EL
The Estée Lauder Companies Inc.Evidence as of 2026-09-02Moneyta sentiment
Where the published evidence leans after the desk debated it — not a rating or a recommendation.
+0.0 on a −2 to +2 scale.
What builds the score
Solid bars are analyst rubric scores; faded bars are computed directly from data. Claims dropped in debate count for nothing; weakened claims count at half weight.
Editor's note
Written after the debate settled — the rest of the page is the evidence behind it.
The evidence balance is Mixed with high confidence. Revenue rose from $ 3,481,000,000 in Q1 2026 (fiscal quarter ended 2025-09-30) to $ 4,229,000,000 in Q2 2026 (fiscal quarter ended 2025-12-31) and then declined to $ 3,712,000,000 in Q3 2026 (fiscal quarter ended 2026-03-31). Gross profit followed the same pattern: $ 2,554,000,000, $ 3,235,000,000 and $ 2,836,000,000 across Q1–Q3 2026 respectively, with operating income of $ 169,000,000, $ 401,000,000 and $ 249,000,000 and net income of $ 47,000,000, $ 162,000,000 and $ 89,000,000 over those quarters.
Trailing metrics show stress in cash generation: trailing twelve‑month free cash flow is negative $ 2,752,000,000 and free cash flow per share is negative $ 7.5315, while trailing operating income is $ 1,125,000,000 and trailing EBITDA is $ 1,927,000,000. Using a trailing diluted share count of 365,400,000 and a price of $ 101.15 implies a market cap near $ 36,960,000,000 and an EV/EBITDA around 18.6; the reported trailing P/E is 80.92.
How this note was made
every stage ran before the note was writtenAnalyst desk
Mercer, Oakes, Nash, Ellis, Yates, Talbot and Archer. The desk: named AI agents, not people. Each reads one slice of the evidence and nothing else — no outside knowledge, no browsing — so every finding traces to a source you can open.
Reads the XBRL figures companies file with the SEC — revenue, margins, income, debt and share count, quarter by quarter — and reports which way the trend is running.
Revenue was $3,481,000,000 in fiscal Q1 2026 (2025-07-01 to 2025-09-30, 3mo), rose to $4,229,000,000 in fiscal Q2 2026 (2025-10-01 to 2025-12-31, 3mo), then declined to $3,712,000,000 in fiscal Q3 2026 (2026-01-01 to 2026-03-31, 3mo).
XBRL companyfacts · 0001001250-25-000109Gross profit was $2,554,000,000 in fiscal Q1 2026 (2025-07-01 to 2025-09-30, 3mo), increased to $3,235,000,000 in fiscal Q2 2026 (2025-10-01 to 2025-12-31, 3mo), and was $2,836,000,000 in fiscal Q3 2026 (2026-01-01 to 2026-03-31, 3mo).
XBRL companyfacts · 0001001250-25-000109Reads the filings themselves, above all the year-over-year diff of Item 1A risk factors: which risks a company added, dropped or quietly reworded since its last annual report.
Nothing in this slice of the evidence rose to a claim — a quiet read, which itself is information.
Which filings the desk reads
The desk reads the annual 10-K in full — its risk factors, and how they changed since last year. Quarterly 10-Qs and event filings (8-Ks, insider Form 4s) are listed for context but not read line by line: the 10-K is where the material risk disclosures live. A brand-new company, or one we have only just begun tracking, may have no annual report on file yet — its risk analysis fills in once that lands.
Reads the signal panel above — momentum, volatility, drawdown, relative strength and beta — and ranks each against the whole research universe rather than judging it in isolation.
No computed signal history for this symbol yet — signals need roughly 70 trading days of price history.
Reads which funds hold the name and at what weight, plus insider Form 4 filings, to show the exposure you may already carry through index funds.
As of 2026-09-02T13:45:47.228469+00:00, The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. (EL) had a reported weight of 0.03% in the iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV).
ETF constituents · market dataThe record documents membership of EL in a major index-tracking ETF (IVV) at a 0.03% fund weight, representing factual passive-tracking exposure rather than an active trading event.
ETF constituents · market dataReads recent headlines that are genuinely about this company, ignoring rating chatter and market-wide stories. Findings argue in the debate but never move the sentiment score.
Multiple headlines describe the company's recent results as a turnaround, noting fiscal 2026 fourth-quarter and full-year numbers that management tied to a broader recovery narrative.
News · insidermonkey.com · 2026-08-27One headline reports that the company forecast fiscal 2027 adjusted earnings per share of $3.10 to $3.35 and that fiscal Q4 2026 net sales rose 6.3% to $3.63 billion, with strength cited in luxury fragrance and skincare brands.
