CF
CF Industries Holdings, Inc.Evidence as of 2026-09-30The desk's Snapshot
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Overview · CF Industries Holdings, Inc.
CF Industries Holdings, Inc. manufactures and sells hydrogen and nitrogen products for energy, fertilizer, emissions abatement, and other industrial activities worldwide. Its principal products include anhydrous ammonia, granular urea, urea ammonium nitrate, and ammonium nitrate products. The company also offers diesel exhaust fluid, urea liquor, nitric acid, and aqua ammonia products; and compound fertilizer product…
Management team
- Mr. Ashraf K. Malik · Senior Vice President of Manufacturing & DistributionFind on LinkedIn
- Mr. Bert A. Frost · Executive Vice President of Sales, Market Development & Supply ChainFind on LinkedIn
- Ms. Susan L. Menzel · Executive VP & Chief Administrative OfficerFind on LinkedIn
- Mr. Christopher D. Bohn · Executive VP, COO & DirectorFind on LinkedIn
Start free to see the full management team.
Links open LinkedIn searches, not verified profiles. Team data from our market-data vendor's company profile.
Moneyta sentiment
Where the published evidence leans after the desk debated it, not a rating or a recommendation.
−0.2 on a −2 to +2 scale.
What builds the score
Solid bars are analyst rubric scores; faded bars are computed directly from data. Claims dropped in debate count for nothing; weakened claims count at half weight.
Editor's note
Written after the debate settled. The rest of the page is the evidence behind it.
The evidence balance is Mixed ( -0.2 of a possible +2; was -0.2 before debate) · confidence high. Reported revenues rose from $ 1,663,000,000 in Q1 2026 (fiscal quarter ended 2026-05-04) to $ 2,222,000,000 in Q2 2026 (fiscal quarter ended 2026-08-03), while reported gross profit expanded from $ 572,000,000 to $ 1,145,000,000 across the same quarters, lifting the quarter gross margin from about 34% to about 52%. Operating income increased from $ 455,000,000 in Q1 2026 to $ 1,121,000,000 in Q2 2026 and diluted EPS rose from $ 1.85 to $ 4.73 per share; trailing twelve-month free cash flow is $ 1,952,000,000 and FCF per share is $ 12.6836.
Balance-sheet and market evidence is mixed but internally consistent: shares outstanding have declined from 161,972,955 as of 2025-08-04 to 151,338,130 as of 2026-08-03 with $ 444,000,000 of Q1 2026 cash used for repurchases supporting that decline; long-term debt is essentially flat at about $ 3,215,000,000; total stockholders’ equity rose from $ 4,780,000,000 as of 2025-03-31 to $ 5,748,000,000 as of 2026-06-30. Market signals show strong 12-1 momentum at + 47.9% (85th percentile) but weak 6-month momentum at - 15.6% (12th percentile), a price 3.7% above the 200-day SMA with price 7.5% below the 50-day SMA and a golden-cross present as of 2026-09-29, and valuation multiples that are low by common measures (TTM P/E 8.72, EV/EBITDA 4.96, price/FCF 9.12).
How this note was made
every stage ran before the note was writtenAnalyst desk
Mercer, Oakes, Nash, Ellis, Yates, Talbot and Archer. The desk: named AI agents, not people. Each reads one slice of the evidence and nothing else (no outside knowledge, no browsing), so every finding traces to a source you can open.
Reads the XBRL figures companies file with the SEC (revenue, margins, income, debt and share count, quarter by quarter) and reports which way the trend is running.
Reported revenues rose from 1,663,000,000 USD in Q1 2026 (2025-01-01 to 2025-03-31, 3mo) to 2,222,000,000 USD in Q2 2026 (2026-04-01 to 2026-06-30, 3mo).
XBRL companyfacts · 0001324404-26-000013weakened in debateGross profit expanded from 572,000,000 USD in Q1 2026 (2025-01-01 to 2025-03-31, 3mo) to 1,145,000,000 USD in Q2 2026 (2026-04-01 to 2026-06-30, 3mo), increasing reported gross margin from about 34% to about 52% using those quarter revenues.
