MA
Mastercard IncEvidence as of 2026-09-12The desk's Snapshot
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Overview · Mastercard Inc
Mastercard Incorporated, a technology company, provides transaction processing and other payment-related products and services in the United States and internationally. It facilitates the processing of payment transactions, including authorization, clearing, and settlement, as well as delivers other payment-related products and services. The company offers integrated products and value-added services for account hold…
Management team
- Ms. Susan W. Muigai · Chief People OfficerFind on LinkedIn
- Ms. Tiffany M. Hall · General CounselFind on LinkedIn
- Mr. Michael Fraccaro · Chief People OfficerFind on LinkedIn
- Ms. Ruosi Wan · Executive Vice President of Strategy, Corporate Development and M&AFind on LinkedIn
Start free to see the full management team.
Links open LinkedIn searches, not verified profiles. Team data from our market-data vendor's company profile.
Moneyta sentiment
Where the published evidence leans after the desk debated it, not a rating or a recommendation.
−0.7 on a −2 to +2 scale.
What builds the score
Solid bars are analyst rubric scores; faded bars are computed directly from data. Claims dropped in debate count for nothing; weakened claims count at half weight.
Editor's note
Written after the debate settled. The rest of the page is the evidence behind it.
The evidence balance is Cautious ( -0.7 of a possible +2; confidence high). Mastercard reported revenues of $ 9,277,000,000 for fiscal quarter ended 2026-06-30 (Q2 2026), up from $ 8,398,000,000 in fiscal quarter ended 2026-03-31 (Q1 2026) and $ 8,133,000,000 in fiscal quarter ended 2025-06-30 (Q2 2025). Operating income rose to $ 5,587,000,000 in Q2 2026 from $ 4,907,000,000 in Q1 2026 and $ 4,777,000,000 in Q2 2025, producing a calculated operating margin of about 60.2% in Q2 2026 versus about 58.4% in Q1 2026 and about 58.7% in Q2 2025.
Diluted EPS increased to $ 4.97 in Q2 2026 from $ 4.35 in Q1 2026 and $ 4.07 in Q2 2025, helped by declining weighted average diluted shares outstanding (down to 883,000,000 in Q2 2026 from 909,000,000 in Q2 2025) and material share repurchases ($ 4,035,000,000 repurchased in Q1 2026). Cash and cash equivalents moved through the year to $ 11,291,000,000 as of 2026-06-30 while long-term debt reported $ 22,184,000,000 at that same date; total stockholders’ equity fell to $ 5,611,000,000 as of 2026-06-30 and total assets rose to $ 57,691,000,000.
How this note was made
every stage ran before the note was writtenAnalyst desk
Mercer, Oakes, Nash, Ellis, Yates, Talbot and Archer. The desk: named AI agents, not people. Each reads one slice of the evidence and nothing else (no outside knowledge, no browsing), so every finding traces to a source you can open.
Reads the XBRL figures companies file with the SEC (revenue, margins, income, debt and share count, quarter by quarter) and reports which way the trend is running.
Mastercard reported revenues of $9,277,000,000 for fiscal Q2 2026 (2026-04-01 to 2026-06-30, 3mo), up from $8,398,000,000 in fiscal Q1 2026 (2026-01-01 to 2026-03-31, 3mo) and up from $8,133,000,000 in the comparable fiscal Q2 2025 (2025-04-01 to 2025-06-30, 3mo).
XBRL companyfacts · 0001141391-26-000083Operating income was $5,587,000,000 in fiscal Q2 2026 versus $4,907,000,000 in fiscal Q1 2026 and $4,777,000,000 in fiscal Q2 2025.
XBRL companyfacts · 0001141391-26-000083Reads the filings themselves, above all the year-over-year diff of Item 1A risk factors: which risks a company added, dropped or quietly reworded since its last annual report.
Which filings the desk reads
The desk reads the annual 10-K in full: its risk factors, and how they changed since last year. Quarterly 10-Qs and event filings (8-Ks, insider Form 4s) are listed for context but not read line by line: the 10-K is where the material risk disclosures live. A brand-new company, or one we have only just begun tracking, may have no annual report on file yet; its risk analysis fills in once that lands.
The 10-K filed 11 Feb 2026 added a risk noting that governments and merchant groups in a number of countries have implemented or are seeking interchange rate reductions through legislation, regulation and litigation.
