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FASTENAL COEvidence as of 2026-10-14The desk's Snapshot
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Overview · FASTENAL CO
Fastenal Company, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the wholesale distribution of industrial and construction supplies in the United States, Canada, Mexico, and internationally. It offers fasteners, and related industrial and construction supplies under the Fastenal name. The company's fastener products include threaded fasteners, bolts, nuts, screws, studs, and related washers, which are used in manufacture…
Management team
- Mr. William Joseph Drazkowski · Executive Vice President of SalesFind on LinkedIn
- Mr. Charles S. Miller · Senior Executive Vice President of SalesFind on LinkedIn
- Mr. Holden Lewis · Senior EVP & CFOFind on LinkedIn
- Mr. Jeffery Michael Watts · President & Chief Sales OfficerFind on LinkedIn
Start free to see the full management team.
Links open LinkedIn searches, not verified profiles. Team data from our market-data vendor's company profile.
Moneyta sentiment
Where the published evidence leans after the desk debated it, not a rating or a recommendation.
−0.3 on a −2 to +2 scale.
What builds the score
Solid bars are analyst rubric scores; faded bars are computed directly from data. Claims dropped in debate count for nothing; weakened claims count at half weight.
Editor's note
Written after the debate settled. The rest of the page is the evidence behind it.
The evidence balance is Mixed ( -0.3 of a possible +2; was -0.3 before debate) · confidence high. Reported revenue rose through the recent quarters to $ 2,386,900,000 in Q2 2026 (fiscal quarter ended 2026-07-10) from $ 2,133,300,000 in Q3 2025 (fiscal quarter ended 2025-10-10), and gross profit moved to $ 1,063,600,000 in Q2 2026 from $ 965,800,000 in Q3 2025. Operating income increased to $ 501,800,000 in Q2 2026 and net income and diluted EPS likewise rose to $ 382,800,000 and $ 0.33 in Q2 2026 from $ 335,500,000 and $ 0.29 in Q3 2025.
Balance-sheet and capital-return details survive: weighted average diluted shares edged down to 1,150,281,044 in Q2 2026, cash repurchases rose from $ 20,300,000 in Q1 2026 (fiscal quarter ended 2026-04-10) to $ 50,000,000 in Q2 2026, long-term debt declined to $ 120,000,000 as of 2026-06-30, and cash and cash equivalents were $ 204,700,000 as of 2026-06-30. Market and valuation facts held: price is above SMA50 and SMA200 (+2.2% and +10.8%), trailing P/E is 42.5, P/FCF is 55.97, and implied FCF growth embedded in the price is 36.22% per year under the model assumptions.
How this note was made
every stage ran before the note was writtenAnalyst desk
Mercer, Oakes, Nash, Ellis, Yates, Talbot and Archer. The desk: named AI agents, not people. Each reads one slice of the evidence and nothing else (no outside knowledge, no browsing), so every finding traces to a source you can open.
Reads the XBRL figures companies file with the SEC (revenue, margins, income, debt and share count, quarter by quarter) and reports which way the trend is running.
Revenue rose across the last four reported quarters: $2,133,300,000 in fiscal Q3 2025 (2025-07-01 to 2025-09-30, 3mo), $2,201,700,000 in fiscal Q1 2026 (2026-01-01 to 2026-03-31, 3mo), and $2,386,900,000 in fiscal Q2 2026 (2026-04-01 to 2026-06-30, 3mo).
XBRL companyfacts · 0000815556-25-000119Gross profit increased from $965,800,000 in fiscal Q3 2025 (2025-07-01 to 2025-09-30, 3mo) to $982,900,000 in fiscal Q1 2026 (2026-01-01 to 2026-03-31, 3mo) and $1,063,600,000 in fiscal Q2 2026 (2026-04-01 to 2026-06-30, 3mo).
XBRL companyfacts · 0000815556-25-000119Reads the filings themselves, above all the year-over-year diff of Item 1A risk factors: which risks a company added, dropped or quietly reworded since its last annual report.
