MPC
Marathon Petroleum CorpEvidence as of 2026-09-03Overview · Marathon Petroleum Corp
Marathon Petroleum Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an integrated downstream energy company primarily in the United States. It operates in two segments, Refining & Marketing, and Midstream. The Refining & Marketing segment refines crude oil and other feedstocks at its refineries in the Gulf Coast, Mid-Continent, and West Coast regions of the United States; and purchases refined products and et…
Management team
- Mr. Timothy J. Aydt · Executive Vice President of RefiningFind on LinkedIn
- Mr. Rick D. Hessling · Chief Commercial OfficerFind on LinkedIn
- Ms. Molly R. Benson · Chief Legal Officer & Corporate SecretaryFind on LinkedIn
- Mr. John J. Quaid · Executive VP & CFOFind on LinkedIn
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Links open LinkedIn searches, not verified profiles. Team data from our market-data vendor's company profile.
Moneyta sentiment
Where the published evidence leans after the desk debated it — not a rating or a recommendation.
+0.1 on a −2 to +2 scale.
What builds the score
Solid bars are analyst rubric scores; faded bars are computed directly from data. Claims dropped in debate count for nothing; weakened claims count at half weight.
Editor's note
Written after the debate settled — the rest of the page is the evidence behind it.
The desk’s surviving claims leave a mixed read (evidence balance: Mixed, + 0.1 of a possible + 2; confidence high). Marathon Petroleum reported revenue from contracts with customers of $ 51,994,000,000 for FISCAL Q2 2026 (period 2026-04-01 to 2026-06-30) and operating income of $ 7,322,000,000 with net income of $ 5,138,000,000 for the same quarter. Shares outstanding were reported as 280,824,763 as of 2026-07-30, while a historical weighted average diluted share count of 307,213,828 is recorded for FISCAL Q1 2025.
Market metrics show large recent strength and elevated volatility: 6‑month momentum is + 76.0% (96th percentile) and 12‑month momentum is + 92.6% (92nd percentile), price sits + 22.3% above the 50‑day simple moving average and + 62.0% above the 200‑day simple moving average with a golden cross present (cross age 303 days), and 30‑day annualized vol is + 37.2% (90‑day + 35.9%). The three‑year maximum drawdown is − 44.7% (100th percentile) and current drawdown from the three‑year high is + 0.0%. Market‑sensitivity metrics show beta vs SPY = − 0.14 and correlation vs SPY = − 0.05, while 6‑ and 12‑month relative strength vs SPY are + 64.0% and + 97.3% respectively.
How this note was made
every stage ran before the note was writtenAnalyst desk
Mercer, Oakes, Nash, Ellis, Yates, Talbot and Archer. The desk: named AI agents, not people. Each reads one slice of the evidence and nothing else — no outside knowledge, no browsing — so every finding traces to a source you can open.
Reads the XBRL figures companies file with the SEC — revenue, margins, income, debt and share count, quarter by quarter — and reports which way the trend is running.
Revenue from contracts with customers was $51,994,000,000 for fiscal Q2 2026, period 2026-04-01 to 2026-06-30 (3mo).
XBRL companyfacts · 0001510295-26-000061Net income (NetIncomeLoss) was $5,138,000,000 for fiscal Q2 2026, period 2026-04-01 to 2026-06-30 (3mo).
XBRL companyfacts · 0001510295-26-000061Reads the filings themselves, above all the year-over-year diff of Item 1A risk factors: which risks a company added, dropped or quietly reworded since its last annual report.
Which filings the desk reads
The desk reads the annual 10-K in full — its risk factors, and how they changed since last year. Quarterly 10-Qs and event filings (8-Ks, insider Form 4s) are listed for context but not read line by line: the 10-K is where the material risk disclosures live. A brand-new company, or one we have only just begun tracking, may have no annual report on file yet — its risk analysis fills in once that lands.
