CAT
Caterpillar Inc.Evidence as of 2026-09-11The desk's Snapshot
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Overview · Caterpillar Inc.
Management team
- Ms. Jaime Mineart · Senior VP & CTOFind on LinkedIn
- Mr. Derek R. Owens · Chief Legal Officer & General CounselFind on LinkedIn
- Mr. Ryan Fiedler · Vice President of Investor RelationsFind on LinkedIn
- Ms. Jamie L. Engstrom · Senior VP & Chief Information OfficerFind on LinkedIn
Start free to see the full management team.
Links open LinkedIn searches, not verified profiles. Team data from our market-data vendor's company profile.
Moneyta sentiment
Where the published evidence leans after the desk debated it, not a rating or a recommendation.
+0.4 on a −2 to +2 scale (was +0.5 before the debate changed the read).
What builds the score
Solid bars are analyst rubric scores; faded bars are computed directly from data. Claims dropped in debate count for nothing; weakened claims count at half weight.
Editor's note
Written after the debate settled. The rest of the page is the evidence behind it.
The evidence balance is Constructive (+0.4 of a possible +2; was +0.5 before debate) with confidence high. Revenues rose from $17,415,000,000 in fiscal Q1 2026 (ended 2026-03-31) to $20,543,000,000 in fiscal Q2 2026 (ended 2026-06-30), an increase of $3,128,000,000 (about 18.0%). Gross profit expanded from $6,109,000,000 in fiscal Q1 2026 to $7,762,000,000 in fiscal Q2 2026, lifting gross margin from about 35.1% to about 37.8%, and operating income rose from $3,085,000,000 to $4,295,000,000 (operating margin ~17.7% to ~20.9%).
Diluted EPS moved from $5.47 in fiscal Q1 2026 to $7.77 in fiscal Q2 2026 while weighted-average diluted shares declined from 465,800,000 to 462,500,000. Cash and cash equivalents show an increase through FY 2025 to $9,980,000,000 (ended 2025-12-31), a decline to $4,072,000,000 (ended 2026-03-31), and a partial recovery to $6,713,000,000 (ended 2026-06-30). Market signals are mixed: twelve-month momentum is strongly positive at +103.9% (92nd percentile), thirty- and ninety-day volatility are elevated (+32.6% and +42.7%), and the price sits 6.3% below the 50-day SMA but 3.7% above the 200-day SMA (a golden cross true as of 2026-09-10). Valuation multiples include P/E (TTM) 35.4, EV/EBITDA 25.14, and P/FCF 84.16.
How this note was made
every stage ran before the note was writtenAnalyst desk
Mercer, Oakes, Nash, Ellis, Yates, Talbot and Archer. The desk: named AI agents, not people. Each reads one slice of the evidence and nothing else (no outside knowledge, no browsing), so every finding traces to a source you can open.
Reads the XBRL figures companies file with the SEC (revenue, margins, income, debt and share count, quarter by quarter) and reports which way the trend is running.
Revenues were $17,415,000,000 in fiscal Q1 2026, ended 31 March 2026, and increased to $20,543,000,000 in fiscal Q2 2026, ended 30 June 2026 (a quarterly increase of $3,128,000,000, or ~18.0%).
XBRL companyfacts · 0000018230-26-000021Cost of revenue rose from $11,306,000,000 in fiscal Q1 2026, ended 31 March 2026, to $12,781,000,000 in fiscal Q2 2026, ended 30 June 2026, while gross profit margin expanded from about 35.1% in fiscal Q1 2026 to about 37.8% in fiscal Q2 2026 (gross profit Q1 = $6,109,000,000; Q2 = $7,762,000,000).
XBRL companyfacts · 0000018230-26-000046Reads the filings themselves, above all the year-over-year diff of Item 1A risk factors: which risks a company added, dropped or quietly reworded since its last annual report.
Which filings the desk reads
The desk reads the annual 10-K in full: its risk factors, and how they changed since last year. Quarterly 10-Qs and event filings (8-Ks, insider Form 4s) are listed for context but not read line by line: the 10-K is where the material risk disclosures live. A brand-new company, or one we have only just begun tracking, may have no annual report on file yet; its risk analysis fills in once that lands.
