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Lumentum Holdings Inc.Evidence as of 2026-10-06The desk's Snapshot
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Overview · Lumentum Holdings Inc.
Lumentum Holdings Inc. manufactures and sells optical and photonic products in the Americas, the Asia-Pacific, Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. The company operates in two segments, Optical Communications (OpComms) and Commercial Lasers (Lasers). The OpComms segment offers components, modules, and subsystems that enable the transmission and transport of video, audio, and data over high-capacity fiber optic cables…
Management team
- Mr. Christopher W. Coldren Ph.D. · Senior VP and Chief Strategy & Corporate Development OfficerFind on LinkedIn
- Ms. Kathryn Ta · Vice President of Investor RelationsFind on LinkedIn
- Mr. Michael E. Hurlston · President, CEO & DirectorFind on LinkedIn
- Mr. Alan S. Lowe · Advisor & DirectorFind on LinkedIn
Start free to see the full management team.
Links open LinkedIn searches, not verified profiles. Team data from our market-data vendor's company profile.
Moneyta sentiment
Where the published evidence leans after the desk debated it, not a rating or a recommendation.
+0.3 on a −2 to +2 scale (was +0.4 before the debate changed the read).
What builds the score
Solid bars are analyst rubric scores; faded bars are computed directly from data. Claims dropped in debate count for nothing; weakened claims count at half weight.
Editor's note
Written after the debate settled. The rest of the page is the evidence behind it.
The surviving evidence paints a mixed operational picture with significant share‑count dilution alongside accelerating single‑quarter profits. Common shares outstanding rose from 69,900,000 as of FY 2025 (fiscal quarter ended 2025-08-12) to 89,700,000 as of FY 2026 (fiscal quarter ended 2026-08-14), and weighted average diluted shares climbed from 78,300,000 in Q1 2026 (fiscal quarter ended 2025-10-28) to 96,200,000 in Q3 2026 (fiscal quarter ended 2026-04-30).
Over the same sequence of fiscal quarters, net income increased from $ 4,200,000 in Q1 2026 to $ 144,200,000 in Q3 2026, and diluted EPS rose from $ 0.05 to $ 1.50, while gross profit moved from $ 181,500,000 to $ 357,000,000 and operating income from $ 6,700,000 to $ 174,500,000. Balance‑sheet and market signals are mixed: cash and equivalents expanded to $ 2,617,800,000 by 2026-03-28 then declined to $ 2,043,500,000 as of 2026-06-27, reported long‑term noncurrent debt fell materially in later filings to $ 43,200,000 as of 2026-03-28, and valuation metrics show negative trailing‑12‑month free cash flow of $ -115,000,000 and a trailing P/E of 606.48.
How this note was made
every stage ran before the note was writtenAnalyst desk
Mercer, Oakes, Nash, Ellis, Yates, Talbot and Archer. The desk: named AI agents, not people. Each reads one slice of the evidence and nothing else (no outside knowledge, no browsing), so every finding traces to a source you can open.
Reads the XBRL figures companies file with the SEC (revenue, margins, income, debt and share count, quarter by quarter) and reports which way the trend is running.
Entity common shares outstanding rose from 69,900,000 as of 2025-08-12 to 89,700,000 as of 2026-08-14.
XBRL companyfacts · 0001628280-25-040830Weighted average diluted shares outstanding increased quarter-to-quarter: 78,300,000 for fiscal Q1 2026 (2025-06-29 to 2025-09-27), 87,800,000 for fiscal Q2 2026 (2025-09-28 to 2025-12-27), and 96,200,000 for fiscal Q3 2026 (2025-12-28 to 2026-03-28).
XBRL companyfacts · 0001628280-25-049073Reads the filings themselves, above all the year-over-year diff of Item 1A risk factors: which risks a company added, dropped or quietly reworded since its last annual report.
Which filings the desk reads
The desk reads the annual 10-K in full: its risk factors, and how they changed since last year. Quarterly 10-Qs and event filings (8-Ks, insider Form 4s) are listed for context but not read line by line: the 10-K is where the material risk disclosures live. A brand-new company, or one we have only just begun tracking, may have no annual report on file yet; its risk analysis fills in once that lands.
