MOS
The Mosaic CompanyEvidence as of 2026-09-03Overview · The Mosaic Company
The Mosaic Company, through its subsidiaries, produces and markets concentrated phosphate and potash crop nutrients in North America and internationally. The company operates through three segments: Phosphates, Potash, and Mosaic Fertilizantes. It owns and operates mines, which produce concentrated phosphate crop nutrients, such as diammonium phosphate, monoammonium phosphate, and ammoniated phosphate products; and p…
Management team
- Mr. Luciano Siani Pires · Executive VP & CFOFind on LinkedIn
- Mr. Clint C. Freeland · Senior AdviserFind on LinkedIn
- Ms. Corrine D. Ricard · Senior Vice President of Digital StrategyFind on LinkedIn
- Ms. Karen A. Swager · Executive Vice President of OperationsFind on LinkedIn
Start your 7-day free trial to see the full management team.
Links open LinkedIn searches, not verified profiles. Team data from our market-data vendor's company profile.
Moneyta sentiment
Where the published evidence leans after the desk debated it — not a rating or a recommendation.
−0.2 on a −2 to +2 scale.
What builds the score
Solid bars are analyst rubric scores; faded bars are computed directly from data. Claims dropped in debate count for nothing; weakened claims count at half weight.
Editor's note
Written after the debate settled — the rest of the page is the evidence behind it.
The evidence balance is Mixed ( -0.2 of a possible +2; confidence high). Revenue climbed from $ 2,620,900,000 in fiscal quarter ended 2025-05-02 (Q1 2025) to $ 3,452,100,000 in fiscal quarter ended 2025-10-31 (Q3 2025), then fell to $ 2,998,000,000 in fiscal quarter ended 2026-05-08 (Q1 2026) and $ 2,824,100,000 in fiscal quarter ended 2026-07-31 (Q2 2026). Gross profit declined from $ 552,300,000 in fiscal quarter ended 2025-10-31 (Q3 2025) to $ 245,685,000 in fiscal quarter ended 2026-05-08 (Q1 2026) and $ 214,700,000 in fiscal quarter ended 2026-07-31 (Q2 2026), while operating income swung from a $ 339,800,000 profit in fiscal quarter ended 2025-10-31 (Q3 2025) to a $ -372,900,000 loss in fiscal quarter ended 2026-05-08 (Q1 2026) and a $ -35,500,000 loss in fiscal quarter ended 2026-07-31 (Q2 2026).
Market signals are mixed: price on 2026-09-02 is above the 50-day and 200-day SMAs (+14.3% and +6.3%), but 12-month-minus-1-month momentum is weak at -33.5% (7th percentile) and recent volatility is elevated (30-day annualized vol +40.6%, 90-day +43.5%). Balance-sheet and liquidity items noted in filings and news include redemption and refinancing activity aggregating roughly $ 537,000,000 of retirements and about $ 2.0 billion of new senior notes raised in August 2026, with trailing free cash flow negative $ 1,276,200,000 and FCF per share negative $ 4.0145.
How this note was made
every stage ran before the note was writtenAnalyst desk
Mercer, Oakes, Nash, Ellis, Yates, Talbot and Archer. The desk: named AI agents, not people. Each reads one slice of the evidence and nothing else — no outside knowledge, no browsing — so every finding traces to a source you can open.
Reads the XBRL figures companies file with the SEC — revenue, margins, income, debt and share count, quarter by quarter — and reports which way the trend is running.
Revenue rose from $2,620,900,000 in fiscal Q1 2025 (2025-01-01 to 2025-03-31, 3mo) to $3,452,100,000 in fiscal Q3 2025 (2025-07-01 to 2025-09-30, 3mo), then declined to $2,998,000,000 in fiscal Q1 2026 (2026-01-01 to 2026-03-31, 3mo) and $2,824,100,000 in fiscal Q2 2026 (2026-04-01 to 2026-06-30, 3mo).
XBRL companyfacts · 0001628280-25-049494Gross profit decreased from $552,300,000 in fiscal Q3 2025 (2025-07-01 to 2025-09-30, 3mo) to $245,685,000 in fiscal Q1 2026 (2026-01-01 to 2026-03-31, 3mo) and $214,700,000 in fiscal Q2 2026 (2026-04-01 to 2026-06-30, 3mo).
XBRL companyfacts · 0001285785-26-000112Reads the filings themselves, above all the year-over-year diff of Item 1A risk factors: which risks a company added, dropped or quietly reworded since its last annual report.
