FIX
COMFORT SYSTEMS USA INCEvidence as of 2026-09-19The desk's Snapshot
3 of 15 open to everyone · members see allRead the full desk report on FIX
Seven analysts, the debate, the risk review, every claim cited. And the same for every name you hold.
Free plan, no credit card required. Silver opens the full report, $19.99 a month. AI-written · every claim cites a source · Insight, not advice.
Overview · COMFORT SYSTEMS USA INC
Comfort Systems USA, Inc. provides mechanical and electrical installation, renovation, maintenance, repair, and replacement services for the mechanical and electrical services industry in the United States. It engages in the design, engineering, integration, installation, and start-up of mechanical, electrical, and plumbing (MEP) systems; and renovation, expansion, maintenance, monitoring, repair, and replacement of…
Management team
- Mr. Joseph Nichter Jr. · President of Comfort Systems USA SouthwestFind on LinkedIn
- Brian Evans · Regional PresidentFind on LinkedIn
- John Eberhardt III · Senior Vice President of ServiceFind on LinkedIn
- Mr. R. Dean Tillison · Regional PresidentFind on LinkedIn
Start free to see the full management team.
Links open LinkedIn searches, not verified profiles. Team data from our market-data vendor's company profile.
Moneyta sentiment
Where the published evidence leans after the desk debated it, not a rating or a recommendation.
−0.3 on a −2 to +2 scale (was −0.2 before the debate changed the read).
What builds the score
Solid bars are analyst rubric scores; faded bars are computed directly from data. Claims dropped in debate count for nothing; weakened claims count at half weight.
Editor's note
Written after the debate settled. The rest of the page is the evidence behind it.
Evidence balance: Mixed ( -0.3 of a possible +2; was -0.2 before debate) · confidence high. Revenues and margins trended higher across the recent fiscal quarters: revenues rose from $ 2,173,319,000 in Q2 2025 (fiscal quarter ended 2025-07-18) to $ 2,450,969,000 in Q3 2025 (fiscal quarter ended 2025-10-17), then to $ 2,865,332,000 in Q1 2026 (fiscal quarter ended 2026-04-17) and $ 3,265,656,000 in Q2 2026 (fiscal quarter ended 2026-07-17). Gross profit increased from $ 509,897,000 in Q2 2025 to $ 844,228,000 in Q2 2026 with implied gross margins moving from about 23.5% to roughly 25.8% over the same span, and operating income rose from $ 299,873,000 to $ 557,966,000 with operating margins expanding to about 17.1% in Q2 2026.
Net income and diluted EPS also climbed through the sequence, from $ 230,848,000 and $ 6.53 in Q2 2025 to $ 441,602,000 and $ 12.53 in Q2 2026, while diluted share counts were essentially stable near 35.25 million. The company’s cash position strengthened materially to $ 1,854,794,000 as of 2026-06-30 against modest reported debt of $ 54,064,000, producing a net cash balance on the balance sheet; backlog disclosed in the FY 2025 10-K was $ 11.94 billion (reported 19 February 2026), up from $ 5.99 billion the prior year.
How this note was made
every stage ran before the note was writtenAnalyst desk
Mercer, Oakes, Nash, Ellis, Yates, Talbot and Archer. The desk: named AI agents, not people. Each reads one slice of the evidence and nothing else (no outside knowledge, no browsing), so every finding traces to a source you can open.
Reads the XBRL figures companies file with the SEC (revenue, margins, income, debt and share count, quarter by quarter) and reports which way the trend is running.
Revenues by fiscal quarter rose from $2,173,319,000 in Q2 2025 (2025-04-01 to 2025-06-30) to $2,450,969,000 in Q3 2025 (2025-07-01 to 2025-09-30), then to $2,865,332,000 in fiscal Q1 2026 (2026-01-01 to 2026-03-31) and $3,265,656,000 in fiscal Q2 2026 (2026-04-01 to 2026-06-30).
XBRL companyfacts · 0001104659-26-086258Gross profit and gross margin trended higher across these quarters: gross profit rose from $509,897,000 in Q2 2025 to $607,523,000 in Q3 2025, $754,412,000 in fiscal Q1 2026 and $844,228,000 in fiscal Q2 2026; implied gross margin increased from about 23.5% in Q2 2025 to ~24.8% in Q3 2025, ~26.3% in fiscal Q1 2026 and ~25.8% in fiscal Q2 2026 (gross profit / revenues using the quarter pairs above).