Total sales and revenues for the second quarter of 2026 (three months ended June 30, 2026) were $20.543 billion, up $3.974 billion (24%) versus the second quarter of 2025.
10-Q filed 2026-08-05Operating profit margin was 20.9 percent for the second quarter of 2026 (three months ended June 30, 2026), compared with 17.3 percent for the second quarter of 2025.
10-Q filed 2026-08-05Reads the signal panel above (momentum, volatility, drawdown, relative strength and beta) and ranks each against the whole research universe rather than judging it in isolation.
Three-month momentum is -6.0% as of 2026-09-10, placing short-term price change negative over that window.
Moneyta signal set · 2026-09-10weakened in debateSix-month momentum is +14.0% and ranks in the 67th percentile of the 554-stock research universe as of 2026-09-10, indicating above-median intermediate-term performance within the universe.
Moneyta signal set · 2026-09-10weakened in debateReads which funds hold the name and at what weight, plus insider Form 4 filings, to show the exposure you may already carry through index funds.
Reported institutional holdings total $235.27B as of the 13F period ended 2026-03-31, representing a quarter-over-quarter reported value change of 23.2%.
13F holdings · 3722 filers · as of 2026-03-31BlackRock, Inc. and STATE STREET CORP were the top two reported institutional holders in the 13F file for the period ended 2026-03-31 with reported values of $26.34B and $24.71B respectively, and those reported values show quarter-over-quarter reported increases of 27.0% and 21.9% respectively.
13F holdings · 3722 filers · as of 2026-03-31Reads recent headlines that are genuinely about this company, ignoring rating chatter and market-wide stories. Findings argue in the debate but never move the sentiment score.
Several headlines emphasize Caterpillar’s exposure to data-center and AI infrastructure demand, noting strong power-generation and order momentum tied to that market.
News · finance.yahoo.com · 2026-09-10Multiple finance.yahoo.com pieces frame Caterpillar as benefiting from AI/infrastructure buildouts and position the company as an overlooked AI-infrastructure play.
News · finance.yahoo.com · 2026-09-10Reads parsed Forms 3/4/5: who bought or sold, at what size, and whether a 10b5-1 plan was involved. Flags clustered open-market officer buying; treats plan sales as routine and never counts a fund or 10%-holder as an officer.
The parsed cluster summary shows insiders sold a total of "$113.9M" and bought a total of "$219k" inside the 180-day window used for this report.
Form 4 · Creed Joseph E (Chief Executive Officer) · $9.8M code M · 2026-08-28Joseph E. Creed (Chief Executive Officer) is recorded with two acquisition-coded transactions: one for "44403" shares with a value of "$9.8M" (action "code M") and one for "12002" shares with a value of "$9.8M" (action "code F") on 2026-08-28.
Form 4 · Creed Joseph E (Chief Executive Officer) · $9.8M code M · 2026-08-28Reads the implied-expectations math built from the company's own filings (the growth rate today's price would justify, and the multiples beside it) and argues whether the market's bar looks high or low for this business. Never turns the math into a target.
Using the inputs and discount/terminal assumptions in this evidence, the price of 805.0 implies a free cash flow (FCF) growth rate of 48.45% per year (implied_growth = 0.4845).
Valuation inputs · SEC XBRL + stored EOD closeThe price-to-free-cash-flow (P/FCF) multiple based on trailing twelve-month FCF is 84.16.
Valuation inputs · SEC XBRL + stored EOD closeDebate and risk review
A bull and a bear contest the claims and the chair rules on each; the risk review stress-tests what survived.
A bull and a bear argue the analysts' claims across two rounds, then a chair rules on each one. Only what survives feeds the score. The argument is shown, not hidden, so you can judge the reasoning yourself.
