COF
Capital One Financial CorporationEvidence as of 2026-09-02Overview · Capital One Financial Corporation
Capital One Financial Corporation operates as the financial services holding company for the Capital One Bank (USA), National Association; and Capital One, National Association, which provides various financial products and services in the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom. It operates through three segments: Credit Card, Consumer Banking, and Commercial Banking. The company accepts checking accounts, mon…
Management team
- Ms. Kaitlin Burek Haggerty · Chief Human Resources OfficerFind on LinkedIn
- Mr. Timothy P. Golden · Senior VP & ControllerFind on LinkedIn
- Mr. Frank G. LaPrade III, J.D. · Chief Enterprise Services Officer & Chief of Staff to the CEOFind on LinkedIn
- Mr. Sanjiv Yajnik · President of Financial ServicesFind on LinkedIn
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Links open LinkedIn searches, not verified profiles. Team data from our market-data vendor's company profile.
Moneyta sentiment
Where the published evidence leans after the desk debated it — not a rating or a recommendation.
−0.1 on a −2 to +2 scale.
What builds the score
Solid bars are analyst rubric scores; faded bars are computed directly from data. Claims dropped in debate count for nothing; weakened claims count at half weight.
Editor's note
Written after the debate settled — the rest of the page is the evidence behind it.
The evidence balance is Mixed ( -0.1 of a possible +2; confidence high). Reported GAAP revenues rose from $10,000,000,000 in fiscal Q1 2025 (fiscal quarter ended 2025-04-30) to $12,492,000,000 in Q2 2025 (fiscal quarter ended 2025-06-30) and $15,359,000,000 in Q3 2025 (fiscal quarter ended 2025-09-30), with revenues of $15,231,000,000 in Q1 2026 (fiscal quarter ended 2026-04-30). Net income shows material volatility: $1,404,000,000 in fiscal Q1 2025, negative $4,277,000,000 in Q2 2025, $3,192,000,000 in Q3 2025, and $2,172,400,000 in Q1 2026.
The company’s share count expanded materially over the window, with diluted weighted‑average shares rising from 384,000,000 in fiscal Q1 2025 to 639,500,000 in Q3 2025 and 623,400,000 in Q1 2026; reported common shares outstanding were ~ 381,922,067 as of 2024-04-30 and 622,292,783 as of 2026-04-30. Trailing twelve‑month free cash flow is $15,309,000,000 (FCF per share $24.5573, price-to-FCF 8.61 at $211.34), trailing EPS $3.04 (trailing P/E 69.52), enterprise value $175,393,356,759 and market cap $131,515,356,759. Market signals show a golden cross in place (cross age 9 days) and above‑market sensitivity with beta 1.32; 90‑day volatility is 28.9% ( 62nd percentile).
How this note was made
every stage ran before the note was writtenAnalyst desk
Mercer, Oakes, Nash, Ellis, Yates, Talbot and Archer. The desk: named AI agents, not people. Each reads one slice of the evidence and nothing else — no outside knowledge, no browsing — so every finding traces to a source you can open.
Reads the XBRL figures companies file with the SEC — revenue, margins, income, debt and share count, quarter by quarter — and reports which way the trend is running.
Reported GAAP revenues were $10,000,000,000 for the fiscal Q1 2025 (2025-01-01 to 2025-03-31, 3mo) and rose to $12,492,000,000 in fiscal Q2 2025 (2025-04-01 to 2025-06-30, 3mo) and $15,359,000,000 in fiscal Q3 2025 (2025-07-01 to 2025-09-30, 3mo), with revenues of $15,231,000,000 in fiscal Q1 2026 (2026-01-01 to 2026-03-31, 3mo).
XBRL companyfacts · 0000927628-25-000141Net income (GAAP) shows volatility over the same window: $1,404,000,000 in fiscal Q1 2025 (2025-01-01 to 2025-03-31, 3mo), negative $4,277,000,000 in fiscal Q2 2025 (2025-04-01 to 2025-06-30, 3mo), $3,192,000,000 in fiscal Q3 2025 (2025-07-01 to 2025-09-30, 3mo), and $2,172,400,000 in fiscal Q1 2026 (2026-01-01 to 2026-03-31, 3mo).
XBRL companyfacts · 0000927628-25-000141Reads the filings themselves, above all the year-over-year diff of Item 1A risk factors: which risks a company added, dropped or quietly reworded since its last annual report.
