LMND
Lemonade, Inc.Evidence as of 2026-09-04The desk's Snapshot
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Overview · Lemonade, Inc.
Lemonade, Inc. provides various insurance products in the United States and Europe. Its insurance products include stolen or damaged property, and personal liability that protects its customers if they are responsible for an accident or damage to another person or their property. The company also offers renters, homeowners, car, pet, and life insurance products, as well as landlord insurance policies. In addition, it…
Management team
- Mr. Timothy E. Bixby · CFO & Principal Accounting OfficerFind on LinkedIn
- Mr. Shai Wininger Gavish · Co-Founder, President & DirectorFind on LinkedIn
- Mr. Daniel Asher Schreiber · CO-Founder, Chairman & CEOFind on LinkedIn
- Mr. Dan Richard Preston · Senior VP of Strategic InitiativesFind on LinkedIn
Start free to see the full management team.
Links open LinkedIn searches, not verified profiles. Team data from our market-data vendor's company profile.
Moneyta sentiment
Where the published evidence leans after the desk debated it, not a rating or a recommendation.
−0.6 on a −2 to +2 scale.
What builds the score
Solid bars are analyst rubric scores; faded bars are computed directly from data. Claims dropped in debate count for nothing; weakened claims count at half weight.
Editor's note
Written after the debate settled. The rest of the page is the evidence behind it.
Evidence balance: Cautious ( -0.6 of a possible +2; confidence high ). Revenue growth is clear: revenues rose from $ 164,100,000 in the fiscal quarter ended 2025-06-30 (3mo) to $ 194,500,000 in the fiscal quarter ended 2025-09-30 (3mo), then to $ 258,000,000 in the fiscal quarter ended 2026-03-31 (3mo) and $ 294,400,000 in the fiscal quarter ended 2026-06-30 (3mo). Yearly revenue also expanded from $ 429.8 million for the year ended 2023 to $ 526.5 million for the year ended 2024 and $ 737.9 million for the year ended 2025, per the 10-K filed February 25, 2026.
Profitability remains negative: quarterly net losses were -$ 43,900,000, -$ 37,500,000, -$ 35,800,000 and -$ 43,400,000 across the same four quarters, with diluted EPS of -$ 0.60, -$ 0.51, -$ 0.47 and -$ 0.56 respectively. Cash on hand was $ 345,900,000 as of 2025-09-30, $ 374,300,000 as of 2026-03-31 and $ 367,600,000 as of 2026-06-30, while trailing twelve‑month free cash flow is negative $ 135,000,000 and EPS TTM is -$ 2.14.
How this note was made
every stage ran before the note was writtenAnalyst desk
Mercer, Oakes, Nash, Ellis, Yates, Talbot and Archer. The desk: named AI agents, not people. Each reads one slice of the evidence and nothing else (no outside knowledge, no browsing), so every finding traces to a source you can open.
Reads the XBRL figures companies file with the SEC (revenue, margins, income, debt and share count, quarter by quarter) and reports which way the trend is running.
Revenues rose from $164,100,000 in the quarter 2025-04-01 to 2025-06-30 (3mo) to $194,500,000 in the quarter 2025-07-01 to 2025-09-30 (3mo), then to $258,000,000 in the quarter 2026-01-01 to 2026-03-31 (3mo), and to $294,400,000 in the quarter 2026-04-01 to 2026-06-30 (3mo).
XBRL companyfacts · 0001691421-25-000124Net loss by quarter was -$43,900,000 in the quarter 2025-04-01 to 2025-06-30 (3mo), -$37,500,000 in the quarter 2025-07-01 to 2025-09-30 (3mo), -$35,800,000 in the quarter 2026-01-01 to 2026-03-31 (3mo), and -$43,400,000 in the quarter 2026-04-01 to 2026-06-30 (3mo).
XBRL companyfacts · 0001691421-25-000124Reads the filings themselves, above all the year-over-year diff of Item 1A risk factors: which risks a company added, dropped or quietly reworded since its last annual report.
