CMG
CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL INCEvidence as of 2026-09-02Moneyta sentiment
Where the published evidence leans after the desk debated it — not a rating or a recommendation.
+0.5 on a −2 to +2 scale — was +0.4 before the debate changed the read.
What builds the score
Solid bars are analyst rubric scores; faded bars are computed directly from data. Claims dropped in debate count for nothing; weakened claims count at half weight.
Editor's note
Written after the debate settled — the rest of the page is the evidence behind it.
The surviving evidence is constructive (+0.5 of +2; confidence high). Revenues rose from $3,088,242,000 in the three months ended 31 March 2026 (fiscal Q1 2026, 2026-01-01 to 2026-03-31) to $3,348,562,000 in the three months ended 30 June 2026 (fiscal Q2 2026, 2026-04-01 to 2026-06-30). Operating income increased from $397,063,000 in fiscal Q1 2026 to $525,595,000 in fiscal Q2 2026, while net income climbed from $302,824,000 to $403,547,000 and diluted EPS moved from $0.23 to $0.32 over the same two quarter span.
The filings show a falling share count: entity common stock shares outstanding decreased from 1,302,423,000 as of 2026-01-30 to 1,282,734,000 as of 2026-04-24 and to 1,265,418,000 as of 2026-07-24. Trailing twelve‑month free cash flow is reported as $1,654,481,000, EBITDA TTM as $2,335,401,000, operating income TTM as $1,958,887,000, and EPS TTM as 1.16, while cash and cash equivalents as of 2026-06-30 are $228,199,000 and reported long‑term debt is 0.0 (debt as of 2025-12-31).
How this note was made
every stage ran before the note was writtenAnalyst desk
Mercer, Oakes, Nash, Ellis, Yates, Talbot and Archer. The desk: named AI agents, not people. Each reads one slice of the evidence and nothing else — no outside knowledge, no browsing — so every finding traces to a source you can open.
Reads the XBRL figures companies file with the SEC — revenue, margins, income, debt and share count, quarter by quarter — and reports which way the trend is running.
Revenues for the three months ended 31 March 2026 (fiscal Q1 2026, 2026-01-01 to 2026-03-31) were $3,088,242,000.
XBRL companyfacts · 0001058090-26-000028Revenues for the three months ended 30 June 2026 (fiscal Q2 2026, 2026-04-01 to 2026-06-30) were $3,348,562,000.
XBRL companyfacts · 0001058090-26-000066Reads the filings themselves, above all the year-over-year diff of Item 1A risk factors: which risks a company added, dropped or quietly reworded since its last annual report.
Nothing in this slice of the evidence rose to a claim — a quiet read, which itself is information.
Which filings the desk reads
The desk reads the annual 10-K in full — its risk factors, and how they changed since last year. Quarterly 10-Qs and event filings (8-Ks, insider Form 4s) are listed for context but not read line by line: the 10-K is where the material risk disclosures live. A brand-new company, or one we have only just begun tracking, may have no annual report on file yet — its risk analysis fills in once that lands.
Reads the signal panel above — momentum, volatility, drawdown, relative strength and beta — and ranks each against the whole research universe rather than judging it in isolation.
No computed signal history for this symbol yet — signals need roughly 70 trading days of price history.
Reads which funds hold the name and at what weight, plus insider Form 4 filings, to show the exposure you may already carry through index funds.
As of 2026-09-02T13:45:47.228469+00:00, Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (CMG) is held in the iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV) at a weight of 0.07% of that fund.
ETF constituents · market dataThe provided dataset lists one ETF membership record for CMG (IVV) as of 2026-09-02T13:45:47.228469+00:00.
ETF constituents · market dataReads recent headlines that are genuinely about this company, ignoring rating chatter and market-wide stories. Findings argue in the debate but never move the sentiment score.
Multiple outlets report Chipotle opened its first restaurant in Asia, in Seocho-gu, Seoul, South Korea, positioning South Korea as a reference market for broader Asian expansion.
News · finance.yahoo.com · 2026-09-02A similar announcement about the Seoul opening appears via PR Newswire, framing the opening as a significant milestone in Chipotle's global expansion.
News · prnewswire.com · 2026-09-02Reads parsed Forms 3/4/5 — who bought or sold, at what size, and whether a 10b5-1 plan was involved. Flags clustered open-market officer buying; treats plan sales as routine and never counts a fund or 10%-holder as an officer.
No insider transactions on file in the trailing 180 days.
