COST
COSTCO WHOLESALE CORP /NEWEvidence as of 2026-09-15The desk's Snapshot
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Overview · COSTCO WHOLESALE CORP /NEW
Costco Wholesale Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the operation of membership warehouses in the United States, Puerto Rico, Canada, the United Kingdom, Mexico, Japan, Korea, Australia, Spain, France, Iceland, China, and Taiwan. It offers branded and private-label products in a range of merchandise categories. The company offers sundries, dry groceries, candies, coolers, freezers, liquor, and to…
Management team
- Peter Gruening · Senior VP of Membership, Marketing & Member Service CentersFind on LinkedIn
- Sheri Flies · Senior Vice President of Global Sustainability & ComplianceFind on LinkedIn
- Mr. Russell D. Miller · Senior EVP and COO of Warehouse Operations - U.S. & MexicoFind on LinkedIn
- Mr. Pierre Riel · Executive VP & COO of International DivisionFind on LinkedIn
Start free to see the full management team.
Links open LinkedIn searches, not verified profiles. Team data from our market-data vendor's company profile.
Moneyta sentiment
Where the published evidence leans after the desk debated it, not a rating or a recommendation.
−0.1 on a −2 to +2 scale.
What builds the score
Solid bars are analyst rubric scores; faded bars are computed directly from data. Claims dropped in debate count for nothing; weakened claims count at half weight.
Editor's note
Written after the debate settled. The rest of the page is the evidence behind it.
The desk rates the evidence balance Mixed ( -0.1 of a possible +2; was -0.1 before debate) · confidence high. Revenue rose sequentially across fiscal Q1 2026 (fiscal quarter ended 2025-12-10) = $ 67,307,000,000 → fiscal Q2 2026 (fiscal quarter ended 2026-03-04) = $ 69,597,000,000 → fiscal Q3 2026 (fiscal quarter ended 2026-05-27) = $ 70,527,000,000, with the dollar increase slowing from + $ 2,290,000,000 (Q1→Q2) to + $ 930,000,000 (Q2→Q3). Operating income also rose each quarter — $ 2,463,000,000 → $ 2,606,000,000 → $ 2,815,000,000 — producing operating margins of ~ 3.66% (Q1), ~ 3.75% (Q2) and ~ 3.99% (Q3). Net income and diluted EPS similarly moved higher each quarter (net income: $ 2,000,000,000 → $ 2,035,000,000 → $ 2,192,000,000; diluted EPS: $ 4.50 → $ 4.58 → $ 4.93).
Liquidity and balance-sheet items improved on the reported dates, with cash and cash equivalents rising to $ 18,946,000,000 as of 2026-05-10 and stockholders’ equity increasing to $ 33,509,000,000 on the same date. Long-term noncurrent debt was essentially stable around ~$ 5.67B across the reporting dates. Filings show FY 2025 net sales up $ 20,287 ( 8% ), driven by $ 14,788 ( 6% ) comparable-sales growth and 24 net new warehouses, and FY 2025 net income rose 10% to $ 8,099 ( $ 18.21 per diluted share ). Market signals are mixed to weakened: three‑month momentum -6.5% and six‑month momentum -8.7% as of 2026-09-14, six‑month relative strength versus SPY -23.9%, beta versus SPY -0.16, and trailing valuation multiples appear rich (P/E TTM = 50.24; price/FCF = 39.57; model-implied FCF growth to justify the price = 26.5% per year). Institutional ownership is substantial (13F holdings $ 304.71B as of 2026-03-31), with major reported positions from BlackRock and Vanguard.
How this note was made
every stage ran before the note was writtenAnalyst desk
Mercer, Oakes, Nash, Ellis, Yates, Talbot and Archer. The desk: named AI agents, not people. Each reads one slice of the evidence and nothing else (no outside knowledge, no browsing), so every finding traces to a source you can open.
Reads the XBRL figures companies file with the SEC (revenue, margins, income, debt and share count, quarter by quarter) and reports which way the trend is running.
Revenue (three-months) increased quarter-to-quarter in fiscal Q1 2026 (2025-09-01 to 2025-11-23, 3mo) = $67,307,000,000; fiscal Q2 2026 (2025-11-24 to 2026-02-15, 3mo) = $69,597,000,000; fiscal Q3 2026 (2026-02-16 to 2026-05-10, 3mo) = $70,527,000,000, with the sequential dollar increase falling from +$2,290M (Q1→Q2) to +$930M (Q2→Q3).
