LLY
Eli Lilly and CompanyEvidence as of 2026-09-12The desk's Snapshot
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Overview · Eli Lilly and Company
Eli Lilly and Company discovers, develops, and markets human pharmaceuticals worldwide. It offers Basaglar, Humalog, Humalog Mix 75/25, Humalog U-100, Humalog U-200, Humalog Mix 50/50, insulin lispro, insulin lispro protamine, insulin lispro mix 75/25, Humulin, Humulin 70/30, Humulin N, Humulin R, and Humulin U-500 for diabetes; and Jardiance, Trajenta, and Trulicity for type 2 diabetes. The company provides Alimta f…
Management team
- Mr. Gordon Brooks · Group VP, Controller & Corporate StrategyFind on LinkedIn
- Mr. Jacob S. Van Naarden · Executive VP & President of LoxoFind on LinkedIn
- Ms. Anat Hakim J.D. · Executive VP, General Counsel & SecretaryFind on LinkedIn
- Dr. Daniel M. Skovronsky M.D., Ph.D. · EVP, Chief Scientific Officer and President of Lilly Research Laboratories & Lilly immunologyFind on LinkedIn
Start free to see the full management team.
Links open LinkedIn searches, not verified profiles. Team data from our market-data vendor's company profile.
Moneyta sentiment
Where the published evidence leans after the desk debated it, not a rating or a recommendation.
−0.3 on a −2 to +2 scale (was −0.4 before the debate changed the read).
What builds the score
Solid bars are analyst rubric scores; faded bars are computed directly from data. Claims dropped in debate count for nothing; weakened claims count at half weight.
Editor's note
Written after the debate settled. The rest of the page is the evidence behind it.
The evidence balance is Mixed ( -0.3 of a possible +2; was -0.4 before debate) with high confidence. Reported revenues rose across the recent fiscal quarters: $ 15,557,700,000 in fiscal Q2 2025 (fiscal quarter ended 2025-08-04), $ 17,600,800,000 in fiscal Q3 2025 (fiscal quarter ended 2025-10-27), $ 19,799,000,000 in fiscal Q1 2026 (fiscal quarter ended 2026-04-27), and $ 22,974,000,000 in fiscal Q2 2026 (fiscal quarter ended 2026-08-03). Diluted EPS over those same points were $ 6.29, $ 6.21, $ 8.26, and $ 7.94 respectively, while common shares outstanding trended downward from 947,735,651 (as of fiscal Q1 2025, fiscal quarter ended 2025-04-28) to 941,357,065 (as of 2026-08-03).
The filings record added risk disclosures in the 10-K filed 12 February 2026 about R&D cost and uncertainty, preliminary U.S. government agreements announced November 2025, pricing and reimbursement pressures, and supply-chain/manufacturing risks. Cash and cash equivalents increased from $ 3,375,900,000 (as of 2025-06-30) to $ 8,950,000,000 (as of 2026-06-30), while reported long-term noncurrent debt increased from $ 34,180,100,000 (as of 2025-06-30) to $ 47,858,000,000 (as of 2026-06-30). Market signals show 12‑month momentum at +93.4% (91st percentile), price 4.9% above the 200‑day SMA with a golden‑cross present, three‑month momentum -3.9% and six‑month +14.4%, beta versus SPY 0.31, and three‑year max drawdown -34.5%.
How this note was made
every stage ran before the note was writtenAnalyst desk
Mercer, Oakes, Nash, Ellis, Yates, Talbot and Archer. The desk: named AI agents, not people. Each reads one slice of the evidence and nothing else (no outside knowledge, no browsing), so every finding traces to a source you can open.
Reads the XBRL figures companies file with the SEC (revenue, margins, income, debt and share count, quarter by quarter) and reports which way the trend is running.
Reported revenues rose across the recent quarters: $15,557,700,000 in the fiscal Q2 2025 quarter (2025-04-01 to 2025-06-30), $17,600,800,000 in fiscal Q3 2025 (2025-07-01 to 2025-09-30), $19,799,000,000 in fiscal Q1 2026 (2026-01-01 to 2026-03-31), and $22,974,000,000 in fiscal Q2 2026 (2026-04-01 to 2026-06-30).
XBRL companyfacts · 0000059478-25-000204Diluted earnings per share were $6.29 in the fiscal Q2 2025 quarter (2025-04-01 to 2025-06-30), $6.21 in fiscal Q3 2025 (2025-07-01 to 2025-09-30), $8.26 in fiscal Q1 2026 (2026-01-01 to 2026-03-31), and $7.94 in fiscal Q2 2026 (2026-04-01 to 2026-06-30).