XBRL companyfacts · 0001104659-26-086258Reads the filings themselves, above all the year-over-year diff of Item 1A risk factors: which risks a company added, dropped or quietly reworded since its last annual report.
Which filings the desk reads
The desk reads the annual 10-K in full: its risk factors, and how they changed since last year. Quarterly 10-Qs and event filings (8-Ks, insider Form 4s) are listed for context but not read line by line: the 10-K is where the material risk disclosures live. A brand-new company, or one we have only just begun tracking, may have no annual report on file yet; its risk analysis fills in once that lands.
The company reported backlog of $11.94 billion as of December 31, 2025 in the Form 10-K filed 19 February 2026.
10-K filed 2026-02-19The company previously reported backlog of $5.99 billion as of December 31, 2024 in the Form 10-K filed 20 February 2025.
10-K filed 2025-02-20Reads the signal panel above (momentum, volatility, drawdown, relative strength and beta) and ranks each against the whole research universe rather than judging it in isolation.
Beta versus SPY is 2.50 and correlation versus SPY is 0.56, indicating high market sensitivity with only moderate correlation to the broad U.S. equity ETF on the as-of date.
Moneyta signal set · 2026-09-18Short-term momentum over 3 months is -16.0%, while 6-month momentum is +14.4% (62th percentile of 561), showing a recent pullback from a stronger mid-term trend.
Moneyta signal set · 2026-09-18weakened in debateReads which funds hold the name and at what weight, plus insider Form 4 filings, to show the exposure you may already carry through index funds.
Institutional holders reported aggregate holdings valued at "$64.75B" in the 13F snapshot for the period ended 2026-06-30, with 1,358 reporting holders and a quarter-over-quarter holder_count_delta of 1,242.
13F holdings · 1358 filers · as of 2026-06-30BlackRock, Inc., VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC, VANGUARD PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT LLC, FMR LLC, and STATE STREET CORP were listed as the top institutional holders with reported values of "$6.73B", "$4.55B", "$3.70B", "$3.29B", and "$3.05B" respectively (as of the 13F period ended 2026-06-30).
13F holdings · 1358 filers · as of 2026-06-30Reads recent headlines that are genuinely about this company, ignoring rating chatter and market-wide stories. Findings argue in the debate but never move the sentiment score.
Two investor letters published on finance.yahoo.com mention Comfort Systems USA in the context of fund positioning for the second quarter of 2026, linking the company to portfolio moves described in those letters.
News · finance.yahoo.com · 2026-09-16An investor-letter-style item on finance.yahoo.com reports Artisan Partners added Comfort Systems USA to a fund as part of commentary about accelerating data center demand in the second quarter of 2026.
News · finance.yahoo.com · 2026-09-08Reads parsed Forms 3/4/5: who bought or sold, at what size, and whether a 10b5-1 plan was involved. Flags clustered open-market officer buying; treats plan sales as routine and never counts a fund or 10%-holder as an officer.
Brian E. Lane, Chief Executive Officer, reported an open-market sale of 16,024 shares for $25.8M on 2026-08-26; no 10b5-1 trading plan is indicated in the filing.
Form 4 · Lane Brian E. (CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFF.) · $25.8M sold · 2026-08-26William George III, Chief Financial Officer, reported an open-market sale of 2,554 shares for $4.7M on 2026-08-17; no 10b5-1 trading plan is indicated in the filing.
Form 4 · GEORGE WILLIAM III (CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER) · $4.7M sold · 2026-08-17Reads the implied-expectations math built from the company's own filings (the growth rate today's price would justify, and the multiples beside it) and argues whether the market's bar looks high or low for this business. Never turns the math into a target.
The model-backed implied free-cash-flow (FCF) growth rate that today’s price would justify is 0.6977 (approximately 69.77%).
Valuation inputs · SEC XBRL + stored EOD closePrice-to-trailing-twelve-months free cash flow (P/FCF) is 160.29, implying the market price equals about 160 times the last twelve months of FCF.
Valuation inputs · SEC XBRL + stored EOD closeDebate and risk review
A bull and a bear contest the claims and the chair rules on each; the risk review stress-tests what survived.
A bull and a bear argue the analysts' claims across two rounds, then a chair rules on each one. Only what survives feeds the score. The argument is shown, not hidden, so you can judge the reasoning yourself.
