CASY
Casey's General Stores, Inc.Evidence as of 2026-09-02Moneyta sentiment
Where the published evidence leans after the desk debated it — not a rating or a recommendation.
+0.5 on a −2 to +2 scale.
What builds the score
Solid bars are analyst rubric scores; faded bars are computed directly from data. Claims dropped in debate count for nothing; weakened claims count at half weight.
Editor's note
Written after the debate settled — the rest of the page is the evidence behind it.
The surviving evidence shows a clear quarter-to-quarter weakening in top- and bottom-line metrics across the three reported quarters: reported quarterly revenues fell from $ 4,567,106,000 in the quarter ended 31 July 2025 to $ 4,506,084,000 in the quarter ended 31 October 2025 and then to $ 3,916,132,000 in the quarter ended 31 January 2026. Single-quarter net income declined from $ 215,355,000 to $ 206,336,000 and then to $ 130,073,000 over the same three quarters, and diluted EPS compressed from $ 5.77 to $ 5.53 and then to $ 3.49.
Balance-sheet items cited in the packet show increasing cash and slightly lower long-term debt across the year: cash and cash equivalents rose from $ 326,662,000 as of 30 April 2025 to $ 522,991,000 as of 30 April 2026 while long-term noncurrent debt declined from $ 2,413,620,000 to $ 2,320,875,000 over the same dates. Trailing twelve-month operating cash flow is reported at $ 1,159,108,000, TTM capex at $ 361,583,000, and trailing twelve-month free cash flow at $ 797,525,000, implying FCF per share of $ 21.4152 on the provided share count and a TTM EPS of $ 17.12. The evidence balance is constructive (+0.5 of a possible +2) with high confidence.
How this note was made
every stage ran before the note was writtenAnalyst desk
Mercer, Oakes, Nash, Ellis, Yates, Talbot and Archer. The desk: named AI agents, not people. Each reads one slice of the evidence and nothing else — no outside knowledge, no browsing — so every finding traces to a source you can open.
Reads the XBRL figures companies file with the SEC — revenue, margins, income, debt and share count, quarter by quarter — and reports which way the trend is running.
Reported quarterly revenues fell from $4,567,106,000 in the fiscal quarter ended 31 July 2025 (Q1 2026, 2025-05-01 to 2025-07-31) to $4,506,084,000 in the quarter ended 31 October 2025 (Q2 2026, 2025-08-01 to 2025-10-31) and then to $3,916,132,000 in the quarter ended 31 January 2026 (fiscal Q3 2026, 2025-11-01 to 2026-01-31).
XBRL companyfacts · 0000726958-25-000101Net income (single quarter) declined from $215,355,000 in the quarter ended 31 July 2025 to $206,336,000 in the quarter ended 31 October 2025 and to $130,073,000 in the quarter ended 31 January 2026.
XBRL companyfacts · 0000726958-26-000010Reads the filings themselves, above all the year-over-year diff of Item 1A risk factors: which risks a company added, dropped or quietly reworded since its last annual report.
Nothing in this slice of the evidence rose to a claim — a quiet read, which itself is information.
Which filings the desk reads
The desk reads the annual 10-K in full — its risk factors, and how they changed since last year. Quarterly 10-Qs and event filings (8-Ks, insider Form 4s) are listed for context but not read line by line: the 10-K is where the material risk disclosures live. A brand-new company, or one we have only just begun tracking, may have no annual report on file yet — its risk analysis fills in once that lands.
Reads the signal panel above — momentum, volatility, drawdown, relative strength and beta — and ranks each against the whole research universe rather than judging it in isolation.
No computed signal history for this symbol yet — signals need roughly 70 trading days of price history.
Reads which funds hold the name and at what weight, plus insider Form 4 filings, to show the exposure you may already carry through index funds.
As of 2026-09-02T13:45:47.228469+00:00 the company is an index holding in the iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV) with a weight of 0.05% of that fund.
ETF constituents · market dataMembership at a 0.05% weight in IVV indicates factual passive index exposure to the S&P 500 through a major ETF as of 2026-09-02T13:45:47.228469+00:00.
ETF constituents · market dataReads recent headlines that are genuinely about this company, ignoring rating chatter and market-wide stories. Findings argue in the debate but never move the sentiment score.
Two earnings-preview headlines (zacks.com on 2026-09-02 and finance.yahoo.com on 2026-09-02) focus on Wall Street projections and key metrics ahead of Casey's fiscal Q1 2027 (the quarter ended July 2026).
News · zacks.com · 2026-09-02A separate earnings-preview headline (finance.yahoo.com on 2026-09-01, also carried by zacks.com on 2026-09-01) frames Casey's upcoming release as showing expected earnings growth but says the company 'doesn't possess the right combination of the two key ingredients for a likely earnings beat' for the next report.
