EXE
Chesapeake Energy Corp - NewEvidence as of 2026-09-02Moneyta sentiment
Where the published evidence leans after the desk debated it — not a rating or a recommendation.
+0.6 on a −2 to +2 scale.
What builds the score
Solid bars are analyst rubric scores; faded bars are computed directly from data. Claims dropped in debate count for nothing; weakened claims count at half weight.
Editor's note
Written after the debate settled — the rest of the page is the evidence behind it.
What the evidence shows
The evidence balance is constructive (+0.6 of a possible +2; was +0.6 before debate) with high confidence. Revenues rose to $ 4,397,000,000 in Q1 2026 (fiscal quarter ended 2026-04-24) from $ 2,966,000,000 in Q3 2025 (fiscal quarter ended 2025-10-23), and operating income increased to $ 1,531,000,000 (operating margin ~ 35.3%) from $ 725,000,000 (~ 24.4%) over the same pair of reported periods. Net income moved to $ 1,159,000,000 in Q1 2026 from $ 547,000,000 in Q3 2025 and from a net loss of $ 249,000,000 in Q1 2025 (fiscal quarter ended 2025-04-24), while cash rose to $ 2,222,000,000 as of 2026-03-31 and long-term debt edged down to $ 5,008,000,000. Valuation and capital-markets context: trailing twelve-month free cash flow is $ 2,751,000,000 (price / FCF ttm = 8.69), EV/EBITDA ttm = 4.29, P/E ttm = 9.88 with implied free-cash-flow growth at -9.96% under the model assumptions, and the ETF IVV is recorded holding the security at 0.03% weight.
What the debate changed
The desk’s surviving claims were left intact; nothing was dropped or weakened during the debate. The exchange narrowed attention to the same set of point-in-time filings and media coverage, so the read did not materially shift from the initial constructive view. The risk review clarified concentration of source exposure — one analyst supplies 35% of the surviving claims — but that did not remove or alter the primary financial figures.
How this note was made
every stage ran before the note was writtenAnalyst desk
Mercer, Oakes, Nash, Ellis, Yates, Talbot and Archer. The desk: named AI agents, not people. Each reads one slice of the evidence and nothing else — no outside knowledge, no browsing — so every finding traces to a source you can open.
Reads the XBRL figures companies file with the SEC — revenue, margins, income, debt and share count, quarter by quarter — and reports which way the trend is running.
Revenues increased to $4,397,000,000 in fiscal Q1 2026 (2026-01-01 to 2026-03-31, 3mo) from $2,966,000,000 in fiscal Q3 2025 (2025-07-01 to 2025-09-30, 3mo).
XBRL companyfacts · 0000895126-26-000028Operating income rose to $1,531,000,000 in fiscal Q1 2026 (2026-01-01 to 2026-03-31, 3mo) from $725,000,000 in fiscal Q3 2025 (2025-07-01 to 2025-09-30, 3mo); operating margin (operating income / revenues) for fiscal Q1 2026 is ~35.3% (1,531,000,000 / 4,397,000,000) versus ~24.4% for fiscal Q3 2025 (725,000,000 / 2,966,000,000).
XBRL companyfacts · 0000895126-26-000028Reads the filings themselves, above all the year-over-year diff of Item 1A risk factors: which risks a company added, dropped or quietly reworded since its last annual report.
Nothing in this slice of the evidence rose to a claim — a quiet read, which itself is information.
Which filings the desk reads
The desk reads the annual 10-K in full — its risk factors, and how they changed since last year. Quarterly 10-Qs and event filings (8-Ks, insider Form 4s) are listed for context but not read line by line: the 10-K is where the material risk disclosures live. A brand-new company, or one we have only just begun tracking, may have no annual report on file yet — its risk analysis fills in once that lands.
Reads the signal panel above — momentum, volatility, drawdown, relative strength and beta — and ranks each against the whole research universe rather than judging it in isolation.
No computed signal history for this symbol yet — signals need roughly 70 trading days of price history.
Reads which funds hold the name and at what weight, plus insider Form 4 filings, to show the exposure you may already carry through index funds.
As of 2026-09-02T13:45:47.228469+00:00, the ETF IVV held the security at a weight of 0.03% of the fund.
ETF constituents · market dataThe provided evidence shows one recorded ETF membership entry (IVV) for this security with the timestamp 2026-09-02T13:45:47.228469+00:00.
ETF constituents · market dataReads recent headlines that are genuinely about this company, ignoring rating chatter and market-wide stories. Findings argue in the debate but never move the sentiment score.
Coverage highlights recent operating improvement, citing a 19.4% compounded annual sales growth rate over five years and stronger EBITDA margins.
