CARR
CARRIER GLOBAL CorpEvidence as of 2026-09-02Moneyta sentiment
Where the published evidence leans after the desk debated it — not a rating or a recommendation.
−0.3 on a −2 to +2 scale.
What builds the score
Solid bars are analyst rubric scores; faded bars are computed directly from data. Claims dropped in debate count for nothing; weakened claims count at half weight.
Editor's note
Written after the debate settled — the rest of the page is the evidence behind it.
The evidence balance is Mixed ( -0.3 of a possible +2; was -0.3 before debate) · confidence high. Revenue stepped down from $ 6,113,000,000 in Q2 2025 (fiscal quarter ended 2025-07-15) to $ 5,579,000,000 in Q3 2025 (fiscal quarter ended 2025-10-15) and to $ 5,341,000,000 in Q1 2026 (fiscal quarter ended 2026-04-15). Operating income and implied margins compressed from $ 903,000,000 (≈ 14.8% margin) in Q2 2025 to $ 539,000,000 (≈ 9.7%) in Q3 2025 and $ 259,000,000 (≈ 4.8%) in Q1 2026 while net income fell from $ 591,000,000 to $ 428,000,000 to $ 238,000,000 over the same three quarters.
Balance-sheet and market facts survive intact: shares outstanding have declined sequentially to 830,580,423 as of 2026-04-15, cash and equivalents fell from $ 3,969,000,000 as of 2024-12-31 to $ 1,371,000,000 as of 2026-03-31, long-term noncurrent debt edged down to $ 10,422,000,000 as of 2026-03-31, and repurchases of common stock were $ 1,288,000,000 in the quarter ending 2025-03-31 and $ 306,000,000 in the quarter ending 2026-03-31. Market signals show negative price momentum across horizons, elevated volatility (30‑day annualized +37.0%, 90‑day +39.2%), price below the 50‑ and 200‑day SMAs even though a golden cross is recorded (cross_age_days 85), a trailing twelve‑month dividend yield of 1.65%, and a consensus target price of $ 73.67. Valuation and cash‑flow metrics include trailing twelve‑month FCF $ 393,000,000 (FCF per share $ 0.4663), price‑to‑FCF 122.77, EPS ttm = 1.93 (P/E 29.66), reported ttm operating income $ 2,330,000,000, market cap $ 47,550,729,217 and enterprise value $ 56,406,729,217; the model-implied FCF growth rate to justify today’s price is 60.63%.
How this note was made
every stage ran before the note was writtenAnalyst desk
Mercer, Oakes, Nash, Ellis, Yates, Talbot and Archer. The desk: named AI agents, not people. Each reads one slice of the evidence and nothing else — no outside knowledge, no browsing — so every finding traces to a source you can open.
Reads the XBRL figures companies file with the SEC — revenue, margins, income, debt and share count, quarter by quarter — and reports which way the trend is running.
Revenue by quarter: $6,113,000,000 in fiscal Q2 2025 (2025-04-01 to 2025-06-30), $5,579,000,000 in fiscal Q3 2025 (2025-07-01 to 2025-09-30) and $5,341,000,000 in fiscal Q1 2026 (2026-01-01 to 2026-03-31).
XBRL companyfacts · 0001783180-25-000052Operating income by quarter and implied operating margin: fiscal Q2 2025 operating income $903,000,000 (margin ≈ 14.8% using Q2 2025 revenue), fiscal Q3 2025 operating income $539,000,000 (margin ≈ 9.7% using Q3 2025 revenue), fiscal Q1 2026 operating income $259,000,000 (margin ≈ 4.8% using Q1 2026 revenue).
XBRL companyfacts · 0001783180-25-000052Reads the filings themselves, above all the year-over-year diff of Item 1A risk factors: which risks a company added, dropped or quietly reworded since its last annual report.
Nothing in this slice of the evidence rose to a claim — a quiet read, which itself is information.
Which filings the desk reads
The desk reads the annual 10-K in full — its risk factors, and how they changed since last year. Quarterly 10-Qs and event filings (8-Ks, insider Form 4s) are listed for context but not read line by line: the 10-K is where the material risk disclosures live. A brand-new company, or one we have only just begun tracking, may have no annual report on file yet — its risk analysis fills in once that lands.
Reads the signal panel above — momentum, volatility, drawdown, relative strength and beta — and ranks each against the whole research universe rather than judging it in isolation.
Price momentum is negative across horizons: momentum_3m is -13.5%, momentum_6m is -5.7%, and momentum_12_1 is -6.5%, with the 6-month and 12-1 month momentum both at the 25th percentile of the 547-stock research universe on 2026-09-01.
Moneyta signal set · 2026-09-01weakened in debateRelative strength versus SPY is weak: rel_strength_6m is -18.0% (25th percentile) and rel_strength_12m is -29.9% as of 2026-09-01.
Moneyta signal set · 2026-09-01Reads which funds hold the name and at what weight, plus insider Form 4 filings, to show the exposure you may already carry through index funds.
An ETF membership record dated 2026-09-02T13:45:47.228469+00:00 shows CARR included in the ETF with symbol IVV.
ETF constituents · market dataThe recorded weight of CARR in that ETF (IVV) is 0.09 percent of the fund's assets as of 2026-09-02T13:45:47.228469+00:00.
ETF constituents · market dataReads recent headlines that are genuinely about this company, ignoring rating chatter and market-wide stories. Findings argue in the debate but never move the sentiment score.
A published consensus average target price of $73.67 is reported for the stock.