Which filings the desk reads
The desk reads the annual 10-K in full — its risk factors, and how they changed since last year. Quarterly 10-Qs and event filings (8-Ks, insider Form 4s) are listed for context but not read line by line: the 10-K is where the material risk disclosures live. A brand-new company, or one we have only just begun tracking, may have no annual report on file yet — its risk analysis fills in once that lands.
On August 17, 2026, The Mosaic Company filed an 8-K (the 8-K filed 17 August 2026) that attached a press release dated August 17, 2026 announcing the expiration and results of its previously announced cash tender offers for certain of its debt securities; the press release is included as Exhibit 99.1 to that 8-K.
8-K filed 2026-08-17An 8-K was filed on August 14, 2026 under the 8-K filed 14 August 2026 and is present in the supplied evidence set.
8-K filed 2026-08-14Reads the signal panel above — momentum, volatility, drawdown, relative strength and beta — and ranks each against the whole research universe rather than judging it in isolation.
The 12-month-minus-1-month momentum is -33.5% (momentum_12_1) and ranks in the 7th percentile of the 547-stock research universe, indicating a very weak 12_1 momentum reading relative to peers on 2026-09-02.
Moneyta signal set · 2026-09-02weakened in debateThree-month momentum is +10.6% (momentum_3m) while six-month momentum is +0.9% (momentum_6m); the six-month momentum ranks in the 39th percentile of the 547-stock universe on 2026-09-02.
Moneyta signal set · 2026-09-02weakened in debateReads which funds hold the name and at what weight, plus insider Form 4 filings, to show the exposure you may already carry through index funds.
As of 2026-09-02, the ETF iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV) held MOS at 0.01% weight of the fund.
ETF constituents · market dataA Form 4 insider filing for MOS was filed on 2026-08-21 (the 4 filed 21 August 2026); the parsed record shows parse_status "skipped" and no primary_doc_url was provided in the evidence.
Form 4 × 1 (90d window not enforced here)Reads recent headlines that are genuinely about this company, ignoring rating chatter and market-wide stories. Findings argue in the debate but never move the sentiment score.
On 2 September 2026 gurufocus.com published a headline noting The Mosaic Co (MOS) 'Shares Surge 4.0%' alongside commentary tied to a GF Score of 66.
News · gurufocus.com · 2026-09-02Also on 2 September 2026 gurufocus.com published a separate piece titled 'A Closer Look Behind a 66 GF Score' focused specifically on MOS.
News · gurufocus.com · 2026-09-02Reads parsed Forms 3/4/5 — who bought or sold, at what size, and whether a 10b5-1 plan was involved. Flags clustered open-market officer buying; treats plan sales as routine and never counts a fund or 10%-holder as an officer.
Walter F. Precourt III (SVP - Chief Admin Officer) sold 23,000 shares for a total value of "$509k" on 2026-08-19.
Form 4 · Precourt Walter F. III (SVP - Chief Admin Officer) · $509k sold · 2026-08-19The parsed insider-activity summary shows total insider selling of "$509k" and insider buying of "$0" in the 180-day window.
Form 4 · Precourt Walter F. III (SVP - Chief Admin Officer) · $509k sold · 2026-08-19Reads the implied-expectations math built from the company's own filings (the growth rate today's price would justify, and the multiples beside it) and argues whether the market's bar looks high or low for this business. Never turns the math into a target.
The closing price used is $25.78 on 2026-09-02.
Valuation inputs · SEC XBRL + stored EOD closeFree cash flow on a trailing twelve-month basis (FCF ttm) is negative $1,276,200,000.
Valuation inputs · SEC XBRL + stored EOD closeDebate and risk review
A bull and a bear contest the claims and the chair rules on each; the risk review stress-tests what survived.
A bull and a bear argue the analysts' claims across two rounds, then a chair rules on each one. Only what survives feeds the score — the argument is shown, not hidden, so you can judge the reasoning yourself.
