ADP
Automatic Data Processing, Inc.Evidence as of 2026-09-09The desk's Snapshot
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Overview · Automatic Data Processing, Inc.
Automatic Data Processing, Inc. provides cloud-based human capital management solutions worldwide. It operates in two segments, Employer Services and Professional Employer Organization (PEO). The Employer Services segment offers strategic, cloud-based platforms, and human resources (HR) outsourcing solutions. Its offerings include payroll, benefits administration, talent management, HR management, workforce managemen…
Management team
- Mr. David Foskett · President of Global SalesFind on LinkedIn
- Mr. Matthew John Keating C.F.A. · Vice President of Investor RelationsFind on LinkedIn
- Mr. John C. Ayala · Corporate OfficerFind on LinkedIn
- Mr. Joseph DeSilva Jr. · Executive VP of North America & Chief of OperationsFind on LinkedIn
Start free to see the full management team.
Links open LinkedIn searches, not verified profiles. Team data from our market-data vendor's company profile.
Moneyta sentiment
Where the published evidence leans after the desk debated it, not a rating or a recommendation.
−0.4 on a −2 to +2 scale.
What builds the score
Solid bars are analyst rubric scores; faded bars are computed directly from data. Claims dropped in debate count for nothing; weakened claims count at half weight.
Editor's note
Written after the debate settled. The rest of the page is the evidence behind it.
The evidence balance is Cautious ( -0.4 ) with high confidence. Revenue from contracts rose across the reported fiscal quarters to $ 5,939,200,000 in Q3 2026 (fiscal quarter ended 2026-04-27) from $ 5,175,200,000 in Q1 2026 (fiscal quarter ended 2025-10-28), while net income increased to $ 1,359,800,000 in Q3 2026 from $ 1,013,000,000 in Q1 2026 and diluted EPS rose to $ 3.38 from $ 2.49 over the same span.
Common shares outstanding declined from 405,043,142 as of FY 2025 (fiscal quarter ended 2025-08-01) to 397,262,737 as of FY 2026 (fiscal quarter ended 2026-07-31), and the company reported cash paid for share repurchases of $ 642,300,000 in fiscal Q1 2026 (2025-07-01 to 2025-09-30, 3mo). Long-term noncurrent debt reported jumped to $ 4,964,100,000 as of 2026-06-30 while cash and cash equivalents moved from $ 2,478,000,000 as of 2025-09-30 to $ 4,230,100,000 as of 2026-06-30.
How this note was made
every stage ran before the note was writtenAnalyst desk
Mercer, Oakes, Nash, Ellis, Yates, Talbot and Archer. The desk: named AI agents, not people. Each reads one slice of the evidence and nothing else (no outside knowledge, no browsing), so every finding traces to a source you can open.
Reads the XBRL figures companies file with the SEC (revenue, margins, income, debt and share count, quarter by quarter) and reports which way the trend is running.
Revenue from contracts: $5,175,200,000 in fiscal Q1 2026 (2025-07-01 to 2025-09-30, 3mo), $5,359,300,000 in fiscal Q2 2026 (2025-10-01 to 2025-12-31, 3mo), and $5,939,200,000 in fiscal Q3 2026 (2026-01-01 to 2026-03-31, 3mo).
XBRL companyfacts · 0000008670-25-000047Net income increased across the same quarters: $1,013,000,000 in fiscal Q1 2026 (3mo), $1,062,000,000 in fiscal Q2 2026 (3mo), and $1,359,800,000 in fiscal Q3 2026 (3mo).
XBRL companyfacts · 0000008670-26-000022Reads the filings themselves, above all the year-over-year diff of Item 1A risk factors: which risks a company added, dropped or quietly reworded since its last annual report.
Which filings the desk reads
The desk reads the annual 10-K in full: its risk factors, and how they changed since last year. Quarterly 10-Qs and event filings (8-Ks, insider Form 4s) are listed for context but not read line by line: the 10-K is where the material risk disclosures live. A brand-new company, or one we have only just begun tracking, may have no annual report on file yet; its risk analysis fills in once that lands.
The 10-K filed 5 August 2026 adds a risk that ADP's PEO operates as a co-employer and Certified PEO and therefore "may be subject to certain obligations, responsibilities and liabilities of an employer with respect to Worksite Employees ("WSE"), including with respect to their wages and the payment thereof, tax credits for employers, the payment of certain taxes with respect to WSE wages and employee benefits provided to the WSEs," and notes clients may fail to remit such payments.
