DOW
DOW INC.Evidence as of 2026-10-16The desk's Snapshot
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Overview · DOW INC.
Dow Inc., through its subsidiaries, engages in the provision of various materials science solutions for packaging, infrastructure, mobility, and consumer applications in the United States, Canada, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, India, the Asia Pacific, and Latin America. It operates through Packaging & Specialty Plastics, Industrial Intermediates & Infrastructure, and Performance Materials & Coatings segments. The…
Management team
- Ms. Karen S. Carter · Chief Operating OfficerFind on LinkedIn
- Mr. John Maurice Sampson · Senior Vice President of Operations, Manufacturing & EngineeringFind on LinkedIn
- Ms. Amy E. Wilson J.D. · General Counsel & Corporate SecretaryFind on LinkedIn
- Dr. Attiganal Narayanaswam Sreeram · Senior VP & CTOFind on LinkedIn
Start free to see the full management team.
Links open LinkedIn searches, not verified profiles. Team data from our market-data vendor's company profile.
Moneyta sentiment
Where the published evidence leans after the desk debated it, not a rating or a recommendation.
−0.7 on a −2 to +2 scale.
What builds the score
Solid bars are analyst rubric scores; faded bars are computed directly from data. Claims dropped in debate count for nothing; weakened claims count at half weight.
Editor's note
Written after the debate settled. The rest of the page is the evidence behind it.
The surviving record paints a cautious picture (evidence balance: Cautious, -0.7; confidence high). Reported revenues moved from $10,431,000,000 in the quarter 2025-01-01 to 2025-03-31 (fiscal Q1 2026 reported on the 10-Q filed 24 April 2026) to $9,794,000,000 in the quarter 2026-01-01 to 2026-03-31 (fiscal Q1 2026 reported on the 10-Q filed 24 April 2026). Net income has swung between losses and a small profit across recent quarters — losses of $307,000,000, $835,000,000 and $533,000,000 in three of the reported quarters and a one-quarter profit of $62,000,000 — and diluted EPS mirrors that volatility (ranging from -$1.18 to $0.08 to -$0.74 across the same span).
Shares outstanding and weighted-average diluted shares have risen (shares from 703,831,931 to 720,741,438; diluted shares from 706,900,000 to 721,200,000). Cash and cash equivalents rose from $1,465,000,000 as of 2025-03-31 to $4,110,000,000 as of 2026-03-31. FY 2025 net sales were $40 billion, down 7% from $43 billion in FY 2024, and management disclosed a 50% dividend reduction to $0.35 per share beginning with the fiscal Q3 2025 dividend. The company has announced restructuring and cost programs including a Transform to Outperform initiative expected to target at least $2 billion of near-term Operating EBITDA improvement with one-time charges of $1.1–$1.5 billion and severance of about $600–$800 million. Market signals are mixed: a trailing twelve‑month dividend yield of 4.72% (93rd percentile), a three‑year maximum drawdown of -62.2% (currently -43.5% from the 3‑year high), negative six‑month momentum (-24.9%, 10th percentile) alongside positive twelve‑month momentum (+29.0%, 75th percentile), and a marked institutional reweighting in the latest 13F (aggregate holdings down 29.5% quarter‑over‑quarter).
How this note was made
every stage ran before the note was writtenAnalyst desk
Mercer, Oakes, Nash, Ellis, Yates, Talbot and Archer. The desk: named AI agents, not people. Each reads one slice of the evidence and nothing else (no outside knowledge, no browsing), so every finding traces to a source you can open.
Reads the XBRL figures companies file with the SEC (revenue, margins, income, debt and share count, quarter by quarter) and reports which way the trend is running.
Revenues declined from $10,431,000,000 in the quarter 2025-01-01 to 2025-03-31 (fiscal Q1 2026 reported on the 10-Q filed 24 April 2026) to $9,794,000,000 in the quarter 2026-01-01 to 2026-03-31 (fiscal Q1 2026 reported on the 10-Q filed 24 April 2026).
