DECK
DECKERS OUTDOOR CORPEvidence as of 2026-09-26The desk's Snapshot
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Overview · DECKERS OUTDOOR CORP
Deckers Outdoor Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, designs, markets, and distributes footwear, apparel, and accessories for casual lifestyle use and high-performance activities in the United States and internationally. The company offers premium footwear, apparel, and accessories under the UGG brand name; footwear and apparel for ultra-runners and athletes under the Hoka brand; and sandals, shoes, and boots…
Management team
- Mr. Marco Ellerker · President of Global MarketplaceFind on LinkedIn
- Ms. Anne Spangenberg · President of Fashion LifestyleFind on LinkedIn
- Mr. Thomas Garcia · Chief Administrative Officer & General CounselFind on LinkedIn
- Mr. Steven J. Fasching · Chief Financial OfficerFind on LinkedIn
Start free to see the full management team.
Links open LinkedIn searches, not verified profiles. Team data from our market-data vendor's company profile.
Moneyta sentiment
Where the published evidence leans after the desk debated it, not a rating or a recommendation.
+0.7 on a −2 to +2 scale.
What builds the score
Solid bars are analyst rubric scores; faded bars are computed directly from data. Claims dropped in debate count for nothing; weakened claims count at half weight.
Editor's note
Written after the debate settled. The rest of the page is the evidence behind it.
The desk rates the evidence balance as Constructive (+ 0.7 of a possible + 2; was + 0.7 before debate) with high confidence. Shares outstanding have declined from 149,635,000 as of 2025-06-30 to 136,414,227 as of 2026-07-09, and weighted‑average diluted shares fell quarter-to-quarter from 149,635,000 (Q1 2026, fiscal quarter ended 2025-07-10) to 147,652,000 (Q2 2026, fiscal quarter ended 2025-10-09) to 144,289,000 (Q3 2026, fiscal quarter ended 2026-01-13) to 138,559,000 (Q1 2027, fiscal quarter ended 2026-07-09).
Reported quarterly revenue shows strong seasonality with $ 964,538,000 (Q1 2026), $ 1,430,840,000 (Q2 2026), $ 1,957,549,000 (Q3 2026), and $ 1,019,531,000 (Q1 2027). Gross profit and implied margins followed: $ 537,906,000 (~ 55.8%) in Q1 2026, $ 803,822,000 (~ 56.2%) in Q2 2026, $ 1,171,360,000 (~ 59.9%) in Q3 2026, and $ 575,163,000 (~ 56.4%) in Q1 2027, while net income for those three‑month periods was $ 139,203,000, $ 268,152,000, $ 481,145,000, and $ 129,972,000 respectively.
How this note was made
every stage ran before the note was writtenAnalyst desk
Mercer, Oakes, Nash, Ellis, Yates, Talbot and Archer. The desk: named AI agents, not people. Each reads one slice of the evidence and nothing else (no outside knowledge, no browsing), so every finding traces to a source you can open.
Reads the XBRL figures companies file with the SEC (revenue, margins, income, debt and share count, quarter by quarter) and reports which way the trend is running.
Entity common shares outstanding declined from 149,635,000 as of 2025-06-30 to 136,414,227 as of 2026-07-09.
XBRL companyfacts · 0000910521-26-000022Weighted-average diluted shares outstanding fell quarter-to-quarter from 149,635,000 (weighted-average for Q1 2026, 2025-04-01 to 2025-06-30) to 147,652,000 (Q2 2026, 2025-07-01 to 2025-09-30) to 144,289,000 (Q3 2026, 2025-10-01 to 2025-12-31) to 138,559,000 (Q1 2027, 2026-04-01 to 2026-06-30).
XBRL companyfacts · 0000910521-26-000022Reads the filings themselves, above all the year-over-year diff of Item 1A risk factors: which risks a company added, dropped or quietly reworded since its last annual report.