News · finance.yahoo.com · 2026-09-01Reads parsed Forms 3/4/5 — who bought or sold, at what size, and whether a 10b5-1 plan was involved. Flags clustered open-market officer buying; treats plan sales as routine and never counts a fund or 10%-holder as an officer.
No insider transactions on file in the trailing 180 days.
Reads the implied-expectations math built from the company's own filings (the growth rate today's price would justify, and the multiples beside it) and argues whether the market's bar looks high or low for this business. Never turns the math into a target.
Trailing twelve-month free cash flow (FCF) is $797,525,000.
Valuation inputs · SEC XBRL + stored EOD closeFCF per share is $21.4152 based on the provided share count.
Valuation inputs · SEC XBRL + stored EOD closeDebate and risk review
A bull and a bear contest the claims and the chair rules on each; the risk review stress-tests what survived.
A bull and a bear argue the analysts' claims across two rounds, then a chair rules on each one. Only what survives feeds the score — the argument is shown, not hidden, so you can judge the reasoning yourself.
Several pieces of the provided evidence together support a favorable read: trailing twelve-month cash generation and operating cash flow (TTM FCF $797.5M; operating cash flow $1,159.1M) and FCF per share ($21.42) indicate robust cash economics (evidence strength: strong, based on valuation and cash-flow entries). Balance-sheet items show cash rising and long-term debt modestly declining, and weighted-average diluted shares outstanding have ticked down, consistent with improving liquidity and shareholder-capital discipline (evidence strength: moderate-to-strong, from the company filings). Institutional holdings and inflows — multiple Q2 buys/increases and inclusion in a major S&P 500 ETF — provide corroborating demand signals from large investors (evidence strength: moderate, from 13F/holdings reports and ETF membership). These elements jointly argue that despite single-quarter revenue and EPS compression, the company’s cash-generation profile, leverage trend, and institutional ownership provide a constructive informational context for interpreting the headline quarterly declines (evidence strength: mixed — operational declines are factual but may be balanced by cash-flow and ownership data).
Chair's verdict, claim by claim
Fragility · computed, not argued
diversified0.28
19 surviving claims rest on 12 distinct sources; the heaviest analyst carries 32% of them, and 100% of what the desk raised survived the debate.
The surviving set draws on a moderate number of distinct sources but a fairly small analyst concentration: about a third of claims come from the single heaviest analyst and every issue raised by the desk survived the debate. That combination raises two fragility flags — single-analyst influence (which can overweight particular interpretations) and survivorship bias (no internal challenges removed claims) — so treat the read as informative but relatively brittle until corroborated by additional independent sources or subsequent filings.
Disconfirming evidence · base rates · falsifiers
Context
Outside consensus, and where this name already sits in your own portfolio.
Third-party consensus shown for context. It never enters Moneyta sentiment — when the two diverge, the debate above is where the why lives.
What this was built from
Every figure on this page traces to one of these. The desk reads only what is listed here — no outside knowledge, no browsing — and each card shows who read it and what it contributed to the score.
12 filings· 2 cited
SEC XBRL filings
Quarterly figures as filed with the SEC, read straight from EDGAR's structured data — not retyped or estimated.
Read by Mercer+0.0 to the score
1 holdings record
Fund holdings
Which funds hold this name and at what weight, plus insider Form 4 filings.
Read by Ellis+1.0 to the score
8 headlines· 2 cited
News coverage
Recent headlines about this company, rating chatter excluded and nothing published after the report date.
Read by Yatesnothing survived
1 computation
Valuation inputs
TTM cash-flow figures from the company's own XBRL filings, priced with the stored closing price. Implied growth and multiples only; no fair-value dollar figure reaches the desk, by design.
Read by Archercontext only
1 record· 0 cited
Company profile
Sector, industry and company details.
1 record· 0 cited
Analyst consensus
Third-party consensus, shown for context only — it never enters Moneyta sentiment.
Read means we pulled and handed it to an analyst; cited means a claim on this page points at it. Reading twelve quarters to state one trend is normal — the gap is shown rather than hidden.
Written by AI, checked against sources
The analysts, the bull–bear debate and the editor's note are AI agents reading only the evidence listed on this page. They can misread a filing or a headline, which is why every claim cites a source you can open and check yourself. The sentiment score is arithmetic over the claims that survived the debate, not a language model's opinion.
Educational analysis of published data. Moneyta does not give investment advice or make recommendations. Past patterns do not indicate future results.
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The full terminal on CASY Gold
Who holds it, who's buying, what the Street thinks: live behind the lock, updated as filings land.
Institutional holders
Net institutional flow, Q/Q
Largest holder position
Insider buys, 90 days
Clustered insider value
Street target range
The real figures are for members. Educational analysis, not advice.
Educational analysis of published data. Moneyta does not give investment advice or make recommendations.