CMG
CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL INCEvidence as of 2026-09-29The desk's Snapshot
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Overview · CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL INC
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, owns and operates Chipotle Mexican Grill restaurants. It offers burritos, burrito bowls, quesadillas, tacos, and salads. The company was founded in 1993 and is headquartered in Newport Beach, California.
Management team
- Ms. Laurie Schalow · Chief Corporate Affairs & Food Safety OfficerFind on LinkedIn
- Ms. D Ilene Eskenazi J.D. · Chief Human Resources OfficerFind on LinkedIn
- Mr. Roger E. Theodoredis J.D. · Chief Legal Officer, General Counsel & Corporate SecretaryFind on LinkedIn
- Ms. Jamie McConnell · Chief Accounting and Administrative OfficerFind on LinkedIn
Start free to see the full management team.
Links open LinkedIn searches, not verified profiles. Team data from our market-data vendor's company profile.
Moneyta sentiment
Where the published evidence leans after the desk debated it, not a rating or a recommendation.
−0.5 on a −2 to +2 scale.
What builds the score
Solid bars are analyst rubric scores; faded bars are computed directly from data. Claims dropped in debate count for nothing; weakened claims count at half weight.
Editor's note
Written after the debate settled. The rest of the page is the evidence behind it.
The evidence balance is Cautious ( -0.5 of a possible +2; confidence high). Revenues were $ 3,088,242,000 in Q1 2026 (fiscal quarter ended 2026-04-24) and $ 3,348,562,000 in Q2 2026 (fiscal quarter ended 2026-07-24). Operating income and net income rose between those quarters from $ 397,063,000 to $ 525,595,000 and from $ 302,824,000 to $ 403,547,000 respectively, while diluted EPS moved from $ 0.23 to $ 0.32 as diluted shares declined from 1,301,859,000 to 1,279,064,000.
On capital return and valuation, the company repurchased $ 701,027,000 of common stock in Q1 2026, trailing twelve‑month free cash flow is $ 1,654,481,000 (FCF per share $ 1.2935) and the model‑implied FCF growth rate that today's price would justify is 14.12%. Institutional 13F‑reported holdings totaled $ 39.55B as of 2026-06-30, though reported 13F aggregate value fell by 36.5% quarter‑over‑quarter in that filing.
How this note was made
every stage ran before the note was writtenAnalyst desk
Mercer, Oakes, Nash, Ellis, Yates, Talbot and Archer. The desk: named AI agents, not people. Each reads one slice of the evidence and nothing else (no outside knowledge, no browsing), so every finding traces to a source you can open.
Reads the XBRL figures companies file with the SEC (revenue, margins, income, debt and share count, quarter by quarter) and reports which way the trend is running.
Revenues were $3,088,242,000 in fiscal Q1 2026 (2026-01-01 to 2026-03-31, 3mo).
XBRL companyfacts · 0001058090-26-000028Revenues were $3,348,562,000 in fiscal Q2 2026 (2026-04-01 to 2026-06-30, 3mo).
XBRL companyfacts · 0001058090-26-000066Reads the filings themselves, above all the year-over-year diff of Item 1A risk factors: which risks a company added, dropped or quietly reworded since its last annual report.
Which filings the desk reads
The desk reads the annual 10-K in full: its risk factors, and how they changed since last year. Quarterly 10-Qs and event filings (8-Ks, insider Form 4s) are listed for context but not read line by line: the 10-K is where the material risk disclosures live. A brand-new company, or one we have only just begun tracking, may have no annual report on file yet; its risk analysis fills in once that lands.
The company stated in its filing that over 16% of its 2025 food and beverage revenue consisted of delivery orders, highlighting material dependence on third‑party delivery channels.
10-K filed 2026-02-04The company disclosed added risk language that food safety risk may be higher than some competitors because it uses fresh, unprocessed produce, handles raw chicken in restaurants, relies on employees cooking with traditional methods and does not use artificial preservatives or frozen ingredients, and that delivery and catering could increase illness risk due to conditions outside the company's control.
10-K filed 2026-02-04Reads the signal panel above (momentum, volatility, drawdown, relative strength and beta) and ranks each against the whole research universe rather than judging it in isolation.
No computed signal history for this symbol yet — signals need roughly 70 trading days of price history.
Reads which funds hold the name and at what weight, plus insider Form 4 filings, to show the exposure you may already carry through index funds.
Institutional 13F-reported holdings in CMG totaled $39.55B as of 2026-06-30.
13F holdings · 1198 filers · as of 2026-06-30BlackRock, Inc. is reported as the largest 13F holder with $4.42B, followed by VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC at $2.85B and JPMORGAN CHASE & CO at $2.18B (as reported in the 13F data as of 2026-06-30).