Which filings the desk reads
The desk reads the annual 10-K in full: its risk factors, and how they changed since last year. Quarterly 10-Qs and event filings (8-Ks, insider Form 4s) are listed for context but not read line by line: the 10-K is where the material risk disclosures live. A brand-new company, or one we have only just begun tracking, may have no annual report on file yet; its risk analysis fills in once that lands.
The Form 10-K filed 22 May 2026 added explicit risk language calling out manufacturing capacity, raw material availability, logistics constraints, and third‑party logistics (3PL) operational failures as risks to timely and cost‑effective delivery of products, including language tying those risks to a portion of total net sales for fiscal year 2026.
Item 1A risk-factor diff · 0001628280-26-037664 vs 0000910521-25-000017The Form 10-K filed 22 May 2026 added specific language about risks from 3PL transitions, system cutovers, data migrations, and 3PL operational or financial difficulties that could make it "challenging" to meet expectations and standards for timely, quality, and costed services.
Item 1A risk-factor diff · 0001628280-26-037664 vs 0000910521-25-000017Reads the signal panel above (momentum, volatility, drawdown, relative strength and beta) and ranks each against the whole research universe rather than judging it in isolation.
No computed signal history for this symbol yet — signals need roughly 70 trading days of price history.
Reads which funds hold the name and at what weight, plus insider Form 4 filings, to show the exposure you may already carry through index funds.
Institutional reported holdings total $13.33B, with 869 institutional holders as of 2026-06-30; the report shows a quarter-over-quarter value change of 50.8% and a holder_count_delta_qoq of 625.
13F holdings · 869 filers · as of 2026-06-30Top reported institutional holders (as of 2026-06-30) include BlackRock, Inc. $1.34B, VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC $911.0M, STATE STREET CORP $627.6M, VANGUARD PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT LLC $589.9M, and FMR LLC $524.9M.
13F holdings · 869 filers · as of 2026-06-30Reads recent headlines that are genuinely about this company, ignoring rating chatter and market-wide stories. Findings argue in the debate but never move the sentiment score.
Kalkine Media ran a company-specific piece about Deckers' use of UGG retail activations, personalization and events for fall (published 24 Sep 2026).
News · kalkinemedia.com · 2026-09-24Simply Wall St reported Deckers launched an 'UGG Born To Feel' campaign with global experiential events and a celebrity-fronted marketing campaign (published 23 Sep 2026).
News · simplywall.st · 2026-09-23Reads parsed Forms 3/4/5: who bought or sold, at what size, and whether a 10b5-1 plan was involved. Flags clustered open-market officer buying; treats plan sales as routine and never counts a fund or 10%-holder as an officer.
Cindy L. Davis (Director) reported an acquisition of 535 shares on 2026-09-01 (Form 4, action code A).
Form 4 · Davis Cindy L (Director) · $0 code A · 2026-09-01Nelson Chan (Director) reported an acquisition of 535 shares on 2026-09-01 (Form 4, action code A).
Form 4 · Chan Nelson (Director) · $0 code A · 2026-09-01Reads the implied-expectations math built from the company's own filings (the growth rate today's price would justify, and the multiples beside it) and argues whether the market's bar looks high or low for this business. Never turns the math into a target.
The valuation calculation implies a free cash flow (FCF) growth rate of 31.54% that today's price would justify under the stated discount and terminal assumptions.
Valuation inputs · SEC XBRL + stored EOD closePrice / FCF (trailing twelve months) is 47.49.
Valuation inputs · SEC XBRL + stored EOD closeDebate and risk review
A bull and a bear contest the claims and the chair rules on each; the risk review stress-tests what survived.
A bull and a bear argue the analysts' claims across two rounds, then a chair rules on each one. Only what survives feeds the score. The argument is shown, not hidden, so you can judge the reasoning yourself.