Which filings the desk reads
The desk reads the annual 10-K in full: its risk factors, and how they changed since last year. Quarterly 10-Qs and event filings (8-Ks, insider Form 4s) are listed for context but not read line by line: the 10-K is where the material risk disclosures live. A brand-new company, or one we have only just begun tracking, may have no annual report on file yet; its risk analysis fills in once that lands.
As of December 31, 2025 the company reported an accumulated deficit of $1,464.3 million and recorded net losses of $165.5 million for the year ended December 31, 2025 (compared with an accumulated deficit of $1,298.8 million and net loss of $202.2 million for the year ended December 31, 2024).
10-K filed 2026-02-25Revenue grew from $429.8 million for the year ended December 31, 2023 to $526.5 million for the year ended December 31, 2024 and $737.9 million for the year ended December 31, 2025, placing increased demands on management and resources, per the 10-K filed February 25, 2026.
10-K filed 2026-02-25Reads the signal panel above (momentum, volatility, drawdown, relative strength and beta) and ranks each against the whole research universe rather than judging it in isolation.
Beta vs SPY is 2.85 and correlation vs SPY is 0.45 on 2026-09-03.
Moneyta signal set · 2026-09-0330‑day annualized volatility is +83.8% and 90‑day annualized volatility is +73.3%, with 90‑day volatility at the 87th percentile of the 547‑ticker research universe.
Moneyta signal set · 2026-09-03Reads which funds hold the name and at what weight, plus insider Form 4 filings, to show the exposure you may already carry through index funds.
13F-reported institutional holdings total $3.08B as of the reporting period ended 2026-03-31, with reported quarter-over-quarter value change of -12.1% and 347 institutional holders (holder_count_delta_qoq -6).
13F holdings · 347 filers · as of 2026-03-31Top reported institutional holders in the 13F as of the reporting period ended 2026-03-31 include BlackRock, Inc. at $311.5M, JPMorgan Chase & Co at $309.0M, and two Vanguard entities reporting new positions at $189.2M and $186.9M respectively.
13F holdings · 347 filers · as of 2026-03-31Reads recent headlines that are genuinely about this company, ignoring rating chatter and market-wide stories. Findings argue in the debate but never move the sentiment score.
A PR Newswire release announced Lemonade launched Lemonade Car in Missouri and introduced a Lemonade Autonomous offering (press release format).
News · prnewswire.com · 2026-09-02A PR Newswire release and a Yahoo Finance item reported that Lemonade expanded availability of its renters insurance into Kansas.
News · prnewswire.com · 2026-09-01Reads parsed Forms 3/4/5: who bought or sold, at what size, and whether a 10b5-1 plan was involved. Flags clustered open-market officer buying; treats plan sales as routine and never counts a fund or 10%-holder as an officer.
John Sheldon Peters (Chief Insurance Officer) sold 11,000 shares for "$578k" on 2026-08-13.
Form 4 · Peters John Sheldon (Chief Insurance Officer) · $578k sold · 2026-08-13John Sheldon Peters (Chief Insurance Officer) reported sales totaling "$191k" (3,608 shares) under a stated 10b5-1 plan on 2026-06-04.
Form 4 · Peters John Sheldon (Chief Insurance Officer) · $191k sold · 2026-06-04Reads the implied-expectations math built from the company's own filings (the growth rate today's price would justify, and the multiples beside it) and argues whether the market's bar looks high or low for this business. Never turns the math into a target.
As of the price date 2026-09-03 the share price used in this analysis is $55.08 and the market capitalization is $4,263,005,554.
Valuation inputs · SEC XBRL + stored EOD closeFree cash flow for the trailing twelve months is negative $135,000,000 (FCF per share -$1.7536).
Valuation inputs · SEC XBRL + stored EOD closeDebate and risk review
A bull and a bear contest the claims and the chair rules on each; the risk review stress-tests what survived.
A bull and a bear argue the analysts' claims across two rounds, then a chair rules on each one. Only what survives feeds the score. The argument is shown, not hidden, so you can judge the reasoning yourself.