News · simplywall.st · 2026-09-02Several pieces are framed as positive investor-oriented writeups (for example, a '3 Reasons We're Fans' article published 1 September 2026).
News · finance.yahoo.com · 2026-09-01Reads parsed Forms 3/4/5 — who bought or sold, at what size, and whether a 10b5-1 plan was involved. Flags clustered open-market officer buying; treats plan sales as routine and never counts a fund or 10%-holder as an officer.
No SEC identity on file for this symbol — insider filings cannot be looked up.
Reads the implied-expectations math built from the company's own filings (the growth rate today's price would justify, and the multiples beside it) and argues whether the market's bar looks high or low for this business. Never turns the math into a target.
The model-backed implied free-cash-flow growth rate that today's price would justify (under the stated discount and terminal assumptions) is -9.96% (implied_growth = -0.0996).
Valuation inputs · SEC XBRL + stored EOD closeTrailing twelve-month free cash flow is $2,751,000,000 and price-to-FCF (price / FCF ttm) is 8.69.
Valuation inputs · SEC XBRL + stored EOD closeDebate and risk review
A bull and a bear contest the claims and the chair rules on each; the risk review stress-tests what survived.
A bull and a bear argue the analysts' claims across two rounds, then a chair rules on each one. Only what survives feeds the score — the argument is shown, not hidden, so you can judge the reasoning yourself.
The provided filings and coverage form a coherent, evidence-based bull case: recent quarters show material top-line and margin expansion (revenues, operating income, and operating margin all materially higher quarter‑over‑quarter) accompanied by a sharp reversal to positive net income and a large build in cash balances, while long-term debt ticked down — these are strong, contemporaneous company-filed data points. Trailing valuation multiples and cash-flow metrics (low P/FCF, EV/EBITDA ~4.3, P/E ~9.9, and FCF ttm of $2.75B) are well-supported by the reported financials and strengthen the read that current price embeds modest expectations relative to cash generation. Independent coverage repeatedly highlights multi-year sales CAGR and improving EBITDA margins, and 13F-derived pieces document new allocations by several funds, adding corroborating market interest. The weakest counterpoints in the set are thin or transient: a single large institutional trim and a tiny passive ETF weight are one-off flow datapoints and do not negate the stronger, repeated operating and cash-flow signals in the filings and valuation metrics.
Chair's verdict, claim by claim
Fragility · computed, not argued
balanced0.33
20 surviving claims rest on 11 distinct sources; the heaviest analyst carries 35% of them, and 100% of what the desk raised survived the debate.
The read rests on a modest set of distinct sources with a single analyst contributing a large fraction of the claims and the desk’s points surviving internal challenge intact. That combination raises fragility: the narrative is coherent but sensitive to a few contributors or a single new filing; confirmatory primary filings support several claims while syndicated news and a concentrated analyst voice reduce independent corroboration.
Disconfirming evidence · base rates · falsifiers
Context
Outside consensus, and where this name already sits in your own portfolio.
Third-party consensus shown for context. It never enters Moneyta sentiment — when the two diverge, the debate above is where the why lives.
What this was built from
Every figure on this page traces to one of these. The desk reads only what is listed here — no outside knowledge, no browsing — and each card shows who read it and what it contributed to the score.
10 filings· 1 cited
SEC XBRL filings
Quarterly figures as filed with the SEC, read straight from EDGAR's structured data — not retyped or estimated.
Read by Mercer+0.7 to the score
1 holdings record
Fund holdings
Which funds hold this name and at what weight, plus insider Form 4 filings.
Read by Ellis+0.5 to the score
8 headlines· 2 cited
News coverage
Recent headlines about this company, rating chatter excluded and nothing published after the report date.
Read by Yatesnothing survived
1 computation
Valuation inputs
TTM cash-flow figures from the company's own XBRL filings, priced with the stored closing price. Implied growth and multiples only; no fair-value dollar figure reaches the desk, by design.
Read by Archercontext only
1 record· 0 cited
Company profile
Sector, industry and company details.
1 record· 0 cited
Analyst consensus
Third-party consensus, shown for context only — it never enters Moneyta sentiment.
Read means we pulled and handed it to an analyst; cited means a claim on this page points at it. Reading twelve quarters to state one trend is normal — the gap is shown rather than hidden.
Written by AI, checked against sources
The analysts, the bull–bear debate and the editor's note are AI agents reading only the evidence listed on this page. They can misread a filing or a headline, which is why every claim cites a source you can open and check yourself. The sentiment score is arithmetic over the claims that survived the debate, not a language model's opinion.
Educational analysis of published data. Moneyta does not give investment advice or make recommendations. Past patterns do not indicate future results.
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The real figures are for members. Educational analysis, not advice.
Educational analysis of published data. Moneyta does not give investment advice or make recommendations.