Which filings the desk reads
The desk reads the annual 10-K in full: its risk factors, and how they changed since last year. Quarterly 10-Qs and event filings (8-Ks, insider Form 4s) are listed for context but not read line by line: the 10-K is where the material risk disclosures live. A brand-new company, or one we have only just begun tracking, may have no annual report on file yet; its risk analysis fills in once that lands.
The company's updated risk disclosures (filed 2026-02-05) added a new risk that interruptions or data loss in its information systems could disrupt operations, raise costs, decrease sales, and cause less efficient operations.
10-K filed 2026-02-05The updated risk disclosures (filed 2026-02-05) added a risk that the company "may not be successful in adopting and integrating emerging technologies," explicitly naming AI and advanced analytics as areas where failure to implement could adversely affect operations, customer solutions, supply chain management, and financial performance.
10-K filed 2026-02-05Reads the signal panel above (momentum, volatility, drawdown, relative strength and beta) and ranks each against the whole research universe rather than judging it in isolation.
Three‑month momentum is +14.0% and six‑month momentum is +15.9%, with six‑month momentum at the 76th percentile of the 881‑symbol research universe.
Moneyta signal set · 2026-10-13weakened in debatePrice is above both short and long moving averages: price vs SMA50 is +2.2% and price vs SMA200 is +10.8%, and a golden cross flag is true.
Moneyta signal set · 2026-10-13Reads which funds hold the name and at what weight, plus insider Form 4 filings, to show the exposure you may already carry through index funds.
Institutional 13F-reported holdings total "$46.06B" as of the reporting period ended 2026-06-30.
13F holdings · 1472 filers · as of 2026-06-30Top 13F holders include BlackRock, Inc. with "$5.11B", VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC with "$3.60B", and VANGUARD PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT LLC with "$3.12B" as reported for the period ended 2026-06-30.
13F holdings · 1472 filers · as of 2026-06-30Reads recent headlines that are genuinely about this company, ignoring rating chatter and market-wide stories. Findings argue in the debate but never move the sentiment score.
The company’s board declared a $0.26 per share quarterly cash dividend with an ex-dividend/record date of October 28, 2026 and a payment date in late November 2026.
News · finance.yahoo.com · 2026-10-13The dividend declaration and mention of share repurchase activity were announced in a company press release distributed via BusinessWire.
News · businesswire.com · 2026-10-13Reads parsed Forms 3/4/5: who bought or sold, at what size, and whether a 10b5-1 plan was involved. Flags clustered open-market officer buying; treats plan sales as routine and never counts a fund or 10%-holder as an officer.
The parsed filings show aggregate insider sales of "$2.5M" over the 180-day window.
Form 4 · Heise Rita J. (Director) · $130k code M · 2026-08-05The parsed filings show no reported insider purchases ("bought": "$0") in the provided activity set.
Form 4 · Ancius Michael J (Director) · $45k code M · 2026-04-24Reads the implied-expectations math built from the company's own filings (the growth rate today's price would justify, and the multiples beside it) and argues whether the market's bar looks high or low for this business. Never turns the math into a target.
The model-derived implied free cash flow (FCF) growth rate today's price would justify is 36.22% per year under the stated discount and terminal assumptions.
Valuation inputs · SEC XBRL + stored EOD closeThe price-to-free-cash-flow (P/FCF) multiple based on trailing twelve-month FCF is 55.97.
Valuation inputs · SEC XBRL + stored EOD closeDebate and risk review
A bull and a bear contest the claims and the chair rules on each; the risk review stress-tests what survived.
A bull and a bear argue the analysts' claims across two rounds, then a chair rules on each one. Only what survives feeds the score. The argument is shown, not hidden, so you can judge the reasoning yourself.
