ERIE
ERIE INDEMNITY COEvidence as of 2026-09-02Overview · ERIE INDEMNITY CO
Erie Indemnity Company operates as a managing attorney-in-fact for the subscribers at the Erie Insurance Exchange in the United States. The company provides sales, underwriting, policy issuance, and renewal services for the policyholders on behalf of the Erie Insurance Exchange. It also offers sales related services, including agent compensation, and sales and advertising support services; and underwriting services c…
Management team
- Mr. Marc Cipriani C.I.C. · Senior Vice President of UnderwritingFind on LinkedIn
- Mr. Jeffrey William Brinling C.P.C.U. · Senior Vice President of Corporate ServicesFind on LinkedIn
- Mr. Douglas Edward Smith C.P.C.U., FCAS, MAAA · Executive Vice President of Sales & ProductsFind on LinkedIn
- Mr. Brian William Bolash Esq. · Executive VP, Corporate Secretary & General CounselFind on LinkedIn
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Links open LinkedIn searches, not verified profiles. Team data from our market-data vendor's company profile.
Moneyta sentiment
Where the published evidence leans after the desk debated it — not a rating or a recommendation.
+0.2 on a −2 to +2 scale.
What builds the score
Solid bars are analyst rubric scores; faded bars are computed directly from data. Claims dropped in debate count for nothing; weakened claims count at half weight.
Editor's note
Written after the debate settled — the rest of the page is the evidence behind it.
The surviving claims establish a mixed picture with modest positive tilt: reported revenue rose from $ 880,701,000 in fiscal Q1 2024 (fiscal quarter ended 2024-03-31) to $ 1,089,796,000 in fiscal Q2 2026 (fiscal quarter ended 2026-06-30), while operating income increased from $ 138,812,000 to $ 204,123,000 and net income from $ 124,552,000 to $ 180,294,000 over the same pair of points. Point-in-time balance-sheet items show total assets growing from $ 2,558,794,000 as of 2024-03-31 to $ 3,557,016,000 as of 2026-06-30 and liabilities rising from $ 829,614,000 to $ 1,089,910,000, while stockholders’ equity moved higher from $ 1,662,835,000 as of 2023-12-31 to $ 2,467,106,000 as of 2026-06-30.
Market signals are mixed: short-term momentum is positive at +24.1% (three-month), but six-month momentum is -4.8% (26th percentile) and the 12-1 metric is -32.1% (9th percentile). Volatility and drawdown metrics are elevated — 30-day vol annualized +42.5%, 90-day +46.7%, three-year maximum drawdown -60.9% — while market sensitivity is negative (beta -0.42, correlation -0.14), and dividend yield is 2.25% with three-year dividend growth of 7.1%.
How this note was made
every stage ran before the note was writtenAnalyst desk
Mercer, Oakes, Nash, Ellis, Yates, Talbot and Archer. The desk: named AI agents, not people. Each reads one slice of the evidence and nothing else — no outside knowledge, no browsing — so every finding traces to a source you can open.
Reads the XBRL figures companies file with the SEC — revenue, margins, income, debt and share count, quarter by quarter — and reports which way the trend is running.
Reported revenue increased from 880,701,000 in fiscal Q1 2024 (2024-01-01 to 2024-03-31, 3mo) to 1,089,796,000 in fiscal Q2 2026 (2026-04-01 to 2026-06-30, 3mo).
XBRL companyfacts · 0001628280-26-051079Operating income rose from 138,812,000 in fiscal Q1 2024 (2024-01-01 to 2024-03-31, 3mo) to 204,123,000 in fiscal Q2 2026 (2026-04-01 to 2026-06-30, 3mo).
XBRL companyfacts · 0001628280-26-051079Reads the filings themselves, above all the year-over-year diff of Item 1A risk factors: which risks a company added, dropped or quietly reworded since its last annual report.
Nothing in this slice of the evidence rose to a claim — a quiet read, which itself is information.
Which filings the desk reads
The desk reads the annual 10-K in full — its risk factors, and how they changed since last year. Quarterly 10-Qs and event filings (8-Ks, insider Form 4s) are listed for context but not read line by line: the 10-K is where the material risk disclosures live. A brand-new company, or one we have only just begun tracking, may have no annual report on file yet — its risk analysis fills in once that lands.
Reads the signal panel above — momentum, volatility, drawdown, relative strength and beta — and ranks each against the whole research universe rather than judging it in isolation.
Three-month momentum is +24.1% as of 2026-09-01.
Moneyta signal set · 2026-09-01Six-month momentum is -4.8% and ranks in the 26th percentile of the 547-stock research universe as of 2026-09-01.
Moneyta signal set · 2026-09-01Reads which funds hold the name and at what weight, plus insider Form 4 filings, to show the exposure you may already carry through index funds.
The 13F-reported institutional holdings value was $39,810 as of the reporting period ended 2025-03-31, with Advisors Asset Management, Inc. listed as the top holder at $39,810.
13F holdings · 1 filers · as of 2025-03-31The 13F data shows a quarter-over-quarter reported value change of -88.8% for the reporting period ended 2025-03-31.
13F holdings · 1 filers · as of 2025-03-31Reads recent headlines that are genuinely about this company, ignoring rating chatter and market-wide stories. Findings argue in the debate but never move the sentiment score.
