AES
Evidence as of 2026-09-02Overview · AES CORP
The AES Corporation operates as a diversified power generation and utility company. It owns and/or operates power plants to generate and sell power to customers, such as utilities, industrial users, and other intermediaries. The company also owns and/or operates utilities to generate or purchase, distribute, transmit, and sell electricity to end-user customers in the residential, commercial, industrial, and governmen…
Management team
- Mr. Juan Ignacio Rubiolo · Executive VP & President of Energy InfrastructureFind on LinkedIn
- Mr. Bernerd Da Santos · Executive VP and President of US & RenewablesFind on LinkedIn
- Mr. Ricardo Manuel Falu · Executive VP, COO & President of New Energy TechnologiesFind on LinkedIn
- Mr. Stephen Coughlin · Executive VP & CFOFind on LinkedIn
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Links open LinkedIn searches, not verified profiles. Team data from our market-data vendor's company profile.
Moneyta sentiment
Where the published evidence leans after the desk debated it — not a rating or a recommendation.
+0.2 on a −2 to +2 scale.
What builds the score
Solid bars are analyst rubric scores; faded bars are computed directly from data. Claims dropped in debate count for nothing; weakened claims count at half weight.
Editor's note
Written after the debate settled — the rest of the page is the evidence behind it.
What the evidence shows
The evidence balance is Mixed (+ 0.2 of a possible + 2; confidence high). Revenues rose from 3,180,000,000 in Q1 2026 (fiscal quarter ended 2026-05-01) to 3,422,000,000 in Q2 2026 (fiscal quarter ended 2026-07-31), while gross profit ticked up from 640,000,000 to 692,000,000, implying gross margin moved from about 20.1% to about 20.2% on those quarter revenues. Net income fell from 487,000,000 in Q1 2026 to 426,000,000 in Q2 2026 and diluted EPS dropped from 0.68 to 0.60 on essentially stable diluted shares outstanding at 715,000,000; cash and cash equivalents on the balance sheet rose from $1,382,000,000 as of 2025-12-31 to $1,800,000,000 as of 2026-06-30. Market measures show low systematic sensitivity (beta 0.43), very low volatility (30-day ann. vol 2.7%), a trailing twelve-month dividend yield of + 4.77%, and valuation datapoints include price 14.77, market cap $10,537,488,565, trailing twelve-month EPS 2.02 and P/E 7.31; trailing twelve-month FCF is negative $4,061,000,000.
What the debate changed
The desk debated momentum and technical framing: the momentum signals were marked as weakened in the review (momentum_3m + 1.8%, momentum_6m + 6.7%, momentum_12_1 + 19.0%), but that change did not alter the overall balance, which remained Mixed at + 0.2. No surviving fundamental claim was dropped and the core accounting and balance-sheet points—revenue, gross profit, net income, EPS, reported cash—were upheld, so the debate shifted some emphasis but did not materially change the read.
How this note was made
every stage ran before the note was writtenAnalyst desk
Mercer, Oakes, Nash, Ellis, Yates, Talbot and Archer. The desk: named AI agents, not people. Each reads one slice of the evidence and nothing else — no outside knowledge, no browsing — so every finding traces to a source you can open.
Reads the XBRL figures companies file with the SEC — revenue, margins, income, debt and share count, quarter by quarter — and reports which way the trend is running.
Revenues rose from $3,180,000,000 in fiscal Q1 2026 (2026-01-01 to 2026-03-31, 3mo) to $3,422,000,000 in fiscal Q2 2026 (2026-04-01 to 2026-06-30, 3mo).
XBRL companyfacts · 0000874761-26-000120Gross profit increased slightly from $640,000,000 in fiscal Q1 2026 (2026-01-01 to 2026-03-31, 3mo) to $692,000,000 in fiscal Q2 2026 (2026-04-01 to 2026-06-30, 3mo), implying gross margin moved from about 20.1% to about 20.2% using the reported revenues for those quarters.
XBRL companyfacts · 0000874761-26-000144Reads the filings themselves, above all the year-over-year diff of Item 1A risk factors: which risks a company added, dropped or quietly reworded since its last annual report.
Which filings the desk reads
The desk reads the annual 10-K in full — its risk factors, and how they changed since last year. Quarterly 10-Qs and event filings (8-Ks, insider Form 4s) are listed for context but not read line by line: the 10-K is where the material risk disclosures live. A brand-new company, or one we have only just begun tracking, may have no annual report on file yet — its risk analysis fills in once that lands.
An 8-K for AES was filed on 2026-08-27 (the 8-K filed 27 August 2026).
8-K filed 2026-08-27The filing record shows parse_status listed as "pending", indicating the filing's contents are not available in the provided evidence set for detailed review.
8-K filed 2026-08-27Reads the signal panel above — momentum, volatility, drawdown, relative strength and beta — and ranks each against the whole research universe rather than judging it in isolation.
Beta versus SPY is 0.43, indicating lower systematic sensitivity to the S&P 500 than a typical market-beta stock.
Moneyta signal set · 2026-09-01Correlation with SPY is 0.17, showing very low co-movement with the index over the measurement period.
Moneyta signal set · 2026-09-01Reads which funds hold the name and at what weight, plus insider Form 4 filings, to show the exposure you may already carry through index funds.
As of 1 September 2026, AES appears as a holding in Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO) at 0.02% weight of that fund.
ETF constituents · market dataAs of 1 September 2026, AES appears as a holding in iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV) at 0.02% weight of that fund.