Several recent, consistently reported operating metrics point to an improving fundamental profile: sequential increases in revenue, gross profit, operating income, and net income/EPS across the most recent quarters are documented in the filings, accompanied by rising cash repurchases and a decline in reported long-term debt. Trailing‑twelve‑month cash flow metrics show material free cash flow and operating cash substantially exceeding capex, and the company declared a cash dividend alongside share repurchase activity in press releases. Market signals (positive momentum, price above SMA50/200, low beta and relatively low volatility) and sizable institutional ownership provide additional market-context support. The bear points (expanded risk language, insider sales, and rich multiples) merit attention, but the documented operating cash generation and sequential profit expansion materially strengthen a favorable read when judged against those negatives.
Chair's verdict, claim by claim
Fragility · computed, not argued
balanced0.34
44 surviving claims rest on 19 distinct sources; the heaviest analyst carries 18% of them, and 99% of what the desk raised survived the debate.
The surviving set is moderately broad (claims draw on nearly twenty distinct sources) which supports cross-checking, but a single analyst supplying 18% of the claims and a 99% survival rate from the desk debate suggest limited internal challenge — treat the read as informative but not heavily stress-tested. In short, there is useful corroboration across documents, yet some analyst dependence and low editorial pushback reduce how much weight to place on marginal or novel inferences.
Peer context · computed, not argued
12-1 momentum ranks 2nd of 4 in Industrial Distribution (as of 2026-10-13).
90-day volatility ranks 4th of 4 in Industrial Distribution (as of 2026-10-13).
dividend yield ranks 2nd of 4 in Industrial Distribution (as of 2026-10-13).
Disconfirming evidence · base rates · falsifiers
Context
Outside consensus, and where this name already sits in your own portfolio.
Third-party consensus shown for context. It never enters Moneyta sentiment. When the two diverge, the debate above is where the why lives.
What this was built from
Every figure on this page traces to one of these. The desk reads only what is listed here (no outside knowledge, no browsing), and each card shows who read it and what it contributed to the score.
10 filings· 2 cited
SEC XBRL filings
Quarterly figures as filed with the SEC, read straight from EDGAR's structured data, not retyped or estimated.
Read by Mercer+0.8 to the score
9 documents· 3 cited
SEC filing documents
The filings themselves, including the year-over-year comparison of Item 1A risk factors.
Read by Oakes−0.4 to the score
1 signal set
Moneyta signal set
Computed from our own end-of-day price history and ranked against the whole research universe. No AI involved.
Read by Nash+0.5 to the score
3 holdings records· 1 cited
Fund holdings
Which funds hold this name and at what weight, plus insider Form 4 filings.
Read by Ellis+0.4 to the score
8 headlines· 2 cited
News coverage
Recent headlines about this company, rating chatter excluded and nothing published after the report date.
Read by Yatesnothing survived
6 filings· 2 cited
Insider filings
Parsed Forms 3/4/5 from EDGAR: named insiders, share counts, prices, and 10b5-1 plan state, with stated and inferred flags kept apart.
Read by Talbot−1.0 to the score
1 computation
Valuation inputs
TTM cash-flow figures from the company's own XBRL filings, priced with the stored closing price. Implied growth and multiples only; no fair-value dollar figure reaches the desk, by design.
Read by Archercontext only
1 record· 0 cited
Company profile
Sector, industry and company details.
1 record· 0 cited
Analyst consensus
Third-party consensus, shown for context only; it never enters Moneyta sentiment.
Read means we pulled and handed it to an analyst; cited means a claim on this page points at it. Reading twelve quarters to state one trend is normal; the gap is shown rather than hidden.
Written by AI, checked against sources
The analysts, the bull–bear debate and the editor's note are AI agents reading only the evidence listed on this page. They can misread a filing or a headline, which is why every claim cites a source you can open and check yourself. The sentiment score is arithmetic over the claims that survived the debate, not a language model's opinion.
Educational analysis of published data. Moneyta does not give investment advice or make recommendations. Past patterns do not indicate future results.
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Institutional holders
Net institutional flow, Q/Q
Largest holder position
Insider buys, 90 days
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