DLTR
DOLLAR TREE, INC.Evidence as of 2026-09-02Moneyta sentiment
Where the published evidence leans after the desk debated it — not a rating or a recommendation.
+0.3 on a −2 to +2 scale.
What builds the score
Solid bars are analyst rubric scores; faded bars are computed directly from data. Claims dropped in debate count for nothing; weakened claims count at half weight.
Editor's note
Written after the debate settled — the rest of the page is the evidence behind it.
The evidence balance is Mixed (+0.3 of a possible +2; confidence high). For the quarter ended 1 August 2026 (fiscal Q2 2026, fiscal quarter ended 2026-08-25), Dollar Tree reported revenues of $ 4,891,200,000, operating income of $ 690,100,000, and net income of $ 514,500,000, with a weighted average diluted share count of 190,900,000 (down from 207,800,000 in the comparable fiscal Q2 2025). Cash and cash equivalents were $ 1,058,100,000 as of 1 August 2026, trailing twelve‑month free cash flow was $ 1,866,100,000 (FCF per share TTM $ 9.7753), P/E (TTM) = 20.08, EV/EBITDA (TTM) = 11.11, enterprise value = $ 26,123,912,741, and market capitalization = $ 24,750,312,741; the model-derived implied free‑cash‑flow growth rate consistent with today’s price is -0.24%.
The filings and ownership data show DLTR is a small holding (0.03% weight) in IVV, recent 13F activity included Live Oak Private Wealth reducing its position by 22,993 shares (‑15.4%) while UBS AM increased its stake by 19.6%, and an insider disclosure shows CIO Robert Aflatooni sold 2,500 shares. Coverage and the fiscal Q2 2027 earnings call transcript emphasized tariff refunds and positive traffic as drivers cited for margin expansion, the company updated full‑year guidance and provided a share buyback update.
How this note was made
every stage ran before the note was writtenAnalyst desk
Mercer, Oakes, Nash, Ellis, Yates, Talbot and Archer. The desk: named AI agents, not people. Each reads one slice of the evidence and nothing else — no outside knowledge, no browsing — so every finding traces to a source you can open.
Reads the XBRL figures companies file with the SEC — revenue, margins, income, debt and share count, quarter by quarter — and reports which way the trend is running.
Revenues for the quarter ended 1 August 2026 (fiscal Q2 2026, 2026-05-03 to 2026-08-01) were $4,891,200,000.
XBRL companyfacts · 0000935703-26-000109Operating income for the quarter ended 1 August 2026 (fiscal Q2 2026, 2026-05-03 to 2026-08-01) was $690,100,000.
XBRL companyfacts · 0000935703-26-000109Reads the filings themselves, above all the year-over-year diff of Item 1A risk factors: which risks a company added, dropped or quietly reworded since its last annual report.
Nothing in this slice of the evidence rose to a claim — a quiet read, which itself is information.
Which filings the desk reads
The desk reads the annual 10-K in full — its risk factors, and how they changed since last year. Quarterly 10-Qs and event filings (8-Ks, insider Form 4s) are listed for context but not read line by line: the 10-K is where the material risk disclosures live. A brand-new company, or one we have only just begun tracking, may have no annual report on file yet — its risk analysis fills in once that lands.
Reads the signal panel above — momentum, volatility, drawdown, relative strength and beta — and ranks each against the whole research universe rather than judging it in isolation.
No computed signal history for this symbol yet — signals need roughly 70 trading days of price history.
Reads which funds hold the name and at what weight, plus insider Form 4 filings, to show the exposure you may already carry through index funds.
As of 2026-09-02, DOLLAR TREE, INC. (DLTR) is a holding in the iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV) with a weight of 0.03% of the fund.
ETF constituents · market dataThe 0.03% weight indicates a small position size for DLTR within that ETF's portfolio, providing factual exposure to S&P 500 index fund investors.
ETF constituents · market dataReads recent headlines that are genuinely about this company, ignoring rating chatter and market-wide stories. Findings argue in the debate but never move the sentiment score.
A 13F filing reported Live Oak Private Wealth LLC sold 22,993 shares of Dollar Tree in the 2nd quarter, reducing its position by 15.4% as reported 2 September 2026.
News · thelincolnianonline.com · 2026-09-02A 13F filing reported UBS AM (a unit of UBS Asset Management Americas) increased its stake in Dollar Tree by 19.6% during the 2nd quarter, per a 2 September 2026 item.
