ERIE
ERIE INDEMNITY COEvidence as of 2026-10-15The desk's Snapshot
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Overview · ERIE INDEMNITY CO
Erie Indemnity Company operates as a managing attorney-in-fact for the subscribers at the Erie Insurance Exchange in the United States. The company provides sales, underwriting, policy issuance, and renewal services for the policyholders on behalf of the Erie Insurance Exchange. It also offers sales related services, including agent compensation, and sales and advertising support services; and underwriting services c…
Management team
- Mr. Marc Cipriani C.I.C. · Senior Vice President of UnderwritingFind on LinkedIn
- Mr. Jeffrey William Brinling C.P.C.U. · Senior Vice President of Corporate ServicesFind on LinkedIn
- Mr. Douglas Edward Smith C.P.C.U., FCAS, MAAA · Executive Vice President of Sales & ProductsFind on LinkedIn
- Mr. Brian William Bolash Esq. · Executive VP, Corporate Secretary & General CounselFind on LinkedIn
Start free to see the full management team.
Links open LinkedIn searches, not verified profiles. Team data from our market-data vendor's company profile.
Moneyta sentiment
Where the published evidence leans after the desk debated it, not a rating or a recommendation.
−0.2 on a −2 to +2 scale.
What builds the score
Solid bars are analyst rubric scores; faded bars are computed directly from data. Claims dropped in debate count for nothing; weakened claims count at half weight.
Editor's note
Written after the debate settled. The rest of the page is the evidence behind it.
What the evidence shows
The surviving evidence presents a mixed picture (evidence balance: Mixed, -0.2 of a possible +2; confidence: high). In fiscal quarter ended 2026-06-30 (Q2 2026) revenue was $ 1,089,796,000 with operating income $ 204,123,000 and net income $ 180,294,000 (operating margin ≈ 18.7%, net margin ≈ 16.6%); in fiscal quarter ended 2026-03-31 (Q1 2026) revenue was $ 1,011,911,000 with operating income $ 166,787,000 and net income $ 150,474,000 (operating margin ≈ 16.5%, net margin ≈ 14.9%). Stockholders’ equity has risen across the twelve-month series shown from $ 1,987,258,000 (FY 2024) to $ 2,467,106,000 (as of 2026-06-30), and total assets increased from $ 2,968,228,000 (2025-03-31) to $ 3,557,016,000 (2026-06-30). Market metrics show large historical downside (3-year max drawdown -60.9%, 12th percentile of 882) and weak 12-month momentum (-24.4%, 13th percentile), alongside elevated short-term volatility (30‑day annualized +31.4%, 90‑day +44.4%) and a trailing twelve‑month dividend yield of 2.54% (75th percentile).
What the debate changed
The desk’s debate left nearly all claims intact — 98% of what was raised survived and nothing was dropped or materially weakened, so the read did not shift. The surviving filings-based risks that were highlighted — including the Exchange-dependency of management fee revenue, a downgraded A.M. Best descriptor (from A+ to A), investment concentration and reinvestment timing (≈ 85% fixed maturities, ≈ 30% of those maturing over three years), and amplified litigation/regulatory risk language — remain the working basis for the risk view. Insider Form 4 activity and several recent filings remain present but partially parsed (some marked pending/skipped), which the debate flagged as an incomplete element rather than something that altered the core conclusions.
How this note was made
every stage ran before the note was writtenAnalyst desk
Mercer, Oakes, Nash, Ellis, Yates, Talbot and Archer. The desk: named AI agents, not people. Each reads one slice of the evidence and nothing else (no outside knowledge, no browsing), so every finding traces to a source you can open.
Reads the XBRL figures companies file with the SEC (revenue, margins, income, debt and share count, quarter by quarter) and reports which way the trend is running.
In fiscal Q2 2026 (2026-04-01 to 2026-06-30, 3mo) revenue was $1,089,796,000, operating income was $204,123,000 and net income was $180,294,000, implying an operating margin of about 18.7% and a net margin of about 16.6% for that quarter.
XBRL companyfacts · 0001628280-26-051079In fiscal Q1 2026 (2026-01-01 to 2026-03-31, 3mo) revenue was $1,011,911,000, operating income was $166,787,000 and net income was $150,474,000, implying an operating margin of about 16.5% and a net margin of about 14.9% for that quarter.