News · finance.yahoo.com · 2026-08-28Reads parsed Forms 3/4/5 — who bought or sold, at what size, and whether a 10b5-1 plan was involved. Flags clustered open-market officer buying; treats plan sales as routine and never counts a fund or 10%-holder as an officer.
No insider transactions on file in the trailing 180 days.
Reads the implied-expectations math built from the company's own filings (the growth rate today's price would justify, and the multiples beside it) and argues whether the market's bar looks high or low for this business. Never turns the math into a target.
Free cash flow for the trailing twelve months is negative $2,752,000,000 and free cash flow per share is negative $7.5315.
Valuation inputs · SEC XBRL + stored EOD closeNet cash provided by (used in) operating activities for the trailing twelve months is negative $2,068,000,000.
Valuation inputs · SEC XBRL + stored EOD closeDebate and risk review
A bull and a bear contest the claims and the chair rules on each; the risk review stress-tests what survived.
A bull and a bear argue the analysts' claims across two rounds, then a chair rules on each one. Only what survives feeds the score — the argument is shown, not hidden, so you can judge the reasoning yourself.
The provided company-specific operating results show a clear multi-quarter improvement in top-line and profit metrics from Q1 to Q2 and retention of above-Q1 levels in Q3: revenue, gross profit, operating income, net income and diluted EPS all rose sharply into Q2 and remained elevated in Q3 versus Q1. Multiple independent news pieces frame this as a turnaround and cite management guidance for fiscal 2027 EPS and strength in luxury fragrance and skincare, which corroborates the company-reported operational recovery. These company-level improvements and consistent media coverage constitute direct, strong evidence of a recent favorable performance shift, even though trailing cash-flow and valuation metrics flagged in the data raise important counterpoints. Taken together, the fundamentals and news items are strong evidence of operational momentum, while the negative trailing free cash flow and high trailing P/E are strong evidence that valuation and cash conversion remain issues that merit attention.
Chair's verdict, claim by claim
Fragility · computed, not argued
balanced0.39
22 surviving claims rest on 9 distinct sources; the heaviest analyst carries 32% of them, and 100% of what the desk raised survived the debate.
The read rests on a modest set of distinct sources (nine) but a relatively large number of surviving claims, so many claims reuse the same documents. One analyst/account carries about a third of the weight and the desk’s 100% survival rate suggests limited internal challenge — together these raise fragility: the narrative can shift if a few sources or that lead analyst are contradicted or amended.
Disconfirming evidence · base rates · falsifiers
Context
Outside consensus, and where this name already sits in your own portfolio.
Third-party consensus shown for context. It never enters Moneyta sentiment — when the two diverge, the debate above is where the why lives.
What this was built from
Every figure on this page traces to one of these. The desk reads only what is listed here — no outside knowledge, no browsing — and each card shows who read it and what it contributed to the score.
16 filings· 1 cited
SEC XBRL filings
Quarterly figures as filed with the SEC, read straight from EDGAR's structured data — not retyped or estimated.
Read by Mercer+0.0 to the score
1 holdings record
Fund holdings
Which funds hold this name and at what weight, plus insider Form 4 filings.
Read by Ellis+0.0 to the score
8 headlines· 2 cited
News coverage
Recent headlines about this company, rating chatter excluded and nothing published after the report date.
Read by Yatesnothing survived
1 computation
Valuation inputs
TTM cash-flow figures from the company's own XBRL filings, priced with the stored closing price. Implied growth and multiples only; no fair-value dollar figure reaches the desk, by design.
Read by Archercontext only
1 record· 0 cited
Company profile
Sector, industry and company details.
1 record· 0 cited
Analyst consensus
Third-party consensus, shown for context only — it never enters Moneyta sentiment.
Read means we pulled and handed it to an analyst; cited means a claim on this page points at it. Reading twelve quarters to state one trend is normal — the gap is shown rather than hidden.
Written by AI, checked against sources
The analysts, the bull–bear debate and the editor's note are AI agents reading only the evidence listed on this page. They can misread a filing or a headline, which is why every claim cites a source you can open and check yourself. The sentiment score is arithmetic over the claims that survived the debate, not a language model's opinion.
Educational analysis of published data. Moneyta does not give investment advice or make recommendations. Past patterns do not indicate future results.
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The full terminal on EL Gold
Who holds it, who's buying, what the Street thinks: live behind the lock, updated as filings land.
Institutional holders
Net institutional flow, Q/Q
Largest holder position
Insider buys, 90 days
Clustered insider value
Street target range
The real figures are for members. Educational analysis, not advice.
Educational analysis of published data. Moneyta does not give investment advice or make recommendations.