Two separate headlines report that Erie Indemnity executives (Cody Cook and Sarah Shine) acquired shares via 401(k) plan transactions, both published 1 September 2026.
News · kalkinemedia.com · 2026-09-01A price-action focused piece characterizes Erie Indemnity's recent movements as material for institutional trading models, emphasizing trading behavior rather than fundamental narrative.
News · news.stocktradersdaily.com · 2026-08-31Reads parsed Forms 3/4/5 — who bought or sold, at what size, and whether a 10b5-1 plan was involved. Flags clustered open-market officer buying; treats plan sales as routine and never counts a fund or 10%-holder as an officer.
No insider transactions on file in the trailing 180 days.
Reads the implied-expectations math built from the company's own filings (the growth rate today's price would justify, and the multiples beside it) and argues whether the market's bar looks high or low for this business. Never turns the math into a target.
The filings don't carry what the model needs.
Debate and risk review
A bull and a bear contest the claims and the chair rules on each; the risk review stress-tests what survived.
A bull and a bear argue the analysts' claims across two rounds, then a chair rules on each one. Only what survives feeds the score — the argument is shown, not hidden, so you can judge the reasoning yourself.
SEC-filed fundamentals (revenue, operating income, net income, equity and asset growth) present a consistent, well-documented improvement across the reported periods and form the backbone of a favorable read; these items are strong evidence because they come from company filings. Market negatives (multi‑period momentum, volatility, and three‑year drawdown) are real signals but are offset in the near term by a strong three‑month momentum reading and price sitting above short- and long-term moving averages — this suggests recent price action is at least partially aligned with the improving fundamentals (market signals: mixed strength). Institutional 13F holdings and the quarter-over-quarter decline look weak on paper, but 13F data carry reporting lags and show very small reported dollar amounts, limiting their evidentiary weight; ETF inclusion and recent insider 401(k) buy headlines provide additional, if smaller-scale, supportive context. Taken together, the highest‑strength evidence is the SEC financial filings showing operating and profitability growth; medium‑strength supporting context comes from short-term positive price momentum, ETF inclusion, dividend metrics and insider transactions; the weakest evidence is the aged or lumpy institutional 13F data and the long-lookback drawdown which reflect past volatility rather than current fundamentals.
Chair's verdict, claim by claim
Fragility · computed, not argued
balanced0.39
23 surviving claims rest on 10 distinct sources; the heaviest analyst carries 35% of them, and 100% of what the desk raised survived the debate.
The evidence set is moderately concentrated: 23 surviving claims draw on only 10 sources and one analyst authored 35% of the claims, so a small number of inputs carry outsized influence. The 100% survival rate from the desk debate suggests limited internal challenge — useful for completeness but raising the possibility of unchallenged assumptions or group-confirmation effects, so treat the read as informative but not fully stress-tested.
Peer context · computed, not argued
12-1 momentum ranks 3rd of 3 in Insurance Brokers (as of 2026-09-01).
90-day volatility ranks 1st of 3 in Insurance Brokers (as of 2026-09-01).
dividend yield ranks 1st of 3 in Insurance Brokers (as of 2026-09-01).
Disconfirming evidence · base rates · falsifiers
Context
Outside consensus, and where this name already sits in your own portfolio.
Third-party consensus shown for context. It never enters Moneyta sentiment — when the two diverge, the debate above is where the why lives.
What this was built from
Every figure on this page traces to one of these. The desk reads only what is listed here — no outside knowledge, no browsing — and each card shows who read it and what it contributed to the score.
21 filings· 1 cited
SEC XBRL filings
Quarterly figures as filed with the SEC, read straight from EDGAR's structured data — not retyped or estimated.
Read by Mercer+1.8 to the score
1 signal set
Moneyta signal set
Computed from our own end-of-day price history and ranked against the whole research universe. No AI involved.
Read by Nash−0.8 to the score
2 holdings records· 1 cited
Fund holdings
Which funds hold this name and at what weight, plus insider Form 4 filings.
Read by Ellis−0.4 to the score
8 headlines· 2 cited
News coverage
Recent headlines about this company, rating chatter excluded and nothing published after the report date.
Read by Yatesnothing survived
1 record· 0 cited
Company profile
Sector, industry and company details.
1 record· 0 cited
Analyst consensus
Third-party consensus, shown for context only — it never enters Moneyta sentiment.
Read means we pulled and handed it to an analyst; cited means a claim on this page points at it. Reading twelve quarters to state one trend is normal — the gap is shown rather than hidden.
Written by AI, checked against sources
The analysts, the bull–bear debate and the editor's note are AI agents reading only the evidence listed on this page. They can misread a filing or a headline, which is why every claim cites a source you can open and check yourself. The sentiment score is arithmetic over the claims that survived the debate, not a language model's opinion.
Educational analysis of published data. Moneyta does not give investment advice or make recommendations. Past patterns do not indicate future results.
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The full terminal on ERIE Gold
Who holds it, who's buying, what the Street thinks: live behind the lock, updated as filings land.
Institutional holders
Net institutional flow, Q/Q
Largest holder position
Insider buys, 90 days
Clustered insider value
Street target range
The real figures are for members. Educational analysis, not advice.
Educational analysis of published data. Moneyta does not give investment advice or make recommendations.