AOS
A. O. Smith CorporationEvidence as of 2026-10-02The desk's Snapshot
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Overview · A. O. Smith Corporation
A. O. Smith Corporation manufactures and markets residential and commercial gas, heat pump and electric water heaters, boilers, tanks, and water treatment products in North America, China, Europe, and India. It operates through two segments, North America and Rest of World. The company offers water heaters for residences, restaurants, hotels, office buildings, laundries, car washes, and small businesses; commercial b…
Management team
- Ms. Helen E. Gurholt · VP of Investor Relations, Financial Planning and Analysis & TreasurerFind on LinkedIn
- Ms. Carrie L. Anderson · Executive VP & CFOFind on LinkedIn
- Mr. Kevin J. Wheeler · Executive DirectorFind on LinkedIn
- Mr. Charles T. Lauber · Executive Vice PresidentFind on LinkedIn
Start free to see the full management team.
Links open LinkedIn searches, not verified profiles. Team data from our market-data vendor's company profile.
Moneyta sentiment
Where the published evidence leans after the desk debated it, not a rating or a recommendation.
−0.5 on a −2 to +2 scale.
What builds the score
Solid bars are analyst rubric scores; faded bars are computed directly from data. Claims dropped in debate count for nothing; weakened claims count at half weight.
Editor's note
Written after the debate settled. The rest of the page is the evidence behind it.
The surviving evidence paints a cautious operational picture: revenue rose from $ 945,600,000 in Q1 2026 (fiscal quarter ended 2026-03-31) to $ 1,004,300,000 in Q2 2026 (fiscal quarter ended 2026-06-30), and gross profit increased from $ 375,400,000 to $ 387,800,000 over the same quarters. Operating income fell from $ 184,000,000 to $ 166,100,000 and net income declined from $ 136,600,000 to $ 124,900,000 while weighted average diluted shares outstanding dropped from 144,407,720 to 137,862,584 and diluted EPS moved from $ 0.85 to $ 0.91 despite underlying net income falling.
Balance-sheet and filing facts survived the desk review: long‑term noncurrent debt rose to $ 598,000,000 as of 2026-06-30 from $ 574,200,000 as of 2026-03-31, cash and equivalents were $ 181,300,000 as of 2026-06-30, total assets were $ 3,644,500,000 with liabilities of $ 1,802,600,000 and stockholders’ equity of $ 1,841,900,000 as of 2026-06-30. Filings show management completed the $ 470 million Leonard Valve acquisition in January 2026 (projected to add about $ 70 million in 2026 North America sales), disclosed China sales down 12% in local currency in 2025, flagged that China accounted for roughly 18% of 2025 sales, and gave consolidated 2026 sales guidance of + 2 to + 5 percent versus 2025 (excluding certain items). The valuation overlay shows an implied free‑cash‑flow growth input of 13.07% to justify today’s price, a price‑to‑free‑cash‑flow (TTM) of 23.61 (FCF yield ~ 4.2%), EV/EBITDA (TTM) of 5.33, P/E (TTM) of 15.03 with trailing EPS of $ 3.77, and trailing twelve‑month free cash flow of $ 330.9M.
How this note was made
every stage ran before the note was writtenAnalyst desk
Mercer, Oakes, Nash, Ellis, Yates, Talbot and Archer. The desk: named AI agents, not people. Each reads one slice of the evidence and nothing else (no outside knowledge, no browsing), so every finding traces to a source you can open.
Reads the XBRL figures companies file with the SEC (revenue, margins, income, debt and share count, quarter by quarter) and reports which way the trend is running.
Revenue was $945,600,000 in fiscal Q1 2026 (2026-01-01 to 2026-03-31, 3mo) and rose to $1,004,300,000 in fiscal Q2 2026 (2026-04-01 to 2026-06-30, 3mo).
XBRL companyfacts · 0000091142-26-000084Gross profit was $375,400,000 in fiscal Q1 2026 (2026-01-01 to 2026-03-31, 3mo) and increased to $387,800,000 in fiscal Q2 2026 (2026-04-01 to 2026-06-30, 3mo).
XBRL companyfacts · 0000091142-26-000084Reads the filings themselves, above all the year-over-year diff of Item 1A risk factors: which risks a company added, dropped or quietly reworded since its last annual report.
Which filings the desk reads
The desk reads the annual 10-K in full: its risk factors, and how they changed since last year. Quarterly 10-Qs and event filings (8-Ks, insider Form 4s) are listed for context but not read line by line: the 10-K is where the material risk disclosures live. A brand-new company, or one we have only just begun tracking, may have no annual report on file yet; its risk analysis fills in once that lands.
In the Form 10-K filed 2026-02-10, management reported that third-party China sales declined 12 percent in local currency in 2025 compared to 2024 and that they initiated an assessment of strategic opportunities for the China business in the third quarter of 2025.
10-K filed 2026-02-10The risk-factor diff between the 2025 and 2026 10-Ks added language explicitly calling out that approximately 18 percent of 2025 sales were attributable to China and highlighted the potential for adverse economic conditions or changes in Chinese consumer behavior to impact the business.
10-K filed 2026-02-10Reads the signal panel above (momentum, volatility, drawdown, relative strength and beta) and ranks each against the whole research universe rather than judging it in isolation.
No computed signal history for this symbol yet — signals need roughly 70 trading days of price history.
Reads which funds hold the name and at what weight, plus insider Form 4 filings, to show the exposure you may already carry through index funds.
Institutional 13F filers reported aggregate AOS holdings valued at "$7.76B" as of the 13F reporting period ended 2026-06-30.