Which filings the desk reads
The desk reads the annual 10-K in full — its risk factors, and how they changed since last year. Quarterly 10-Qs and event filings (8-Ks, insider Form 4s) are listed for context but not read line by line: the 10-K is where the material risk disclosures live. A brand-new company, or one we have only just begun tracking, may have no annual report on file yet — its risk analysis fills in once that lands.
The Company announced it will redeem all 1,000,000 outstanding shares of its Series M Preferred Stock on September 1, 2026, at a redemption price of $1,000 per share.
8-K filed 2026-08-20Regular dividends on the Series M Preferred Stock will be paid separately on the Series M Redemption Date to holders of record as of the close of business on August 17, 2026, and dividends will cease to accrue on and after September 1, 2026.
8-K filed 2026-08-20Reads the signal panel above — momentum, volatility, drawdown, relative strength and beta — and ranks each against the whole research universe rather than judging it in isolation.
Momentum over the last 3 months is +15.0% and momentum over 6 months is +9.6%, with 6-month momentum at the 57th percentile of the 547-stock research universe.
Moneyta signal set · 2026-09-01weakened in debateThe security has a golden cross in place (price above its shorter-term and longer-term moving averages) with the cross age 9 days and price vs SMA50 at +0.3% and price vs SMA200 at +2.3%.
Moneyta signal set · 2026-09-01Reads which funds hold the name and at what weight, plus insider Form 4 filings, to show the exposure you may already carry through index funds.
As of 2026-09-02, the company is a constituent of the XLF ETF with a reported weight of 1.0% of that fund.
ETF constituents · market dataAs of 2026-09-02, the company appears in several large-cap and broad-market ETFs with smaller reported weights: VTV 0.3%, SCHB 0.21%, IVV 0.19%, SCHX 0.14%, VOO 0.14%, and JEPI 0.12% of those funds.
ETF constituents · market dataReads recent headlines that are genuinely about this company, ignoring rating chatter and market-wide stories. Findings argue in the debate but never move the sentiment score.
Two distinct outlets reported that Capital One removed or eliminated its Series M preferred stock after a full redemption (coverage dated 1–2 September 2026).
News · gurufocus.com · 2026-09-02A separate outlet also reported the corporate-charter removal of the Series M preferred shares on 1 September 2026.
News · kalkinemedia.com · 2026-09-01Reads parsed Forms 3/4/5 — who bought or sold, at what size, and whether a 10b5-1 plan was involved. Flags clustered open-market officer buying; treats plan sales as routine and never counts a fund or 10%-holder as an officer.
Celia Karam (President, Retail Bank) reported sales on 17 August 2026 of 1,887 shares valued at "$426k" and 1 share valued at "$226" under a stated 10b5-1 plan.
Form 4 · Karam Celia (Pres, Retail Bank) · $426k sold · 2026-08-17Lia Dean (President, Banking & Prem. Products) reported sales on 17 August 2026 of 2,192 shares valued at "$494k" and 1 share valued at "$226" under a stated 10b5-1 plan.
Form 4 · Dean Lia (Pres, Banking & Prem. Products) · $494k sold · 2026-08-17Reads the implied-expectations math built from the company's own filings (the growth rate today's price would justify, and the multiples beside it) and argues whether the market's bar looks high or low for this business. Never turns the math into a target.
The model-derived implied free cash flow (FCF) growth rate that today's price would justify is -10.17% (a decline of 10.17% per year under the stated discount and terminal assumptions).
Valuation inputs · SEC XBRL + stored EOD closeTrailing twelve-month free cash flow is $15,309,000,000 and free cash flow per share is $24.5573, producing a price-to-FCF multiple of 8.61 at the reported price of $211.34.
Valuation inputs · SEC XBRL + stored EOD closeDebate and risk review
A bull and a bear contest the claims and the chair rules on each; the risk review stress-tests what survived.
A bull and a bear argue the analysts' claims across two rounds, then a chair rules on each one. Only what survives feeds the score — the argument is shown, not hidden, so you can judge the reasoning yourself.