XBRL companyfacts · 0000909832-25-000169Operating income (three-months) rose each quarter: fiscal Q1 2026 = $2,463,000,000; fiscal Q2 2026 = $2,606,000,000; fiscal Q3 2026 = $2,815,000,000, producing operating margins of ~3.66% (Q1), ~3.75% (Q2) and ~3.99% (Q3) when dividing operating income by the reported quarterly revenues.
XBRL companyfacts · 0000909832-26-000029Reads the filings themselves, above all the year-over-year diff of Item 1A risk factors: which risks a company added, dropped or quietly reworded since its last annual report.
Which filings the desk reads
The desk reads the annual 10-K in full: its risk factors, and how they changed since last year. Quarterly 10-Qs and event filings (8-Ks, insider Form 4s) are listed for context but not read line by line: the 10-K is where the material risk disclosures live. A brand-new company, or one we have only just begun tracking, may have no annual report on file yet; its risk analysis fills in once that lands.
The company reported net sales increased $20,287 (8%) in fiscal 2025, driven primarily by a $14,788 (6%) increase in comparable sales and sales from 24 net new warehouses opened since the end of 2024.
10-K filed 2025-10-08Net income for fiscal 2025 increased 10% to $8,099 (or $18.21 per diluted share) compared to $7,367 (or $16.56 per diluted share) in 2024, with foreign-exchange rates having a negative impact of $97 (about $0.22 per diluted share).
10-K filed 2025-10-08Reads the signal panel above (momentum, volatility, drawdown, relative strength and beta) and ranks each against the whole research universe rather than judging it in isolation.
Three-month momentum is -6.5% and six-month momentum is -8.7% as of 2026-09-14, with the six-month momentum at the 18th percentile of the 559-stock research universe.
Moneyta signal set · 2026-09-14weakened in debateRelative strength versus SPY is -23.9% over six months and -21.0% over twelve months as of 2026-09-14, with the six-month relative-strength percentile at the 18th percentile of the 559-stock research universe.
Moneyta signal set · 2026-09-14weakened in debateReads which funds hold the name and at what weight, plus insider Form 4 filings, to show the exposure you may already carry through index funds.
Institutional 13F-reported holdings total $304.71B as of the 13F period ended 2026-03-31.
13F holdings · 4210 filers · as of 2026-03-31BlackRock, Inc. was reported with $34.82B in holdings and a quarter-over-quarter reported value change of 15.0% in the 13F for the period ended 2026-03-31.
13F holdings · 4210 filers · as of 2026-03-31Reads recent headlines that are genuinely about this company, ignoring rating chatter and market-wide stories. Findings argue in the debate but never move the sentiment score.
Multiple outlets report Costco raised the price of its Kirkland-brand motor oil and imposed purchase limits per customer.
News · cnbc.com · 2026-09-14The same motor-oil price/limit story appears across several distinct outlets, including CNBC, Yahoo Finance, and The Independent.
News · finance.yahoo.com · 2026-09-14Reads parsed Forms 3/4/5: who bought or sold, at what size, and whether a 10b5-1 plan was involved. Flags clustered open-market officer buying; treats plan sales as routine and never counts a fund or 10%-holder as an officer.
Kenneth D. Denman, a Director, sold 885 shares for a reported value of "$847k" on 2026-06-23; the filing does not show a trading plan flag for this transaction.
Form 4 · DENMAN KENNETH D (Director) · $847k sold · 2026-06-23Caton Frates, Executive Vice President, sold 700 shares for a reported value of "$695k" on 2026-04-01; the filing does not show a trading plan flag for this transaction.
Form 4 · Frates Caton (Executive Vice President) · $695k sold · 2026-04-01Reads the implied-expectations math built from the company's own filings (the growth rate today's price would justify, and the multiples beside it) and argues whether the market's bar looks high or low for this business. Never turns the math into a target.
The model-implied free cash flow (FCF) growth rate that today’s price would justify is 26.5% per year (0.265).
Valuation inputs · SEC XBRL + stored EOD closePrice-to-FFO/FCF measures from the filings show price-to-free-cash-flow (price/FCF) is 39.57 and FCF per share is $23.2253 (trailing twelve months).
Valuation inputs · SEC XBRL + stored EOD closeDebate and risk review
A bull and a bear contest the claims and the chair rules on each; the risk review stress-tests what survived.
A bull and a bear argue the analysts' claims across two rounds, then a chair rules on each one. Only what survives feeds the score. The argument is shown, not hidden, so you can judge the reasoning yourself.
