COP
CONOCOPHILLIPSEvidence as of 2026-09-09The desk's Snapshot
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Overview · CONOCOPHILLIPS
ConocoPhillips explores for, produces, transports, and markets crude oil, bitumen, natural gas, liquefied natural gas (LNG), and natural gas liquids in the United States and internationally. The company's portfolio includes unconventional plays in North America; conventional assets in North America, Europe, Asia, and Australia; various LNG developments; oil sands assets in Canada; and an inventory of global explorati…
Management team
- Mr. Nicholas G. Olds · Executive Vice President of Lower 48Find on LinkedIn
- Ms. Kelly Brunetti Rose J.D. · Senior VP of Legal, General Counsel & Corporate SecretaryFind on LinkedIn
- Mr. Andrew M. O'Brien · Senior Vice President of Strategy, Commercial, Sustainability & TechnologyFind on LinkedIn
- Mr. William L. Bullock Jr. · Executive VP & CFOFind on LinkedIn
Start free to see the full management team.
Links open LinkedIn searches, not verified profiles. Team data from our market-data vendor's company profile.
Moneyta sentiment
Where the published evidence leans after the desk debated it, not a rating or a recommendation.
−0.3 on a −2 to +2 scale (was −0.2 before the debate changed the read).
What builds the score
Solid bars are analyst rubric scores; faded bars are computed directly from data. Claims dropped in debate count for nothing; weakened claims count at half weight.
Editor's note
Written after the debate settled. The rest of the page is the evidence behind it.
Total revenues for the fiscal quarter ended 2026-06-30 ( Q2 2026 ) were $ 19,161,000,000, up from $ 15,761,000,000 in the fiscal quarter ended 2026-03-31 ( Q1 2026 ) and $ 14,004,000,000 in the fiscal quarter ended 2025-06-30 ( Q2 2025 ). Net income for Q2 2026 was $ 3,931,000,000 versus $ 2,183,000,000 in Q1 2026 and $ 1,971,000,000 in Q2 2025, while diluted EPS rose to $ 3.23 in Q2 2026 from $ 1.78 in Q1 2026 and $ 1.56 in Q2 2025.
The company’s share count fell across the reporting dates to 1,201,337,479 as of 2026-06-30 and repurchases of $ 1,006,000,000 were recorded in Q1 2026, consistent with weighted-average diluted shares declining from 1,224,960,000 in Q1 2026 to 1,214,255,000 in Q2 2026. Total assets increased to $ 124,261,000,000 as of 2026-06-30 from $ 121,939,000,000 as of 2025-12-31, and stockholders’ equity moved to $ 65,349,000,000 from $ 64,487,000,000 over the same span.
How this note was made
every stage ran before the note was writtenAnalyst desk
Mercer, Oakes, Nash, Ellis, Yates, Talbot and Archer. The desk: named AI agents, not people. Each reads one slice of the evidence and nothing else (no outside knowledge, no browsing), so every finding traces to a source you can open.
Reads the XBRL figures companies file with the SEC (revenue, margins, income, debt and share count, quarter by quarter) and reports which way the trend is running.
Total revenues for the quarter ended 30 June 2026 were $19,161,000,000, up from $15,761,000,000 for the quarter ended 31 March 2026 and $14,004,000,000 for the quarter ended 30 June 2025.
XBRL companyfacts · 0001163165-26-000032Diluted earnings per share rose to $3.23 for the fiscal Q2 2026 (2026-04-01 to 2026-06-30, 3mo) from $1.78 in fiscal Q1 2026 (2026-01-01 to 2026-03-31, 3mo) and $1.56 in fiscal Q2 2025 (2025-04-01 to 2025-06-30, 3mo).
XBRL companyfacts · 0001163165-26-000032Reads the filings themselves, above all the year-over-year diff of Item 1A risk factors: which risks a company added, dropped or quietly reworded since its last annual report.
Which filings the desk reads
The desk reads the annual 10-K in full: its risk factors, and how they changed since last year. Quarterly 10-Qs and event filings (8-Ks, insider Form 4s) are listed for context but not read line by line: the 10-K is where the material risk disclosures live. A brand-new company, or one we have only just begun tracking, may have no annual report on file yet; its risk analysis fills in once that lands.
