CVNA
CARVANA CO.Evidence as of 2026-10-07The desk's Snapshot
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Overview · CARVANA CO.
Carvana Co., together with its subsidiaries, operates an e-commerce platform for buying and selling used cars in the United States. Its platform allows customers to research and identify a vehicle; inspect it using company's 360-degree vehicle imaging technology; obtain financing and warranty coverage; purchase the vehicle; and schedule delivery or pick-up from their desktop or mobile devices. The company was founded…
Management team
- Ms. Christina Keiser · Executive Vice President of StrategyFind on LinkedIn
- Mr. Michael McKeever · Head of Capital Markets, Investor Relations and TreasuryFind on LinkedIn
- Mr. Paul Breaux · VP, General Counsel & SecretaryFind on LinkedIn
- Mr. Michael Louis Levin C.F.A. · Vice President of Investor RelationsFind on LinkedIn
Start free to see the full management team.
Links open LinkedIn searches, not verified profiles. Team data from our market-data vendor's company profile.
Moneyta sentiment
Where the published evidence leans after the desk debated it, not a rating or a recommendation.
−0.6 on a −2 to +2 scale.
What builds the score
Solid bars are analyst rubric scores; faded bars are computed directly from data. Claims dropped in debate count for nothing; weakened claims count at half weight.
Editor's note
Written after the debate settled. The rest of the page is the evidence behind it.
Revenue rose across the provided quarters from $ 4,840,000,000 in fiscal Q2 2025 (fiscal quarter ended 2025-06-30) to $ 5,647,000,000 in fiscal Q3 2025 (fiscal quarter ended 2025-09-30), then to $ 6,432,000,000 in fiscal Q1 2026 (fiscal quarter ended 2026-03-31) and $ 7,376,000,000 in fiscal Q2 2026 (fiscal quarter ended 2026-06-30). Quarterly operating income increased from $ 511,000,000 (period ended 2025-06-30) to $ 581,000,000 in fiscal Q1 2026 and $ 680,000,000 in fiscal Q2 2026, with comparable net income rising from $ 183,000,000 to $ 250,000,000 and $ 310,000,000 over the same sequence. Balance-sheet evidence shows cash and cash equivalents of $ 2,630,000,000 as of 2026-06-30 and stockholders' equity of $ 4,028,000,000 as of 2026-06-30, while weighted-average diluted shares outstanding increased to 739,960,000 in fiscal Q2 2026.
Market signals are mixed: price sits below both moving averages (about -7.2% vs the 50‑day SMA and -10.9% vs the 200‑day SMA), three‑month momentum is -3.7% and six‑month momentum is -0.3%, realized volatility is elevated (30‑day annualized +43.0%, 90‑day annualized +59.6%), and three‑year maximum drawdown is -43.0% with a current drawdown of -33.2%. Valuation metrics in the packet show price‑to‑earnings (TTM) of 12.21, price‑to‑free‑cash‑flow (TTM) of 192.15, free cash flow (TTM) of $ 246,000,000, and an implied free‑cash‑flow growth rate of 0.7625.
How this note was made
every stage ran before the note was writtenAnalyst desk
Mercer, Oakes, Nash, Ellis, Yates, Talbot and Archer. The desk: named AI agents, not people. Each reads one slice of the evidence and nothing else (no outside knowledge, no browsing), so every finding traces to a source you can open.
Reads the XBRL figures companies file with the SEC (revenue, margins, income, debt and share count, quarter by quarter) and reports which way the trend is running.
Revenue rose across the provided quarters from $4,840,000,000 in fiscal Q2 2025 (2025-04-01 to 2025-06-30, 3mo) to $5,647,000,000 in fiscal Q3 2025 (2025-07-01 to 2025-09-30, 3mo), to $6,432,000,000 in fiscal Q1 2026 (2026-01-01 to 2026-03-31, 3mo), to $7,376,000,000 in fiscal Q2 2026 (2026-04-01 to 2026-06-30, 3mo).
XBRL companyfacts · 0001690820-25-000312Gross profit and implied gross margin over the same quarters increased: gross profit was $1,064,000,000 in fiscal Q2 2025 (gross margin ~22.0% using revenue $4,840,000,000), $1,148,000,000 in fiscal Q3 2025 (gross margin ~20.3% using revenue $5,647,000,000), $1,271,100,000 in fiscal Q1 2026 (gross margin ~19.8% using revenue $6,432,000,000), and $1,384,000,000 in fiscal Q2 2026 (gross margin ~18.8% using revenue $7,376,000,000).