XBRL companyfacts · 0001628280-26-026866Reads the filings themselves, above all the year-over-year diff of Item 1A risk factors: which risks a company added, dropped or quietly reworded since its last annual report.
Which filings the desk reads
The desk reads the annual 10-K in full: its risk factors, and how they changed since last year. Quarterly 10-Qs and event filings (8-Ks, insider Form 4s) are listed for context but not read line by line: the 10-K is where the material risk disclosures live. A brand-new company, or one we have only just begun tracking, may have no annual report on file yet; its risk analysis fills in once that lands.
In the Form 10-K filed 2026-02-23, management states the company is dependent upon its relationship with the Erie Insurance Exchange and that management fee revenue is based on direct and affiliated assumed premiums written by the Exchange and a management fee rate not to exceed 25%; the management fee rate was set at 25% for 2025 and 2024 and the Board set the 2026 management fee rate at 25%.
10-K filed 2026-02-23The risk-factor diff between the 2026 filing and the prior filing shows the company added an explicit risk that 'Unfavorable changes in macroeconomic conditions ... may lead the Exchange's customers to modify coverage, not renew policies, or even cancel policies, which could adversely affect the premium revenue of the Exchange, and consequently our management fee revenue.'
10-K filed 2026-02-23Reads the signal panel above (momentum, volatility, drawdown, relative strength and beta) and ranks each against the whole research universe rather than judging it in isolation.
Max drawdown over the past 3 years is -60.9% and the 3-year drawdown rank is the 12th percentile of 882, indicating this stock is near the bottom of the universe on that metric as of 2026-10-14.
Moneyta signal set · 2026-10-1412-month momentum (momentum_12_1) is -24.4% and its rank is the 13th percentile of 882 as of 2026-10-14, showing weak longer-term price performance within the research universe.
Moneyta signal set · 2026-10-14weakened in debateReads which funds hold the name and at what weight, plus insider Form 4 filings, to show the exposure you may already carry through index funds.
PNC Financial Services Group, Inc. is reported as holding "$1.16B" of ERIE in the 13F data as of the period 2026-06-30.
13F holdings · 442 filers · as of 2026-06-30Total reported institutional holdings value is "$5.00B", reported for the period 2026-06-30, with holder_count 442 and an overall value_qoq_pct of -0.5 for that quarter.
13F holdings · 442 filers · as of 2026-06-30Reads recent headlines that are genuinely about this company, ignoring rating chatter and market-wide stories. Findings argue in the debate but never move the sentiment score.
Erie Indemnity will host a pre-recorded audio webcast presenting its financial results for the third quarter 2026 on Friday, October 30, at 10 a.m. Eastern Time.
News · finance.yahoo.com · 2026-10-12A headline notes that market expectations referenced by the outlet indicate Erie Indemnitys third-quarter 2026 EPS is expected to decline by a single digit.
News · finance.yahoo.com · 2026-10-12Reads parsed Forms 3/4/5: who bought or sold, at what size, and whether a 10b5-1 plan was involved. Flags clustered open-market officer buying; treats plan sales as routine and never counts a fund or 10%-holder as an officer.
Cook Cody (Executive Vice President) reported an acquisition valued at "$3k" for "11.77" shares on 2026-07-31 (filing shows trading_plan: null).
Form 4 · Cook Cody (Executive Vice President) · $3k code J · 2026-07-31Shine Sarah (Executive Vice President) reported an acquisition valued at "$3k" for "11.05" shares on 2026-07-31 (filing shows trading_plan: null).
Form 4 · Shine Sarah (Executive Vice President) · $3k code J · 2026-07-31Reads the implied-expectations math built from the company's own filings (the growth rate today's price would justify, and the multiples beside it) and argues whether the market's bar looks high or low for this business. Never turns the math into a target.
The filings don't carry what the model needs.
Debate and risk review
A bull and a bear contest the claims and the chair rules on each; the risk review stress-tests what survived.
A bull and a bear argue the analysts' claims across two rounds, then a chair rules on each one. Only what survives feeds the score. The argument is shown, not hidden, so you can judge the reasoning yourself.
