Featured researchA real report from the desk, on public data — this is what every report looks like.

FAST

FASTENAL COEvidence as of 2026-09-02

Overview · FASTENAL CO

Fastenal Company, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the wholesale distribution of industrial and construction supplies in the United States, Canada, Mexico, and internationally. It offers fasteners, and related industrial and construction supplies under the Fastenal name. The company's fastener products include threaded fasteners, bolts, nuts, screws, studs, and related washers, which are used in manufacture…

SectorIndustrials
IndustryIndustrial Distribution
Typeequity
ExchangeNASDAQ
Employees20,262
www.fastenal.com

Management team

Start your 7-day free trial to see the full management team.

Links open LinkedIn searches, not verified profiles. Team data from our market-data vendor's company profile.

Moneyta sentiment

Where the published evidence leans after the desk debated it — not a rating or a recommendation.

Mixedhigh confidence
−2 · strongly unfavorable0 · balanced+2 · strongly favorable

+0.1 on a −2 to +2 scale.

What builds the score

Fundamentals
+0.4
Filings and risk
+0.0
Market signals
+0.1
Ownership and flow
+0.6
Insider activity
−0.6

Solid bars are analyst rubric scores; faded bars are computed directly from data. Claims dropped in debate count for nothing; weakened claims count at half weight.

News tonecontext · not scored−0.2 observed
3 favorable0 neutral3 unfavorableacross 3 outlets

Editor's note

Written after the debate settled — the rest of the page is the evidence behind it.

GoodwinAI editor

The evidence balance is Mixed (+0.1 of a possible +2; confidence high). Revenue in fiscal Q2 2026 (fiscal quarter ended 2026-07-10) was $ 2,386,900,000, up from fiscal Q1 2026 (fiscal quarter ended 2026-04-10) revenue of $ 2,201,700,000, while net income rose from $ 339,800,000 in Q1 2026 to $ 382,800,000 in Q2 2026. Gross profit in Q2 2026 was $ 1,063,600,000 with operating income of $ 501,800,000, implying about a 44.6% gross margin and a 21.0% operating margin for the quarter.

Market signals are mixed: trend-state indicators are constructive on the supplied date (golden_cross true; price is about + 0.5% vs. the 50‑day and + 8.2% vs. the 200‑day), momentum measures show modest positive recent price change (momentum_3m + 9.0%, momentum_6m + 6.0%, momentum_12_1 + 6.0%), volatility is moderate at about 23% annualized, and the stock shows low market sensitivity (beta_spy 0.50, corr_spy 0.25). Valuation metrics show high multiples: P/FCF TTM about 53.05 and P/E TTM about 40.29, with implied free cash flow growth consistent with the current price at roughly 34.68% under the model assumptions. Institutional reported holdings totaled about $ 43.22B in the 2026-03-31 13F period, with BlackRock the largest listed holder at $ 4.86B.

How this note was made

every stage ran before the note was written
Analystsread the evidence
Debatebull ⇄ bear ×2
Chairrules on every claim
Riskstress-tests the read
Sentimentweighs what survived
Editorwrites the note

Analyst desk

Mercer, Oakes, Nash, Ellis, Yates, Talbot and Archer. The desk: named AI agents, not people. Each reads one slice of the evidence and nothing else — no outside knowledge, no browsing — so every finding traces to a source you can open.

MercerAI fundamentals analyst
+1.0

Reads the XBRL figures companies file with the SEC — revenue, margins, income, debt and share count, quarter by quarter — and reports which way the trend is running.

Revenue for fiscal Q2 2026 (2026-04-01 to 2026-06-30, 3mo) was $2,386,900,000, up from fiscal Q1 2026 (2026-01-01 to 2026-03-31, 3mo) revenue of $2,201,700,000.

XBRL companyfacts · 0000815556-26-000041

Gross profit for fiscal Q2 2026 (2026-04-01 to 2026-06-30, 3mo) was $1,063,600,000 and operating income was $501,800,000, implying a gross margin of about 44.6% and an operating margin of about 21.0% for that quarter.

XBRL companyfacts · 0000815556-26-000041
OakesAI filings and risk analyst
+0.0

Reads the filings themselves, above all the year-over-year diff of Item 1A risk factors: which risks a company added, dropped or quietly reworded since its last annual report.

Which filings the desk reads

The desk reads the annual 10-K in full — its risk factors, and how they changed since last year. Quarterly 10-Qs and event filings (8-Ks, insider Form 4s) are listed for context but not read line by line: the 10-K is where the material risk disclosures live. A brand-new company, or one we have only just begun tracking, may have no annual report on file yet — its risk analysis fills in once that lands.

A Form 4 insider transaction report was filed on 2026-07-29.

4 filed 2026-07-29

A Form 4 insider transaction report was filed on 2026-08-11.

4 filed 2026-08-11
NashAI market signals analyst
+0.0

Reads the signal panel above — momentum, volatility, drawdown, relative strength and beta — and ranks each against the whole research universe rather than judging it in isolation.

