ITW
ILLINOIS TOOL WORKS INCEvidence as of 2026-09-03Overview · ILLINOIS TOOL WORKS INC
Illinois Tool Works Inc. manufactures and sells industrial products and equipment worldwide. It operates through seven segments: Automotive OEM; Food Equipment; Test & Measurement and Electronics; Welding; Polymers & Fluids; Construction Products; and Specialty Products. The Automotive OEM segment offers plastic and metal components, fasteners, and assemblies for automobiles, light trucks, and other industrial uses.…
Management team
- Ms. Patricia A. Hartzell · Executive Vice President of Test, Measurement & ElectronicFind on LinkedIn
- Mr. Axel R. J. Beck · Executive Vice President of Food EquipmentFind on LinkedIn
- Mr. Kenneth T. Escoe · Executive Vice President of Specialty ProductsFind on LinkedIn
- Ms. Mary Katherine Lawler · Senior VP & Chief Human Resources OfficerFind on LinkedIn
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Links open LinkedIn searches, not verified profiles. Team data from our market-data vendor's company profile.
Moneyta sentiment
Where the published evidence leans after the desk debated it — not a rating or a recommendation.
−0.0 on a −2 to +2 scale.
What builds the score
Solid bars are analyst rubric scores; faded bars are computed directly from data. Claims dropped in debate count for nothing; weakened claims count at half weight.
Editor's note
Written after the debate settled — the rest of the page is the evidence behind it.
What the evidence shows
The surviving record is mixed. Revenue rose from $ 3.839 billion in fiscal Q1 2025 (fiscal quarter ended 2025-03-31) to $ 4.301 billion in fiscal Q2 2026 (fiscal quarter ended 2026-06-30), and operating income increased from $ 951 million to $ 1.147 billion over the same span. Diluted EPS recovered from $ 2.38 in fiscal Q1 2025 to $ 2.84 in fiscal Q2 2026 while weighted‑average diluted shares fell from 294.5 million to 287.0 million, and gross margin held roughly in the low‑ to mid‑50% range (for example, ≈ 53.0% in fiscal Q1 2026 and ≈ 52.7% in fiscal Q2 2026). Market signals are mixed: a recently formed golden cross is recorded (cross_age_days 35) even as six‑month momentum is negative (‑5.2%), volatility is elevated (30‑ and 90‑day annualized vol ≈ 21.6% / 21.4%), beta to the SPY is low (0.51), and dividend metrics show three‑year dividend growth +7.1% with a TTM yield of 2.39%.
What the debate changed
The desk’s debate did not remove or reverse any surviving claim; nothing was dropped or weakened to the point of being discarded. That said, the discussion highlighted two strains of uncertainty that softened the market read: the six‑month momentum and several insider‑transaction entries were flagged as weakened, and the Form 4 records in the packet are unparsed, which reduces clarity about the timing and nature of reported insider activity. Those points shifted how much emphasis the desk placed on short‑term momentum and insider signaling, but they did not change the fundamental quarter‑to‑quarter accounting figures in the filings.
How this note was made
every stage ran before the note was writtenAnalyst desk
Mercer, Oakes, Nash, Ellis, Yates, Talbot and Archer. The desk: named AI agents, not people. Each reads one slice of the evidence and nothing else — no outside knowledge, no browsing — so every finding traces to a source you can open.
Reads the XBRL figures companies file with the SEC — revenue, margins, income, debt and share count, quarter by quarter — and reports which way the trend is running.
Revenue increased from $3.839 billion in fiscal Q1 2025 (2025-01-01 to 2025-03-31) to $4.301 billion in fiscal Q2 2026 (2026-04-01 to 2026-06-30).
XBRL companyfacts · 0000049826-26-000049Operating income rose from $951 million in fiscal Q1 2025 (2025-01-01 to 2025-03-31) to $1.147 billion in fiscal Q2 2026 (2026-04-01 to 2026-06-30).
XBRL companyfacts · 0000049826-26-000049Reads the filings themselves, above all the year-over-year diff of Item 1A risk factors: which risks a company added, dropped or quietly reworded since its last annual report.
Which filings the desk reads
The desk reads the annual 10-K in full — its risk factors, and how they changed since last year. Quarterly 10-Qs and event filings (8-Ks, insider Form 4s) are listed for context but not read line by line: the 10-K is where the material risk disclosures live. A brand-new company, or one we have only just begun tracking, may have no annual report on file yet — its risk analysis fills in once that lands.