News · thelincolnianonline.com · 2026-09-02Carrier announced that its chairman & CEO and CFO will speak at the 14th Annual Morgan Stanley Laguna Conference on Tuesday, Sept. 15, 2026.
News · prnewswire.com · 2026-09-01Reads parsed Forms 3/4/5 — who bought or sold, at what size, and whether a 10b5-1 plan was involved. Flags clustered open-market officer buying; treats plan sales as routine and never counts a fund or 10%-holder as an officer.
No insider transactions on file in the trailing 180 days.
Reads the implied-expectations math built from the company's own filings (the growth rate today's price would justify, and the multiples beside it) and argues whether the market's bar looks high or low for this business. Never turns the math into a target.
The model calculates an implied free cash flow (FCF) growth rate of 60.63% that today's price would justify under the stated discount and terminal assumptions.
Valuation inputs · SEC XBRL + stored EOD closePrice-to-FCF (trailing twelve months) is 122.77, implying the market price equals about 123 times reported FCF over the last twelve months.
Valuation inputs · SEC XBRL + stored EOD closeDebate and risk review
A bull and a bear contest the claims and the chair rules on each; the risk review stress-tests what survived.
A bull and a bear argue the analysts' claims across two rounds, then a chair rules on each one. Only what survives feeds the score — the argument is shown, not hidden, so you can judge the reasoning yourself.
SEC filings show a clear, sequential reduction in diluted share count and documented repurchases, which is direct, high-strength evidence of active shareholder return and EPS-supporting capital allocation. Multiple Q filings also report meaningful trailing twelve‑month operating income ($2.33B) and enterprise value data (valuation-4), a strong factual basis to view the company's scale and operating earnings power. Recent analyst target data and several 2Q institutional filings (news-0, news-2, news-3, news-4) are timely, medium-strength signals of ongoing market interest that temper purely price-based weakness. Counterpoints such as falling quarter-to-quarter revenue, margin compression, cash decline, negative price momentum, elevated volatility, and high FCF multiples are factual (contested below) but some are partially offset by documented buybacks, modest debt reduction, ETF inclusion, dividend growth, and operating income size, which together form the stronger elements of a favorable read.
Chair's verdict, claim by claim
Fragility · computed, not argued
balanced0.34
27 surviving claims rest on 13 distinct sources; the heaviest analyst carries 26% of them, and 98% of what the desk raised survived the debate.
The surviving set is moderately concentrated: about two dozen claims rely on only a baker's dozen of sources, with one analyst contributing roughly a quarter of the claims and nearly all proposed points surviving the internal debate. That pattern raises caution about over‑weighting any single line of reasoning — the read is relatively robust within the desk but still sensitive to a few influential inputs and to updates from future filings or market moves.
Peer context · computed, not argued
12-1 momentum ranks 1st of 2 in Building Products & Equipment (as of 2026-09-01).
6-month relative strength ranks 1st of 2 in Building Products & Equipment (as of 2026-09-01).
90-day volatility ranks 2nd of 2 in Building Products & Equipment (as of 2026-09-01).
dividend yield ranks 1st of 2 in Building Products & Equipment (as of 2026-09-01).
Disconfirming evidence · base rates · falsifiers
Context
Outside consensus, and where this name already sits in your own portfolio.
Third-party consensus shown for context. It never enters Moneyta sentiment — when the two diverge, the debate above is where the why lives.
What this was built from
Every figure on this page traces to one of these. The desk reads only what is listed here — no outside knowledge, no browsing — and each card shows who read it and what it contributed to the score.
13 filings· 1 cited
SEC XBRL filings
Quarterly figures as filed with the SEC, read straight from EDGAR's structured data — not retyped or estimated.
Read by Mercer−0.4 to the score
1 signal set
Moneyta signal set
Computed from our own end-of-day price history and ranked against the whole research universe. No AI involved.
Read by Nash−0.5 to the score
1 holdings record
Fund holdings
Which funds hold this name and at what weight, plus insider Form 4 filings.
Read by Ellis+0.0 to the score
8 headlines· 2 cited
News coverage
Recent headlines about this company, rating chatter excluded and nothing published after the report date.
Read by Yatesnothing survived
1 computation
Valuation inputs
TTM cash-flow figures from the company's own XBRL filings, priced with the stored closing price. Implied growth and multiples only; no fair-value dollar figure reaches the desk, by design.
Read by Archercontext only
1 record· 0 cited
Company profile
Sector, industry and company details.
1 record· 0 cited
Analyst consensus
Third-party consensus, shown for context only — it never enters Moneyta sentiment.
Read means we pulled and handed it to an analyst; cited means a claim on this page points at it. Reading twelve quarters to state one trend is normal — the gap is shown rather than hidden.
Written by AI, checked against sources
The analysts, the bull–bear debate and the editor's note are AI agents reading only the evidence listed on this page. They can misread a filing or a headline, which is why every claim cites a source you can open and check yourself. The sentiment score is arithmetic over the claims that survived the debate, not a language model's opinion.
Educational analysis of published data. Moneyta does not give investment advice or make recommendations. Past patterns do not indicate future results.
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The full terminal on CARR Gold
Who holds it, who's buying, what the Street thinks: live behind the lock, updated as filings land.
Institutional holders
Net institutional flow, Q/Q
Largest holder position
Insider buys, 90 days
Clustered insider value
Street target range
The real figures are for members. Educational analysis, not advice.
Educational analysis of published data. Moneyta does not give investment advice or make recommendations.