XBRL companyfacts · 0001751788-26-000134Net income (loss) has swung between losses and a small profit over the recent quarters: a loss of $307,000,000 in the quarter 2025-01-01 to 2025-03-31 (fiscal Q1 2026 reported on the 10-Q filed 24 April 2026), a loss of $835,000,000 in the quarter 2025-04-01 to 2025-06-30 (fiscal Q2 2025 reported on the 10-Q filed 25 July 2025), a profit of $62,000,000 in the quarter 2025-07-01 to 2025-09-30 (fiscal Q3 2025 reported on the 10-Q filed 24 October 2025), and a loss of $533,000,000 in the quarter 2026-01-01 to 2026-03-31 (fiscal Q1 2026 reported on the 10-Q filed 24 April 2026).
XBRL companyfacts · 0001751788-26-000134Reads the filings themselves, above all the year-over-year diff of Item 1A risk factors: which risks a company added, dropped or quietly reworded since its last annual report.
Which filings the desk reads
The desk reads the annual 10-K in full: its risk factors, and how they changed since last year. Quarterly 10-Qs and event filings (8-Ks, insider Form 4s) are listed for context but not read line by line: the 10-K is where the material risk disclosures live. A brand-new company, or one we have only just begun tracking, may have no annual report on file yet; its risk analysis fills in once that lands.
In the 10-K filed 3 February 2026, the Company reported net sales of $40 billion for the year ended December 31, 2025, down 7% from $43 billion in 2024, with local price decreasing 7% and decreases across all operating segments.
10-K filed 2026-02-03In the 10-K filed 3 February 2026, management states as THEIR characterization that "Industry overcapacity and newer entrants exporting at anti-competitive economics have negatively impacted the Companys results of operations and cash flows and are expected to continue to do so," and that the macroeconomic conditions experienced in 2025 "are expected to persist in the near term for the Company and the industry alike."
10-K filed 2026-02-03Reads the signal panel above (momentum, volatility, drawdown, relative strength and beta) and ranks each against the whole research universe rather than judging it in isolation.
Over the past three years, the security's maximum drawdown was -62.2% and it is currently -43.5% from its 3-year high.
Moneyta signal set · 2026-10-15Three-year drawdown rank is in the 20th percentile of the 882-stock research universe as of 2026-10-15.
Moneyta signal set · 2026-10-15Reads which funds hold the name and at what weight, plus insider Form 4 filings, to show the exposure you may already carry through index funds.
13F reporting shows aggregate institutional holdings valued at "$16.13B" as of 2026-06-30, with 1,215 holders, 255 exited positions, 0 new positions, a quarter-over-quarter value change of -29.5%, and a holder count delta of -117.
13F holdings · 1215 filers · as of 2026-06-30Top institutional holders reported include BlackRock, Inc. at "$1.69B" (value_qoq_pct -24.0), VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC at "$1.29B" (value_qoq_pct -33.1), and STATE STREET CORP at "$1.04B" (value_qoq_pct -29.2).
13F holdings · 1215 filers · as of 2026-06-30Reads recent headlines that are genuinely about this company, ignoring rating chatter and market-wide stories. Findings argue in the debate but never move the sentiment score.
Multiple outlets reported a company declaration of a $0.35 quarterly dividend, payable December 11, 2026, with an ex-dividend date of November 30, 2026.
News · seekingalpha.com · 2026-10-15The same dividend declaration was carried in additional syndicated or secondary outlets on the same date.
News · finance.yahoo.com · 2026-10-15Reads parsed Forms 3/4/5: who bought or sold, at what size, and whether a 10b5-1 plan was involved. Flags clustered open-market officer buying; treats plan sales as routine and never counts a fund or 10%-holder as an officer.
Karen S. Carter (Chief Executive Officer) reported an acquisition of 24,150 shares on 2026-07-01 (Form 4, action code 'A'); the filing lists the transaction value as "$0".
Form 4 · Carter Karen S (Chief Executive Officer) · $0 code A · 2026-07-01The filing for the 2026-07-01 acquisition does not show a checked or issuer-stated 10b5-1 trading plan flag in the provided evidence (trading_plan: null).
Form 4 · Carter Karen S (Chief Executive Officer) · $0 code A · 2026-07-01Reads the implied-expectations math built from the company's own filings (the growth rate today's price would justify, and the multiples beside it) and argues whether the market's bar looks high or low for this business. Never turns the math into a target.
The trailing twelve-month free cash flow (FCF) is negative $200,000,000.