XBRL companyfacts · 0000059478-26-000045Reads the filings themselves, above all the year-over-year diff of Item 1A risk factors: which risks a company added, dropped or quietly reworded since its last annual report.
Which filings the desk reads
The desk reads the annual 10-K in full: its risk factors, and how they changed since last year. Quarterly 10-Qs and event filings (8-Ks, insider Form 4s) are listed for context but not read line by line: the 10-K is where the material risk disclosures live. A brand-new company, or one we have only just begun tracking, may have no annual report on file yet; its risk analysis fills in once that lands.
The company filed a Form 10-K on 12 February 2026 (the 10-K filed 12 February 2026) that, relative to the prior year, added multiple material risk-factor disclosures including heightened language about the high cost and uncertainty of pharmaceutical R&D and the possibility that substantial R&D investment may not produce financial returns.
Item 1A risk-factor diff · 0000059478-26-000013 vs 0000059478-25-000067The 2026 10-K (filed 12 February 2026) added explicit risk text describing preliminary voluntary agreements announced in November 2025 with the U.S. government and the attendant risks and uncertainties in negotiating definitive terms that could affect pricing, access, and other objectives.
Item 1A risk-factor diff · 0000059478-26-000013 vs 0000059478-25-000067Reads the signal panel above (momentum, volatility, drawdown, relative strength and beta) and ranks each against the whole research universe rather than judging it in isolation.
Momentum over the prior 12 months (12_1) is +93.4%, and this metric ranks in the 91th percentile of the 558-stock research universe as of 2026-09-11.
Moneyta signal set · 2026-09-11weakened in debatePrice is 4.9% above the 200-day simple moving average and a golden_cross signal is present as of 2026-09-11.
Moneyta signal set · 2026-09-11Reads which funds hold the name and at what weight, plus insider Form 4 filings, to show the exposure you may already carry through index funds.
Institutional reported holdings total "$707.81B" and the holdings data is for the period ended 2026-03-31 with 4,332 holders and 2 new positions reported.
13F holdings · 4332 filers · as of 2026-03-31The institutional snapshot shows a quarter-over-quarter reported value change of "-16.2%", with 331 exited positions and a holder count delta of "-108" for the period ended 2026-03-31.
13F holdings · 4332 filers · as of 2026-03-31Reads recent headlines that are genuinely about this company, ignoring rating chatter and market-wide stories. Findings argue in the debate but never move the sentiment score.
A 11 September 2026 headline asks whether Eli Lilly can keep its obesity pipeline growing, focusing coverage on the company’s obesity drug development prospects.
News · kalkinemedia.com · 2026-09-11A 11 September 2026 headline reports that Eli Lilly finalized a $2.8 billion acquisition of AtaiBeckley, stating deal consideration of $6.75 per share plus contingent value rights worth up to $2.50.
News · blockonomi.com · 2026-09-11Reads parsed Forms 3/4/5: who bought or sold, at what size, and whether a 10b5-1 plan was involved. Flags clustered open-market officer buying; treats plan sales as routine and never counts a fund or 10%-holder as an officer.
Patrik Jonsson (EVP & President, LLY Int'l) reported selling 6,500 shares for $7.6M under a 10b5-1 plan on 2026-08-17.
Form 4 · Jonsson Patrik (EVP & President, LLY Int'l) · $7.6M sold · 2026-08-17Donald A. Zakrowski (SVP, Finance, & CAO) reported selling 2,000 shares for $2.4M under a 10b5-1 plan on 2026-08-10.
Form 4 · Zakrowski Donald A (SVP, Finance, & CAO) · $2.4M sold · 2026-08-10Reads the implied-expectations math built from the company's own filings (the growth rate today's price would justify, and the multiples beside it) and argues whether the market's bar looks high or low for this business. Never turns the math into a target.
The model reports an implied free-cash-flow growth rate of 0.5809 (58.09%) that today's price would justify under the stated discount and terminal assumptions.
Valuation inputs · SEC XBRL + stored EOD closePrice-to-free-cash-flow (price/FCF) based on trailing twelve months FCF is 113.72.
Valuation inputs · SEC XBRL + stored EOD closeDebate and risk review
A bull and a bear contest the claims and the chair rules on each; the risk review stress-tests what survived.
A bull and a bear argue the analysts' claims across two rounds, then a chair rules on each one. Only what survives feeds the score. The argument is shown, not hidden, so you can judge the reasoning yourself.