Momentum measures show modest positive recent price change: momentum_3m is +9.0%, momentum_6m is +6.0%, and momentum_12_1 is +6.0%, with rank_momentum_6m at the 48th percentile of 547 and rank_momentum_12_1 at the 42th percentile of 547.

Moneyta signal set · 2026-09-01weakened in debate

Trend-state indicators are constructive on the supplied date: golden_cross is true, price_vs_sma50 is +0.5%, and price_vs_sma200 is +8.2%, with the cross_age_days equal to 128.

Moneyta signal set · 2026-09-01
EllisAI ownership and flow analyst
+1.0

Reads which funds hold the name and at what weight, plus insider Form 4 filings, to show the exposure you may already carry through index funds.

Institutional holders reported total holdings valued at "$43.22B" as of the 2026-03-31 13F reporting period.

13F holdings · 1419 filers · as of 2026-03-31

Reported institutional holdings value increased by 13.0% quarter-over-quarter in the 2026-03-31 13F period (value_qoq_pct: 13.0).

13F holdings · 1419 filers · as of 2026-03-31
YatesAI news analyst
+0.0

Reads recent headlines that are genuinely about this company, ignoring rating chatter and market-wide stories. Findings argue in the debate but never move the sentiment score.

UBS AM reduced its position in Fastenal Company by 7.3% in the 2nd quarter, per the company's most recent 13F filing.

News · thelincolnianonline.com · 2026-08-31

The Public Employees Retirement System of Ohio reduced its stake in Fastenal Company by 11.0% during the 2nd quarter, per the most recent Form 13F filing.

News · thelincolnianonline.com · 2026-08-30
TalbotAI insider activity analyst
−1.0

Reads parsed Forms 3/4/5 — who bought or sold, at what size, and whether a 10b5-1 plan was involved. Flags clustered open-market officer buying; treats plan sales as routine and never counts a fund or 10%-holder as an officer.

Donnalee Kathleen Papenfuss (EVP—Strategy and Communication) reported two purchases (1364 shares for "$19k" and 7894 shares for "$150k") and two open-market sales (1364 shares for "$70k" and 7894 shares for "$406k") in the Form 4s filed 13 August 2026; the filings show no 10b5-1 trading_plan flag for these transactions.

Form 4 · Papenfuss Donnalee Kathleen (EVP-Strategy and Communication) · $19k code M · 2026-08-13

Rita J. Heise (Director) reported acquisitions (10000 shares for "$130k" and 24964 shares for "$474k") and corresponding open-market sales (10000 shares for "$501k" and 24964 shares for "$1.2M") in the Form 4s filed 5 August 2026; the filings show no 10b5-1 trading_plan flag for these transactions.

Form 4 · Heise Rita J. (Director) · $130k code M · 2026-08-05
ArcherAI valuation analyst
−1.0

Reads the implied-expectations math built from the company's own filings (the growth rate today's price would justify, and the multiples beside it) and argues whether the market's bar looks high or low for this business. Never turns the math into a target.

The model-backed implied free cash flow growth rate that today's price would justify, under the stated discount and terminal assumptions, is 34.68% (0.3468).

Valuation inputs · SEC XBRL + stored EOD closeweakened in debate

Price to free cash flow (P/FCF, trailing twelve months) is 53.05, implying the market price equals about 53 times last twelve months' FCF.

Valuation inputs · SEC XBRL + stored EOD close

Debate and risk review

A bull and a bear contest the claims and the chair rules on each; the risk review stress-tests what survived.

Debate1 round · 7 claims contested

A bull and a bear argue the analysts' claims across two rounds, then a chair rules on each one. Only what survives feeds the score — the argument is shown, not hidden, so you can judge the reasoning yourself.

The bull case

Recent quarter-to-quarter operating results and cash generation provide a constructive fundamental backdrop: revenue, gross profit and operating income rose in Q2 2026 with a healthy ~44.6% gross margin and ~21.0% operating margin, and net income increased versus Q1. Trailing twelve‑month cash flow metrics show material operating cash flow ($1.31B) and free cash flow ($1.057B) with a small net cash position on the balance sheet, which strengthens the operational evidence despite headline valuation multiples. Market signals (positive short- and medium-term momentum, golden‑cross, price above the 200‑day SMA, and low beta/correlation) collectively indicate the security has been exhibiting constructive price behavior relative to the market, and institutional ownership figures (notably large reported holdings and a QoQ increase in institutional value) add corroborating demand-side context. The bear points—stretched implied FCF growth, high P/FCF and P/E, share count increase, insider net sales, and recent volatility/drawdowns—are valid as cautionary datapoints, but several of those items have clear evidence strength limitations (e.g., model-implied growth is contingent on assumptions and P/FCF/P/E are snapshot multiples) while the cash-flow, margin, institutional holdings, and trend signals are based on strong, recent filings and market data.