Valuation inputs · SEC XBRL + stored EOD closeTrailing twelve-month diluted EPS is negative $-2.28.
Valuation inputs · SEC XBRL + stored EOD closeDebate and risk review
A bull and a bear contest the claims and the chair rules on each; the risk review stress-tests what survived.
A bull and a bear argue the analysts' claims across two rounds, then a chair rules on each one. Only what survives feeds the score. The argument is shown, not hidden, so you can judge the reasoning yourself.
Several claims in the record provide a constructive read on the company's financial position and investor interest despite operational headwinds. Cash and cash equivalents rose materially from $1.465B to $4.11B (fundamentals-5), while trailing twelve-month net cash from operations was positive $2.214B (valuation-3), indicating operating cash generation even as earnings and revenue were volatile. Management disclosed a Transform to Outperform program expected to deliver at least $2B in near-term Operating EBITDA improvement (filings-2), and the company concurrently declared a $0.35 quarterly dividend that has been widely reported (news-0 to news-2), signals that liquidity is being directed to stakeholders. Market and ownership signals — a strong 12-month momentum rank (market-3), inclusion in broad-market ETFs (ownership-2), and an insider purchase filing by the CEO (insider-0) — together suggest renewed investor attention and structural placement in passive portfolios.
Chair's verdict, claim by claim
Fragility · computed, not argued
balanced0.41
40 surviving claims rest on 13 distinct sources; the heaviest analyst carries 22% of them, and 98% of what the desk raised survived the debate.
The evidence base is moderately concentrated: 40 surviving factual claims draw on 13 distinct sources, so each source carries meaningful weight and single-source errors could shift the read. An individual analyst accounts for about a fifth of the contributions and the desk’s 98% survival rate in debate suggests strong internal consensus—but that high survival rate also raises the risk that shared assumptions or unnoticed errors persist across claims.
Disconfirming evidence · base rates · falsifiers
Context
Outside consensus, and where this name already sits in your own portfolio.
Third-party consensus shown for context. It never enters Moneyta sentiment. When the two diverge, the debate above is where the why lives.
What this was built from
Every figure on this page traces to one of these. The desk reads only what is listed here (no outside knowledge, no browsing), and each card shows who read it and what it contributed to the score.
12 filings· 2 cited
SEC XBRL filings
Quarterly figures as filed with the SEC, read straight from EDGAR's structured data, not retyped or estimated.
Read by Mercer−0.3 to the score
5 documents· 3 cited
SEC filing documents
The filings themselves, including the year-over-year comparison of Item 1A risk factors.
Read by Oakes−1.2 to the score
1 signal set
Moneyta signal set
Computed from our own end-of-day price history and ranked against the whole research universe. No AI involved.
Read by Nash−0.3 to the score
2 holdings records· 1 cited
Fund holdings
Which funds hold this name and at what weight, plus insider Form 4 filings.
Read by Ellis−0.8 to the score
8 headlines· 2 cited
News coverage
Recent headlines about this company, rating chatter excluded and nothing published after the report date.
Read by Yatesnothing survived
1 filing
Insider filings
Parsed Forms 3/4/5 from EDGAR: named insiders, share counts, prices, and 10b5-1 plan state, with stated and inferred flags kept apart.
Read by Talbot+0.3 to the score
1 computation
Valuation inputs
TTM cash-flow figures from the company's own XBRL filings, priced with the stored closing price. Implied growth and multiples only; no fair-value dollar figure reaches the desk, by design.
Read by Archercontext only
1 record· 0 cited
Company profile
Sector, industry and company details.
1 record· 0 cited
Analyst consensus
Third-party consensus, shown for context only; it never enters Moneyta sentiment.
Read means we pulled and handed it to an analyst; cited means a claim on this page points at it. Reading twelve quarters to state one trend is normal; the gap is shown rather than hidden.
Written by AI, checked against sources
The analysts, the bull–bear debate and the editor's note are AI agents reading only the evidence listed on this page. They can misread a filing or a headline, which is why every claim cites a source you can open and check yourself. The sentiment score is arithmetic over the claims that survived the debate, not a language model's opinion.
Educational analysis of published data. Moneyta does not give investment advice or make recommendations. Past patterns do not indicate future results.
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Institutional holders
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