XBRL companyfacts · 0001324404-26-000013weakened in debateReads the filings themselves, above all the year-over-year diff of Item 1A risk factors: which risks a company added, dropped or quietly reworded since its last annual report.
Which filings the desk reads
The desk reads the annual 10-K in full: its risk factors, and how they changed since last year. Quarterly 10-Qs and event filings (8-Ks, insider Form 4s) are listed for context but not read line by line: the 10-K is where the material risk disclosures live. A brand-new company, or one we have only just begun tracking, may have no annual report on file yet; its risk analysis fills in once that lands.
The 10-K filed 25 February 2026 added a risk emphasizing that the company's operating results are highly dependent on cyclical changes in supply and demand for nitrogen products and that industry oversupply can negatively affect business, financial condition, results of operations and cash flows.
10-K filed 2026-02-25The 10-K filed 25 February 2026 added a risk highlighting that China could expand exports of nitrogen fertilizers if Chinese policy, utilization, currency moves, environmental standards, or cost inputs change, and that any such increase in production or export volume could adversely affect the company.
10-K filed 2026-02-25Reads the signal panel above (momentum, volatility, drawdown, relative strength and beta) and ranks each against the whole research universe rather than judging it in isolation.
On 2026-09-29 CF shows strong medium-term price momentum: the 12-1 momentum metric is +47.9% and ranks in the 85th percentile of the 567-stock research universe on that date.
Moneyta signal set · 2026-09-29weakened in debateShorter-term momentum is weak: 6-month momentum is -15.6% and the 6-month momentum rank is the 12th percentile of 567 on 2026-09-29.
Moneyta signal set · 2026-09-29Reads which funds hold the name and at what weight, plus insider Form 4 filings, to show the exposure you may already carry through index funds.
The aggregate 13F-reported institutional holdings value is "$16.14B" as of the 13F reporting period ended 2026-06-30.
13F holdings · 970 filers · as of 2026-06-30BlackRock, Inc. is listed as a top 13F holder with a reported value of "$1.41B" in the 13F holdings as of 2026-06-30.
13F holdings · 970 filers · as of 2026-06-30Reads recent headlines that are genuinely about this company, ignoring rating chatter and market-wide stories. Findings argue in the debate but never move the sentiment score.
A headline states CF Industries came under pressure after President Donald Trump said the United States was nearing a potash supply deal with Belarus, a development framed as potentially reshaping fertilizer pricing for North American producers.
News · finance.yahoo.com · 2026-09-22A headline reports CF Industries was down 6.1% after President Trump floated the prospect of cheaper Belarus potash imports, linking the move to concerns for fertilizer producers.
News · finance.yahoo.com · 2026-09-22Reads parsed Forms 3/4/5: who bought or sold, at what size, and whether a 10b5-1 plan was involved. Flags clustered open-market officer buying; treats plan sales as routine and never counts a fund or 10%-holder as an officer.
No insider transactions on file in the trailing 180 days.
Reads the implied-expectations math built from the company's own filings (the growth rate today's price would justify, and the multiples beside it) and argues whether the market's bar looks high or low for this business. Never turns the math into a target.
The implied free cash flow (FCF) growth rate that today's price would justify, under the stated discount and terminal assumptions, is -8.92% (implied_growth = -0.0892).
Valuation inputs · SEC XBRL + stored EOD closePrice to trailing twelve-month FCF is 9.12 (price_to_fcf = 9.12).
Valuation inputs · SEC XBRL + stored EOD closeDebate and risk review
A bull and a bear contest the claims and the chair rules on each; the risk review stress-tests what survived.
A bull and a bear argue the analysts' claims across two rounds, then a chair rules on each one. Only what survives feeds the score. The argument is shown, not hidden, so you can judge the reasoning yourself.