Item 1A risk-factor diff · 0000008670-26-000030 vs 0000008670-25-000037The 10-K filed 5 August 2026 states that ADP's PEO must qualify as the employer of WSEs under certain Internal Revenue Code and ERISA provisions to sponsor many benefit plan offerings, and that the legal definition of "employer" is not uniform which could require ADP's PEO to modify its business model or face material fines or penalties if plans fail to satisfy requirements.
Item 1A risk-factor diff · 0000008670-26-000030 vs 0000008670-25-000037Reads the signal panel above (momentum, volatility, drawdown, relative strength and beta) and ranks each against the whole research universe rather than judging it in isolation.
Over the 6-month horizon the price momentum is +22.0% and ranks in the 79th percentile of the 548-stock research universe as of 2026-09-08.
Moneyta signal set · 2026-09-08The 12-month-minus-1-month momentum series is -7.6% and the corresponding cross-sectional rank is the 23th percentile of 548 as of 2026-09-08.
Moneyta signal set · 2026-09-08Reads which funds hold the name and at what weight, plus insider Form 4 filings, to show the exposure you may already carry through index funds.
As of 2026-09-02, ADP appears as a holding in multiple broad ETFs with reported fund weights including 0.67% in VYM, 0.45% in IWF, 0.24% in VOO, 0.24% in SCHX, 0.23% in SCHB and 0.14% in IVV.
ETF constituents · market data13F-reported institutional holdings total $63.3M as of the reporting period ended 2026-03-31 (13F filings carry a 45-day reporting lag).
13F holdings · 4 filers · as of 2026-03-31Reads recent headlines that are genuinely about this company, ignoring rating chatter and market-wide stories. Findings argue in the debate but never move the sentiment score.
On 8 September 2026, Zacks and a Yahoo Finance-syndicated piece ran the same headline asserting that investors 'must hold' ADP, citing factors such as strong bookings, 92.1% retention, AI-driven margin gains and robust capital returns.
News · zacks.com · 2026-09-08weakened in debateOn 8 September 2026, a Yahoo Finance item and a PR Newswire release reported an expanded strategic partnership between ADP and Amazon Web Services to accelerate AI-powered innovation in human capital management.
News · finance.yahoo.com · 2026-09-08Reads parsed Forms 3/4/5: who bought or sold, at what size, and whether a 10b5-1 plan was involved. Flags clustered open-market officer buying; treats plan sales as routine and never counts a fund or 10%-holder as an officer.
Maria Black (President & CEO) reported multiple open-market sales on 2026-09-02 totaling at least "$3.0M" for "10591" shares in a filing that aggregates many individual disposals.
Form 4 · Black Maria (President & CEO) · $60k sold · 2026-09-02The same filing for Maria Black (insider:ADP:the 4 filed 3 September 2026) states the transactions were executed pursuant to a 10b5-1 plan (the 10b5-1 plan indication is shown on that filing).
Form 4 · Black Maria (President & CEO) · $60k sold · 2026-09-02Reads the implied-expectations math built from the company's own filings (the growth rate today's price would justify, and the multiples beside it) and argues whether the market's bar looks high or low for this business. Never turns the math into a target.
The trailing twelve-month price-to-earnings ratio is 23.2 as of the price on 2026-09-08.
Valuation inputs · SEC XBRL + stored EOD closeMarket capitalization is $106,450,523,007 and enterprise value is $102,255,923,007 (price date 2026-09-08).
Valuation inputs · SEC XBRL + stored EOD closeDebate and risk review
A bull and a bear contest the claims and the chair rules on each; the risk review stress-tests what survived.
A bull and a bear argue the analysts' claims across two rounds, then a chair rules on each one. Only what survives feeds the score. The argument is shown, not hidden, so you can judge the reasoning yourself.