In the Management's Discussion and Analysis filed 2026-08-17, management states they reorganized during the first quarter of fiscal year 2026 and now report as a single, integrated enterprise with the Chief Executive Officer acting as the Chief Operating Decision Maker.
Management's discussion · filed 2026-08-17In the Management's Discussion and Analysis filed 2026-08-17, management characterizes the company as "a global leader in optical and photonic technologies" and says its products are essential to cloud, AI/ML, telecommunications, consumer, and industrial end-market applications.
Management's discussion · filed 2026-08-17Reads the signal panel above (momentum, volatility, drawdown, relative strength and beta) and ranks each against the whole research universe rather than judging it in isolation.
Momentum over the past 3 months is +56.2% (88th percentile versus the 765-stock research universe as of 2026-10-05).
Moneyta signal set · 2026-10-05weakened in debateMomentum measured as 12_1 (12-month return excluding most recent month) is +531.8% and ranks at the 100th percentile of the 765-stock research universe as of 2026-10-05.
Moneyta signal set · 2026-10-05weakened in debateReads which funds hold the name and at what weight, plus insider Form 4 filings, to show the exposure you may already carry through index funds.
13F-reported institutional ownership totaled "$86.20B" as of 2026-06-30, with 1,331 holders and a net increase of 233 holders quarter-over-quarter.
13F holdings · 1331 filers · as of 2026-06-30BlackRock, Inc. was the largest 13F-reported holder at "$7.90B" as of 2026-06-30; Susquehanna International Group, Jane Street Group, Vanguard Capital Management, and Vanguard Portfolio Management also appear among the top five with "$6.52B", "$4.73B", "$4.36B", and "$3.51B" respectively.
13F holdings · 1331 filers · as of 2026-06-30Reads recent headlines that are genuinely about this company, ignoring rating chatter and market-wide stories. Findings argue in the debate but never move the sentiment score.
Several headlines note an AI-related demand theme for Lumentum, including a specific claim that Nvidia's co‑packaged optics shipments could create a new demand engine for Lumentum.
News · finance.yahoo.com · 2026-10-04Coverage highlights Lumentum's product and marketing activity at ECOC 2026, mentioning a joint optical interconnect demo with Qualcomm and Corning and an eight‑wavelength DWDM laser module showcased as part of its AI optics push.
News · finance.yahoo.com · 2026-10-04Reads parsed Forms 3/4/5: who bought or sold, at what size, and whether a 10b5-1 plan was involved. Flags clustered open-market officer buying; treats plan sales as routine and never counts a fund or 10%-holder as an officer.
Wupen Yuen (PRESIDENT, GLOBAL BUS. UNITS) executed repeated sales of 500 shares each under a stated 10b5-1 plan, including a sale for "$460k" on 2026-09-18.
Form 4 · Wupen Yuen (PRESIDENT, GLOBAL BUS. UNITS) · $460k sold · 2026-09-18Wupen Yuen (PRESIDENT, GLOBAL BUS. UNITS) executed repeated sales of 500 shares each under a stated 10b5-1 plan, including a sale for "$481k" on 2026-09-10.
Form 4 · Wupen Yuen (PRESIDENT, GLOBAL BUS. UNITS) · $481k sold · 2026-09-10Reads the implied-expectations math built from the company's own filings (the growth rate today's price would justify, and the multiples beside it) and argues whether the market's bar looks high or low for this business. Never turns the math into a target.
Trailing-12-month free cash flow is negative $115,000,000.
Valuation inputs · SEC XBRL + stored EOD closePrice / trailing-12-month earnings (P/E) is 606.48.
Valuation inputs · SEC XBRL + stored EOD closeDebate and risk review
A bull and a bear contest the claims and the chair rules on each; the risk review stress-tests what survived.
A bull and a bear argue the analysts' claims across two rounds, then a chair rules on each one. Only what survives feeds the score. The argument is shown, not hidden, so you can judge the reasoning yourself.