Item 1A risk-factor diff · 0001141391-26-000013 vs 0001141391-25-000011The 10-K filed 11 Feb 2026 states that during 2025 approximately 71% of the company's revenue was generated from activities outside the U.S., and that currency fluctuations affect net income with hedging in place for only a limited number of currencies.
Item 1A risk-factor diff · 0001141391-26-000013 vs 0001141391-25-000011Reads the signal panel above (momentum, volatility, drawdown, relative strength and beta) and ranks each against the whole research universe rather than judging it in isolation.
Momentum over the past 3 months is +17.0% and over the past 6 months is +14.7%, with the 6-month momentum at the 62th percentile of a 558-stock research universe.
Moneyta signal set · 2026-09-11weakened in debateThe 12-month momentum (12_1) is -2.0% and the momentum 12_1 percentile rank is the 29th percentile of 558, indicating weaker relative 12-month performance versus the universe.
Moneyta signal set · 2026-09-11Reads which funds hold the name and at what weight, plus insider Form 4 filings, to show the exposure you may already carry through index funds.
The latest reported 13F holdings for the quarter ended 31 March 2026 show total institutional holdings value of $372.95B and a quarter-over-quarter value change of -14.8%; the data carry a 45-day reporting lag.
13F holdings · 3590 filers · as of 2026-03-31Top institutional holders listed for the 31 March 2026 reporting period include BlackRock, Inc. at $33.49B, MASTERCARD FOUNDATION ASSET MANAGEMENT CORP at $32.60B, and VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC at $26.15B.
13F holdings · 3590 filers · as of 2026-03-31Reads recent headlines that are genuinely about this company, ignoring rating chatter and market-wide stories. Findings argue in the debate but never move the sentiment score.
On 11 September 2026, Mastercard announced 'Wallet Pay', a global portfolio intended to boost interoperability and innovation among digital wallets, and this launch was reported by finance.yahoo.com.
News · finance.yahoo.com · 2026-09-11Independent coverage of the Wallet Pay launch also appeared on leaprate.com on 11 September 2026, describing the portfolio as aimed at scaling digital wallets worldwide and referencing global digital wallet usage figures.
News · leaprate.com · 2026-09-11Reads parsed Forms 3/4/5: who bought or sold, at what size, and whether a 10b5-1 plan was involved. Flags clustered open-market officer buying; treats plan sales as routine and never counts a fund or 10%-holder as an officer.
Miebach Michael (President & CEO) reported an open-market disposition of $8.8M for 15,372 shares on 2026-08-05, per the Form 4 filing.
Form 4 · Miebach Michael (President & CEO) · $8.8M sold · 2026-08-05SACHIN J. MEHRA (Chief Business Officer) reported multiple dispositions on 2026-08-19, including a 'code M' transaction of $2.6M (7,444 shares) and a series of sales ranging from $69k to $738k, per the filing that aggregates those trades.
Form 4 · SACHIN J. MEHRA (Chief Business Officer) · $572k sold · 2026-08-20Reads the implied-expectations math built from the company's own filings (the growth rate today's price would justify, and the multiples beside it) and argues whether the market's bar looks high or low for this business. Never turns the math into a target.
The model reports an implied free cash flow (FCF) growth rate of 0.3819 (38.19%) that today's price would justify under the stated discount and terminal assumptions.
Valuation inputs · SEC XBRL + stored EOD closeTrailing twelve‑month free cash flow (FCF) is reported as $8,390,000,000 and FCF per share is $9.5017.
Valuation inputs · SEC XBRL + stored EOD closeDebate and risk review
A bull and a bear contest the claims and the chair rules on each; the risk review stress-tests what survived.
A bull and a bear argue the analysts' claims across two rounds, then a chair rules on each one. Only what survives feeds the score. The argument is shown, not hidden, so you can judge the reasoning yourself.
