AJG
Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.Evidence as of 2026-09-02Overview · Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.
Arthur J. Gallagher & Co., together with its subsidiaries, provides insurance and reinsurance brokerage, consulting, and third-party property/casualty claims settlement and administration services to businesses and organizations worldwide. It operates in Brokerage and Risk Management segments. The Brokerage segment offers retail and wholesale insurance and reinsurance brokerage services; assists retail brokers and ot…
Management team
- Mr. Douglas K. Howell CPA · Corporate VP & CFOFind on LinkedIn
- Ms. Susan E. Pietrucha · Corporate VP & Chief Human Resource OfficerFind on LinkedIn
- Mr. Walter D. Bay · General Counsel & SecretaryFind on LinkedIn
- Mr. Patrick M. Gallagher · Executive VP & COOFind on LinkedIn
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Links open LinkedIn searches, not verified profiles. Team data from our market-data vendor's company profile.
Moneyta sentiment
Where the published evidence leans after the desk debated it — not a rating or a recommendation.
−0.1 on a −2 to +2 scale.
What builds the score
Solid bars are analyst rubric scores; faded bars are computed directly from data. Claims dropped in debate count for nothing; weakened claims count at half weight.
Editor's note
Written after the debate settled — the rest of the page is the evidence behind it.
The evidence balance reads Mixed ( -0.1 of a possible +2; confidence high). Revenue came in at $4,758,000,000 in Q1 2026 (fiscal quarter ended 2026-03-31) and fell sequentially to $4,003,000,000 in Q2 2026 (fiscal quarter ended 2026-06-30), though Q2 2026 remains above the year-ago Q2 2025 (fiscal quarter ended 2025-06-30) revenue of $3,220,800,000. Net income and diluted EPS showed a material sequential decline from $822,000,000 and $3.16 in Q1 2026 to $324,000,000 and $1.25 in Q2 2026, with Q2 2025 net income at $365,800,000 and EPS $1.40.
The balance sheet shows assets of $81,808,000,000, liabilities of $58,061,000,000 and stockholders’ equity of $23,717,000,000 as of 2026-06-30, up from assets $70,665,000,000 and liabilities $47,318,000,000 at 2025-12-31 while equity changed modestly. Shares outstanding have moved modestly lower ( 257,100,000 → 256,900,000 → 256,300,000 ) and the company executed $310,000,000 of share repurchases in Q1 2026; trailing twelve-month free cash flow is $2,918,000,000 with TTM EPS $6.85 and a P/E of 38.25, market capitalization $67,150,600,000 and P/FCF ≈ 23. Market signals are mixed: a recent golden cross is present (cross age 19 days), price sits above the 50- and 200-day SMAs, short-term momentum is strong while 12-month momentum is negative, volatility is elevated (30/90-day annualized +32.8%, volatility rank 96th percentile), beta to SPY is -0.32, and three-year max drawdown is -44.4% (current drawdown -23.9%).
How this note was made
every stage ran before the note was writtenAnalyst desk
Mercer, Oakes, Nash, Ellis, Yates, Talbot and Archer. The desk: named AI agents, not people. Each reads one slice of the evidence and nothing else — no outside knowledge, no browsing — so every finding traces to a source you can open.
Reads the XBRL figures companies file with the SEC — revenue, margins, income, debt and share count, quarter by quarter — and reports which way the trend is running.
Revenue was $4,758,000,000 in fiscal Q1 2026 (2026-01-01 to 2026-03-31, 3mo) and $4,003,000,000 in fiscal Q2 2026 (2026-04-01 to 2026-06-30, 3mo), showing a sequential decrease quarter-to-quarter; revenue for fiscal Q2 2025 (2025-04-01 to 2025-06-30, 3mo) was $3,220,800,000, so fiscal Q2 2026 is higher than the year-ago quarter.
XBRL companyfacts · 0001628280-26-031592Net income was $822,000,000 in fiscal Q1 2026 (2026-01-01 to 2026-03-31, 3mo) and $324,000,000 in fiscal Q2 2026 (2026-04-01 to 2026-06-30, 3mo), indicating a material sequential decline; net income in fiscal Q2 2025 (2025-04-01 to 2025-06-30, 3mo) was $365,800,000.
