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COMFORT SYSTEMS USA INCEvidence as of 2026-09-02Overview · COMFORT SYSTEMS USA INC
Comfort Systems USA, Inc. provides mechanical and electrical installation, renovation, maintenance, repair, and replacement services for the mechanical and electrical services industry in the United States. It engages in the design, engineering, integration, installation, and start-up of mechanical, electrical, and plumbing (MEP) systems; and renovation, expansion, maintenance, monitoring, repair, and replacement of…
Management team
- Mr. Joseph Nichter Jr. · President of Comfort Systems USA SouthwestFind on LinkedIn
- Brian Evans · Regional PresidentFind on LinkedIn
- John Eberhardt III · Senior Vice President of ServiceFind on LinkedIn
- Mr. R. Dean Tillison · Regional PresidentFind on LinkedIn
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Links open LinkedIn searches, not verified profiles. Team data from our market-data vendor's company profile.
Moneyta sentiment
Where the published evidence leans after the desk debated it — not a rating or a recommendation.
+0.1 on a −2 to +2 scale.
What builds the score
Solid bars are analyst rubric scores; faded bars are computed directly from data. Claims dropped in debate count for nothing; weakened claims count at half weight.
Editor's note
Written after the debate settled — the rest of the page is the evidence behind it.
The evidence balance is Mixed (+0.1 of a possible +2; was +0.1 before debate) · confidence high. Revenues rose steadily across the reported sequence from $ 2,173,319,000 in Q2 2026 (fiscal quarter ended 2026-07-17) to $ 2,450,969,000 in Q3 2025 (fiscal quarter ended 2025-10-17) to $ 2,865,332,000 in Q1 2026 (fiscal quarter ended 2026-04-17) to $ 3,265,656,000 in Q2 2026 (fiscal quarter ended 2026-07-17), while gross profit moved from $ 509,897,000 to $ 844,228,000 over the same span and gross margin expanded from 23.46% to 25.85% (peaking at 26.32% in fiscal Q1 2026). Operating income rose from $ 299,873,000 to $ 557,966,000 and operating margin improved from ~13.80% to 17.09%, and net income and diluted EPS increased from $ 230,848,000 / $ 6.53 to $ 441,602,000 / $ 12.53 across those quarters.
The balance sheet inputs in the packet show a materially larger cash position ($ 1,854,794,000 as of 2026-06-30) versus reported long-term debt ($ 54,064,000 as of 2026-06-30), producing a net cash presentation in the evidence. Valuation signals in the set are mixed: price-to-earnings (TTM) is 41.25, price-to-FCF (TTM) is 151.44 with FCF (LTM) $ 363,191,000 and FCF per share 10.3021, and market metrics show high sensitivity to the market (beta_spy = 2.54), elevated volatility (90‑day annualized ~ 59.1%), price slightly below the 50‑day SMA (price_vs_sma50 = -9.6%) but above the 200‑day (price_vs_sma200 = +5.1%) with a golden cross flagged.
How this note was made
every stage ran before the note was writtenAnalyst desk
Mercer, Oakes, Nash, Ellis, Yates, Talbot and Archer. The desk: named AI agents, not people. Each reads one slice of the evidence and nothing else — no outside knowledge, no browsing — so every finding traces to a source you can open.
Reads the XBRL figures companies file with the SEC — revenue, margins, income, debt and share count, quarter by quarter — and reports which way the trend is running.
Revenues rose from $2,173,319,000 in the fiscal quarter Q2 2026 (2025-04-01 to 2025-06-30) to $2,450,969,000 in Q3 2025 (2025-07-01 to 2025-09-30) to $2,865,332,000 in fiscal Q1 2026 (2026-01-01 to 2026-03-31) and to $3,265,656,000 in fiscal Q2 2026 (2026-04-01 to 2026-06-30).
XBRL companyfacts · 0001104659-26-086258Gross profit increased across the same sequence of quarters: $509,897,000 (Q2 2026 period 2025-04-01 to 2025-06-30) -> $607,871,000 (Q3 2025 period 2025-07-01 to 2025-09-30) -> $754,412,000 (fiscal Q1 2026, 2026-01-01 to 2026-03-31) -> $844,228,000 (fiscal Q2 2026, 2026-04-01 to 2026-06-30).
