CME
CME GROUP INC.Evidence as of 2026-09-02Overview · CME GROUP INC.
CME Group Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates contract markets for the trading of futures and options on futures contracts worldwide. It offers futures and options products based on interest rates, equity indexes, foreign exchange, agricultural commodities, energy, and metals, as well as fixed income and foreign currency trading services. The company also provides clearing house services, including clearin…
Management team
- Mr. Michael G. Dennis · Global Head of Fixed IncomeFind on LinkedIn
- Mr. Derek Sammann · Senior Managing Director & Global Head of CommoditiesFind on LinkedIn
- Mr. Sunil Cutinho · Chief Information OfficerFind on LinkedIn
- Ms. Julie Holzrichter · Senior MD & COOFind on LinkedIn
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Links open LinkedIn searches, not verified profiles. Team data from our market-data vendor's company profile.
Moneyta sentiment
Where the published evidence leans after the desk debated it — not a rating or a recommendation.
+0.2 on a −2 to +2 scale.
What builds the score
Solid bars are analyst rubric scores; faded bars are computed directly from data. Claims dropped in debate count for nothing; weakened claims count at half weight.
Editor's note
Written after the debate settled — the rest of the page is the evidence behind it.
Mixed (+0.2 of a possible +2; confidence high). CME reported revenues of $ 1,706,200,000 in fiscal Q2 2026 (fiscal quarter ended 2026-06-30), down from $ 1,880,100,000 in fiscal Q1 2026 (fiscal quarter ended 2026-03-31), a sequential decline of $ 173,900,000. Operating income compressed from $ 1,309,700,000 in fiscal Q1 2026 (about a 69.7% margin) to $ 1,107,100,000 in fiscal Q2 2026 (about a 64.9% margin), and diluted EPS moved from $ 3.18 to $ 2.88 sequentially while diluted shares fell modestly to 361,282,000.
Balance-sheet and market signals are mixed: total assets fell to $ 194,676,600,000 and shareholders’ equity to $ 26,520,400,000 as of 2026-06-30 versus FY 2025 balances, volatility is elevated (90‑day annualized +29.5%, 30‑day +21.7%), price sits above the 50‑ and 200‑day SMAs (+12.1% and +4.1% respectively), dividend yield is relatively strong at 3.93% (88th percentile), and correlation/beta versus SPY are negative. Valuation shows P/FCF ~ 25.24 and P/E ~ 25.22 on trailing twelve months, EV/EBITDA ~ 3.63, and the model implies an FCF growth rate of about 14.74% given today’s price; trailing twelve‑month FCF is $ 4,100,600,000 with capex of $ 71,000,000.
How this note was made
every stage ran before the note was writtenAnalyst desk
Mercer, Oakes, Nash, Ellis, Yates, Talbot and Archer. The desk: named AI agents, not people. Each reads one slice of the evidence and nothing else — no outside knowledge, no browsing — so every finding traces to a source you can open.
Reads the XBRL figures companies file with the SEC — revenue, margins, income, debt and share count, quarter by quarter — and reports which way the trend is running.
CME reported revenues of $1,706,200,000 in fiscal Q2 2026 (2026-04-01 to 2026-06-30, 3mo).
XBRL companyfacts · 0001156375-26-000047Revenues were $1,880,100,000 in fiscal Q1 2026 (2026-01-01 to 2026-03-31, 3mo), so sequential revenue declined by $173,900,000 between fiscal Q1 2026 and fiscal Q2 2026 (1,880,100,000 -> 1,706,200,000).
XBRL companyfacts · 0001156375-26-000020Reads the filings themselves, above all the year-over-year diff of Item 1A risk factors: which risks a company added, dropped or quietly reworded since its last annual report.
Nothing in this slice of the evidence rose to a claim — a quiet read, which itself is information.
Which filings the desk reads
The desk reads the annual 10-K in full — its risk factors, and how they changed since last year. Quarterly 10-Qs and event filings (8-Ks, insider Form 4s) are listed for context but not read line by line: the 10-K is where the material risk disclosures live. A brand-new company, or one we have only just begun tracking, may have no annual report on file yet — its risk analysis fills in once that lands.
Reads the signal panel above — momentum, volatility, drawdown, relative strength and beta — and ranks each against the whole research universe rather than judging it in isolation.
Price is above both moving averages: price is +12.1% vs the 50-day SMA and +4.1% vs the 200-day SMA as of 2026-09-01.
Moneyta signal set · 2026-09-01Momentum is mixed: 3-month momentum is +14.9% while 6-month momentum is -9.3% and the 12_1 (12-month minus 1-month) momentum is -0.6% as of 2026-09-01, with the 6-month momentum ranked at the 20th percentile of the 547-stock research universe.
Moneyta signal set · 2026-09-01weakened in debateReads which funds hold the name and at what weight, plus insider Form 4 filings, to show the exposure you may already carry through index funds.
Institutional 13F-reported holdings total $216.9M as of the period ended 2026-03-31.
13F holdings · 4 filers · as of 2026-03-31Ensign Peak Advisors, Inc is the largest reported 13F holder with a reported value of $190.0M as of the period ended 2026-03-31.
13F holdings · 4 filers · as of 2026-03-31Reads recent headlines that are genuinely about this company, ignoring rating chatter and market-wide stories. Findings argue in the debate but never move the sentiment score.
CME Group announced that registration is open for its 23rd annual Global University Trading Challenge.
