COF
Capital One Financial CorporationEvidence as of 2026-10-17The desk's Snapshot
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Overview · Capital One Financial Corporation
Capital One Financial Corporation operates as the financial services holding company for the Capital One Bank (USA), National Association; and Capital One, National Association, which provides various financial products and services in the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom. It operates through three segments: Credit Card, Consumer Banking, and Commercial Banking. The company accepts checking accounts, mon…
Management team
- Ms. Kaitlin Burek Haggerty · Chief Human Resources OfficerFind on LinkedIn
- Mr. Timothy P. Golden · Senior VP & ControllerFind on LinkedIn
- Mr. Frank G. LaPrade III, J.D. · Chief Enterprise Services Officer & Chief of Staff to the CEOFind on LinkedIn
- Mr. Sanjiv Yajnik · President of Financial ServicesFind on LinkedIn
Start free to see the full management team.
Links open LinkedIn searches, not verified profiles. Team data from our market-data vendor's company profile.
Moneyta sentiment
Where the published evidence leans after the desk debated it, not a rating or a recommendation.
−0.4 on a −2 to +2 scale.
What builds the score
Solid bars are analyst rubric scores; faded bars are computed directly from data. Claims dropped in debate count for nothing; weakened claims count at half weight.
Editor's note
Written after the debate settled. The rest of the page is the evidence behind it.
Reported revenues rose across the available recent quarters from $ 10,000,000,000 in fiscal Q1 2025 (fiscal quarter ended 2025-04-30) to $ 12,492,000,000 in Q2 2025 (fiscal quarter ended 2025-06-30), $ 15,359,000,000 in Q3 2025 (fiscal quarter ended 2025-09-30) and $ 15,231,000,000 in fiscal Q1 2026 (fiscal quarter ended 2026-04-30). Earnings and per‑share results are volatile: net income swung from $ 1,404,000,000 in fiscal Q1 2025 to a loss of $ 4,277,000,000 in Q2 2025, then to $ 3,192,000,000 in Q3 2025 and $ 2,174,000,000 in fiscal Q1 2026, with diluted EPS following the same pattern (from $ 3.45 to −$ 8.58 to $ 4.83 to $ 3.34).
Balance‑sheet and market data show scale and mixed signals: reported total assets stood at $ 682,905,000,000 as of 2026-03-31 while reported liabilities rose to $ 570,644,000,000 on the same date; common shares outstanding and weighted‑average diluted shares increased materially through mid‑2025 before edging lower to about 622,292,783 shares as of 2026-04-30. Market and valuation metrics are mixed — beta versus SPY is 1.31, short‑to‑medium momentum readings are negative, trailing P/E is 66.36 while price‑to‑FCF is 8.22 (trailing FCF per share $ 24.5573), and dividend yield is 1.59%.
How this note was made
every stage ran before the note was writtenAnalyst desk
Mercer, Oakes, Nash, Ellis, Yates, Talbot and Archer. The desk: named AI agents, not people. Each reads one slice of the evidence and nothing else (no outside knowledge, no browsing), so every finding traces to a source you can open.
Reads the XBRL figures companies file with the SEC (revenue, margins, income, debt and share count, quarter by quarter) and reports which way the trend is running.
Reported revenues increased across the provided quarters from $10,000,000,000 in fiscal Q1 2025 (2025-01-01 to 2025-03-31, 3mo) to $12,492,000,000 in fiscal Q2 2025 (2025-04-01 to 2025-06-30, 3mo), $15,359,000,000 in fiscal Q3 2025 (2025-07-01 to 2025-09-30, 3mo), and $15,231,000,000 in fiscal Q1 2026 (2026-01-01 to 2026-03-31, 3mo).
XBRL companyfacts · 0000927628-25-000141Net income showed large quarter-to-quarter swings: $1,404,000,000 in fiscal Q1 2025 (2025-01-01 to 2025-03-31, 3mo), then a loss of $4,277,000,000 in fiscal Q2 2025 (2025-04-01 to 2025-06-30, 3mo), followed by $3,192,000,000 in fiscal Q3 2025 (2025-07-01 to 2025-09-30, 3mo), and $2,174,000,000 in fiscal Q1 2026 (2026-01-01 to 2026-03-31, 3mo).