XBRL companyfacts · 0001628280-26-031592Reads the filings themselves, above all the year-over-year diff of Item 1A risk factors: which risks a company added, dropped or quietly reworded since its last annual report.
Which filings the desk reads
The desk reads the annual 10-K in full — its risk factors, and how they changed since last year. Quarterly 10-Qs and event filings (8-Ks, insider Form 4s) are listed for context but not read line by line: the 10-K is where the material risk disclosures live. A brand-new company, or one we have only just begun tracking, may have no annual report on file yet — its risk analysis fills in once that lands.
An 8-K filing with the 8-K filed 27 August 2026 was filed on 2026-08-27.
8-K filed 2026-08-27A Form 4 with the 4 filed 26 August 2026 was filed on 2026-08-26.
4 filed 2026-08-26Reads the signal panel above — momentum, volatility, drawdown, relative strength and beta — and ranks each against the whole research universe rather than judging it in isolation.
Momentum over the last 3 months is +27.7% and over the last 6 months is +17.1%; the 6-month momentum ranks in the 74th percentile of the 547-stock research universe.
Moneyta signal set · 2026-09-01weakened in debateA golden cross is present and the cross age is 19 days, indicating a recent moving-average bullish crossover.
Moneyta signal set · 2026-09-01Reads which funds hold the name and at what weight, plus insider Form 4 filings, to show the exposure you may already carry through index funds.
As of 2026-09-01, AJG was held in Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO) at a reported weight of 0.14% of that fund.
ETF constituents · market dataAs of 2026-09-01, AJG was held in iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV) at a reported weight of 0.09% of that fund.
ETF constituents · market dataReads recent headlines that are genuinely about this company, ignoring rating chatter and market-wide stories. Findings argue in the debate but never move the sentiment score.
News coverage states Arthur J. Gallagher announced a transition in its chief accounting officer role, noting Kyle G. Koreyva took over the function.
News · simplywall.st · 2026-09-01Separate headlines announce the appointment of a new chief accounting officer for Arthur J. Gallagher, showing the leadership-change story is carried by multiple outlets.
News · kalkinemedia.com · 2026-08-27Reads parsed Forms 3/4/5 — who bought or sold, at what size, and whether a 10b5-1 plan was involved. Flags clustered open-market officer buying; treats plan sales as routine and never counts a fund or 10%-holder as an officer.
Walter D. Bay, General Counsel, reported selling 12,000 shares for a stated value of "$3.2M" on 2026-08-24; the filing does not indicate a 10b5-1 plan.
Form 4 · Bay Walter D. (General Counsel) · $3.2M sold · 2026-08-24Christopher E. Mead, Vice President, has two reported transactions on 2026-08-19: a reported "code M" transaction covering 3,500 shares for a stated value of "$302k" (no 10b5-1 plan indicated in the filing).
Form 4 · Mead Christopher E (VICE PRESIDENT) · $302k code M · 2026-08-19Reads the implied-expectations math built from the company's own filings (the growth rate today's price would justify, and the multiples beside it) and argues whether the market's bar looks high or low for this business. Never turns the math into a target.
The trailing twelve months (TTM) free cash flow is $2,918,000,000.
Valuation inputs · SEC XBRL + stored EOD closeThe TTM earnings per share (EPS) is $6.85 and the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio at the given price is 38.25.
Valuation inputs · SEC XBRL + stored EOD closeDebate and risk review
A bull and a bear contest the claims and the chair rules on each; the risk review stress-tests what survived.
A bull and a bear argue the analysts' claims across two rounds, then a chair rules on each one. Only what survives feeds the score — the argument is shown, not hidden, so you can judge the reasoning yourself.
The evidence shows revenue in fiscal Q2 2026 above the year-ago quarter while shares outstanding and explicit repurchases point to modest capital return activity that can support per-share metrics; this is corroborated by a large trailing twelve-month free cash flow figure and a P/FCF near 23, indicating cash-generative operations relative to market value. Balance-sheet totals show material asset growth with equity broadly stable and a small reduction in long-term debt quarter-to-quarter, which together represent improvement in reported financial resources. Market signals show strong near-term momentum, a recent golden-cross, and price trading above both the 50- and 200-day SMAs; additionally, multiple sell-side firms in the supplied consensus continue to rate the stock as Buy, which aligns with the technical and institutional activity evidence. Taken jointly, these claims provide a favorable factual read backed by reported financials, cash-flow metrics, capital-return entries, improving leverage, positive technicals, and repeated buy-side analyst coverage.
