings: stronger contemporaneous evidence). Company risk-factor expansions in the 10-K (cybersecurity, ESG/CCS, execution risk) are legitimate and documented risks (10-K: strong); however, the combination of improving quarter-level fundamentals and institutional ownership constitutes a jointly favorable read when weighing recent operational momentum against those documented risks.
Chair's verdict, claim by claim
Fragility · computed, not argued
balanced0.35
28 surviving claims rest on 12 distinct sources; the heaviest analyst carries 21% of them, and 100% of what the desk raised survived the debate.
The evidence set is moderately robust: 28 surviving claims drawn from a dozen distinct sources gives breadth, but a single analyst carrying about one-fifth of the influence and a 100% survival rate in the desk debate suggest possible confirmation concentration and low internal pushback. Key operational and valuation claims rest on recent SEC filings and a valuation model; those sources strengthen factual assertions but also mean the read bears fragility if those filings are revised or if the valuation inputs change materially.
Disconfirming evidence · base rates · falsifiers
Context
Outside consensus, and where this name already sits in your own portfolio.
Third-party consensus shown for context. It never enters Moneyta sentiment. When the two diverge, the debate above is where the why lives.
What this was built from
Every figure on this page traces to one of these. The desk reads only what is listed here (no outside knowledge, no browsing), and each card shows who read it and what it contributed to the score.
14 filings· 2 cited
SEC XBRL filings
Quarterly figures as filed with the SEC, read straight from EDGAR's structured data, not retyped or estimated.
Read by Mercer+0.6 to the score
12 documents· 2 cited
SEC filing documents
The filings themselves, including the year-over-year comparison of Item 1A risk factors.
Read by Oakes−0.8 to the score
3 holdings records· 1 cited
Fund holdings
Which funds hold this name and at what weight, plus insider Form 4 filings.
Read by Ellis+0.6 to the score
8 headlines· 2 cited
News coverage
Recent headlines about this company, rating chatter excluded and nothing published after the report date.
Read by Yatesnothing survived
1 filing
Insider filings
Parsed Forms 3/4/5 from EDGAR: named insiders, share counts, prices, and 10b5-1 plan state, with stated and inferred flags kept apart.
Read by Talbot−0.5 to the score
1 computation
Valuation inputs
TTM cash-flow figures from the company's own XBRL filings, priced with the stored closing price. Implied growth and multiples only; no fair-value dollar figure reaches the desk, by design.
Read by Archercontext only
1 record· 0 cited
Company profile
Sector, industry and company details.
1 record· 0 cited
Analyst consensus
Third-party consensus, shown for context only; it never enters Moneyta sentiment.
Read means we pulled and handed it to an analyst; cited means a claim on this page points at it. Reading twelve quarters to state one trend is normal; the gap is shown rather than hidden.
Written by AI, checked against sources
The analysts, the bull–bear debate and the editor's note are AI agents reading only the evidence listed on this page. They can misread a filing or a headline, which is why every claim cites a source you can open and check yourself. The sentiment score is arithmetic over the claims that survived the debate, not a language model's opinion.
Educational analysis of published data. Moneyta does not give investment advice or make recommendations. Past patterns do not indicate future results.
The full terminal on ADM Gold
Who holds it, who's buying, what the Street thinks: live behind the lock, updated as filings land.
Institutional holders
Net institutional flow, Q/Q
Largest holder position
Insider buys, 90 days
Clustered insider value
Street target range
The real figures are for members. Educational analysis, not advice.
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