The company’s most recent quarterly results show solid profitability margins (fundamentals-0, fundamentals-1) alongside a steadily rising equity base and expanding balance sheet (fundamentals-3, fundamentals-4), which together indicate stronger reported earnings and capital accumulation across the last year. Institutional presence and ETF inclusion (ownership-0, ownership-1, ownership-2) plus small insider purchases (insider-0 through insider-5) provide evidence of continued investor participation, and the trailing dividend yield ranks relatively high in the universe (market-3), which can be relevant to income-focused assessments. The firm-specific dependence on the Erie Insurance Exchange and a maintained 25% management fee rate (filings-0) help explain the revenue linkage to premiums while the filing that flags macro sensitivity (filings-1) clarifies the exposure rather than introducing new negative operating performance facts. Financial advisors often note that deep historical drawdowns and short-term momentum/volatility metrics (market-0, market-1, market-2) can reflect market sentiment rather than underlying cash-flow dynamics; in this case the reported operating profitability and rising equity provide countervailing company-level context. Taken together, the set of fundamentals, ownership signals, dividend profile and stable fee arrangement jointly support a favorable interpretation of the firm’s recent reported financial position when viewed as an educational snapshot of company health.
Chair's verdict, claim by claim
Fragility · computed, not argued
diversified0.23
33 surviving claims rest on 22 distinct sources; the heaviest analyst carries 21% of them, and 98% of what the desk raised survived the debate.
The read rests on a moderate breadth of sources (22) for 33 surviving claims, so it is not narrowly sourced but still shows some concentration. One analyst contributing about one-fifth of claims plus a very high debate survival rate means the set has been resilient to internal challenge, but that high survival can also reflect conservative retention rules—material errors in a few primary filings would still shift conclusions disproportionately.
Peer context · computed, not argued
12-1 momentum ranks 2nd of 3 in Insurance Brokers (as of 2026-10-14).
6-month relative strength ranks 3rd of 3 in Insurance Brokers (as of 2026-10-14).
90-day volatility ranks 1st of 3 in Insurance Brokers (as of 2026-10-14).
dividend yield ranks 1st of 3 in Insurance Brokers (as of 2026-10-14).
Disconfirming evidence · base rates · falsifiers
Context
Outside consensus, and where this name already sits in your own portfolio.
Third-party consensus shown for context. It never enters Moneyta sentiment. When the two diverge, the debate above is where the why lives.
What this was built from
Every figure on this page traces to one of these. The desk reads only what is listed here (no outside knowledge, no browsing), and each card shows who read it and what it contributed to the score.
14 filings· 3 cited
SEC XBRL filings
Quarterly figures as filed with the SEC, read straight from EDGAR's structured data, not retyped or estimated.
Read by Mercer+0.8 to the score
10 documents· 3 cited
SEC filing documents
The filings themselves, including the year-over-year comparison of Item 1A risk factors.
Read by Oakes+0.0 to the score
1 signal set
Moneyta signal set
Computed from our own end-of-day price history and ranked against the whole research universe. No AI involved.
Read by Nash−0.6 to the score
3 holdings records· 1 cited
Fund holdings
Which funds hold this name and at what weight, plus insider Form 4 filings.
Read by Ellis+0.8 to the score
8 headlines· 2 cited
News coverage
Recent headlines about this company, rating chatter excluded and nothing published after the report date.
Read by Yatesnothing survived
15 filings· 2 cited
Insider filings
Parsed Forms 3/4/5 from EDGAR: named insiders, share counts, prices, and 10b5-1 plan state, with stated and inferred flags kept apart.
Read by Talbot+0.0 to the score
1 record· 0 cited
Company profile
Sector, industry and company details.
1 record· 0 cited
Analyst consensus
Third-party consensus, shown for context only; it never enters Moneyta sentiment.
Read means we pulled and handed it to an analyst; cited means a claim on this page points at it. Reading twelve quarters to state one trend is normal; the gap is shown rather than hidden.
Written by AI, checked against sources
The analysts, the bull–bear debate and the editor's note are AI agents reading only the evidence listed on this page. They can misread a filing or a headline, which is why every claim cites a source you can open and check yourself. The sentiment score is arithmetic over the claims that survived the debate, not a language model's opinion.
Educational analysis of published data. Moneyta does not give investment advice or make recommendations. Past patterns do not indicate future results.
The full terminal on ERIE Gold
Who holds it, who's buying, what the Street thinks: live behind the lock, updated as filings land.
Institutional holders
Net institutional flow, Q/Q
Largest holder position
Insider buys, 90 days
Clustered insider value
Street target range
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