Multiple independent lines of evidence in the record jointly support a favorable read. Reported quarterly revenues rose materially across the 2025 fiscal quarters into early 2026 (fundamentals-0) while operating cash generation increased over the comparable periods (fundamentals-5); both items are documented in company filings and are strong evidence of improved top-line and cash-flow scale. The company materially increased share-repurchase cash outflows (fundamentals-4) and the trailing-12-month price-to-FCF multiple is low versus the reported FCF per share (valuation-1); these items — filing-sourced for repurchases and model-derived for FCF multiples — are medium-to-strong evidence of shareholder-return activity and cash-flow valuation support. Short-term market indicators (momentum +15% and a recent golden-cross, market-0 and market-1) and multiple sell-side buy ratings in the consensus provide additional market-confirmation signals (market and third-party consensus), though these are medium-strength, market-timing style signals rather than fundamental proof.
Chair's verdict, claim by claim
Fragility · computed, not argued
balanced0.31
34 surviving claims rest on 17 distinct sources; the heaviest analyst carries 18% of them, and 97% of what the desk raised survived the debate.
The surviving set rests on a moderate breadth of primary documents but a relatively small number of distinct sources; because one analyst accounts for a notable share of claims and nearly all claims survived the internal debate, the read is internally consistent but vulnerable to shared assumptions or a dominant analyst’s framing. In short: the evidence is coherent and durable within the desk’s review, but external corroboration or independent sources would strengthen confidence before assigning heavy weight to any single claim.
Peer context · computed, not argued
12-1 momentum ranks 3rd of 6 in Credit Services (as of 2026-09-01).
6-month relative strength ranks 4th of 6 in Credit Services (as of 2026-09-01).
90-day volatility ranks 3rd of 6 in Credit Services (as of 2026-09-01).
dividend yield ranks 1st of 6 in Credit Services (as of 2026-09-01).
Disconfirming evidence · base rates · falsifiers
Context
Outside consensus, and where this name already sits in your own portfolio.
Third-party consensus shown for context. It never enters Moneyta sentiment — when the two diverge, the debate above is where the why lives.
What this was built from
Every figure on this page traces to one of these. The desk reads only what is listed here — no outside knowledge, no browsing — and each card shows who read it and what it contributed to the score.
17 filings· 1 cited
SEC XBRL filings
Quarterly figures as filed with the SEC, read straight from EDGAR's structured data — not retyped or estimated.
Read by Mercer+0.2 to the score
6 documents· 2 cited
SEC filing documents
The filings themselves, including the year-over-year comparison of Item 1A risk factors.
Read by Oakes+0.0 to the score
1 signal set
Moneyta signal set
Computed from our own end-of-day price history and ranked against the whole research universe. No AI involved.
Read by Nash+0.0 to the score
2 holdings records· 1 cited
Fund holdings
Which funds hold this name and at what weight, plus insider Form 4 filings.
Read by Ellis+0.3 to the score
8 headlines· 2 cited
News coverage
Recent headlines about this company, rating chatter excluded and nothing published after the report date.
Read by Yatesnothing survived
3 filings· 2 cited
Insider filings
Parsed Forms 3/4/5 from EDGAR: named insiders, share counts, prices, and 10b5-1 plan state — stated and inferred flags kept apart.
Read by Talbot−1.0 to the score
1 computation
Valuation inputs
TTM cash-flow figures from the company's own XBRL filings, priced with the stored closing price. Implied growth and multiples only; no fair-value dollar figure reaches the desk, by design.
Read by Archercontext only
1 record· 0 cited
Company profile
Sector, industry and company details.
1 record· 0 cited
Analyst consensus
Third-party consensus, shown for context only — it never enters Moneyta sentiment.
Read means we pulled and handed it to an analyst; cited means a claim on this page points at it. Reading twelve quarters to state one trend is normal — the gap is shown rather than hidden.
Written by AI, checked against sources
The analysts, the bull–bear debate and the editor's note are AI agents reading only the evidence listed on this page. They can misread a filing or a headline, which is why every claim cites a source you can open and check yourself. The sentiment score is arithmetic over the claims that survived the debate, not a language model's opinion.
Educational analysis of published data. Moneyta does not give investment advice or make recommendations. Past patterns do not indicate future results.
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The full terminal on COF Gold
Who holds it, who's buying, what the Street thinks: live behind the lock, updated as filings land.
Institutional holders
Net institutional flow, Q/Q
Largest holder position
Insider buys, 90 days
Clustered insider value
Street target range
The real figures are for members. Educational analysis, not advice.
Educational analysis of published data. Moneyta does not give investment advice or make recommendations.