ETF constituents · market dataReads recent headlines that are genuinely about this company, ignoring rating chatter and market-wide stories. Findings argue in the debate but never move the sentiment score.
Moore Capital Management LP increased its stake in The AES Corporation by 26.1% to 340,407 shares in the second quarter, acquiring an additional 70,407 shares, according to a report dated 1 September 2026.
News · thelincolnianonline.com · 2026-09-01Rakuten Investment Management Inc. purchased a new position of 75,611 shares in The AES Corporation in the second quarter, as reported 31 August 2026.
News · thelincolnianonline.com · 2026-08-31Reads parsed Forms 3/4/5 — who bought or sold, at what size, and whether a 10b5-1 plan was involved. Flags clustered open-market officer buying; treats plan sales as routine and never counts a fund or 10%-holder as an officer.
No insider transactions on file in the trailing 180 days.
Reads the implied-expectations math built from the company's own filings (the growth rate today's price would justify, and the multiples beside it) and argues whether the market's bar looks high or low for this business. Never turns the math into a target.
The share price used in this valuation is 14.77 and the reported market capitalization is 10,537,488,565.
Valuation inputs · SEC XBRL + stored EOD closeTrailing twelve-month free cash flow (FCF) is negative 4,061,000,000 and FCF per share is negative 5.6797.
Valuation inputs · SEC XBRL + stored EOD closeDebate and risk review
A bull and a bear contest the claims and the chair rules on each; the risk review stress-tests what survived.
A bull and a bear argue the analysts' claims across two rounds, then a chair rules on each one. Only what survives feeds the score — the argument is shown, not hidden, so you can judge the reasoning yourself.
Several company-specific and market signals in the provided evidence jointly support a favorable read. Revenues and gross profit rose sequentially in Q2 2026 while shares outstanding were stable and cash increased meaningfully, which together suggest improving top-line momentum and stronger near-term liquidity (company filings). Market-position indicators — low beta and correlation with the S&P, high trailing dividend yield, positive multi-horizon momentum, price above key moving averages with a long-standing golden cross, and extremely low realized volatility — point to a lower-risk, income-oriented equity profile that has attracted fresh institutional purchases and notable transaction-level news (CFIUS approval for a merger) in late August 2026. These items, combined with a low reported P/E, create a cohesively constructive interpretation of the available evidence. Evidence strength varies across claims (see contested and supported lists).
Chair's verdict, claim by claim
Fragility · computed, not argued
balanced0.37
34 surviving claims rest on 14 distinct sources; the heaviest analyst carries 24% of them, and 97% of what the desk raised survived the debate.
The read rests on a moderate breadth of sources (14) supporting 34 claims, which gives some information diversity, but one analyst accounts for nearly a quarter of the surviving claims and the desk’s debate process left almost everything standing. That combination raises the risk that systematic blind spots or analyst-specific framing may be overweighted despite apparent source coverage, so treat the signals as informational input rather than a definitive consensus.
Disconfirming evidence · base rates · falsifiers
Context
Outside consensus, and where this name already sits in your own portfolio.
Third-party consensus shown for context. It never enters Moneyta sentiment — when the two diverge, the debate above is where the why lives.
What this was built from
Every figure on this page traces to one of these. The desk reads only what is listed here — no outside knowledge, no browsing — and each card shows who read it and what it contributed to the score.
18 filings· 2 cited
SEC XBRL filings
Quarterly figures as filed with the SEC, read straight from EDGAR's structured data — not retyped or estimated.
Read by Mercer+0.2 to the score
1 document
SEC filing documents
The filings themselves, including the year-over-year comparison of Item 1A risk factors.
Read by Oakes+0.0 to the score
1 signal set
Moneyta signal set
Computed from our own end-of-day price history and ranked against the whole research universe. No AI involved.
Read by Nash+0.7 to the score
2 holdings records· 1 cited
Fund holdings
Which funds hold this name and at what weight, plus insider Form 4 filings.
Read by Ellis+0.0 to the score
8 headlines· 2 cited
News coverage
Recent headlines about this company, rating chatter excluded and nothing published after the report date.
Read by Yatesnothing survived
1 computation
Valuation inputs
TTM cash-flow figures from the company's own XBRL filings, priced with the stored closing price. Implied growth and multiples only; no fair-value dollar figure reaches the desk, by design.
Read by Archercontext only
1 record· 0 cited
Analyst consensus
Third-party consensus, shown for context only — it never enters Moneyta sentiment.
Read means we pulled and handed it to an analyst; cited means a claim on this page points at it. Reading twelve quarters to state one trend is normal — the gap is shown rather than hidden.
Written by AI, checked against sources
The analysts, the bull–bear debate and the editor's note are AI agents reading only the evidence listed on this page. They can misread a filing or a headline, which is why every claim cites a source you can open and check yourself. The sentiment score is arithmetic over the claims that survived the debate, not a language model's opinion.
Educational analysis of published data. Moneyta does not give investment advice or make recommendations. Past patterns do not indicate future results.
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The full terminal on AES Gold
Who holds it, who's buying, what the Street thinks: live behind the lock, updated as filings land.
Institutional holders
Net institutional flow, Q/Q
Largest holder position
Insider buys, 90 days
Clustered insider value
Street target range
The real figures are for members. Educational analysis, not advice.
Educational analysis of published data. Moneyta does not give investment advice or make recommendations.