The evidence shows marked operational improvement quarter-to-quarter: net income, diluted EPS, gross profit, and operating income all increased materially across the three fiscal quarters, while cash balances rose substantially and reported long-term debt declined in later filings. Market- and ownership-related signals align with those fundamentals: exceptional 12-month momentum, price above key moving averages, growing institutional holder counts and large reported positions, plus recent analyst buy-side coverage and multiple news items tying demand to AI/cloud trends. Some valuation and cash-flow negatives appear linked to heavy capex and share-count changes disclosed in filings, and several insider disposals were executed under stated 10b5-1 plans. Taken together, these claims jointly support a favorable operational and demand-side read, while the most significant weak points (high headline P/E, negative trailing FCF, short-term volatility, insider sales) can be viewed in the context of rapid scaling, financing activity, and governance disclosures.
Chair's verdict, claim by claim
Fragility · computed, not argued
balanced0.30
38 surviving claims rest on 20 distinct sources; the heaviest analyst carries 18% of them, and 95% of what the desk raised survived the debate.
The evidence set is moderately diverse (20 sources) and produced a substantial number of surviving claims; however, one analyst accounts for a meaningful single share of the desk’s conclusions and a very high debate survival rate indicates most challenges did not dislodge claims. Together this implies the read is informative but not highly resilient — source concentration and analyst leverage mean individual new filings or strong contrary market moves could materially change confidence in specific claims.
Peer context · computed, not argued
12-1 momentum ranks 1st of 8 in Communication Equipment (as of 2026-10-05).
90-day volatility ranks 2nd of 8 in Communication Equipment (as of 2026-10-05).
Disconfirming evidence · base rates · falsifiers
Context
Outside consensus, and where this name already sits in your own portfolio.
Third-party consensus shown for context. It never enters Moneyta sentiment. When the two diverge, the debate above is where the why lives.
What this was built from
Every figure on this page traces to one of these. The desk reads only what is listed here (no outside knowledge, no browsing), and each card shows who read it and what it contributed to the score.
9 filings· 3 cited
SEC XBRL filings
Quarterly figures as filed with the SEC, read straight from EDGAR's structured data, not retyped or estimated.
Read by Mercer+1.6 to the score
11 documents· 1 cited
SEC filing documents
The filings themselves, including the year-over-year comparison of Item 1A risk factors.
Read by Oakes+0.4 to the score
1 signal set
Moneyta signal set
Computed from our own end-of-day price history and ranked against the whole research universe. No AI involved.
Read by Nash−0.3 to the score
3 holdings records· 1 cited
Fund holdings
Which funds hold this name and at what weight, plus insider Form 4 filings.
Read by Ellis+0.8 to the score
8 headlines· 2 cited
News coverage
Recent headlines about this company, rating chatter excluded and nothing published after the report date.
Read by Yatesnothing survived
10 filings· 2 cited
Insider filings
Parsed Forms 3/4/5 from EDGAR: named insiders, share counts, prices, and 10b5-1 plan state, with stated and inferred flags kept apart.
Read by Talbot−0.9 to the score
1 computation
Valuation inputs
TTM cash-flow figures from the company's own XBRL filings, priced with the stored closing price. Implied growth and multiples only; no fair-value dollar figure reaches the desk, by design.
Read by Archercontext only
1 record· 0 cited
Company profile
Sector, industry and company details.
1 record· 0 cited
Analyst consensus
Third-party consensus, shown for context only; it never enters Moneyta sentiment.
Read means we pulled and handed it to an analyst; cited means a claim on this page points at it. Reading twelve quarters to state one trend is normal; the gap is shown rather than hidden.
Written by AI, checked against sources
The analysts, the bull–bear debate and the editor's note are AI agents reading only the evidence listed on this page. They can misread a filing or a headline, which is why every claim cites a source you can open and check yourself. The sentiment score is arithmetic over the claims that survived the debate, not a language model's opinion.
Educational analysis of published data. Moneyta does not give investment advice or make recommendations. Past patterns do not indicate future results.
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