EXE
Chesapeake Energy Corp - NewEvidence as of 2026-09-25The desk's Snapshot
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No company profile on file for EXE yet.
Moneyta sentiment
Where the published evidence leans after the desk debated it, not a rating or a recommendation.
−0.1 on a −2 to +2 scale.
What builds the score
Solid bars are analyst rubric scores; faded bars are computed directly from data. Claims dropped in debate count for nothing; weakened claims count at half weight.
Editor's note
Written after the debate settled. The rest of the page is the evidence behind it.
The evidence balance is Mixed ( -0.1 of a possible +2; was -0.1 before debate) · confidence high. For the fiscal quarter ended 2026-04-24, revenues were $4,397,000,000 versus $2,196,000,000 in the comparable fiscal quarter ended 2025-04-24, and operating income moved from an operating loss of $(268,000,000) in the fiscal quarter ended 2025-04-24 to operating income of $1,531,000,000 in the fiscal quarter ended 2026-04-24. Net income for that quarter rose from $(249,000,000) to $1,159,000,000 and diluted EPS from $(1.06) to $4.81 year‑over‑year.
Balance-sheet and capital items reported in the same filings show cash and cash equivalents rising from $349,000,000 as of 2025-03-31 to $2,220,000,000 as of 2026-03-31, long‑term debt declining modestly from $5,243,000,000 to $5,008,000,000, and a repurchase outflow of $66,000,000 in the fiscal quarter ended 2026-04-24 versus $0 in the prior-year quarter. Market snapshots show a price of 88.62 per share, market cap of 21,200,460,598, trailing P/E of 8.82 and EV/EBITDA of 3.88, with trailing twelve‑month FCF of $2,751,000,000 and an implied FCF growth input in the model of about -12.38%.
How this note was made
every stage ran before the note was writtenAnalyst desk
Mercer, Oakes, Nash, Ellis, Yates, Talbot and Archer. The desk: named AI agents, not people. Each reads one slice of the evidence and nothing else (no outside knowledge, no browsing), so every finding traces to a source you can open.
Reads the XBRL figures companies file with the SEC (revenue, margins, income, debt and share count, quarter by quarter) and reports which way the trend is running.
Quarter revenues were $4,397,000,000 in fiscal Q1 2026 (2026-01-01 to 2026-03-31, 3mo) versus $2,196,000,000 in fiscal Q1 2025 (2025-01-01 to 2025-03-31, 3mo), representing a year-over-year increase for the comparable quarters.
XBRL companyfacts · 0000895126-26-000028Operating income moved from an operating loss of $(268,000,000) in fiscal Q1 2025 (2025-01-01 to 2025-03-31, 3mo) to operating income of $1,531,000,000 in fiscal Q1 2026 (2026-01-01 to 2026-03-31, 3mo), indicating margin expansion on a year‑over‑year basis for those quarters.
XBRL companyfacts · 0000895126-26-000028Reads the filings themselves, above all the year-over-year diff of Item 1A risk factors: which risks a company added, dropped or quietly reworded since its last annual report.
Which filings the desk reads
The desk reads the annual 10-K in full: its risk factors, and how they changed since last year. Quarterly 10-Qs and event filings (8-Ks, insider Form 4s) are listed for context but not read line by line: the 10-K is where the material risk disclosures live. A brand-new company, or one we have only just begun tracking, may have no annual report on file yet; its risk analysis fills in once that lands.
The 10-K filed 18 February 2026 adds a risk that certain financial institutions and other capital providers have restricted or eliminated investments in fossil fuel-related activities and that responding to stakeholder sustainability concerns "may require us to incur additional costs or otherwise impact our business."
10-K filed 2026-02-18weakened in debateThe 10-K filed 18 February 2026 discloses that the NG3 pipeline (a joint venture natural gas gathering pipeline and carbon capture project in which the company holds a 35% interest) was placed in service and began operations on October 1, 2025.
10-K filed 2026-02-18Reads the signal panel above (momentum, volatility, drawdown, relative strength and beta) and ranks each against the whole research universe rather than judging it in isolation.
No computed signal history for this symbol yet — signals need roughly 70 trading days of price history.
Reads which funds hold the name and at what weight, plus insider Form 4 filings, to show the exposure you may already carry through index funds.
Institutional holders reported aggregate holdings valued at $20.22B for the quarter ended 2026-06-30.
13F holdings · 856 filers · as of 2026-06-30The reported institutional holdings value rose 243.1% quarter-over-quarter in the 13F snapshot ending 2026-06-30.
13F holdings · 856 filers · as of 2026-06-30Reads recent headlines that are genuinely about this company, ignoring rating chatter and market-wide stories. Findings argue in the debate but never move the sentiment score.
Several outlets reported on Expand Energy's recent debt financing: a US$500 million offering of 5.659% senior unsecured callable notes due September 15, 2031, with proceeds for general corporate purposes, and coverage linked this financing to a reassignment of an executive vice president role.