XBRL companyfacts · 0001690820-25-000312weakened in debateReads the filings themselves, above all the year-over-year diff of Item 1A risk factors: which risks a company added, dropped or quietly reworded since its last annual report.
Which filings the desk reads
The desk reads the annual 10-K in full: its risk factors, and how they changed since last year. Quarterly 10-Qs and event filings (8-Ks, insider Form 4s) are listed for context but not read line by line: the 10-K is where the material risk disclosures live. A brand-new company, or one we have only just begun tracking, may have no annual report on file yet; its risk analysis fills in once that lands.
As of December 31, 2025, the company reported $3.9 billion aggregate principal amount of Senior Secured Notes and $107 million aggregate principal amount of Senior Unsecured Notes on a consolidated basis.
Item 1A risk-factor diff · 0001690820-26-000009 vs 0001690820-25-000074The 10-K filed February 18, 2026 discusses added and expanded risk-factor language about the companys development and deployment of artificial intelligence, stating the companys use of AI may not perform as expected and could expose it to technological, operational, legal, and reputational risks, and that laws, standards, and guidance relating to AI are developing rapidly across jurisdictions.
Item 1A risk-factor diff · 0001690820-26-000009 vs 0001690820-25-000074Reads the signal panel above (momentum, volatility, drawdown, relative strength and beta) and ranks each against the whole research universe rather than judging it in isolation.
As of 2026-10-06, three-month momentum is -3.7% and six-month momentum is -0.3%, with the six-month momentum at the 37th percentile vs the research universe.
Moneyta signal set · 2026-10-06weakened in debatePrice is below both moving averages: -7.2% vs the 50-day simple moving average and -10.9% vs the 200-day simple moving average, and the 'golden_cross' flag is false.
Moneyta signal set · 2026-10-06Reads which funds hold the name and at what weight, plus insider Form 4 filings, to show the exposure you may already carry through index funds.
13F holdings reported are as of the period ended 30 June 2026 and carry a 45-day reporting lag.
13F holdings · 837 filers · as of 2026-06-30The top institutional holders reported as of 30 June 2026 include Capital Research Global Investors at $4.17B, BlackRock, Inc. at $3.19B, VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC at $3.00B, FMR LLC at $2.21B, and VANGUARD PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT LLC at $2.12B, with total 13F-reported institutional value $50.95B and 837 holders.
13F holdings · 837 filers · as of 2026-06-30Reads recent headlines that are genuinely about this company, ignoring rating chatter and market-wide stories. Findings argue in the debate but never move the sentiment score.
Coverage includes a company announcement about bringing Inspection and Reconditioning Center capabilities to ADESA Orlando, published 6 October 2026.
News · finance.yahoo.com · 2026-10-06There is reporting of an insider sale: a VP sold 5,000 shares on 1 October 2026, noted in a 5 October 2026 article.
News · thelincolnianonline.com · 2026-10-05Reads parsed Forms 3/4/5: who bought or sold, at what size, and whether a 10b5-1 plan was involved. Flags clustered open-market officer buying; treats plan sales as routine and never counts a fund or 10%-holder as an officer.
JENKINS MARK W. (Chief Financial Officer) reported sales on 2026-09-01 of $2.7M (37,406 shares) and $1.9M (26,344 shares) in filings that state the trades were made pursuant to a 10b5-1 plan.
Form 4 · JENKINS MARK W. (Chief Financial Officer) · $506k code F · 2026-09-01HUSTON BENJAMIN E. (Chief Operating Officer) reported sales on 2026-09-01 of $2.1M (29,474 shares) and $1.5M (20,526 shares) in a filing that states those trades were made pursuant to a 10b5-1 plan.
Form 4 · HUSTON BENJAMIN E. (Chief Operating Officer) · $506k code F · 2026-09-01Reads the implied-expectations math built from the company's own filings (the growth rate today's price would justify, and the multiples beside it) and argues whether the market's bar looks high or low for this business. Never turns the math into a target.
The implied free-cash-flow growth rate today's price would justify is 76.25% (implied_growth = 0.7625).
Valuation inputs · SEC XBRL + stored EOD closePrice-to-free-cash-flow (TTM) is 192.15.
Valuation inputs · SEC XBRL + stored EOD closeDebate and risk review
A bull and a bear contest the claims and the chair rules on each; the risk review stress-tests what survived.
A bull and a bear argue the analysts' claims across two rounds, then a chair rules on each one. Only what survives feeds the score. The argument is shown, not hidden, so you can judge the reasoning yourself.
