CARR
CARRIER GLOBAL CorpEvidence as of 2026-09-30The desk's Snapshot
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Overview · CARRIER GLOBAL Corp
Carrier Global Corporation provides heating, ventilating, and air conditioning (HVAC), refrigeration, fire, security, and building automation technologies worldwide. It operates through three segments: HVAC, Refrigeration, and Fire & Security. The HVAC segment provides products, controls, services, and solutions to meet the heating, cooling, and ventilation needs of residential and commercial customers. Its products…
Management team
- Mr. Timothy N. White · President of Refrigeration SegmentFind on LinkedIn
- Mr. Jurgen Timperman · President of Fire & SecurityFind on LinkedIn
- Mr. Kevin James O'Connor · Senior VP & Chief Legal OfficerFind on LinkedIn
- Mr. Patrick P. Goris · Senior VP & CFOFind on LinkedIn
Start free to see the full management team.
Links open LinkedIn searches, not verified profiles. Team data from our market-data vendor's company profile.
Moneyta sentiment
Where the published evidence leans after the desk debated it, not a rating or a recommendation.
−0.5 on a −2 to +2 scale.
What builds the score
Solid bars are analyst rubric scores; faded bars are computed directly from data. Claims dropped in debate count for nothing; weakened claims count at half weight.
Editor's note
Written after the debate settled. The rest of the page is the evidence behind it.
The surviving record shows revenue that rose from 5,218,000,000 in fiscal Q1 2025 (fiscal quarter ended 2025-04-15) to 6,113,000,000 in fiscal Q2 2025 (fiscal quarter ended 2025-07-15), then fell to 5,579,000,000 in Q3 2025 (fiscal quarter ended 2025-10-15) and was 5,341,000,000 in Q1 2026 (fiscal quarter ended 2026-04-15). Operating income followed a similar intra-year swing, peaking at 903,000,000 in Q2 2025 and dropping to 259,000,000 in Q1 2026.
Annual filings show consolidated net sales of $21,747 million for FY 2025, a 3% decrease versus $22,486 million for FY 2024, and operating profit of $2,172 million for FY 2025, down 18% from $2,646 million in FY 2024. Cash and debt snapshots show cash and cash equivalents of 1,371,000,000 as of 2026-03-31 versus reported debt roughly in the $10–11.5 billion range, producing a materially levered enterprise-value picture alongside elevated short-term volatility and negative momentum readings (-24.2% three‑month; -11.7% twelve‑month-with-1‑month‑lag).
How this note was made
every stage ran before the note was writtenAnalyst desk
Mercer, Oakes, Nash, Ellis, Yates, Talbot and Archer. The desk: named AI agents, not people. Each reads one slice of the evidence and nothing else (no outside knowledge, no browsing), so every finding traces to a source you can open.
Reads the XBRL figures companies file with the SEC (revenue, margins, income, debt and share count, quarter by quarter) and reports which way the trend is running.
Revenue was 5,218,000,000 for the fiscal Q1 2025 (2025-01-01 to 2025-03-31, 3mo), rose to 6,113,000,000 in fiscal Q2 2025 (2025-04-01 to 2025-06-30, 3mo), then fell to 5,579,000,000 in fiscal Q3 2025 (2025-07-01 to 2025-09-30, 3mo) and was 5,341,000,000 in fiscal Q1 2026 (2026-01-01 to 2026-03-31, 3mo).
XBRL companyfacts · 0001783180-25-000030Operating income was 629,000,000 in fiscal Q1 2025 (2025-01-01 to 2025-03-31, 3mo), rose to 903,000,000 in fiscal Q2 2025 (2025-04-01 to 2025-06-30, 3mo), then declined to 539,000,000 in fiscal Q3 2025 (2025-07-01 to 2025-09-30, 3mo) and fell to 259,000,000 in fiscal Q1 2026 (2026-01-01 to 2026-03-31, 3mo).
XBRL companyfacts · 0001783180-25-000030Reads the filings themselves, above all the year-over-year diff of Item 1A risk factors: which risks a company added, dropped or quietly reworded since its last annual report.
Which filings the desk reads
The desk reads the annual 10-K in full: its risk factors, and how they changed since last year. Quarterly 10-Qs and event filings (8-Ks, insider Form 4s) are listed for context but not read line by line: the 10-K is where the material risk disclosures live. A brand-new company, or one we have only just begun tracking, may have no annual report on file yet; its risk analysis fills in once that lands.
For the year ended December 31, 2025, consolidated net sales were $21,747 million, a 3% decrease versus $22,486 million for the year ended December 31, 2024 (filed 2026-02-05).
10-K filed 2026-02-05For the year ended December 31, 2025, operating profit was $2,172 million, down 18% from $2,646 million for the year ended December 31, 2024 (filed 2026-02-05).
10-K filed 2026-02-05Reads the signal panel above (momentum, volatility, drawdown, relative strength and beta) and ranks each against the whole research universe rather than judging it in isolation.
Three-month momentum is -24.2% and twelve-month-with-1-month-lag momentum is -11.7% (momentum_3m: -24.2%; momentum_12_1: -11.7%).
Moneyta signal set · 2026-09-29weakened in debateMaximum drawdown over the past three years is -37.9%, with the three-year drawdown ranking in the 30th percentile of the 567-stock research universe.
Moneyta signal set · 2026-09-29Reads which funds hold the name and at what weight, plus insider Form 4 filings, to show the exposure you may already carry through index funds.
Institutional investors reported a combined position value of $52.78B in CARR as of 2026-06-30.
13F holdings · 1661 filers · as of 2026-06-30Capital Research Global Investors was the largest reported institutional holder with $7.78B in CARR (reported in the 13F as of 2026-06-30).