News · finance.yahoo.com · 2026-09-17Multiple pieces note the company launched a 2031 senior notes offering described as intended for general corporate funding.
News · kalkinemedia.com · 2026-09-16Reads parsed Forms 3/4/5: who bought or sold, at what size, and whether a 10b5-1 plan was involved. Flags clustered open-market officer buying; treats plan sales as routine and never counts a fund or 10%-holder as an officer.
No insider transactions on file in the trailing 180 days.
Reads the implied-expectations math built from the company's own filings (the growth rate today's price would justify, and the multiples beside it) and argues whether the market's bar looks high or low for this business. Never turns the math into a target.
The dataset shows a market price of 88.62 per share and a market capitalization of 21,200,460,598 (price dated 2026-09-24, shares used per the file).
Valuation inputs · SEC XBRL + stored EOD closeTrailing twelve‑month valuation multiples in the filing are: price/FCF = 7.76, P/E (ttm) = 8.82, and EV/EBITDA (ttm) = 3.88.
Valuation inputs · SEC XBRL + stored EOD closeDebate and risk review
A bull and a bear contest the claims and the chair rules on each; the risk review stress-tests what survived.
A bull and a bear argue the analysts' claims across two rounds, then a chair rules on each one. Only what survives feeds the score. The argument is shown, not hidden, so you can judge the reasoning yourself.
Several company-filed fundamentals together present a favorable operational snapshot: quarter revenues, operating income, net income, EPS, and a large cash build alongside modest debt reduction (fundamentals-0 through fundamentals-4) all point to materially improved recent financial performance. Valuation multiples (valuation-1) and reported trailing FCF (valuation-0, valuation-4) show the stock is trading at relatively low multiples versus those profit and cashflow measures; this supports a constructive reading when paired with institutional inflows and a sharp increase in reported institutional holder value and count (ownership-0 through ownership-2). The NG3 pipeline joint-venture coming into service (filings-1) and recent analyst buy-side initiation coverage in the street consensus provide additional corroborating context. Evidence strength: the fundamentals and valuation items are high-strength (company-filed, numeric, recent), ownership signals are medium-strength (13F snapshots are timely but lag), and the NG3 operations note is medium-strength (filed disclosure of project in service).
Chair's verdict, claim by claim
Fragility · computed, not argued
balanced0.38
30 surviving claims rest on 12 distinct sources; the heaviest analyst carries 23% of them, and 97% of what the desk raised survived the debate.
The evidence base is moderately concentrated: 30 surviving factual claims draw on 12 distinct sources, with a single analyst responsible for nearly a quarter of the claims and almost all proposed claims (97%) surviving internal debate. That pattern means the read is informative but somewhat brittle — useful for summarizing the disclosed quarter and filings, yet it depends materially on a few contributors and would be sensitive to a small number of source updates or restatements.
Disconfirming evidence · base rates · falsifiers
Context
Outside consensus, and where this name already sits in your own portfolio.
Third-party consensus shown for context. It never enters Moneyta sentiment. When the two diverge, the debate above is where the why lives.
What this was built from
Every figure on this page traces to one of these. The desk reads only what is listed here (no outside knowledge, no browsing), and each card shows who read it and what it contributed to the score.
10 filings· 2 cited
SEC XBRL filings
Quarterly figures as filed with the SEC, read straight from EDGAR's structured data, not retyped or estimated.
Read by Mercer+1.7 to the score
4 documents· 3 cited
SEC filing documents
The filings themselves, including the year-over-year comparison of Item 1A risk factors.
Read by Oakes−0.6 to the score
2 holdings records· 1 cited
Fund holdings
Which funds hold this name and at what weight, plus insider Form 4 filings.
Read by Ellis+0.6 to the score
8 headlines· 2 cited
News coverage
Recent headlines about this company, rating chatter excluded and nothing published after the report date.
Read by Yatesnothing survived
1 computation
Valuation inputs
TTM cash-flow figures from the company's own XBRL filings, priced with the stored closing price. Implied growth and multiples only; no fair-value dollar figure reaches the desk, by design.
Read by Archercontext only
1 record· 0 cited
Company profile
Sector, industry and company details.
1 record· 0 cited
Analyst consensus
Third-party consensus, shown for context only; it never enters Moneyta sentiment.
Read means we pulled and handed it to an analyst; cited means a claim on this page points at it. Reading twelve quarters to state one trend is normal; the gap is shown rather than hidden.
Written by AI, checked against sources
The analysts, the bull–bear debate and the editor's note are AI agents reading only the evidence listed on this page. They can misread a filing or a headline, which is why every claim cites a source you can open and check yourself. The sentiment score is arithmetic over the claims that survived the debate, not a language model's opinion.
Educational analysis of published data. Moneyta does not give investment advice or make recommendations. Past patterns do not indicate future results.
The full terminal on EXE Gold
Who holds it, who's buying, what the Street thinks: live behind the lock, updated as filings land.
Institutional holders
Net institutional flow, Q/Q
Largest holder position
Insider buys, 90 days
Clustered insider value
Street target range
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