The compiled evidence shows multiple, strong company-specific fundamentals that support a favorable read: materially lower share count and sequentially falling diluted shares (fundamentals-0, fundamentals-1) coincide with sharply higher share-repurchase cash outflows (fundamentals-5), which together provide a clear and well-sourced read on capital return and EPS-leverage dynamics. Reported quarterly gross profit and implied margins (fundamentals-3) and positive quarterly net income levels (fundamentals-4) are reported across filings and indicate consistent profitability on a seasonal revenue cadence (fundamentals-2). Institutional holding data and notable increases in reported institutional value and holder count (ownership-0, ownership-1) plus multiple director Form 4 acquisitions (insider-0 through insider-5) are contemporaneous signals from holders and insiders and are robustly sourced. Valuation metrics such as a modest trailing P/E of 11.21 and healthy cash balances alongside positive TTM FCF (valuation-2, valuation-3) further buttress the favorable reading when viewed alongside the operational items above.
Chair's verdict, claim by claim
Fragility · computed, not argued
diversified0.25
31 surviving claims rest on 19 distinct sources; the heaviest analyst carries 19% of them, and 100% of what the desk raised survived the debate.
The surviving evidence set is moderately concentrated: 31 claims draw on 19 distinct sources, with a single analyst responsible for a meaningful share of the inputs and the desk’s contributions wholly surviving the review. That pattern raises moderate fragility — the read is useful for factual summaries (filings, reported results, recent insider forms) but deserves caution where interpretation or weight is needed, because a relatively small set of sources and one dominant analyst increase the chance that overlooked or updated documents would change the picture.
Disconfirming evidence · base rates · falsifiers
Context
Outside consensus, and where this name already sits in your own portfolio.
Third-party consensus shown for context. It never enters Moneyta sentiment. When the two diverge, the debate above is where the why lives.
What this was built from
Every figure on this page traces to one of these. The desk reads only what is listed here (no outside knowledge, no browsing), and each card shows who read it and what it contributed to the score.
13 filings· 2 cited
SEC XBRL filings
Quarterly figures as filed with the SEC, read straight from EDGAR's structured data, not retyped or estimated.
Read by Mercer+1.2 to the score
12 documents· 2 cited
SEC filing documents
The filings themselves, including the year-over-year comparison of Item 1A risk factors.
Read by Oakes−1.0 to the score
3 holdings records· 1 cited
Fund holdings
Which funds hold this name and at what weight, plus insider Form 4 filings.
Read by Ellis+0.5 to the score
7 headlines· 2 cited
News coverage
Recent headlines about this company, rating chatter excluded and nothing published after the report date.
Read by Yatesnothing survived
9 filings· 2 cited
Insider filings
Parsed Forms 3/4/5 from EDGAR: named insiders, share counts, prices, and 10b5-1 plan state, with stated and inferred flags kept apart.
Read by Talbot+1.0 to the score
1 computation
Valuation inputs
TTM cash-flow figures from the company's own XBRL filings, priced with the stored closing price. Implied growth and multiples only; no fair-value dollar figure reaches the desk, by design.
Read by Archercontext only
1 record· 0 cited
Company profile
Sector, industry and company details.
1 record· 0 cited
Analyst consensus
Third-party consensus, shown for context only; it never enters Moneyta sentiment.
Read means we pulled and handed it to an analyst; cited means a claim on this page points at it. Reading twelve quarters to state one trend is normal; the gap is shown rather than hidden.
Written by AI, checked against sources
The analysts, the bull–bear debate and the editor's note are AI agents reading only the evidence listed on this page. They can misread a filing or a headline, which is why every claim cites a source you can open and check yourself. The sentiment score is arithmetic over the claims that survived the debate, not a language model's opinion.
Educational analysis of published data. Moneyta does not give investment advice or make recommendations. Past patterns do not indicate future results.
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Institutional holders
Net institutional flow, Q/Q
Largest holder position
Insider buys, 90 days
Clustered insider value
Street target range
The real figures are for members. Educational analysis, not advice.
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