XBRL companyfacts · 0000927628-25-000141Reads the filings themselves, above all the year-over-year diff of Item 1A risk factors: which risks a company added, dropped or quietly reworded since its last annual report.
Which filings the desk reads
The desk reads the annual 10-K in full: its risk factors, and how they changed since last year. Quarterly 10-Qs and event filings (8-Ks, insider Form 4s) are listed for context but not read line by line: the 10-K is where the material risk disclosures live. A brand-new company, or one we have only just begun tracking, may have no annual report on file yet; its risk analysis fills in once that lands.
In the 10-K filed 19 Feb 2026, management added extensive risk-factor language saying the company "may not be able to successfully integrate our businesses associated with the Transaction, or such integration may be more difficult, time-consuming or costly than expected," and that the company "has incurred and expect to incur a number of significant non-recurring costs associated with the integration of Discover."
Item 1A risk-factor diff · 0000927628-26-000024 vs 0000927628-25-000092The 10-K filed 19 Feb 2026 also states management's view that the integration could divert a "substantial portion of the time and attention of our management team" and could cause "employee attrition," potentially adversely affecting operations and results during the integration period.
Item 1A risk-factor diff · 0000927628-26-000024 vs 0000927628-25-000092Reads the signal panel above (momentum, volatility, drawdown, relative strength and beta) and ranks each against the whole research universe rather than judging it in isolation.
Beta versus SPY is 1.31 and correlation versus SPY is 0.53 as of 2026-10-16.
Moneyta signal set · 2026-10-16Short- to medium-term momentum readings are negative: momentum_3m = -2.4%, momentum_6m = -1.9%, and momentum_12_1 = -8.9%; the 12-1 momentum ranks at the 26th percentile of the 882-stock research universe on 2026-10-16.
Moneyta signal set · 2026-10-16Reads which funds hold the name and at what weight, plus insider Form 4 filings, to show the exposure you may already carry through index funds.
As of the 13F reporting period ended 2026-06-30, institutional holders reported a total position value of "$106.49B" across 2,135 holders.
13F holdings · 2135 filers · as of 2026-06-30Top institutional holders in the 2026-06-30 13F include BlackRock, Inc. at "$10.24B", VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC at "$8.15B", and STATE STREET CORP at "$5.58B".
13F holdings · 2135 filers · as of 2026-06-30Reads recent headlines that are genuinely about this company, ignoring rating chatter and market-wide stories. Findings argue in the debate but never move the sentiment score.
Several outlets are running coverage framed around Capital One’s upcoming third-quarter 2026 earnings and what investors want to see when those results are released.
News · cnbc.com · 2026-10-16Multiple headlines note fresh OCC scrutiny and broader ‘debanking’ scrutiny of Capital One’s customer risk policies as a prominent theme in recent coverage.
News · simplywall.st · 2026-10-15Reads parsed Forms 3/4/5: who bought or sold, at what size, and whether a 10b5-1 plan was involved. Flags clustered open-market officer buying; treats plan sales as routine and never counts a fund or 10%-holder as an officer.
Celia Karam (Pres, Retail Bank) sold 2,017 shares for $416k on 2026-09-15 under a stated 10b5-1 plan.
Form 4 · Karam Celia (Pres, Retail Bank) · $416k sold · 2026-09-15Lia Dean (Pres, Banking & Prem. Products) sold 2,066 shares for $426k on 2026-09-15 under a stated 10b5-1 plan.
Form 4 · Dean Lia (Pres, Banking & Prem. Products) · $426k sold · 2026-09-15Reads the implied-expectations math built from the company's own filings (the growth rate today's price would justify, and the multiples beside it) and argues whether the market's bar looks high or low for this business. Never turns the math into a target.
At the price 201.74, the model-implied free cash flow (FCF) growth rate that price would justify (under the stated discount and terminal assumptions) is -11.16%.
Valuation inputs · SEC XBRL + stored EOD closeTrailing twelve‑month free cash flow is 15,309,000,000 and FCF per share is 24.5573, which produces a price-to-FCF multiple of 8.22 at the stated price.
Valuation inputs · SEC XBRL + stored EOD closeDebate and risk review
A bull and a bear contest the claims and the chair rules on each; the risk review stress-tests what survived.
A bull and a bear argue the analysts' claims across two rounds, then a chair rules on each one. Only what survives feeds the score. The argument is shown, not hidden, so you can judge the reasoning yourself.