The bear case

Chair's verdict, claim by claim

UBS AM reduced its position in Fastenal Company by 7.3% in the 2nd quarter, per the company's most recent 13F filing.The UBS AM reduction of 7.3% in Q2 is reported in the cited 13F-derived news item and matches the source assertion.upheld
The Public Employees Retirement System of Ohio reduced its stake in Fastenal Company by 11.0% during the 2nd quarter, per the most recent Form 13F filing.The Public Employees Retirement System of Ohio's 11.0% reduction is reported in the supplied 13F-based news item and is supported by that source.upheld
Momentum measures show modest positive recent price change: momentum_3m is +9.0%, momentum_6m is +6.0%, and momentum_12_1 is +6.0%, with rank_momentum_6m at the 48th percentile of 547 and rank_momentum_12_1 at the 42th percentile of 547.Momentum metrics are reported, but this claim is flagged as reflecting a broader market-level pattern (base-rate), so its company-specific evidentiary weight is reduced.weakened
Risk review

Fragility · computed, not argued

diversified0.26

37 surviving claims rest on 22 distinct sources; the heaviest analyst carries 16% of them, and 97% of what the desk raised survived the debate.

The read rests on a moderate breadth of sources (22) supporting 37 claims, and most items the desk raised survived internal debate — that boosts confidence in the factual basis. However, one analyst contributes a meaningful share (16%) and source concentration is non‑trivial, so individual-source errors or analyst bias would disproportionately affect the set; treat high-survival as indicating internal consistency rather than proof against external errors.

Disconfirming evidence · base rates · falsifiers

Context

Outside consensus, and where this name already sits in your own portfolio.

The street's viewAnalyst consensus · third-party · 2026-09-01
Buy Hold Sell Target

Third-party consensus shown for context. It never enters Moneyta sentiment — when the two diverge, the debate above is where the why lives.

What this was built from

Every figure on this page traces to one of these. The desk reads only what is listed here — no outside knowledge, no browsing — and each card shows who read it and what it contributed to the score.

15 filings· 1 cited

SEC XBRL filings

Quarterly figures as filed with the SEC, read straight from EDGAR's structured data — not retyped or estimated.

Read by Mercer+0.4 to the score

5 documents· 2 cited

SEC filing documents

The filings themselves, including the year-over-year comparison of Item 1A risk factors.

Read by Oakes+0.0 to the score

1 signal set

Moneyta signal set

Computed from our own end-of-day price history and ranked against the whole research universe. No AI involved.

Read by Nash+0.1 to the score

3 holdings records· 1 cited

Fund holdings

Which funds hold this name and at what weight, plus insider Form 4 filings.

Read by Ellis+0.6 to the score

8 headlines· 2 cited

News coverage

Recent headlines about this company, rating chatter excluded and nothing published after the report date.

Read by Yatesnothing survived

6 filings· 2 cited

Insider filings

Parsed Forms 3/4/5 from EDGAR: named insiders, share counts, prices, and 10b5-1 plan state — stated and inferred flags kept apart.

Read by Talbot−0.6 to the score

1 computation

Valuation inputs

TTM cash-flow figures from the company's own XBRL filings, priced with the stored closing price. Implied growth and multiples only; no fair-value dollar figure reaches the desk, by design.

Read by Archercontext only

1 record· 0 cited

Company profile

Sector, industry and company details.

1 record· 0 cited

Analyst consensus

Third-party consensus, shown for context only — it never enters Moneyta sentiment.

Read means we pulled and handed it to an analyst; cited means a claim on this page points at it. Reading twelve quarters to state one trend is normal — the gap is shown rather than hidden.

Social sentiment

Crowd chatter as an evidence stream.

Coming soon

Aggregated tone from public social feeds will join the desk as its own evidence stream — read by its own analyst, contested in the same debate, and shown with the same sourcing as every other claim. Until it earns that bar, nothing renders here.

RPT-9b8f9b6bevidence dc7d4daaa84fgenerated 9/2/2026, 3:42:52 AM · 85s15 model calls View trail

Written by AI, checked against sources

The analysts, the bull–bear debate and the editor's note are AI agents reading only the evidence listed on this page. They can misread a filing or a headline, which is why every claim cites a source you can open and check yourself. The sentiment score is arithmetic over the claims that survived the debate, not a language model's opinion.

Educational analysis of published data. Moneyta does not give investment advice or make recommendations. Past patterns do not indicate future results.

Get this for the tickers you actually hold

Plus the one thing no sample can show: how each name correlates with your portfolio, and what hides inside your funds.

The full terminal on FAST Gold

Who holds it, who's buying, what the Street thinks: live behind the lock, updated as filings land.

Unlock

Institutional holders

Net institutional flow, Q/Q

Largest holder position

Insider buys, 90 days

Clustered insider value

Street target range

The real figures are for members. Educational analysis, not advice.

Educational analysis of published data. Moneyta does not give investment advice or make recommendations.