Recent quarterly results show sequential and year-over-year revenue and operating income expansion alongside a modest operating margin pickup and higher diluted EPS, while weighted diluted shares have meaningfully declined — a profile consistent with growing profitability and shareholder-return activity. Institutional and ETF ownership remain large and concentrated among major holders, and recent 3- and 6-month momentum plus low market beta suggest favorable market interest and lower sensitivity to broad market swings. The bear case leans on higher reported long-term debt, declining book equity, regulatory and litigation risk disclosures, insider dispositions, and valuation flags; several of those negatives are mitigated in the record by strong cash balances, substantial share repurchases, explicit 10b5-1 plans for insider trades, and a low reported EV/EBITDA that, together with large trailing FCF, indicate different lenses on leverage and market pricing. While the 10-K adds standard industry and regulatory risks and a discounted price/FCF signal implies demanding FCF-based price assumptions, the core operating and cash-flow metrics in the provided evidence jointly support a favorable read on the company’s recent operating and capital deployment profile.
Chair's verdict, claim by claim
Fragility · computed, not argued
balanced0.37
42 surviving claims rest on 17 distinct sources; the heaviest analyst carries 24% of them, and 98% of what the desk raised survived the debate.
The evidence base is moderately diversified across sources but not broad: 42 surviving claims draw on 17 distinct sources, so individual sources carry meaningful weight. The largest analyst or contributor accounting for 24% of surviving claims and a 98% survive-rate from desk debate both suggest the current read has relatively low internal challenge and therefore should be treated as somewhat fragile — useful for informational context but sensitive to new or revised filings or market moves.
Peer context · computed, not argued
12-1 momentum ranks 5th of 7 in Credit Services (as of 2026-09-11).
90-day volatility ranks 6th of 7 in Credit Services (as of 2026-09-11).
dividend yield ranks 6th of 7 in Credit Services (as of 2026-09-11).
Disconfirming evidence · base rates · falsifiers
Context
Outside consensus, and where this name already sits in your own portfolio.
Third-party consensus shown for context. It never enters Moneyta sentiment. When the two diverge, the debate above is where the why lives.
What this was built from
Every figure on this page traces to one of these. The desk reads only what is listed here (no outside knowledge, no browsing), and each card shows who read it and what it contributed to the score.
10 filings· 2 cited
SEC XBRL filings
Quarterly figures as filed with the SEC, read straight from EDGAR's structured data, not retyped or estimated.
Read by Mercer+0.4 to the score
12 documents· 2 cited
SEC filing documents
The filings themselves, including the year-over-year comparison of Item 1A risk factors.
Read by Oakes−0.8 to the score
1 signal set
Moneyta signal set
Computed from our own end-of-day price history and ranked against the whole research universe. No AI involved.
Read by Nash−0.5 to the score
3 holdings records· 1 cited
Fund holdings
Which funds hold this name and at what weight, plus insider Form 4 filings.
Read by Ellis+0.3 to the score
5 headlines· 2 cited
News coverage
Recent headlines about this company, rating chatter excluded and nothing published after the report date.
Read by Yatesnothing survived
6 filings· 2 cited
Insider filings
Parsed Forms 3/4/5 from EDGAR: named insiders, share counts, prices, and 10b5-1 plan state, with stated and inferred flags kept apart.
Read by Talbot−1.6 to the score
1 computation
Valuation inputs
TTM cash-flow figures from the company's own XBRL filings, priced with the stored closing price. Implied growth and multiples only; no fair-value dollar figure reaches the desk, by design.
Read by Archercontext only
1 record· 0 cited
Company profile
Sector, industry and company details.
1 record· 0 cited
Analyst consensus
Third-party consensus, shown for context only; it never enters Moneyta sentiment.
Read means we pulled and handed it to an analyst; cited means a claim on this page points at it. Reading twelve quarters to state one trend is normal; the gap is shown rather than hidden.
Written by AI, checked against sources
The analysts, the bull–bear debate and the editor's note are AI agents reading only the evidence listed on this page. They can misread a filing or a headline, which is why every claim cites a source you can open and check yourself. The sentiment score is arithmetic over the claims that survived the debate, not a language model's opinion.
Educational analysis of published data. Moneyta does not give investment advice or make recommendations. Past patterns do not indicate future results.
The full terminal on MA Gold
Who holds it, who's buying, what the Street thinks: live behind the lock, updated as filings land.
Institutional holders
Net institutional flow, Q/Q
Largest holder position
Insider buys, 90 days
Clustered insider value
Street target range
The real figures are for members. Educational analysis, not advice.
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Educational analysis of published data. Moneyta does not give investment advice or make recommendations.