AFL
Aflac IncorporatedEvidence as of 2026-10-02The desk's Snapshot
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Overview · Aflac Incorporated
Aflac Incorporated, through its subsidiaries, provides supplemental health and life insurance products. It operates in two segments, Aflac Japan and Aflac U.S. The Aflac Japan segment offers cancer, medical, nursing care, work leave, GIFT, and whole and term life insurance products, as well as WAYS and child endowment plans under saving type insurance products in Japan. The Aflac U.S. segment provides cancer, acciden…
Management team
- Mr. Steven Kent Beaver · Executive VP, CFO & Chief Risk Officer of Aflac JapanFind on LinkedIn
- Ms. Audrey Boone Tillman Esq. · Senior EVP, & General CounselFind on LinkedIn
- Mr. Bradley Eugene Dyslin C.F.A. · Executive VP, Global Chief Investment Officer & President of Aflac Global InvestmentsFind on LinkedIn
- Mr. Max Kristian Broden C.F.A. · Senior EVP & CFOFind on LinkedIn
Start free to see the full management team.
Links open LinkedIn searches, not verified profiles. Team data from our market-data vendor's company profile.
Moneyta sentiment
Where the published evidence leans after the desk debated it, not a rating or a recommendation.
−0.4 on a −2 to +2 scale.
What builds the score
Solid bars are analyst rubric scores; faded bars are computed directly from data. Claims dropped in debate count for nothing; weakened claims count at half weight.
Editor's note
Written after the debate settled. The rest of the page is the evidence behind it.
The surviving evidence establishes a cautious read (evidence balance Cautious, -0.4) with high confidence. Reported revenues moved from $ 3.398B in fiscal Q1 2025 (fiscal quarter ended 2025-04-29) to $ 4.16B in fiscal Q2 2025 (fiscal quarter ended 2025-07-28), $ 4.74B in fiscal Q3 2025 (fiscal quarter ended 2025-10-27), then $ 4.346B in Q1 2026 (fiscal quarter ended 2026-04-28) and $ 4.117B in Q2 2026 (fiscal quarter ended 2026-07-28). Diluted EPS and net income show the same cadence: diluted EPS of $ 0.05, $ 1.11, $ 3.08, $ 1.98 and $ 1.63 across those five quarters, and net income of $ 29.0M, $ 599.0M, $ 1,639.0M, $ 1,019.0M and $ 825.0M respectively.
The balance sheet and capital activity are consistent with active repurchases: shares outstanding fell from 540,645,028 on 2025-04-29 to 501,343,298 on 2026-07-28 while cash repurchases included $ 900.0M in the quarter ended 2025-03-31 and $ 1,000.0M in the quarter ended 2026-03-31. Cash and cash equivalents are reported at about $ 6.965B on 2025-06-30 (one filing) and $ 6.12B on 2026-06-30; market capitalization is reported at $ 55,739,347,872 with price $ 111.18 as of 2026-10-01 and a trailing twelve‑month P/E of 14.25. Filings also add concentrated risk language: Aflac Japan accounted for 53% of adjusted revenues in 2025 and 76% of total assets at December 31, 2025, and the Form 10‑K emphasized exposures to JGB concentration, FX hedge cash‑settlement needs, and vulnerability in long‑dated JPY fixed income.
How this note was made
every stage ran before the note was writtenAnalyst desk
Mercer, Oakes, Nash, Ellis, Yates, Talbot and Archer. The desk: named AI agents, not people. Each reads one slice of the evidence and nothing else (no outside knowledge, no browsing), so every finding traces to a source you can open.
Reads the XBRL figures companies file with the SEC (revenue, margins, income, debt and share count, quarter by quarter) and reports which way the trend is running.
Reported revenues were $3.398B in fiscal Q1 2025 (2025-01-01 to 2025-03-31), $4.16B in fiscal Q2 2025 (2025-04-01 to 2025-06-30), $4.74B in fiscal Q3 2025 (2025-07-01 to 2025-09-30), $4.346B in fiscal Q1 2026 (2026-01-01 to 2026-03-31) and $4.117B in fiscal Q2 2026 (2026-04-01 to 2026-06-30).