XBRL companyfacts · 0001104659-26-086258Reads the filings themselves, above all the year-over-year diff of Item 1A risk factors: which risks a company added, dropped or quietly reworded since its last annual report.
Which filings the desk reads
The desk reads the annual 10-K in full — its risk factors, and how they changed since last year. Quarterly 10-Qs and event filings (8-Ks, insider Form 4s) are listed for context but not read line by line: the 10-K is where the material risk disclosures live. A brand-new company, or one we have only just begun tracking, may have no annual report on file yet — its risk analysis fills in once that lands.
A Form 4 with the 4 filed 18 August 2026 was filed on 2026-08-18 (insider transaction disclosure present in the evidence set).
4 filed 2026-08-18A Form 4 with the 4 filed 27 August 2026 was filed on 2026-08-27 (insider transaction disclosure present in the evidence set).
4 filed 2026-08-27Reads the signal panel above — momentum, volatility, drawdown, relative strength and beta — and ranks each against the whole research universe rather than judging it in isolation.
As of 2026-09-02 the security has a high market sensitivity to SPY with beta_spy = 2.54 and a moderate correlation to SPY of 0.57.
Moneyta signal set · 2026-09-02Short-term momentum is mixed: momentum_3m = -15.6% while momentum_6m = +9.2% (rank_momentum_6m = 55th percentile of 547), and the 12_1 momentum measure is strongly positive at +156.0% (rank_momentum_12_1 = 95th percentile of 547).
Moneyta signal set · 2026-09-02weakened in debateReads which funds hold the name and at what weight, plus insider Form 4 filings, to show the exposure you may already carry through index funds.
As of 2026-09-02T13:45:47.228469+00:00 the company is a holding in the iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV) at 0.11% weight of that fund.
ETF constituents · market dataTwo Form 4 insider filings appear in the record with filed dates 18 August 2026 and 27 August 2026.
Form 4 × 2 (90d window not enforced here)Reads recent headlines that are genuinely about this company, ignoring rating chatter and market-wide stories. Findings argue in the debate but never move the sentiment score.
Several outlets present valuation-focused analysis that compares a discounted cash flow (intrinsic) estimate to the market price, implying the stock is being discussed in the context of potential undervaluation.
News · gurufocus.com · 2026-09-02Two consumer-facing finance sites ran near-identical headlines arguing there is a 'case for buying' after a roughly 20% drop from the stock's all-time high, framing the story around a pullback versus the company's backlog and multi-year tailwinds.
News · finance.yahoo.com · 2026-09-02Reads parsed Forms 3/4/5 — who bought or sold, at what size, and whether a 10b5-1 plan was involved. Flags clustered open-market officer buying; treats plan sales as routine and never counts a fund or 10%-holder as an officer.
Brian E. Lane (Chief Executive Officer) sold 16,024 shares for a reported value of "$25.8M" on 2026-08-26.
Form 4 · Lane Brian E. (CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFF.) · $25.8M sold · 2026-08-26William George III (Chief Financial Officer) sold 2,554 shares for a reported value of "$4.7M" on 2026-08-17.
Form 4 · GEORGE WILLIAM III (CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER) · $4.7M sold · 2026-08-17Reads the implied-expectations math built from the company's own filings (the growth rate today's price would justify, and the multiples beside it) and argues whether the market's bar looks high or low for this business. Never turns the math into a target.
The valuation model reports an implied free cash flow (FCF) growth rate of 0.6778 (67.78%) that today's price would justify under the stated discount and terminal assumptions.
Valuation inputs · SEC XBRL + stored EOD closePrice-to-FCF (TTM) is 151.44, implying the market price equals about 151.4 times last-twelve-months free cash flow.
Valuation inputs · SEC XBRL + stored EOD closeDebate and risk review
A bull and a bear contest the claims and the chair rules on each; the risk review stress-tests what survived.