Several claims jointly support a favorable read: reported revenues showed a clear upward path across the provided quarters and trailing operating cash flow and free cash flow are large and internally consistent with the reported FCF per share and a low price-to-FCF multiple. Share repurchases expanded materially over the period, and institutional and ETF ownership is substantial, which together suggest capital-return activity and broad investor participation. Market signals such as relatively low volatility versus peers and positive dividend-growth metrics further strengthen the cash‑flow‑and-income profile. While earnings per‑share and net income experienced quarter‑to‑quarter swings and the filings note integration and regulatory risks, the cash‑flow metrics and growing revenues indicate the company’s underlying cash generation has remained robust through the reported quarters, which historically can support valuation when accounting earnings are volatile.
Chair's verdict, claim by claim
Fragility · computed, not argued
balanced0.31
42 surviving claims rest on 21 distinct sources; the heaviest analyst carries 19% of them, and 100% of what the desk raised survived the debate.
The surviving-read set is moderately robust: claims draw on two dozen sources, so the picture isn’t driven by a single document, but a single analyst still supplies nearly a fifth of the surviving claims and every item raised by the desk survived the internal debate — both facts increase sensitivity to individual viewpoints and to the dataset’s blind spots. Interpretations that rely on integration-risk language or on a particular market signal should be treated as informational snapshots rather than heavily weighted conclusions given that the desk’s outputs are concentrated and fully persistent through review.
Peer context · computed, not argued
12-1 momentum ranks 5th of 8 in Credit Services (as of 2026-10-16).
90-day volatility ranks 5th of 8 in Credit Services (as of 2026-10-16).
dividend yield ranks 2nd of 8 in Credit Services (as of 2026-10-16).
Disconfirming evidence · base rates · falsifiers
Context
Outside consensus, and where this name already sits in your own portfolio.
Third-party consensus shown for context. It never enters Moneyta sentiment. When the two diverge, the debate above is where the why lives.
What this was built from
Every figure on this page traces to one of these. The desk reads only what is listed here (no outside knowledge, no browsing), and each card shows who read it and what it contributed to the score.
11 filings· 2 cited
SEC XBRL filings
Quarterly figures as filed with the SEC, read straight from EDGAR's structured data, not retyped or estimated.
Read by Mercer−0.1 to the score
13 documents· 2 cited
SEC filing documents
The filings themselves, including the year-over-year comparison of Item 1A risk factors.
Read by Oakes−0.8 to the score
1 signal set
Moneyta signal set
Computed from our own end-of-day price history and ranked against the whole research universe. No AI involved.
Read by Nash+0.0 to the score
3 holdings records· 1 cited
Fund holdings
Which funds hold this name and at what weight, plus insider Form 4 filings.
Read by Ellis+0.8 to the score
8 headlines· 2 cited
News coverage
Recent headlines about this company, rating chatter excluded and nothing published after the report date.
Read by Yatesnothing survived
15 filings· 2 cited
Insider filings
Parsed Forms 3/4/5 from EDGAR: named insiders, share counts, prices, and 10b5-1 plan state, with stated and inferred flags kept apart.
Read by Talbot−0.5 to the score
1 computation
Valuation inputs
TTM cash-flow figures from the company's own XBRL filings, priced with the stored closing price. Implied growth and multiples only; no fair-value dollar figure reaches the desk, by design.
Read by Archercontext only
1 record· 0 cited
Company profile
Sector, industry and company details.
1 record· 0 cited
Analyst consensus
Third-party consensus, shown for context only; it never enters Moneyta sentiment.
Read means we pulled and handed it to an analyst; cited means a claim on this page points at it. Reading twelve quarters to state one trend is normal; the gap is shown rather than hidden.
Written by AI, checked against sources
The analysts, the bull–bear debate and the editor's note are AI agents reading only the evidence listed on this page. They can misread a filing or a headline, which is why every claim cites a source you can open and check yourself. The sentiment score is arithmetic over the claims that survived the debate, not a language model's opinion.
Educational analysis of published data. Moneyta does not give investment advice or make recommendations. Past patterns do not indicate future results.
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Institutional holders
Net institutional flow, Q/Q
Largest holder position
Insider buys, 90 days
Clustered insider value
Street target range
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