The company added risk language stating that potential investments in low carbon opportunities may expose the company to "numerous financial, legal, operational, reputational and other risks" and may not materially reduce operational emissions, and that success depends in part on cooperation of government agencies and development of relevant markets.
10-K filed 2026-02-17The company added risk language that its ability to sell and deliver produced crude oil, bitumen, LNG, natural gas and NGLs depends on availability, proximity and capacity of gathering, processing, compression, transportation and pipeline facilities and necessary diluents, and that these may be temporarily unavailable for many reasons.
10-K filed 2026-02-17Reads the signal panel above (momentum, volatility, drawdown, relative strength and beta) and ranks each against the whole research universe rather than judging it in isolation.
Momentum measures are positive: 3-month momentum +13.6% and 6-month momentum +16.2%, with the 6-month momentum at the 71th percentile of the 548-stock research universe on 2026-09-08.
Moneyta signal set · 2026-09-08weakened in debateLonger-horizon momentum is also elevated: 12-1 momentum is +30.5% and its cross-sectional rank is the 69th percentile of 548 on 2026-09-08.
Moneyta signal set · 2026-09-08weakened in debateReads which funds hold the name and at what weight, plus insider Form 4 filings, to show the exposure you may already carry through index funds.
ConocoPhillips (symbol COP) is held in Vanguard High Dividend Yield ETF (VYM) at 0.62% of that fund as of 2026-09-02.
ETF constituents · market dataConocoPhillips is held in Vanguard Value ETF (VTV) at 0.60% of that fund as of 2026-09-02.
ETF constituents · market dataReads recent headlines that are genuinely about this company, ignoring rating chatter and market-wide stories. Findings argue in the debate but never move the sentiment score.
A headline on 8 September 2026 frames ConocoPhillips as being 'in focus' in the context of oil firms and management transitions, indicating coverage tied to company leadership and sector context.
News · kalkinemedia.com · 2026-09-08A separate headline on 8 September 2026 addresses ConocoPhillips in the context of price movements and institutional liquidity models, indicating market/price-action coverage rather than operational detail.
News · news.stocktradersdaily.com · 2026-09-08Reads parsed Forms 3/4/5: who bought or sold, at what size, and whether a 10b5-1 plan was involved. Flags clustered open-market officer buying; treats plan sales as routine and never counts a fund or 10%-holder as an officer.
Andrew D. Lundquist, Senior Vice President, sold 9,487 shares for a total value of "$1.3M" on 2026-08-21.
Form 4 · LUNDQUIST ANDREW D (Senior Vice President) · $1.3M sold · 2026-08-21Kelly Brunetti Rose, SVP & General Counsel, sold 15,000 shares for a total value of "$2.0M" on 2026-08-20.
Form 4 · Rose Kelly Brunetti (SVP & General Counsel) · $2.0M sold · 2026-08-20Reads the implied-expectations math built from the company's own filings (the growth rate today's price would justify, and the multiples beside it) and argues whether the market's bar looks high or low for this business. Never turns the math into a target.
At the price 135.04 on 2026-09-08, the model finds an implied free cash flow (FCF) growth rate of -4.64% (the FCF growth rate today's price would justify under the stated discount and terminal assumptions).
Valuation inputs · SEC XBRL + stored EOD closeTrailing twelve-month free cash flow (FCF) is 14,777,000,000 (FCF_TTM = 14,777,000,000) as reported in the inputs.
Valuation inputs · SEC XBRL + stored EOD closeDebate and risk review
A bull and a bear contest the claims and the chair rules on each; the risk review stress-tests what survived.
A bull and a bear argue the analysts' claims across two rounds, then a chair rules on each one. Only what survives feeds the score. The argument is shown, not hidden, so you can judge the reasoning yourself.
Several recent operational and market claims together form a materially favorable reading. Quarterly revenues, net income and diluted EPS show strong sequential and year-over-year improvement (fundamentals-0, fundamentals-1, fundamentals-2), supported by a meaningful reduction in diluted share count and active share repurchases (fundamentals-3, fundamentals-4) — these items strengthen per-share metrics and are corroborated by reported returns of capital and historical repurchase activity (filings-4). Free cash flow levels and simple valuation multiples (valuation-1, valuation-2, valuation-3) provide concrete cash-generation context behind the earnings, while multiple momentum and technical measures (market-0, market-1, market-2, market-3) indicate positive market positioning and lower co-movement with the broad market. In rebuttal to bear points: regulatory/risk disclosure updates and operational delivery risks (filings-0, filings-1, filings-2) are standard expanded risk language and do not negate the contemporaneous cash-flow and earnings evidence (fundamentals and valuation claims); elevated volatility and historical drawdown metrics (market-4, market-5) are real but coexist with strong recent momentum and above-average income metrics (market-0, market-1, market-6). Evidence strength: fundamentals and repurchase claims — strong (direct SEC-sourced figures); FCF and multiples — moderate to strong (model inputs provided); market momentum/technicals — moderate (cross-sectional ranks present); filings on risks and insider sales — moderate (SEC filings present but are disclosure/transaction records).