13F holdings · 1198 filers · as of 2026-06-30Reads recent headlines that are genuinely about this company, ignoring rating chatter and market-wide stories. Findings argue in the debate but never move the sentiment score.
Multiple outlets on 28 September 2026 reported Chipotle ran a five-city "Summon the Spirits Tour" pop-up to revive its $6 Chipotle Margarita for a limited time.
News · simplywall.st · 2026-09-28The company's press release about the "Summon the Spirits Tour" and the margarita return was published 28 September 2026 and was carried via PR Newswire and syndicated outlets.
News · prnewswire.com · 2026-09-28Reads parsed Forms 3/4/5: who bought or sold, at what size, and whether a 10b5-1 plan was involved. Flags clustered open-market officer buying; treats plan sales as routine and never counts a fund or 10%-holder as an officer.
No insider transactions on file in the trailing 180 days.
Reads the implied-expectations math built from the company's own filings (the growth rate today's price would justify, and the multiples beside it) and argues whether the market's bar looks high or low for this business. Never turns the math into a target.
The model-implied free cash flow (FCF) growth rate that today's price would justify is 14.12%.
Valuation inputs · SEC XBRL + stored EOD closeTrailing twelve-month free cash flow (FCF) is $1,654,481,000 and FCF per share is $1.2935.
Valuation inputs · SEC XBRL + stored EOD closeDebate and risk review
A bull and a bear contest the claims and the chair rules on each; the risk review stress-tests what survived.
A bull and a bear argue the analysts' claims across two rounds, then a chair rules on each one. Only what survives feeds the score. The argument is shown, not hidden, so you can judge the reasoning yourself.
Several company-reported fundamentals and capital-allocation items jointly support a favorable read: sequential revenue, operating income, net income and EPS all rose from fiscal Q1 to Q2 2026, weighted-average diluted shares fell as the company executed sizable buybacks in Q1 2026, and trailing twelve‑month FCF is large with cash on hand and no reported long‑term debt. Institutional 13F holdings remain sizeable with major asset managers among the largest reported holders, which can be interpreted as continued institutional interest. These items counterbalance the filing disclosures by framing the company’s current operating profitability, cash generation and active share-repurchase program as evidence strength in favor of a positive operating and capital-allocation profile.
Chair's verdict, claim by claim
Fragility · computed, not argued
balanced0.41
34 surviving claims rest on 13 distinct sources; the heaviest analyst carries 32% of them, and 100% of what the desk raised survived the debate.
The evidence set is moderately robust: 34 surviving claims draw on 13 distinct sources, which gives some breadth, but a single analyst contributes nearly a third of the surviving items and the research desk’s inputs all survived internal debate, raising the possibility of confirmation concentration. Under a fragility lens, that concentration and 100% debate survival reduce the independent weight each claim can bear even though multiple public filings support key financial and risk disclosures.
Disconfirming evidence · base rates · falsifiers
Context
Outside consensus, and where this name already sits in your own portfolio.
Third-party consensus shown for context. It never enters Moneyta sentiment. When the two diverge, the debate above is where the why lives.
What this was built from
Every figure on this page traces to one of these. The desk reads only what is listed here (no outside knowledge, no browsing), and each card shows who read it and what it contributed to the score.
12 filings· 3 cited
SEC XBRL filings
Quarterly figures as filed with the SEC, read straight from EDGAR's structured data, not retyped or estimated.
Read by Mercer+1.0 to the score
8 documents· 3 cited
SEC filing documents
The filings themselves, including the year-over-year comparison of Item 1A risk factors.
Read by Oakes−1.0 to the score
3 holdings records· 1 cited
Fund holdings
Which funds hold this name and at what weight, plus insider Form 4 filings.
Read by Ellis+0.2 to the score
8 headlines· 2 cited
News coverage
Recent headlines about this company, rating chatter excluded and nothing published after the report date.
Read by Yatesnothing survived
1 computation
Valuation inputs
TTM cash-flow figures from the company's own XBRL filings, priced with the stored closing price. Implied growth and multiples only; no fair-value dollar figure reaches the desk, by design.
Read by Archercontext only
1 record· 0 cited
Company profile
Sector, industry and company details.
1 record· 0 cited
Analyst consensus
Third-party consensus, shown for context only; it never enters Moneyta sentiment.
Read means we pulled and handed it to an analyst; cited means a claim on this page points at it. Reading twelve quarters to state one trend is normal; the gap is shown rather than hidden.
Written by AI, checked against sources
The analysts, the bull–bear debate and the editor's note are AI agents reading only the evidence listed on this page. They can misread a filing or a headline, which is why every claim cites a source you can open and check yourself. The sentiment score is arithmetic over the claims that survived the debate, not a language model's opinion.
Educational analysis of published data. Moneyta does not give investment advice or make recommendations. Past patterns do not indicate future results.
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