The provided filings and fundamentals collectively show accelerating top-line and profitability metrics alongside a strengthening balance sheet: sequential quarterly revenue and operating / net income figures rise across the periods shown, cash and stockholders’ equity increased while long‑term debt ticked slightly lower, and TTM operating income is sizable. Institutional ownership data lists large, diversified holders and meaningful 13F-reported exposure, which, combined with multiple officer acquisition filings, adds corroborating signals of institutional and insider commitment. Several bear points rely on valuation ratios that flag demanding free‑cash‑flow expectations and market technicals (momentum, moving averages, elevated realized vol), but these are weaker as company-specific counters because operating and earnings metrics (PE ~12.2; strong operating income TTM) and recent insider acquisitions provide direct fundamental support. SEC subpoena and securitization-risk disclosures are material items in the filings and warrant monitoring, but the disclosure language is limited in scope in the claims set; similarly, multiple insider sales are documented but many are labeled as 10b5-1 plan transactions while separate filings show officer acquisitions. Overall, the strongest evidence here is the internally consistent record of rising revenue, rising operating and net income, improving liquidity and equity, and concentrated institutional holdings; weaker opposing points are primarily valuation stretch and market technicals or procedural disclosures with limited resolution in the presented claims.
Chair's verdict, claim by claim
Fragility · computed, not argued
balanced0.30
35 surviving claims rest on 18 distinct sources; the heaviest analyst carries 17% of them, and 97% of what the desk raised survived the debate.
The surviving set is moderately robust: claims cite a fairly broad base of 18 distinct sources and most items survived internal debate, which supports using this read as a substantive summary of the record. However, one analyst disproportionately influences the set (carrying 17% of surviving claims) and the very high survival rate (97%) suggests the desk’s conclusions may reflect limited critical challenge — treat interpretations as informative but not deeply stress-tested.
Disconfirming evidence · base rates · falsifiers
Context
Outside consensus, and where this name already sits in your own portfolio.
Third-party consensus shown for context. It never enters Moneyta sentiment. When the two diverge, the debate above is where the why lives.
What this was built from
Every figure on this page traces to one of these. The desk reads only what is listed here (no outside knowledge, no browsing), and each card shows who read it and what it contributed to the score.
10 filings· 2 cited
SEC XBRL filings
Quarterly figures as filed with the SEC, read straight from EDGAR's structured data, not retyped or estimated.
Read by Mercer+0.4 to the score
13 documents· 1 cited
SEC filing documents
The filings themselves, including the year-over-year comparison of Item 1A risk factors.
Read by Oakes−1.0 to the score
1 signal set
Moneyta signal set
Computed from our own end-of-day price history and ranked against the whole research universe. No AI involved.
Read by Nash−0.8 to the score
3 holdings records· 1 cited
Fund holdings
Which funds hold this name and at what weight, plus insider Form 4 filings.
Read by Ellis+0.5 to the score
8 headlines· 2 cited
News coverage
Recent headlines about this company, rating chatter excluded and nothing published after the report date.
Read by Yatesnothing survived
10 filings· 2 cited
Insider filings
Parsed Forms 3/4/5 from EDGAR: named insiders, share counts, prices, and 10b5-1 plan state, with stated and inferred flags kept apart.
Read by Talbot−0.8 to the score
1 computation
Valuation inputs
TTM cash-flow figures from the company's own XBRL filings, priced with the stored closing price. Implied growth and multiples only; no fair-value dollar figure reaches the desk, by design.
Read by Archercontext only
1 record· 0 cited
Company profile
Sector, industry and company details.
1 record· 0 cited
Analyst consensus
Third-party consensus, shown for context only; it never enters Moneyta sentiment.
Read means we pulled and handed it to an analyst; cited means a claim on this page points at it. Reading twelve quarters to state one trend is normal; the gap is shown rather than hidden.
Written by AI, checked against sources
The analysts, the bull–bear debate and the editor's note are AI agents reading only the evidence listed on this page. They can misread a filing or a headline, which is why every claim cites a source you can open and check yourself. The sentiment score is arithmetic over the claims that survived the debate, not a language model's opinion.
Educational analysis of published data. Moneyta does not give investment advice or make recommendations. Past patterns do not indicate future results.
The full terminal on CVNA Gold
Who holds it, who's buying, what the Street thinks: live behind the lock, updated as filings land.
Institutional holders
Net institutional flow, Q/Q
Largest holder position
Insider buys, 90 days
Clustered insider value
Street target range
The real figures are for members. Educational analysis, not advice.
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Educational analysis of published data. Moneyta does not give investment advice or make recommendations.