Several pieces of the supplied evidence collectively support a constructive reading. Reported total assets have increased across the sampled dates (fundamentals-5) and shares outstanding remained roughly stable (fundamentals-4), which are direct balance-sheet facts from filings and are strong evidence of capital stability. Trailing EBITDA is sizable ($1.323B) and EV/EBITDA is moderate at 8.87 (valuation-4), and recent issuer actions documented in filings and news show substantial debt refinancings and redemptions (news-2, news-3, news-4, filings-0/2) — these items are primary-sourced and materially strengthen the case that leverage and capital structure have been actively managed. Market data showing price above SMA50/200 and positive 3-month momentum (market-2, market-1), plus a relatively high dividend yield (market-5) and inclusion in a large ETF (ownership-0), provide corroborating market-structure signals that support a favorable read. The bear case leans on recent quarterly profit swings and negative FCF (fundamentals-1, fundamentals-2, fundamentals-3, valuation-1, valuation-2); those are also primary figures but reflect short-window operational volatility — the refinancing and reported EBITDA provide countervailing evidence of balance-sheet remediation and operating-scale that weaken the bear’s strongest points.
Chair's verdict, claim by claim
Fragility · computed, not argued
diversified0.29
36 surviving claims rest on 20 distinct sources; the heaviest analyst carries 19% of them, and 97% of what the desk raised survived the debate.
The evidence set is fairly broad but not deeply diverse: 36 surviving claims draw on 20 distinct sources, so multiple claims share the same documents. One analyst accounts for a meaningful share of claims (about one-fifth), and the very high survival rate from the desk debate suggests the read passed internal scrutiny but may reflect limited critical challenge; together this implies the read is informative yet somewhat fragile to a few key sources or analyst perspectives.
Peer context · computed, not argued
12-1 momentum ranks 2nd of 2 in Agricultural Inputs (as of 2026-09-02).
90-day volatility ranks 1st of 2 in Agricultural Inputs (as of 2026-09-02).
dividend yield ranks 1st of 2 in Agricultural Inputs (as of 2026-09-02).
Disconfirming evidence · base rates · falsifiers
Context
Outside consensus, and where this name already sits in your own portfolio.
Third-party consensus shown for context. It never enters Moneyta sentiment — when the two diverge, the debate above is where the why lives.
What this was built from
Every figure on this page traces to one of these. The desk reads only what is listed here — no outside knowledge, no browsing — and each card shows who read it and what it contributed to the score.
14 filings· 2 cited
SEC XBRL filings
Quarterly figures as filed with the SEC, read straight from EDGAR's structured data — not retyped or estimated.
Read by Mercer−0.8 to the score
6 documents· 3 cited
SEC filing documents
The filings themselves, including the year-over-year comparison of Item 1A risk factors.
Read by Oakes+0.0 to the score
1 signal set
Moneyta signal set
Computed from our own end-of-day price history and ranked against the whole research universe. No AI involved.
Read by Nash−0.3 to the score
2 holdings records
Fund holdings
Which funds hold this name and at what weight, plus insider Form 4 filings.
Read by Ellis+0.5 to the score
8 headlines· 2 cited
News coverage
Recent headlines about this company, rating chatter excluded and nothing published after the report date.
Read by Yatesnothing survived
1 filing
Insider filings
Parsed Forms 3/4/5 from EDGAR: named insiders, share counts, prices, and 10b5-1 plan state — stated and inferred flags kept apart.
Read by Talbot−0.5 to the score
1 computation
Valuation inputs
TTM cash-flow figures from the company's own XBRL filings, priced with the stored closing price. Implied growth and multiples only; no fair-value dollar figure reaches the desk, by design.
Read by Archercontext only
1 record· 0 cited
Company profile
Sector, industry and company details.
1 record· 0 cited
Analyst consensus
Third-party consensus, shown for context only — it never enters Moneyta sentiment.
Read means we pulled and handed it to an analyst; cited means a claim on this page points at it. Reading twelve quarters to state one trend is normal — the gap is shown rather than hidden.
Written by AI, checked against sources
The analysts, the bull–bear debate and the editor's note are AI agents reading only the evidence listed on this page. They can misread a filing or a headline, which is why every claim cites a source you can open and check yourself. The sentiment score is arithmetic over the claims that survived the debate, not a language model's opinion.
Educational analysis of published data. Moneyta does not give investment advice or make recommendations. Past patterns do not indicate future results.
Get this for the tickers you actually hold
Plus the one thing no sample can show: how each name correlates with your portfolio, and what hides inside your funds.
The full terminal on MOS Gold
Who holds it, who's buying, what the Street thinks: live behind the lock, updated as filings land.
Institutional holders
Net institutional flow, Q/Q
Largest holder position
Insider buys, 90 days
Clustered insider value
Street target range
The real figures are for members. Educational analysis, not advice.
Educational analysis of published data. Moneyta does not give investment advice or make recommendations.