The provided financials show a marked quarter-to-quarter operational improvement: revenues, gross profit, operating income and diluted EPS all rose substantially in Q2 2026 versus Q1 2026 while outstanding shares declined via repurchases, increasing per-share metrics. Trailing FCF, low EV/EBITDA and TTM P/E multiples, and a sizable FCF-per-share figure align with those operational gains and make the company’s cash-generation profile visible in valuation. Institutional ownership breadth and a strong 12-1 price momentum metric further indicate market participation behind recent strength, and dividend growth completes a cash-return picture. The filing risks and negative headlines flagged are largely industry-level or policy uncertainties (cyclicality, export dynamics, carbon regulation exposure) that are already disclosed; these items explain episodic short-term volatility and headline-driven pullbacks but do not negate the contemporaneous improvement in reported business results and cash flow metrics.
Chair's verdict, claim by claim
Fragility · computed, not argued
balanced0.37
36 surviving claims rest on 15 distinct sources; the heaviest analyst carries 22% of them, and 93% of what the desk raised survived the debate.
The read is moderately robust: 36 surviving claims draw on 15 distinct sources, so multiple documents back the narrative, but a handful of filings (notably the company's 10-Q/10-K series) carry considerable weight. The heaviest analyst supplying 22% of claims and a 93% survival rate in debate indicate low internal pushback but also source and analyst-concentration risk, so treat conclusions as informative but reliant on a concentrated evidence set.
Peer context · computed, not argued
12-1 momentum ranks 1st of 2 in Agricultural Inputs (as of 2026-09-29).
6-month relative strength ranks 2nd of 2 in Agricultural Inputs (as of 2026-09-29).
90-day volatility ranks 2nd of 2 in Agricultural Inputs (as of 2026-09-29).
dividend yield ranks 2nd of 2 in Agricultural Inputs (as of 2026-09-29).
Disconfirming evidence · base rates · falsifiers
Context
Outside consensus, and where this name already sits in your own portfolio.
Third-party consensus shown for context. It never enters Moneyta sentiment. When the two diverge, the debate above is where the why lives.
What this was built from
Every figure on this page traces to one of these. The desk reads only what is listed here (no outside knowledge, no browsing), and each card shows who read it and what it contributed to the score.
13 filings· 2 cited
SEC XBRL filings
Quarterly figures as filed with the SEC, read straight from EDGAR's structured data, not retyped or estimated.
Read by Mercer+0.9 to the score
6 documents· 3 cited
SEC filing documents
The filings themselves, including the year-over-year comparison of Item 1A risk factors.
Read by Oakes−0.8 to the score
1 signal set
Moneyta signal set
Computed from our own end-of-day price history and ranked against the whole research universe. No AI involved.
Read by Nash+0.1 to the score
2 holdings records· 1 cited
Fund holdings
Which funds hold this name and at what weight, plus insider Form 4 filings.
Read by Ellis+0.6 to the score
5 headlines· 2 cited
News coverage
Recent headlines about this company, rating chatter excluded and nothing published after the report date.
Read by Yatesnothing survived
1 computation
Valuation inputs
TTM cash-flow figures from the company's own XBRL filings, priced with the stored closing price. Implied growth and multiples only; no fair-value dollar figure reaches the desk, by design.
Read by Archercontext only
1 record· 0 cited
Company profile
Sector, industry and company details.
1 record· 0 cited
Analyst consensus
Third-party consensus, shown for context only; it never enters Moneyta sentiment.
Read means we pulled and handed it to an analyst; cited means a claim on this page points at it. Reading twelve quarters to state one trend is normal; the gap is shown rather than hidden.
Written by AI, checked against sources
The analysts, the bull–bear debate and the editor's note are AI agents reading only the evidence listed on this page. They can misread a filing or a headline, which is why every claim cites a source you can open and check yourself. The sentiment score is arithmetic over the claims that survived the debate, not a language model's opinion.
Educational analysis of published data. Moneyta does not give investment advice or make recommendations. Past patterns do not indicate future results.
The full terminal on CF Gold
Who holds it, who's buying, what the Street thinks: live behind the lock, updated as filings land.
Institutional holders
Net institutional flow, Q/Q
Largest holder position
Insider buys, 90 days
Clustered insider value
Street target range
The real figures are for members. Educational analysis, not advice.
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Educational analysis of published data. Moneyta does not give investment advice or make recommendations.