The provided evidence jointly supports a favorable read on the company’s operating and liquidity profile: sequential quarterly operating income, margins, net income and diluted EPS all rose across the three most recent quarters, while cash, short-term investments and stockholders’ equity increased and long-term debt remained essentially stable. Institutional ownership and ETF inclusion are substantial and recently growing, and third-party analyst coverage in the consensus is predominantly bullish, which together strengthen the case that market participants recognize the company’s fundamental strength. Valuation- and market-momentum negatives point to price-level and sentiment effects rather than deterioration in core business metrics; free cash flow and operating cash flow remain large on a TTM basis, supporting balance-sheet flexibility. Evidence strength: fundamentals and filings items are strong (multiple sequential quarter and year signals from filings), liquidity and ownership signals are strong-to-moderate, while market-momentum, valuation multiples and isolated news/insider-sale items are weaker or price-driven rather than company-operating weaknesses.
Chair's verdict, claim by claim
Fragility · computed, not argued
balanced0.36
37 surviving claims rest on 15 distinct sources; the heaviest analyst carries 19% of them, and 97% of what the desk raised survived the debate.
The evidence set is moderately robust: 37 surviving claims draw on 15 distinct sources, so there is some source diversity, and no single analyst dominates the narrative (the largest contributor covers under one-fifth of claims). However, the very high survival rate through debate (97%) plus many claims anchored in company filings and internal computed signals means the read is strong for describing reported pasts but relatively fragile for novel or external inferences—give greater weight to factual, filing‑backed statements and less to interpretation that depends on limited external corroboration.
Peer context · computed, not argued
12-1 momentum ranks 3rd of 3 in Discount Stores (as of 2026-09-14).
6-month relative strength ranks 2nd of 3 in Discount Stores (as of 2026-09-14).
90-day volatility ranks 3rd of 3 in Discount Stores (as of 2026-09-14).
dividend yield ranks 3rd of 3 in Discount Stores (as of 2026-09-14).
Disconfirming evidence · base rates · falsifiers
Context
Outside consensus, and where this name already sits in your own portfolio.
Third-party consensus shown for context. It never enters Moneyta sentiment. When the two diverge, the debate above is where the why lives.
What this was built from
Every figure on this page traces to one of these. The desk reads only what is listed here (no outside knowledge, no browsing), and each card shows who read it and what it contributed to the score.
9 filings· 3 cited
SEC XBRL filings
Quarterly figures as filed with the SEC, read straight from EDGAR's structured data, not retyped or estimated.
Read by Mercer+0.7 to the score
4 documents· 3 cited
SEC filing documents
The filings themselves, including the year-over-year comparison of Item 1A risk factors.
Read by Oakes+0.3 to the score
1 signal set
Moneyta signal set
Computed from our own end-of-day price history and ranked against the whole research universe. No AI involved.
Read by Nash+0.0 to the score
2 holdings records· 1 cited
Fund holdings
Which funds hold this name and at what weight, plus insider Form 4 filings.
Read by Ellis+1.3 to the score
8 headlines· 2 cited
News coverage
Recent headlines about this company, rating chatter excluded and nothing published after the report date.
Read by Yatesnothing survived
2 filings
Insider filings
Parsed Forms 3/4/5 from EDGAR: named insiders, share counts, prices, and 10b5-1 plan state, with stated and inferred flags kept apart.
Read by Talbot−0.8 to the score
1 computation
Valuation inputs
TTM cash-flow figures from the company's own XBRL filings, priced with the stored closing price. Implied growth and multiples only; no fair-value dollar figure reaches the desk, by design.
Read by Archercontext only
1 record· 0 cited
Company profile
Sector, industry and company details.
1 record· 0 cited
Analyst consensus
Third-party consensus, shown for context only; it never enters Moneyta sentiment.
Read means we pulled and handed it to an analyst; cited means a claim on this page points at it. Reading twelve quarters to state one trend is normal; the gap is shown rather than hidden.
Written by AI, checked against sources
The analysts, the bull–bear debate and the editor's note are AI agents reading only the evidence listed on this page. They can misread a filing or a headline, which is why every claim cites a source you can open and check yourself. The sentiment score is arithmetic over the claims that survived the debate, not a language model's opinion.
Educational analysis of published data. Moneyta does not give investment advice or make recommendations. Past patterns do not indicate future results.
The full terminal on COST Gold
Who holds it, who's buying, what the Street thinks: live behind the lock, updated as filings land.
Institutional holders
Net institutional flow, Q/Q
Largest holder position
Insider buys, 90 days
Clustered insider value
Street target range
The real figures are for members. Educational analysis, not advice.
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Educational analysis of published data. Moneyta does not give investment advice or make recommendations.