A bull and a bear argue the analysts' claims across two rounds, then a chair rules on each one. Only what survives feeds the score — the argument is shown, not hidden, so you can judge the reasoning yourself.
Several company-specific fundamentals in the provided evidence jointly support a favorable read: sequential quarterly revenue, gross profit, operating income, and net income all rise across the four-quarter sequence (fundamentals-0, fundamentals-1, fundamentals-3, fundamentals-4). Gross margin and operating margin expanded over the same window (fundamentals-2, fundamentals-3), and diluted shares are essentially stable (fundamentals-5), implying that EPS gains are driven by operating performance rather than share count reduction. The balance sheet shows a material increase in cash and a net-cash posture at the quarter-end inputs used (fundamentals-6, valuation-4), which can provide optionality for reinvestment or capital allocation. These points, together with multiple buy-side analyst actions in the consensus snapshot, form the core of the bull case when judged on the submitted evidence.
Chair's verdict, claim by claim
Fragility · computed, not argued
balanced0.34
38 surviving claims rest on 17 distinct sources; the heaviest analyst carries 21% of them, and 99% of what the desk raised survived the debate.
The surviving set rests on a moderate breadth of underlying sources but a non-trivial portion of the desk's conclusions come from a few key contributors — the largest analyst accounts for about one-fifth of surviving claims. The very high debate-survival rate (99%) means these claims were rarely overturned in review, increasing confidence in internal consistency; however, many claims still trace back to the same filings and outlets, so the read is sensitive to any errors or omissions in those primary documents.
Disconfirming evidence · base rates · falsifiers
Context
Outside consensus, and where this name already sits in your own portfolio.
Third-party consensus shown for context. It never enters Moneyta sentiment — when the two diverge, the debate above is where the why lives.
What this was built from
Every figure on this page traces to one of these. The desk reads only what is listed here — no outside knowledge, no browsing — and each card shows who read it and what it contributed to the score.
11 filings· 1 cited
SEC XBRL filings
Quarterly figures as filed with the SEC, read straight from EDGAR's structured data — not retyped or estimated.
Read by Mercer+1.6 to the score
2 documents
SEC filing documents
The filings themselves, including the year-over-year comparison of Item 1A risk factors.
Read by Oakes+0.0 to the score
1 signal set
Moneyta signal set
Computed from our own end-of-day price history and ranked against the whole research universe. No AI involved.
Read by Nash−0.4 to the score
2 holdings records
Fund holdings
Which funds hold this name and at what weight, plus insider Form 4 filings.
Read by Ellis+0.0 to the score
8 headlines· 2 cited
News coverage
Recent headlines about this company, rating chatter excluded and nothing published after the report date.
Read by Yatesnothing survived
2 filings
Insider filings
Parsed Forms 3/4/5 from EDGAR: named insiders, share counts, prices, and 10b5-1 plan state — stated and inferred flags kept apart.
Read by Talbot−0.6 to the score
1 computation
Valuation inputs
TTM cash-flow figures from the company's own XBRL filings, priced with the stored closing price. Implied growth and multiples only; no fair-value dollar figure reaches the desk, by design.
Read by Archercontext only
1 record· 0 cited
Company profile
Sector, industry and company details.
1 record· 0 cited
Analyst consensus
Third-party consensus, shown for context only — it never enters Moneyta sentiment.
Read means we pulled and handed it to an analyst; cited means a claim on this page points at it. Reading twelve quarters to state one trend is normal — the gap is shown rather than hidden.
Written by AI, checked against sources
The analysts, the bull–bear debate and the editor's note are AI agents reading only the evidence listed on this page. They can misread a filing or a headline, which is why every claim cites a source you can open and check yourself. The sentiment score is arithmetic over the claims that survived the debate, not a language model's opinion.
Educational analysis of published data. Moneyta does not give investment advice or make recommendations. Past patterns do not indicate future results.
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Institutional holders
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Insider buys, 90 days
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The real figures are for members. Educational analysis, not advice.
Educational analysis of published data. Moneyta does not give investment advice or make recommendations.