The evidence set jointly supports a favorable read on operational momentum: sequential revenue, gross profit, operating income, and EPS all increased meaningfully from Q1 to Q2 2026 (fundamentals-0 through fundamentals-3), while share count declined and the company executed large repurchases (fundamentals-4 and fundamentals-5), which mechanically lifted EPS and per-share cash-flow metrics. Filings corroborate the operational drivers — management attributes the quarter to higher sales volume and favorable price realization and reports strong enterprise operating cash flow and cash balances (filings-0, filings-1, filings-2, filings-5). Market and ownership signals provide intermediary confirmation of market acceptance: strong 6- and 12-month momentum and elevated institutional holdings/ETF inclusion indicate above-median investor interest over those horizons (market-1, market-2, ownership-0, ownership-2). News items highlighting AI/data-center exposure and autonomy partnerships add a thematic growth angle (news-0, news-1, news-2), and reported CEO acquisitions amid a cluster of Form 4 activity mitigate a simple story of insider selling (insider-1, insider-3). While valuation multiples appear elevated on several measures, trailing free cash flow and operating cash flow metrics show material cash generation that supports a positive fundamental read (valuation-4).
Chair's verdict, claim by claim
Fragility · computed, not argued
balanced0.34
42 surviving claims rest on 19 distinct sources; the heaviest analyst carries 19% of them, and 95% of what the desk raised survived the debate.
The evidence base is reasonably broad (many surviving claims across nearly twenty distinct sources), so the read has substance but is not immune to concentrated influences. A single analyst supplying nearly a fifth of claims and the very high survival rate from the desk debate both increase the chance that remaining biases or common assumptions persist in the package — treat the synthesis as informative but somewhat brittle to concentrated input errors or shared model assumptions.
Disconfirming evidence · base rates · falsifiers
Context
Outside consensus, and where this name already sits in your own portfolio.
Third-party consensus shown for context. It never enters Moneyta sentiment. When the two diverge, the debate above is where the why lives.
What this was built from
Every figure on this page traces to one of these. The desk reads only what is listed here (no outside knowledge, no browsing), and each card shows who read it and what it contributed to the score.
11 filings· 2 cited
SEC XBRL filings
Quarterly figures as filed with the SEC, read straight from EDGAR's structured data, not retyped or estimated.
Read by Mercer+1.4 to the score
13 documents· 2 cited
SEC filing documents
The filings themselves, including the year-over-year comparison of Item 1A risk factors.
Read by Oakes+0.7 to the score
1 signal set
Moneyta signal set
Computed from our own end-of-day price history and ranked against the whole research universe. No AI involved.
Read by Nash−0.2 to the score
3 holdings records· 1 cited
Fund holdings
Which funds hold this name and at what weight, plus insider Form 4 filings.
Read by Ellis+0.8 to the score
8 headlines· 2 cited
News coverage
Recent headlines about this company, rating chatter excluded and nothing published after the report date.
Read by Yatesnothing survived
5 filings· 1 cited
Insider filings
Parsed Forms 3/4/5 from EDGAR: named insiders, share counts, prices, and 10b5-1 plan state, with stated and inferred flags kept apart.
Read by Talbot−0.5 to the score
1 computation
Valuation inputs
TTM cash-flow figures from the company's own XBRL filings, priced with the stored closing price. Implied growth and multiples only; no fair-value dollar figure reaches the desk, by design.
Read by Archercontext only
1 record· 0 cited
Company profile
Sector, industry and company details.
1 record· 0 cited
Analyst consensus
Third-party consensus, shown for context only; it never enters Moneyta sentiment.
Read means we pulled and handed it to an analyst; cited means a claim on this page points at it. Reading twelve quarters to state one trend is normal; the gap is shown rather than hidden.
Written by AI, checked against sources
The analysts, the bull–bear debate and the editor's note are AI agents reading only the evidence listed on this page. They can misread a filing or a headline, which is why every claim cites a source you can open and check yourself. The sentiment score is arithmetic over the claims that survived the debate, not a language model's opinion.
Educational analysis of published data. Moneyta does not give investment advice or make recommendations. Past patterns do not indicate future results.
The full terminal on CAT Gold
Who holds it, who's buying, what the Street thinks: live behind the lock, updated as filings land.
Institutional holders
Net institutional flow, Q/Q
Largest holder position
Insider buys, 90 days
Clustered insider value
Street target range
The real figures are for members. Educational analysis, not advice.
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