Chair's verdict, claim by claim
Fragility · computed, not argued
balanced0.39
37 surviving claims rest on 13 distinct sources; the heaviest analyst carries 19% of them, and 96% of what the desk raised survived the debate.
The evidence set is reasonably broad (13 distinct sources) but many surviving claims persisted through debate (96% survival), which raises the possibility of confirmation persistence in the desk review. Reliance is not highly concentrated in a single analyst (the largest contributor accounts for ~19%), so individual-analyst bias is limited, but the relatively high survival rate means readers should treat the read as stable but somewhat brittle to new contradictory filings or price moves.
Peer context · computed, not argued
12-1 momentum ranks 1st of 2 in Oil & Gas E&P (as of 2026-09-08).
90-day volatility ranks 2nd of 2 in Oil & Gas E&P (as of 2026-09-08).
dividend yield ranks 2nd of 2 in Oil & Gas E&P (as of 2026-09-08).
Disconfirming evidence · base rates · falsifiers
Context
Outside consensus, and where this name already sits in your own portfolio.
Third-party consensus shown for context. It never enters Moneyta sentiment. When the two diverge, the debate above is where the why lives.
What this was built from
Every figure on this page traces to one of these. The desk reads only what is listed here (no outside knowledge, no browsing), and each card shows who read it and what it contributed to the score.
11 filings· 2 cited
SEC XBRL filings
Quarterly figures as filed with the SEC, read straight from EDGAR's structured data, not retyped or estimated.
Read by Mercer+1.0 to the score
10 documents· 3 cited
SEC filing documents
The filings themselves, including the year-over-year comparison of Item 1A risk factors.
Read by Oakes−0.2 to the score
1 signal set
Moneyta signal set
Computed from our own end-of-day price history and ranked against the whole research universe. No AI involved.
Read by Nash+0.2 to the score
3 holdings records· 1 cited
Fund holdings
Which funds hold this name and at what weight, plus insider Form 4 filings.
Read by Ellis+0.2 to the score
2 headlines
News coverage
Recent headlines about this company, rating chatter excluded and nothing published after the report date.
Read by Yatesnothing survived
2 filings
Insider filings
Parsed Forms 3/4/5 from EDGAR: named insiders, share counts, prices, and 10b5-1 plan state, with stated and inferred flags kept apart.
Read by Talbot−0.8 to the score
1 computation
Valuation inputs
TTM cash-flow figures from the company's own XBRL filings, priced with the stored closing price. Implied growth and multiples only; no fair-value dollar figure reaches the desk, by design.
Read by Archercontext only
1 record· 0 cited
Company profile
Sector, industry and company details.
1 record· 0 cited
Analyst consensus
Third-party consensus, shown for context only; it never enters Moneyta sentiment.
Read means we pulled and handed it to an analyst; cited means a claim on this page points at it. Reading twelve quarters to state one trend is normal; the gap is shown rather than hidden.
Written by AI, checked against sources
The analysts, the bull–bear debate and the editor's note are AI agents reading only the evidence listed on this page. They can misread a filing or a headline, which is why every claim cites a source you can open and check yourself. The sentiment score is arithmetic over the claims that survived the debate, not a language model's opinion.
Educational analysis of published data. Moneyta does not give investment advice or make recommendations. Past patterns do not indicate future results.
The full terminal on COP Gold
Who holds it, who's buying, what the Street thinks: live behind the lock, updated as filings land.
Institutional holders
Net institutional flow, Q/Q
Largest holder position
Insider buys, 90 days
Clustered insider value
Street target range
The real figures are for members. Educational analysis, not advice.
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Educational analysis of published data. Moneyta does not give investment advice or make recommendations.