13F holdings · 1661 filers · as of 2026-06-30Reads recent headlines that are genuinely about this company, ignoring rating chatter and market-wide stories. Findings argue in the debate but never move the sentiment score.
A transcript of Carrier Global's fiscal Q2 2026 earnings conference call was published on 29 September 2026.
News · benzinga.com · 2026-09-29A market report published 29 September 2026 highlights growing demand for smart, energy-efficient integrated air conditioning systems driven by Asia‑Pacific construction and green building standards.
News · globenewswire.com · 2026-09-29Reads parsed Forms 3/4/5: who bought or sold, at what size, and whether a 10b5-1 plan was involved. Flags clustered open-market officer buying; treats plan sales as routine and never counts a fund or 10%-holder as an officer.
No insider transactions on file in the trailing 180 days.
Reads the implied-expectations math built from the company's own filings (the growth rate today's price would justify, and the multiples beside it) and argues whether the market's bar looks high or low for this business. Never turns the math into a target.
The model shows an implied free cash flow (FCF) growth rate of 59.53% (0.5953) that today's price would justify under the stated discount and terminal assumptions.
Valuation inputs · SEC XBRL + stored EOD closePrice-to-FCF (TTM) is 118.76, with FCF per share of $0.4663 and FCF (TTM) of $393,000,000.
Valuation inputs · SEC XBRL + stored EOD closeDebate and risk review
A bull and a bear contest the claims and the chair rules on each; the risk review stress-tests what survived.
A bull and a bear argue the analysts' claims across two rounds, then a chair rules on each one. Only what survives feeds the score. The argument is shown, not hidden, so you can judge the reasoning yourself.
Several company-specific items in the record support a favorable read despite recent quarterly profitability volatility. Share-count reduction and sizable repurchases (claims fundamentals-4 and fundamentals-5) are concrete, measurable capital-allocation actions and represent strong evidence that management is actively returning capital; institutional ownership (ownership-0, ownership-1, ownership-2) is large and corroborates continued investor interest (evidence strength: strong). Strategic portfolio moves — the announced Riello sale (filings-3) and documented mitigation of tariff impacts via pricing and supply-chain actions (filings-4) — are company-led actions that reduce exposure and preserve margins (evidence strength: moderate). Market and product signals (news-1, news-2, news-4) point to demand momentum in smart, energy-efficient HVAC and data-center cooling end markets that align with Carrier’s businesses (evidence strength: moderate).
Chair's verdict, claim by claim
Fragility · computed, not argued
balanced0.37
36 surviving claims rest on 14 distinct sources; the heaviest analyst carries 22% of them, and 99% of what the desk raised survived the debate.
The evidence base cites 36 surviving claims drawn from 14 distinct sources, which gives moderate breadth but also shows concentration in a few filings (10‑Q/10‑K). The largest analyst carrying 22% of claims and a 99% survival rate through debate suggest the set is internally consistent but potentially brittle to new or contradicting filings — treat the read as informational and reliant on a limited set of official reports.
Peer context · computed, not argued
12-1 momentum ranks 3rd of 4 in Building Products & Equipment (as of 2026-09-29).
90-day volatility ranks 2nd of 4 in Building Products & Equipment (as of 2026-09-29).
dividend yield ranks 1st of 4 in Building Products & Equipment (as of 2026-09-29).
Disconfirming evidence · base rates · falsifiers
Context
Outside consensus, and where this name already sits in your own portfolio.
Third-party consensus shown for context. It never enters Moneyta sentiment. When the two diverge, the debate above is where the why lives.
What this was built from
Every figure on this page traces to one of these. The desk reads only what is listed here (no outside knowledge, no browsing), and each card shows who read it and what it contributed to the score.
13 filings· 2 cited
SEC XBRL filings
Quarterly figures as filed with the SEC, read straight from EDGAR's structured data, not retyped or estimated.
Read by Mercer−0.4 to the score
4 documents· 3 cited
SEC filing documents
The filings themselves, including the year-over-year comparison of Item 1A risk factors.
Read by Oakes−0.2 to the score
1 signal set
Moneyta signal set
Computed from our own end-of-day price history and ranked against the whole research universe. No AI involved.
Read by Nash−0.6 to the score
2 holdings records· 1 cited
Fund holdings
Which funds hold this name and at what weight, plus insider Form 4 filings.
Read by Ellis+0.6 to the score
8 headlines· 2 cited
News coverage
Recent headlines about this company, rating chatter excluded and nothing published after the report date.
Read by Yatesnothing survived
1 computation
Valuation inputs
TTM cash-flow figures from the company's own XBRL filings, priced with the stored closing price. Implied growth and multiples only; no fair-value dollar figure reaches the desk, by design.
Read by Archercontext only
1 record· 0 cited
Company profile
Sector, industry and company details.
1 record· 0 cited
Analyst consensus
Third-party consensus, shown for context only; it never enters Moneyta sentiment.
Read means we pulled and handed it to an analyst; cited means a claim on this page points at it. Reading twelve quarters to state one trend is normal; the gap is shown rather than hidden.
Written by AI, checked against sources
The analysts, the bull–bear debate and the editor's note are AI agents reading only the evidence listed on this page. They can misread a filing or a headline, which is why every claim cites a source you can open and check yourself. The sentiment score is arithmetic over the claims that survived the debate, not a language model's opinion.
Educational analysis of published data. Moneyta does not give investment advice or make recommendations. Past patterns do not indicate future results.
The full terminal on CARR Gold
Who holds it, who's buying, what the Street thinks: live behind the lock, updated as filings land.
Institutional holders
Net institutional flow, Q/Q
Largest holder position
Insider buys, 90 days
Clustered insider value
Street target range
The real figures are for members. Educational analysis, not advice.
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Educational analysis of published data. Moneyta does not give investment advice or make recommendations.