Strong, sequential operating results—quarterly revenue growth, rising net income, and increasing diluted EPS across three reported fiscal quarters—constitute robust direct evidence of improving core profitability (strong evidence). Concurrent share-count reduction and disclosed share repurchases materially support per-share earnings leverage and capital-return discipline (moderate-strong evidence). Cash and cash equivalents have increased meaningfully alongside positive operating cash flow for the trailing twelve months, which bolsters liquidity and the capacity to fund buybacks and investments (moderate evidence). While the 10-K expands on regulatory, data/privacy and payroll-processing risks and long-term noncurrent debt rose on a year-over-year point-in-time basis, management also highlights AI deployments and broad ADP Assist rollout to 1.1M+ clients in MD&A—this operational progress (as reported) directly addresses revenue and margin drivers and rebuts framing risk items as purely constraining rather than paired with growth initiatives (mixed-strength evidence). Market positioning signals—positive 6-month momentum, price above 50/200-day SMAs, dividend yield with multi-year growth, and inclusion in broad ETFs—add supportive market-context evidence of investor appetite (moderate evidence).
Chair's verdict, claim by claim
Fragility · computed, not argued
balanced0.32
40 surviving claims rest on 19 distinct sources; the heaviest analyst carries 18% of them, and 95% of what the desk raised survived the debate.
The evidence base is moderately concentrated: 40 surviving claims rely on 19 distinct sources, so multiple claims draw from the same documents and a few sources carry disproportionate influence. The largest analyst contribution (18%) and a 95% debate survival rate indicate the desk’s conclusions are cohesive but somewhat dependent on a small set of inputs, so treat the read as informative but fragile to new or contradictory filings or high‑quality sources.
Peer context · computed, not argued
12-1 momentum ranks 1st of 2 in Staffing & Employment Services (as of 2026-09-08).
90-day volatility ranks 2nd of 2 in Staffing & Employment Services (as of 2026-09-08).
dividend yield ranks 2nd of 2 in Staffing & Employment Services (as of 2026-09-08).
Disconfirming evidence · base rates · falsifiers
Context
Outside consensus, and where this name already sits in your own portfolio.
Third-party consensus shown for context. It never enters Moneyta sentiment. When the two diverge, the debate above is where the why lives.
What this was built from
Every figure on this page traces to one of these. The desk reads only what is listed here (no outside knowledge, no browsing), and each card shows who read it and what it contributed to the score.
9 filings· 3 cited
SEC XBRL filings
Quarterly figures as filed with the SEC, read straight from EDGAR's structured data, not retyped or estimated.
Read by Mercer+0.7 to the score
12 documents· 2 cited
SEC filing documents
The filings themselves, including the year-over-year comparison of Item 1A risk factors.
Read by Oakes−0.6 to the score
1 signal set
Moneyta signal set
Computed from our own end-of-day price history and ranked against the whole research universe. No AI involved.
Read by Nash+0.2 to the score
3 holdings records· 2 cited
Fund holdings
Which funds hold this name and at what weight, plus insider Form 4 filings.
Read by Ellis+0.1 to the score
8 headlines· 2 cited
News coverage
Recent headlines about this company, rating chatter excluded and nothing published after the report date.
Read by Yatesnothing survived
7 filings· 1 cited
Insider filings
Parsed Forms 3/4/5 from EDGAR: named insiders, share counts, prices, and 10b5-1 plan state, with stated and inferred flags kept apart.
Read by Talbot−0.8 to the score
1 computation
Valuation inputs
TTM cash-flow figures from the company's own XBRL filings, priced with the stored closing price. Implied growth and multiples only; no fair-value dollar figure reaches the desk, by design.
Read by Archercontext only
1 record· 0 cited
Company profile
Sector, industry and company details.
1 record· 0 cited
Analyst consensus
Third-party consensus, shown for context only; it never enters Moneyta sentiment.
Read means we pulled and handed it to an analyst; cited means a claim on this page points at it. Reading twelve quarters to state one trend is normal; the gap is shown rather than hidden.
Written by AI, checked against sources
The analysts, the bull–bear debate and the editor's note are AI agents reading only the evidence listed on this page. They can misread a filing or a headline, which is why every claim cites a source you can open and check yourself. The sentiment score is arithmetic over the claims that survived the debate, not a language model's opinion.
Educational analysis of published data. Moneyta does not give investment advice or make recommendations. Past patterns do not indicate future results.
The full terminal on ADP Gold
Who holds it, who's buying, what the Street thinks: live behind the lock, updated as filings land.
Institutional holders
Net institutional flow, Q/Q
Largest holder position
Insider buys, 90 days
Clustered insider value
Street target range
The real figures are for members. Educational analysis, not advice.
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