A Form 4 reporting insider transactions for ILLINOIS TOOL WORKS INC was filed with the SEC on 21 August 2026.
4 filed 2026-08-21A Form 4 reporting insider transactions for ILLINOIS TOOL WORKS INC was filed with the SEC on 17 August 2026.
4 filed 2026-08-17Reads the signal panel above — momentum, volatility, drawdown, relative strength and beta — and ranks each against the whole research universe rather than judging it in isolation.
As of 2026-09-02, the 12-month momentum (momentum_12_1) is +19.9% and ranks in the 56th percentile of the 547-stock research universe.
Moneyta signal set · 2026-09-02weakened in debateAs of 2026-09-02, the 6-month momentum (momentum_6m) is -5.2% and ranks in the 25th percentile of the 547-stock research universe.
Moneyta signal set · 2026-09-02weakened in debateReads which funds hold the name and at what weight, plus insider Form 4 filings, to show the exposure you may already carry through index funds.
As of 2026-09-02T13:45:47.228469+00:00, ITW is a holding in the IVV ETF at 0.11% weight of that fund.
ETF constituents · market dataThere are two Form 4 filings for ITW filed in August 2026, with filing dates 2026-08-17 and 2026-08-21.
Form 4 × 2 (90d window not enforced here)Reads recent headlines that are genuinely about this company, ignoring rating chatter and market-wide stories. Findings argue in the debate but never move the sentiment score.
A gurufocus.com headline on 2026-09-02 presented a DCF-based intrinsic value of $157 versus a market price of $270 for Illinois Tool Works Inc.
News · gurufocus.com · 2026-09-02Multiple distinct filings-focused headlines report institutional activity in the second quarter: Van ECK Associates Corp sold 10,049 ITW shares, UBS AM trimmed its position by 11.6% and reported $414.12 million in holdings, Canada Pension Plan Investment Board bought 88,701 shares (a $23.99 million position), and Man Group plc acquired 52,844 shares (a $14.29 million position).
News · thelincolnianonline.com · 2026-09-01Reads parsed Forms 3/4/5 — who bought or sold, at what size, and whether a 10b5-1 plan was involved. Flags clustered open-market officer buying; treats plan sales as routine and never counts a fund or 10%-holder as an officer.
On 2026-08-19, SANTI ERNEST SCOTT (Director) reported a transaction with value "$7.8M", coded "code M", for "41431" shares.
Form 4 · SANTI ERNEST SCOTT (Director) · $7.8M code M · 2026-08-19weakened in debateOn 2026-08-19, SANTI ERNEST SCOTT (Director) reported a sale with value "$6.4M" for "22471" shares.
Form 4 · SANTI ERNEST SCOTT (Director) · $7.8M code M · 2026-08-19weakened in debateReads the implied-expectations math built from the company's own filings (the growth rate today's price would justify, and the multiples beside it) and argues whether the market's bar looks high or low for this business. Never turns the math into a target.
The model states an implied free cash flow (FCF) growth rate of 0.2411 (24.11%) that today's price would justify under the stated discount and terminal assumptions.
Valuation inputs · SEC XBRL + stored EOD closePrice-to-FCF (TTM) is 36.21, implying the market price equals about 36 times trailing twelve-month FCF.
Valuation inputs · SEC XBRL + stored EOD closeDebate and risk review
A bull and a bear contest the claims and the chair rules on each; the risk review stress-tests what survived.
A bull and a bear argue the analysts' claims across two rounds, then a chair rules on each one. Only what survives feeds the score — the argument is shown, not hidden, so you can judge the reasoning yourself.