XBRL companyfacts · 0000004977-25-000075Diluted earnings per share were $0.05 in fiscal Q1 2025 (2025-01-01 to 2025-03-31), $1.11 in fiscal Q2 2025 (2025-04-01 to 2025-06-30), $3.08 in fiscal Q3 2025 (2025-07-01 to 2025-09-30), $1.98 in fiscal Q1 2026 (2026-01-01 to 2026-03-31) and $1.63 in fiscal Q2 2026 (2026-04-01 to 2026-06-30).
XBRL companyfacts · 0001628280-25-049279Reads the filings themselves, above all the year-over-year diff of Item 1A risk factors: which risks a company added, dropped or quietly reworded since its last annual report.
Which filings the desk reads
The desk reads the annual 10-K in full: its risk factors, and how they changed since last year. Quarterly 10-Qs and event filings (8-Ks, insider Form 4s) are listed for context but not read line by line: the 10-K is where the material risk disclosures live. A brand-new company, or one we have only just begun tracking, may have no annual report on file yet; its risk analysis fills in once that lands.
The Form 10-K filed 25 February 2026 adds risk-language emphasizing that the Company's results are materially affected by conditions in global capital markets and the global economy, and restates that inflation remains elevated with the risk of a return to increasing inflation alongside weakening economic conditions.
Item 1A risk-factor diff · 0001628280-26-011402 vs 0000004977-25-000047The Form 10-K filed 25 February 2026 adds risk disclosures calling out concentration risk in Japan Government Bonds (JGBs) and the lack of available long‑dated Japanese yen‑denominated fixed income instruments beyond JGBs as a notable vulnerability for Aflac Japan's investment and regulatory capital profile.
Item 1A risk-factor diff · 0001628280-26-011402 vs 0000004977-25-000047Reads the signal panel above (momentum, volatility, drawdown, relative strength and beta) and ranks each against the whole research universe rather than judging it in isolation.
No computed signal history for this symbol yet — signals need roughly 70 trading days of price history.
Reads which funds hold the name and at what weight, plus insider Form 4 filings, to show the exposure you may already carry through index funds.
As of the 13F reporting period ended 2026-06-30, reported institutional holdings in AFL totaled "$40.26B" across 1,708 holders.
13F holdings · 1708 filers · as of 2026-06-30Top reported institutional holders in the 13F for the period ended 2026-06-30 include Japan Post Holdings Co., Ltd. ($5.97B), BlackRock, Inc. ($4.09B), VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC ($3.51B), VANGUARD PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT LLC ($2.86B), and STATE STREET CORP ($2.76B).
13F holdings · 1708 filers · as of 2026-06-30Reads recent headlines that are genuinely about this company, ignoring rating chatter and market-wide stories. Findings argue in the debate but never move the sentiment score.
Multiple recent headlines report Japan Post Holdings executing sales that reduced its Aflac stake under a Rule 10b5-1 plan.
News · kalkinemedia.com · 2026-10-01A separate article with the same theme states Japan Post Holdings executed two trades to reduce its Aflac stake under a Rule 10b5-1 plan.
News · kalkinemedia.com · 2026-09-25Reads parsed Forms 3/4/5: who bought or sold, at what size, and whether a 10b5-1 plan was involved. Flags clustered open-market officer buying; treats plan sales as routine and never counts a fund or 10%-holder as an officer.
Masatoshi Koide (President and Representative Director, ALIJ) acquired 3,201 shares valued at "$114k" on 2026-09-16 (action code M) per the filing.
Form 4 · Koide Masatoshi (Pres. and Rep. Director, ALIJ) · $114k code M · 2026-09-16weakened in debateMasatoshi Koide (President and Representative Director, ALIJ) reported two sales on 2026-09-16: 3,201 shares for "$377k" and 10,000 shares for "$1.2M" in the same filing.
Form 4 · Koide Masatoshi (Pres. and Rep. Director, ALIJ) · $114k code M · 2026-09-16Reads the implied-expectations math built from the company's own filings (the growth rate today's price would justify, and the multiples beside it) and argues whether the market's bar looks high or low for this business. Never turns the math into a target.
The price used in this analysis is $111.18 as of 2026-10-01.
Valuation inputs · SEC XBRL + stored EOD closeThe trailing twelve‑month price-to-earnings ratio (P/E TTM) is 14.25 based on reported inputs.
Valuation inputs · SEC XBRL + stored EOD closeDebate and risk review
A bull and a bear contest the claims and the chair rules on each; the risk review stress-tests what survived.
A bull and a bear argue the analysts' claims across two rounds, then a chair rules on each one. Only what survives feeds the score. The argument is shown, not hidden, so you can judge the reasoning yourself.