13F holdings · 615 filers · as of 2026-06-30Top institutional holders reported were FMR LLC ($653.4M), BlackRock, Inc. ($505.3M), VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC ($457.0M), VANGUARD PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT LLC ($442.3M), and STATE STREET CORP ($412.8M) in the 13F as of 2026-06-30.
13F holdings · 615 filers · as of 2026-06-30Reads recent headlines that are genuinely about this company, ignoring rating chatter and market-wide stories. Findings argue in the debate but never move the sentiment score.
Multiple articles frame coverage around the stock's recent weakness and valuation debate, describing a share-price pullback and asking whether the water-heater narrative still justifies current valuation levels.
News · simplywall.st · 2026-09-25Several outlets publish price-action or technical-focused pieces that treat A. O. Smith's recent movements as input for trading models and institutional allocation rules rather than company-operational reporting.
News · news.stocktradersdaily.com · 2026-09-19weakened in debateReads parsed Forms 3/4/5: who bought or sold, at what size, and whether a 10b5-1 plan was involved. Flags clustered open-market officer buying; treats plan sales as routine and never counts a fund or 10%-holder as an officer.
No insider transactions on file in the trailing 180 days.
Reads the implied-expectations math built from the company's own filings (the growth rate today's price would justify, and the multiples beside it) and argues whether the market's bar looks high or low for this business. Never turns the math into a target.
The model shows an implied free-cash-flow growth rate of 13.07% that today's price would justify under the stated discount and terminal assumptions.
Valuation inputs · SEC XBRL + stored EOD closePrice-to-free-cash-flow (TTM) is 23.61, which corresponds to a FCF yield of roughly 4.2%.
Valuation inputs · SEC XBRL + stored EOD closeDebate and risk review
A bull and a bear contest the claims and the chair rules on each; the risk review stress-tests what survived.
A bull and a bear argue the analysts' claims across two rounds, then a chair rules on each one. Only what survives feeds the score. The argument is shown, not hidden, so you can judge the reasoning yourself.
Several company-reported and market-data points together support a favorable read. Revenue and gross profit rose from Q1 to Q2 2026 while diluted EPS increased despite a decline in underlying net income, aided by a meaningful reduction in diluted shares outstanding; this combination often improves per-share cash generation metrics. Reported trailing FCF ($330.9M), a modest FCF yield (~4.2%), an EV/EBITDA of 5.33 and a P/E of 15.03 indicate valuation multiples that many investors view as reasonable relative to cash generation. The January 2026 Leonard Valve acquisition (projected to add about $70M in 2026 North America sales) and sizable institutional holdings provide evidence of strategic expansion and investor interest that can support operating scale. These items together counterbalance single-period profitability declines and some region-specific headwinds cited in filings.
Chair's verdict, claim by claim
Fragility · computed, not argued
balanced0.43
33 surviving claims rest on 11 distinct sources; the heaviest analyst carries 27% of them, and 94% of what the desk raised survived the debate.
The surviving-read set is moderately robust: many claims survived desk debate, which supports internal consistency, but those claims rest on a relatively small number of distinct sources and a single analyst contributes a large share of the surviving assertions. Source concentration and analyst dependence increase fragility — these findings should be weighted accordingly when using this read as input to broader research or portfolio-level views.
Disconfirming evidence · base rates · falsifiers
Context
Outside consensus, and where this name already sits in your own portfolio.
Third-party consensus shown for context. It never enters Moneyta sentiment. When the two diverge, the debate above is where the why lives.
What this was built from
Every figure on this page traces to one of these. The desk reads only what is listed here (no outside knowledge, no browsing), and each card shows who read it and what it contributed to the score.
11 filings· 2 cited
SEC XBRL filings
Quarterly figures as filed with the SEC, read straight from EDGAR's structured data, not retyped or estimated.
Read by Mercer+0.0 to the score
4 documents· 3 cited
SEC filing documents
The filings themselves, including the year-over-year comparison of Item 1A risk factors.
Read by Oakes−0.3 to the score
2 holdings records· 1 cited
Fund holdings
Which funds hold this name and at what weight, plus insider Form 4 filings.
Read by Ellis+0.2 to the score
8 headlines· 2 cited
News coverage
Recent headlines about this company, rating chatter excluded and nothing published after the report date.
Read by Yatesnothing survived
1 computation
Valuation inputs
TTM cash-flow figures from the company's own XBRL filings, priced with the stored closing price. Implied growth and multiples only; no fair-value dollar figure reaches the desk, by design.
Read by Archercontext only
1 record· 0 cited
Company profile
Sector, industry and company details.
1 record· 0 cited
Analyst consensus
Third-party consensus, shown for context only; it never enters Moneyta sentiment.
Read means we pulled and handed it to an analyst; cited means a claim on this page points at it. Reading twelve quarters to state one trend is normal; the gap is shown rather than hidden.
Written by AI, checked against sources
The analysts, the bull–bear debate and the editor's note are AI agents reading only the evidence listed on this page. They can misread a filing or a headline, which is why every claim cites a source you can open and check yourself. The sentiment score is arithmetic over the claims that survived the debate, not a language model's opinion.
Educational analysis of published data. Moneyta does not give investment advice or make recommendations. Past patterns do not indicate future results.
The full terminal on AOS Gold
Who holds it, who's buying, what the Street thinks: live behind the lock, updated as filings land.
Institutional holders
Net institutional flow, Q/Q
Largest holder position
Insider buys, 90 days
Clustered insider value
Street target range
The real figures are for members. Educational analysis, not advice.
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Educational analysis of published data. Moneyta does not give investment advice or make recommendations.