Reads the implied-expectations math built from the company's own filings (the growth rate today's price would justify, and the multiples beside it) and argues whether the market's bar looks high or low for this business. Never turns the math into a target.
Free cash flow for the trailing twelve months (TTM) is reported as 1,654,481,000.
Valuation inputs · SEC XBRL + stored EOD closeCash and cash equivalents as of 2026-06-30 are reported as 228,199,000 and reported long-term debt is 0.0 (debt as of 2025-12-31).
Valuation inputs · SEC XBRL + stored EOD closeDebate and risk review
A bull and a bear contest the claims and the chair rules on each; the risk review stress-tests what survived.
A bull and a bear argue the analysts' claims across two rounds, then a chair rules on each one. Only what survives feeds the score — the argument is shown, not hidden, so you can judge the reasoning yourself.
SEC filing line-items show sequential revenue, operating income, net income and EPS increases from fiscal Q1 2026 to fiscal Q2 2026 (fundamentals-0 through fundamentals-4), and filings also document a reduction in shares outstanding across disclosed dates (fundamentals-6) — together these items form a favorable fundamental read supported by primary-source reporting. Valuation and cash-flow metrics in the dataset report strong trailing-twelve-month free cash flow, high operating cash generation, substantial EBITDA and zero reported long-term debt (valuation-0 through valuation-4), which materially strengthens the credit/cash-flow profile. Multiple independent news outlets and syndication of the Seoul opening (news-0, news-1, news-2, news-3) provide corroborated evidence of an Asia market entry that the filings treat as a milestone, reinforcing growth-read narratives. The bear’s strongest counters rely on thin, noisy, or irrelevant items — a single DCF blurb at GuruFocus, an unrelated firm reference, an ETF membership note with trivial weight, and an unclear shares-outstanding line — which weaken their challenge relative to the primary SEC filings and multiple syndicated news reports.
Chair's verdict, claim by claim
Fragility · computed, not argued
balanced0.33
21 surviving claims rest on 12 distinct sources; the heaviest analyst carries 33% of them, and 93% of what the desk raised survived the debate.
The desk’s read rests on a small set of primary sources (filings and a few media reports) and a single analyst contributes a third of surviving claims, so the conclusions carry useful corroboration but limited independence. The very high survival rate from debate indicates internal agreement, yet source concentration and analyst dependence make the read more fragile to a single new filing or a corrected source than a statement built from many independent data streams.
Disconfirming evidence · base rates · falsifiers
Context
Outside consensus, and where this name already sits in your own portfolio.
Third-party consensus shown for context. It never enters Moneyta sentiment — when the two diverge, the debate above is where the why lives.
What this was built from
Every figure on this page traces to one of these. The desk reads only what is listed here — no outside knowledge, no browsing — and each card shows who read it and what it contributed to the score.
12 filings· 2 cited
SEC XBRL filings
Quarterly figures as filed with the SEC, read straight from EDGAR's structured data — not retyped or estimated.
Read by Mercer+1.0 to the score
1 holdings record
Fund holdings
Which funds hold this name and at what weight, plus insider Form 4 filings.
Read by Ellis+0.0 to the score
8 headlines· 2 cited
News coverage
Recent headlines about this company, rating chatter excluded and nothing published after the report date.
Read by Yatesnothing survived
1 computation
Valuation inputs
TTM cash-flow figures from the company's own XBRL filings, priced with the stored closing price. Implied growth and multiples only; no fair-value dollar figure reaches the desk, by design.
Read by Archercontext only
1 record· 0 cited
Company profile
Sector, industry and company details.
1 record· 0 cited
Analyst consensus
Third-party consensus, shown for context only — it never enters Moneyta sentiment.
Read means we pulled and handed it to an analyst; cited means a claim on this page points at it. Reading twelve quarters to state one trend is normal — the gap is shown rather than hidden.
Written by AI, checked against sources
The analysts, the bull–bear debate and the editor's note are AI agents reading only the evidence listed on this page. They can misread a filing or a headline, which is why every claim cites a source you can open and check yourself. The sentiment score is arithmetic over the claims that survived the debate, not a language model's opinion.
Educational analysis of published data. Moneyta does not give investment advice or make recommendations. Past patterns do not indicate future results.
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The full terminal on CMG Gold
Who holds it, who's buying, what the Street thinks: live behind the lock, updated as filings land.
Institutional holders
Net institutional flow, Q/Q
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Insider buys, 90 days
Clustered insider value
Street target range
The real figures are for members. Educational analysis, not advice.
Educational analysis of published data. Moneyta does not give investment advice or make recommendations.