The evidence shows accelerating top-line growth and continued investment that together support a constructive operational read. Revenues rose materially across the last reported quarters (fundamentals-0) while R&D spend also increased quarter-over-quarter (fundamentals-4), consistent with management scaling product and underwriting capabilities; cash balances remained sizeable (fundamentals-5 / valuation-4) to support that growth. Market and ownership signals provide additional context: momentum measures are mixed-to-positive with strong 12‑month momentum (market-2), the name is included in multiple ETFs and held by large institutions (ownership-2, ownership-1), and recent product launches and geographic expansion items in press releases show active go-to-market activity (news-0, news-1, news-2). When weighing these data points against downside items, the strongest bear points rely on profitability, cash-flow negatives, share dilution and high volatility (fundamentals-1, fundamentals-2, fundamentals-3, valuation-1, valuation-2, market-1); while those are significant, the revenue scale-up, R&D investment, and cash buffer are the most directly supportive evidence for a favorable operational interpretation.
Chair's verdict, claim by claim
Fragility · computed, not argued
balanced0.32
39 surviving claims rest on 18 distinct sources; the heaviest analyst carries 15% of them, and 97% of what the desk raised survived the debate.
The surviving set is moderately concentrated: 39 claims draw on 18 distinct sources, so multiple independent documents support the read but several claims still depend on the same filings and analysts. One analyst authored 15% of claims and 97% of proposed points survived internal debate, which increases confidence in internal consistency but also signals lower fragility tolerance — a small source or interpretation error in a key filing could shift conclusions materially.
Peer context · computed, not argued
12-1 momentum ranks 1st of 3 in Insurance—Property & Casualty (as of 2026-09-03).
6-month relative strength ranks 3rd of 3 in Insurance—Property & Casualty (as of 2026-09-03).
90-day volatility ranks 1st of 3 in Insurance—Property & Casualty (as of 2026-09-03).
Disconfirming evidence · base rates · falsifiers
Context
Outside consensus, and where this name already sits in your own portfolio.
Third-party consensus shown for context. It never enters Moneyta sentiment. When the two diverge, the debate above is where the why lives.
What this was built from
Every figure on this page traces to one of these. The desk reads only what is listed here (no outside knowledge, no browsing), and each card shows who read it and what it contributed to the score.
11 filings· 2 cited
SEC XBRL filings
Quarterly figures as filed with the SEC, read straight from EDGAR's structured data, not retyped or estimated.
Read by Mercer−0.2 to the score
10 documents· 2 cited
SEC filing documents
The filings themselves, including the year-over-year comparison of Item 1A risk factors.
Read by Oakes−0.7 to the score
1 signal set
Moneyta signal set
Computed from our own end-of-day price history and ranked against the whole research universe. No AI involved.
Read by Nash−1.0 to the score
3 holdings records· 1 cited
Fund holdings
Which funds hold this name and at what weight, plus insider Form 4 filings.
Read by Ellis+0.3 to the score
8 headlines· 2 cited
News coverage
Recent headlines about this company, rating chatter excluded and nothing published after the report date.
Read by Yatesnothing survived
16 filings· 2 cited
Insider filings
Parsed Forms 3/4/5 from EDGAR: named insiders, share counts, prices, and 10b5-1 plan state, with stated and inferred flags kept apart.
Read by Talbot+0.0 to the score
1 computation
Valuation inputs
TTM cash-flow figures from the company's own XBRL filings, priced with the stored closing price. Implied growth and multiples only; no fair-value dollar figure reaches the desk, by design.
Read by Archercontext only
1 record· 0 cited
Company profile
Sector, industry and company details.
1 record· 0 cited
Analyst consensus
Third-party consensus, shown for context only; it never enters Moneyta sentiment.
Read means we pulled and handed it to an analyst; cited means a claim on this page points at it. Reading twelve quarters to state one trend is normal; the gap is shown rather than hidden.
Written by AI, checked against sources
The analysts, the bull–bear debate and the editor's note are AI agents reading only the evidence listed on this page. They can misread a filing or a headline, which is why every claim cites a source you can open and check yourself. The sentiment score is arithmetic over the claims that survived the debate, not a language model's opinion.
Educational analysis of published data. Moneyta does not give investment advice or make recommendations. Past patterns do not indicate future results.
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Institutional holders
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