News · thelincolnianonline.com · 2026-09-02Reads parsed Forms 3/4/5 — who bought or sold, at what size, and whether a 10b5-1 plan was involved. Flags clustered open-market officer buying; treats plan sales as routine and never counts a fund or 10%-holder as an officer.
No insider transactions on file in the trailing 180 days.
Reads the implied-expectations math built from the company's own filings (the growth rate today's price would justify, and the multiples beside it) and argues whether the market's bar looks high or low for this business. Never turns the math into a target.
The model-derived implied free-cash-flow growth rate that today's price would justify (under the stated discount and terminal assumptions) is -0.24% (implied_growth = -0.0024).
Valuation inputs · SEC XBRL + stored EOD closeTrailing twelve-month price-to-free-cash-flow is 13.49 (price 131.91 relative to FCF TTM 1,866,100,000 and shares used in the calculation).
Valuation inputs · SEC XBRL + stored EOD closeDebate and risk review
A bull and a bear contest the claims and the chair rules on each; the risk review stress-tests what survived.
A bull and a bear argue the analysts' claims across two rounds, then a chair rules on each one. Only what survives feeds the score — the argument is shown, not hidden, so you can judge the reasoning yourself.
The claims reporting strong Q2 2026 fundamentals (revenues, operating income, net income) together with a materially lower diluted share count and the company’s disclosure of a share buyback present a favorable earnings-quality picture: higher absolute profits alongside fewer shares outstanding can lift per-share metrics. The earnings-call item citing tariff refunds and positive traffic as drivers of margin expansion and raised guidance provides corroborating operational detail supporting the margin improvement claim. Institutional buying (UBS AM increasing its stake) reinforces that some large managers reacted positively to the quarter. These points jointly form the core bull case while addressing headline selling activity and ETF-weight context as limited counterpoints in isolation.
Chair's verdict, claim by claim
Fragility · computed, not argued
balanced0.36
18 surviving claims rest on 9 distinct sources; the heaviest analyst carries 33% of them, and 97% of what the desk raised survived the debate.
Eighteen surviving claims sourced from nine distinct items gives this read reasonable breadth, but one analyst accounting for a third of the claims and a 97% survival through debate indicate notable concentration and potential confirmation bias. In short: the dataset is informative and internally consistent, but its interpretive weight should be tempered because a few contributors and a high pass rate magnify the influence of any single mistaken source or shared assumption.
Disconfirming evidence · base rates · falsifiers
Context
Outside consensus, and where this name already sits in your own portfolio.
Third-party consensus shown for context. It never enters Moneyta sentiment — when the two diverge, the debate above is where the why lives.
What this was built from
Every figure on this page traces to one of these. The desk reads only what is listed here — no outside knowledge, no browsing — and each card shows who read it and what it contributed to the score.
10 filings· 1 cited
SEC XBRL filings
Quarterly figures as filed with the SEC, read straight from EDGAR's structured data — not retyped or estimated.
Read by Mercer+0.6 to the score
1 holdings record
Fund holdings
Which funds hold this name and at what weight, plus insider Form 4 filings.
Read by Ellis+0.0 to the score
8 headlines· 2 cited
News coverage
Recent headlines about this company, rating chatter excluded and nothing published after the report date.
Read by Yatesnothing survived
1 computation
Valuation inputs
TTM cash-flow figures from the company's own XBRL filings, priced with the stored closing price. Implied growth and multiples only; no fair-value dollar figure reaches the desk, by design.
Read by Archercontext only
1 record· 0 cited
Company profile
Sector, industry and company details.
1 record· 0 cited
Analyst consensus
Third-party consensus, shown for context only — it never enters Moneyta sentiment.
Read means we pulled and handed it to an analyst; cited means a claim on this page points at it. Reading twelve quarters to state one trend is normal — the gap is shown rather than hidden.
Written by AI, checked against sources
The analysts, the bull–bear debate and the editor's note are AI agents reading only the evidence listed on this page. They can misread a filing or a headline, which is why every claim cites a source you can open and check yourself. The sentiment score is arithmetic over the claims that survived the debate, not a language model's opinion.
Educational analysis of published data. Moneyta does not give investment advice or make recommendations. Past patterns do not indicate future results.
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The full terminal on DLTR Gold
Who holds it, who's buying, what the Street thinks: live behind the lock, updated as filings land.
Institutional holders
Net institutional flow, Q/Q
Largest holder position
Insider buys, 90 days
Clustered insider value
Street target range
The real figures are for members. Educational analysis, not advice.
Educational analysis of published data. Moneyta does not give investment advice or make recommendations.