News · prnewswire.com · 2026-09-01The event is scheduled to be held from October 4 to October 30, according to the announcement.
News · finance.yahoo.com · 2026-09-01Reads parsed Forms 3/4/5 — who bought or sold, at what size, and whether a 10b5-1 plan was involved. Flags clustered open-market officer buying; treats plan sales as routine and never counts a fund or 10%-holder as an officer.
No insider transactions on file in the trailing 180 days.
Reads the implied-expectations math built from the company's own filings (the growth rate today's price would justify, and the multiples beside it) and argues whether the market's bar looks high or low for this business. Never turns the math into a target.
The model-implied free cash flow (FCF) growth rate that today's price would justify is 14.74% (0.1474).
Valuation inputs · SEC XBRL + stored EOD closePrice-to-FFO/FCF on the trailing twelve months is 25.24 (price_to_fcf = 25.24), i.e., the market price equals about 25.24 times last-twelve-months FCF per share.
Valuation inputs · SEC XBRL + stored EOD closeDebate and risk review
A bull and a bear contest the claims and the chair rules on each; the risk review stress-tests what survived.
A bull and a bear argue the analysts' claims across two rounds, then a chair rules on each one. Only what survives feeds the score — the argument is shown, not hidden, so you can judge the reasoning yourself.
Several claims jointly support a favorable read: CME generates multi-billion trailing cash flow with low capex (valuation-4) and a low EV/EBITDA multiple (valuation-2), while still producing high absolute net income in the latest quarter versus year-ago (fundamentals-4). Market positioning shows price above both the 50- and 200-day SMAs and a relatively high dividend yield with recent dividend growth (market-0, market-3), which alongside ETF inclusion and concentrated institutional ownership (ownership-0, ownership-1, ownership-3) implies ongoing demand drivers. Sequential headwinds in revenue and margins exist, but the company preserved a high operating margin (~64.9% in Q2) and reduced diluted share count, supporting per-share cash/earnings retention (fundamentals-2, fundamentals-5).
Chair's verdict, claim by claim
Fragility · computed, not argued
balanced0.44
30 surviving claims rest on 9 distinct sources; the heaviest analyst carries 27% of them, and 97% of what the desk raised survived the debate.
The read rests on a moderate number of independent sources but a noticeable concentration of surviving claims tied to a few inputs and one analyst — that reduces the independent corroboration each claim enjoys. The very high debate-survival rate (97%) means the desk largely retained its initial assertions; combined with the analyst concentration, this read should be treated as informative but somewhat brittle to a small set of contrary data points or corrected filings. Financial analysts often weight such evidence cautiously: source diversity and lower single-analyst dominance increase confidence, while the opposite raises fragility.
Peer context · computed, not argued
12-1 momentum ranks 1st of 5 in Financial Data & Stock Exchanges (as of 2026-09-01).
90-day volatility ranks 3rd of 5 in Financial Data & Stock Exchanges (as of 2026-09-01).
dividend yield ranks 1st of 5 in Financial Data & Stock Exchanges (as of 2026-09-01).
Disconfirming evidence · base rates · falsifiers
Context
Outside consensus, and where this name already sits in your own portfolio.
Third-party consensus shown for context. It never enters Moneyta sentiment — when the two diverge, the debate above is where the why lives.
What this was built from
Every figure on this page traces to one of these. The desk reads only what is listed here — no outside knowledge, no browsing — and each card shows who read it and what it contributed to the score.
19 filings· 2 cited
SEC XBRL filings
Quarterly figures as filed with the SEC, read straight from EDGAR's structured data — not retyped or estimated.
Read by Mercer−0.1 to the score
1 signal set
Moneyta signal set
Computed from our own end-of-day price history and ranked against the whole research universe. No AI involved.
Read by Nash+0.0 to the score
2 holdings records· 1 cited
Fund holdings
Which funds hold this name and at what weight, plus insider Form 4 filings.
Read by Ellis+0.6 to the score
3 headlines· 2 cited
News coverage
Recent headlines about this company, rating chatter excluded and nothing published after the report date.
Read by Yatesnothing survived
1 computation
Valuation inputs
TTM cash-flow figures from the company's own XBRL filings, priced with the stored closing price. Implied growth and multiples only; no fair-value dollar figure reaches the desk, by design.
Read by Archercontext only
1 record· 0 cited
Company profile
Sector, industry and company details.
1 record· 0 cited
Analyst consensus
Third-party consensus, shown for context only — it never enters Moneyta sentiment.
Read means we pulled and handed it to an analyst; cited means a claim on this page points at it. Reading twelve quarters to state one trend is normal — the gap is shown rather than hidden.
Written by AI, checked against sources
The analysts, the bull–bear debate and the editor's note are AI agents reading only the evidence listed on this page. They can misread a filing or a headline, which is why every claim cites a source you can open and check yourself. The sentiment score is arithmetic over the claims that survived the debate, not a language model's opinion.
Educational analysis of published data. Moneyta does not give investment advice or make recommendations. Past patterns do not indicate future results.
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The full terminal on CME Gold
Who holds it, who's buying, what the Street thinks: live behind the lock, updated as filings land.
Institutional holders
Net institutional flow, Q/Q
Largest holder position
Insider buys, 90 days
Clustered insider value
Street target range
The real figures are for members. Educational analysis, not advice.
Educational analysis of published data. Moneyta does not give investment advice or make recommendations.