Several company-specific fundamentals collectively support a favorable read: sequential quarterly revenue and generally healthy EPS series are directly sourced from filings and present strong, consistent evidence; declining share count plus recent repurchases and a sizable increase in cash provide medium-strength evidence that per-share metrics and liquidity improved even while leverage changed. Market signals (very strong 12-month momentum, a golden-cross, and low beta) add corroborating, strong evidence of positive price action and lower market sensitivity. The bear points about rising long-term debt and stretched valuation are weakened by inconsistent debt figures across the provided items (the long-term debt increase claim conflicts with the valuation item that lists a materially different long-term debt amount), and the valuation negatives are partially offset by reported TTM free cash flow and high trailing FCF per share (both present medium-strength support). Finally, insider sales appear concentrated and many are reported as 10b5-1 plans (documented in filings), so while notable, that evidence is medium-to-weak when weighed against the stronger, direct operating and cash-flow data and the prevailing analyst buy-side consensus in the provided street snapshot.
Chair's verdict, claim by claim
Fragility · computed, not argued
balanced0.31
36 surviving claims rest on 18 distinct sources; the heaviest analyst carries 17% of them, and 94% of what the desk raised survived the debate.
The read rests on a moderate breadth of distinct sources but a relatively small number of analysts drive a noticeable share of surviving claims; that raises sensitivity to analyst-level errors or bias. High survival through debate means the desk found most evidence internally consistent, but source concentration and an analyst carrying 17% of claims reduce how much confidence to place in single-line inferences from this package — corroboration from additional independent filings or market data would strengthen it.
Peer context · computed, not argued
12-1 momentum ranks 1st of 10 in Drug Manufacturers—General (as of 2026-09-11).
dividend yield ranks 10th of 10 in Drug Manufacturers—General (as of 2026-09-11).
Disconfirming evidence · base rates · falsifiers
Context
Outside consensus, and where this name already sits in your own portfolio.
Third-party consensus shown for context. It never enters Moneyta sentiment. When the two diverge, the debate above is where the why lives.
What this was built from
Every figure on this page traces to one of these. The desk reads only what is listed here (no outside knowledge, no browsing), and each card shows who read it and what it contributed to the score.
12 filings· 3 cited
SEC XBRL filings
Quarterly figures as filed with the SEC, read straight from EDGAR's structured data, not retyped or estimated.
Read by Mercer+1.0 to the score
12 documents· 1 cited
SEC filing documents
The filings themselves, including the year-over-year comparison of Item 1A risk factors.
Read by Oakes−1.0 to the score
1 signal set
Moneyta signal set
Computed from our own end-of-day price history and ranked against the whole research universe. No AI involved.
Read by Nash+0.4 to the score
3 holdings records· 1 cited
Fund holdings
Which funds hold this name and at what weight, plus insider Form 4 filings.
Read by Ellis+0.2 to the score
2 headlines
News coverage
Recent headlines about this company, rating chatter excluded and nothing published after the report date.
Read by Yatesnothing survived
19 filings· 2 cited
Insider filings
Parsed Forms 3/4/5 from EDGAR: named insiders, share counts, prices, and 10b5-1 plan state, with stated and inferred flags kept apart.
Read by Talbot−0.7 to the score
1 computation
Valuation inputs
TTM cash-flow figures from the company's own XBRL filings, priced with the stored closing price. Implied growth and multiples only; no fair-value dollar figure reaches the desk, by design.
Read by Archercontext only
1 record· 0 cited
Company profile
Sector, industry and company details.
1 record· 0 cited
Analyst consensus
Third-party consensus, shown for context only; it never enters Moneyta sentiment.
Read means we pulled and handed it to an analyst; cited means a claim on this page points at it. Reading twelve quarters to state one trend is normal; the gap is shown rather than hidden.
Written by AI, checked against sources
The analysts, the bull–bear debate and the editor's note are AI agents reading only the evidence listed on this page. They can misread a filing or a headline, which is why every claim cites a source you can open and check yourself. The sentiment score is arithmetic over the claims that survived the debate, not a language model's opinion.
Educational analysis of published data. Moneyta does not give investment advice or make recommendations. Past patterns do not indicate future results.
The full terminal on LLY Gold
Who holds it, who's buying, what the Street thinks: live behind the lock, updated as filings land.
Institutional holders
Net institutional flow, Q/Q
Largest holder position
Insider buys, 90 days
Clustered insider value
Street target range
The real figures are for members. Educational analysis, not advice.
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Educational analysis of published data. Moneyta does not give investment advice or make recommendations.