The company-level financial evidence shows a clear sequence of top-line and margin expansion with rising revenues, gross profit, operating income, and net income across the reported quarters; these items (fundamentals-0 through fundamentals-3) are sourced from SEC filings and carry relatively strong evidence scores. Cash balances rose materially over the period and the balance sheet shows a net cash position (fundamentals-5; valuation-3), which is corroborated by stable diluted share counts (fundamentals-4) and a sizable backlog increase year-over-year (filings-0 vs filings-1). Market signals are mixed but the 12-month momentum metric is a strong relative performer (market-2) and price sits above the 200-day average with a golden cross present (market-3), which together support a favorable reading when paired with the fundamental trajectory. Against the bear points about valuation, insider sales, and elevated volatility, the evidence strength differs: the valuation metrics (valuation-0, valuation-1, valuation-2) are model outputs that flag premium pricing (we treat those as weaker company-operational evidence), insider filings show sales but are limited in number and lack full trade-plan context (insider-0, insider-1), and volatility/beta metrics (market-4, market-0) reflect market sensitivity rather than company earnings quality. Taken jointly, the highest-strength filings and fundamentals suggest operational improvement and stronger liquidity, while the negative items warrant caution but are less directly tied to the core earnings trajectory.
Chair's verdict, claim by claim
Fragility · computed, not argued
balanced0.30
37 surviving claims rest on 20 distinct sources; the heaviest analyst carries 22% of them, and 97% of what the desk raised survived the debate.
The surviving set spans many primary sources, which reduces single-source risk, but a sizable share of claims trace back to a limited number of analysts (the heaviest carries about one-fifth). Also, nearly all desk assertions survived internal debate, which raises the possibility of confirmation persistence — the read is relatively robust but not immune to analyst-concentration and survivorship biases.
Disconfirming evidence · base rates · falsifiers
Context
Outside consensus, and where this name already sits in your own portfolio.
Third-party consensus shown for context. It never enters Moneyta sentiment. When the two diverge, the debate above is where the why lives.
What this was built from
Every figure on this page traces to one of these. The desk reads only what is listed here (no outside knowledge, no browsing), and each card shows who read it and what it contributed to the score.
11 filings· 3 cited
SEC XBRL filings
Quarterly figures as filed with the SEC, read straight from EDGAR's structured data, not retyped or estimated.
Read by Mercer+1.3 to the score
6 documents· 4 cited
SEC filing documents
The filings themselves, including the year-over-year comparison of Item 1A risk factors.
Read by Oakes+0.0 to the score
1 signal set
Moneyta signal set
Computed from our own end-of-day price history and ranked against the whole research universe. No AI involved.
Read by Nash−0.3 to the score
3 holdings records· 1 cited
Fund holdings
Which funds hold this name and at what weight, plus insider Form 4 filings.
Read by Ellis+0.5 to the score
8 headlines· 2 cited
News coverage
Recent headlines about this company, rating chatter excluded and nothing published after the report date.
Read by Yatesnothing survived
2 filings
Insider filings
Parsed Forms 3/4/5 from EDGAR: named insiders, share counts, prices, and 10b5-1 plan state, with stated and inferred flags kept apart.
Read by Talbot−1.0 to the score
1 computation
Valuation inputs
TTM cash-flow figures from the company's own XBRL filings, priced with the stored closing price. Implied growth and multiples only; no fair-value dollar figure reaches the desk, by design.
Read by Archercontext only
1 record· 0 cited
Company profile
Sector, industry and company details.
1 record· 0 cited
Analyst consensus
Third-party consensus, shown for context only; it never enters Moneyta sentiment.
Read means we pulled and handed it to an analyst; cited means a claim on this page points at it. Reading twelve quarters to state one trend is normal; the gap is shown rather than hidden.
Written by AI, checked against sources
The analysts, the bull–bear debate and the editor's note are AI agents reading only the evidence listed on this page. They can misread a filing or a headline, which is why every claim cites a source you can open and check yourself. The sentiment score is arithmetic over the claims that survived the debate, not a language model's opinion.
Educational analysis of published data. Moneyta does not give investment advice or make recommendations. Past patterns do not indicate future results.
The full terminal on FIX Gold
Who holds it, who's buying, what the Street thinks: live behind the lock, updated as filings land.
Institutional holders
Net institutional flow, Q/Q
Largest holder position
Insider buys, 90 days
Clustered insider value
Street target range
The real figures are for members. Educational analysis, not advice.
Get this for the names you actually hold
Every name in your portfolio, researched the same way, plus the one thing no sample can show: how each one sits inside what you already own.
Educational analysis of published data. Moneyta does not give investment advice or make recommendations.