The evidence set shows multiple, concrete indicators that support a constructive interpretation: material share repurchases (fundamentals-4) align with a steady decline in shares outstanding (fundamentals-3), strengthening per‑share metrics while filings report multi-quarter positive net income and EPS (fundamentals-2, fundamentals-1) with meaningful operating cash generation and positive trailing operating income and OCF TTM (valuation-2, valuation-3). Institutional ownership is large and rising in reported value and holder count (ownership-0, ownership-2), and AFL appears as a notable holding in several large portfolios and ETFs (ownership-1, ownership-3, news-5), which is consistent with broad institutional participation. The bear points around concentration and macro risks (filings-0 through filings-4) are documented risk disclosures, but they are disclosures of exposures rather than counterevidence to the company’s demonstrated buyback activity, earnings history, cash balances, and institutional support. Evidence strength: share-repurchase and shares-outstanding items are direct, high-strength filings (fundamentals-3, fundamentals-4); reported earnings, net income and cash-flow metrics are medium-high strength financial disclosures (fundamentals-1, fundamentals-2, valuation-3); institutional holding and ETF membership entries are medium-strength third‑party reporting (ownership-0 through ownership-3).
Chair's verdict, claim by claim
Fragility · computed, not argued
diversified0.26
33 surviving claims rest on 20 distinct sources; the heaviest analyst carries 18% of them, and 94% of what the desk raised survived the debate.
The surviving set rests on a moderate number of distinct sources but a noticeable share of claims depend on a single analyst (the heaviest carries 18%), so the read has some concentration risk. The fact that 94% of raised points survived debate implies the desk retained most claims rather than pruning weak ones, which increases confidence in internal consistency but also suggests limited stress-testing; together, these factors make the evidence informative but moderately fragile to changes in a few key sources or a new filing.
Disconfirming evidence · base rates · falsifiers
Context
Outside consensus, and where this name already sits in your own portfolio.
Third-party consensus shown for context. It never enters Moneyta sentiment. When the two diverge, the debate above is where the why lives.
What this was built from
Every figure on this page traces to one of these. The desk reads only what is listed here (no outside knowledge, no browsing), and each card shows who read it and what it contributed to the score.
14 filings· 3 cited
SEC XBRL filings
Quarterly figures as filed with the SEC, read straight from EDGAR's structured data, not retyped or estimated.
Read by Mercer+0.3 to the score
12 documents· 2 cited
SEC filing documents
The filings themselves, including the year-over-year comparison of Item 1A risk factors.
Read by Oakes−1.0 to the score
3 holdings records· 1 cited
Fund holdings
Which funds hold this name and at what weight, plus insider Form 4 filings.
Read by Ellis+0.9 to the score
8 headlines· 2 cited
News coverage
Recent headlines about this company, rating chatter excluded and nothing published after the report date.
Read by Yatesnothing survived
11 filings· 1 cited
Insider filings
Parsed Forms 3/4/5 from EDGAR: named insiders, share counts, prices, and 10b5-1 plan state, with stated and inferred flags kept apart.
Read by Talbot−0.3 to the score
1 computation
Valuation inputs
TTM cash-flow figures from the company's own XBRL filings, priced with the stored closing price. Implied growth and multiples only; no fair-value dollar figure reaches the desk, by design.
Read by Archercontext only
1 record· 0 cited
Company profile
Sector, industry and company details.
1 record· 0 cited
Analyst consensus
Third-party consensus, shown for context only; it never enters Moneyta sentiment.
Read means we pulled and handed it to an analyst; cited means a claim on this page points at it. Reading twelve quarters to state one trend is normal; the gap is shown rather than hidden.
Written by AI, checked against sources
The analysts, the bull–bear debate and the editor's note are AI agents reading only the evidence listed on this page. They can misread a filing or a headline, which is why every claim cites a source you can open and check yourself. The sentiment score is arithmetic over the claims that survived the debate, not a language model's opinion.
Educational analysis of published data. Moneyta does not give investment advice or make recommendations. Past patterns do not indicate future results.
The full terminal on AFL Gold
Who holds it, who's buying, what the Street thinks: live behind the lock, updated as filings land.
Institutional holders
Net institutional flow, Q/Q
Largest holder position
Insider buys, 90 days
Clustered insider value
Street target range
The real figures are for members. Educational analysis, not advice.
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