Chair's verdict, claim by claim
Fragility · computed, not argued
balanced0.32
40 surviving claims rest on 20 distinct sources; the heaviest analyst carries 20% of them, and 96% of what the desk raised survived the debate.
Evidence rests on a moderate breadth of sources (20) supporting 40 claims, which gives some redundancy but not deep independence; with the single heaviest analyst responsible for one-fifth of claims, analyst-level concentration moderately raises fragility. The very high debate survival (96%) suggests little internal challenge to the set of claims, so treat the read as a coherent desk view but one that would be meaningfully weakened if a few key market- or filing-based datapoints change.
Peer context · computed, not argued
12-1 momentum ranks 1st of 3 in Insurance Brokers (as of 2026-09-01).
6-month relative strength ranks 1st of 3 in Insurance Brokers (as of 2026-09-01).
90-day volatility ranks 3rd of 3 in Insurance Brokers (as of 2026-09-01).
dividend yield ranks 2nd of 3 in Insurance Brokers (as of 2026-09-01).
Disconfirming evidence · base rates · falsifiers
Context
Outside consensus, and where this name already sits in your own portfolio.
Third-party consensus shown for context. It never enters Moneyta sentiment — when the two diverge, the debate above is where the why lives.
What this was built from
Every figure on this page traces to one of these. The desk reads only what is listed here — no outside knowledge, no browsing — and each card shows who read it and what it contributed to the score.
23 filings· 1 cited
SEC XBRL filings
Quarterly figures as filed with the SEC, read straight from EDGAR's structured data — not retyped or estimated.
Read by Mercer+0.1 to the score
4 documents· 2 cited
SEC filing documents
The filings themselves, including the year-over-year comparison of Item 1A risk factors.
Read by Oakes+0.0 to the score
1 signal set
Moneyta signal set
Computed from our own end-of-day price history and ranked against the whole research universe. No AI involved.
Read by Nash+0.0 to the score
3 holdings records· 1 cited
Fund holdings
Which funds hold this name and at what weight, plus insider Form 4 filings.
Read by Ellis+0.0 to the score
8 headlines· 2 cited
News coverage
Recent headlines about this company, rating chatter excluded and nothing published after the report date.
Read by Yatesnothing survived
3 filings· 2 cited
Insider filings
Parsed Forms 3/4/5 from EDGAR: named insiders, share counts, prices, and 10b5-1 plan state — stated and inferred flags kept apart.
Read by Talbot−0.8 to the score
1 computation
Valuation inputs
TTM cash-flow figures from the company's own XBRL filings, priced with the stored closing price. Implied growth and multiples only; no fair-value dollar figure reaches the desk, by design.
Read by Archercontext only
1 record· 0 cited
Company profile
Sector, industry and company details.
1 record· 0 cited
Analyst consensus
Third-party consensus, shown for context only — it never enters Moneyta sentiment.
Read means we pulled and handed it to an analyst; cited means a claim on this page points at it. Reading twelve quarters to state one trend is normal — the gap is shown rather than hidden.
Written by AI, checked against sources
The analysts, the bull–bear debate and the editor's note are AI agents reading only the evidence listed on this page. They can misread a filing or a headline, which is why every claim cites a source you can open and check yourself. The sentiment score is arithmetic over the claims that survived the debate, not a language model's opinion.
Educational analysis of published data. Moneyta does not give investment advice or make recommendations. Past patterns do not indicate future results.
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The full terminal on AJG Gold
Who holds it, who's buying, what the Street thinks: live behind the lock, updated as filings land.
Institutional holders
Net institutional flow, Q/Q
Largest holder position
Insider buys, 90 days
Clustered insider value
Street target range
The real figures are for members. Educational analysis, not advice.
Educational analysis of published data. Moneyta does not give investment advice or make recommendations.