Recent SEC-filed quarter data provide relatively strong evidence of improving operating performance: revenue, operating income, and diluted EPS all increased from fiscal Q1 2025 to fiscal Q2 2026 (claims fundamentals-0, fundamentals-1, fundamentals-3), and share count declined over the same interval (fundamentals-4), which strengthens EPS recovery on a per-share basis. These fundamentals are supported by stable gross margins across quarters (fundamentals-2) and a meaningful trailing FCF level relative to earnings (valuation-4), which are well-documented in the filings and trailing-financial figures. Market signals that are supplyable from the dataset — a recently formed golden cross with price above the 200-day SMA (market-2), positive 12-month momentum (market-0), low market sensitivity to the S&P (market-5), and multi-year dividend growth and yield metrics (market-6) — provide corroborating, independently computed technical and income-oriented evidence. Against prominent negatives in the record (insider sales, a low DCF-based headline, 6-month weakness, elevated short-term volatility and higher P/FCF), the company-specific, filed-financial improvements and the product-launch news (news-3) are relatively strong, primary-source items; they materially weaken arguments that the company lacks operating improvement or cash-generation support in the dataset.
Chair's verdict, claim by claim
Fragility · computed, not argued
balanced0.36
36 surviving claims rest on 16 distinct sources; the heaviest analyst carries 19% of them, and 89% of what the desk raised survived the debate.
The evidence set is moderately robust: 36 surviving claims draw on 16 distinct sources, so the read isn't narrowly sourced, but a single analyst still contributes nearly a fifth of claims which raises sensitivity to that person's inputs. High debate survival (89%) indicates internal consistency, yet source concentration and analyst weight mean the collection should be treated as informative but not definitive when used to draw strong conclusions.
Peer context · computed, not argued
12-1 momentum ranks 7th of 12 in Specialty Industrial Machinery (as of 2026-09-02).
90-day volatility ranks 12th of 12 in Specialty Industrial Machinery (as of 2026-09-02).
dividend yield ranks 2nd of 12 in Specialty Industrial Machinery (as of 2026-09-02).
Disconfirming evidence · base rates · falsifiers
Context
Outside consensus, and where this name already sits in your own portfolio.
Third-party consensus shown for context. It never enters Moneyta sentiment — when the two diverge, the debate above is where the why lives.
What this was built from
Every figure on this page traces to one of these. The desk reads only what is listed here — no outside knowledge, no browsing — and each card shows who read it and what it contributed to the score.
15 filings· 1 cited
SEC XBRL filings
Quarterly figures as filed with the SEC, read straight from EDGAR's structured data — not retyped or estimated.
Read by Mercer+0.7 to the score
2 documents
SEC filing documents
The filings themselves, including the year-over-year comparison of Item 1A risk factors.
Read by Oakes+0.0 to the score
1 signal set
Moneyta signal set
Computed from our own end-of-day price history and ranked against the whole research universe. No AI involved.
Read by Nash+0.2 to the score
2 holdings records
Fund holdings
Which funds hold this name and at what weight, plus insider Form 4 filings.
Read by Ellis+0.0 to the score
8 headlines· 2 cited
News coverage
Recent headlines about this company, rating chatter excluded and nothing published after the report date.
Read by Yatesnothing survived
2 filings· 1 cited
Insider filings
Parsed Forms 3/4/5 from EDGAR: named insiders, share counts, prices, and 10b5-1 plan state — stated and inferred flags kept apart.
Read by Talbot−1.0 to the score
1 computation
Valuation inputs
TTM cash-flow figures from the company's own XBRL filings, priced with the stored closing price. Implied growth and multiples only; no fair-value dollar figure reaches the desk, by design.
Read by Archercontext only
1 record· 0 cited
Company profile
Sector, industry and company details.
1 record· 0 cited
Analyst consensus
Third-party consensus, shown for context only — it never enters Moneyta sentiment.
Read means we pulled and handed it to an analyst; cited means a claim on this page points at it. Reading twelve quarters to state one trend is normal — the gap is shown rather than hidden.
Written by AI, checked against sources
The analysts, the bull–bear debate and the editor's note are AI agents reading only the evidence listed on this page. They can misread a filing or a headline, which is why every claim cites a source you can open and check yourself. The sentiment score is arithmetic over the claims that survived the debate, not a language model's opinion.
Educational analysis of published data. Moneyta does not give investment advice or make recommendations. Past patterns do not indicate future results.
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The full terminal on ITW Gold
Who holds it, who's buying, what the Street thinks: live behind the lock, updated as filings land.
Institutional holders
Net institutional flow, Q/Q
Largest holder position
Insider buys, 90 days
Clustered insider value
Street target range
The real figures are for members. Educational analysis, not advice.
Educational analysis of published data. Moneyta does not give investment advice or make recommendations.