A Form 4 disclosure for Marathon Petroleum Corp was filed on 1 September 2026 (the 4 filed 1 September 2026).
4 filed 2026-09-01A Form 4 disclosure for Marathon Petroleum Corp was filed on 31 August 2026 (the 4 filed 31 August 2026).
4 filed 2026-08-31Reads the signal panel above — momentum, volatility, drawdown, relative strength and beta — and ranks each against the whole research universe rather than judging it in isolation.
As of 2026-09-02, the 6-month momentum is +76.0% and ranks in the 96th percentile of the 547-stock research universe.
Moneyta signal set · 2026-09-02weakened in debateAs of 2026-09-02, the 12-month (12_1) momentum is +92.6% and ranks in the 92th percentile of the 547-stock research universe.
Moneyta signal set · 2026-09-02weakened in debateReads which funds hold the name and at what weight, plus insider Form 4 filings, to show the exposure you may already carry through index funds.
As of 2026-09-02T13:45:47.228469+00:00, the security has a 0.12% weight in the IVV ETF.
ETF constituents · market dataThere are five Form 4 filings listed with filed dates of 2026-08-14, 2026-08-17, 2026-08-19, 2026-08-31, and 2026-09-01.
Form 4 × 5 (90d window not enforced here)Reads recent headlines that are genuinely about this company, ignoring rating chatter and market-wide stories. Findings argue in the debate but never move the sentiment score.
Two distinct outlets ran the same long‑term performance piece titled 'If You Invested $1000 in Marathon Petroleum a Decade Ago, This is How Much It'd Be Worth Now' on 2 September 2026, framing coverage around Marathon Petroleum's historical returns.
News · finance.yahoo.com · 2026-09-02Coverage on 2 September 2026 linked Marathon Petroleum's share move to sector momentum after peers' earnings, with a headline saying the stock was up 7.9% following refining peers' earnings strength and 'analyst optimism'.
News · finance.yahoo.com · 2026-09-02Reads parsed Forms 3/4/5 — who bought or sold, at what size, and whether a 10b5-1 plan was involved. Flags clustered open-market officer buying; treats plan sales as routine and never counts a fund or 10%-holder as an officer.
Molly R Benson (Chief Legal Ofc & Corp Sec) executed sales on 17 August 2026 comprising 7,196 shares for $2.6M under a stated 10b5-1 plan.
Form 4 · Benson Molly R (Chief Legal Ofc & Corp Sec) · $343k code M · 2026-08-17Molly R Benson (Chief Legal Ofc & Corp Sec) executed sales on 17 August 2026 comprising 5,000 shares for $1.8M under a stated 10b5-1 plan.
Form 4 · Benson Molly R (Chief Legal Ofc & Corp Sec) · $343k code M · 2026-08-17Reads the implied-expectations math built from the company's own filings (the growth rate today's price would justify, and the multiples beside it) and argues whether the market's bar looks high or low for this business. Never turns the math into a target.
The model calculates an implied free cash flow (FCF) growth rate of 17.25% that today's price would justify under the stated discount and terminal assumptions.
Valuation inputs · SEC XBRL + stored EOD closeTrailing twelve‑month free cash flow (FCF) is $4,028,000,000 and FCF per share is $13.8897, yielding a price-to-FCF multiple of 27.86 at the reported price of $387.00.
Valuation inputs · SEC XBRL + stored EOD closeDebate and risk review
A bull and a bear contest the claims and the chair rules on each; the risk review stress-tests what survived.
A bull and a bear argue the analysts' claims across two rounds, then a chair rules on each one. Only what survives feeds the score — the argument is shown, not hidden, so you can judge the reasoning yourself.
The positive operating and profitability figures (high revenue, operating income, and net income in Q2 2026) together with a marked reduction in diluted shares outstanding support a per‑share earnings expansion narrative. Market signals show strong multi‑month momentum (6‑ and 12‑month ranks in the 90s) and a price profile well above moving averages with a recent golden cross, which market‑structure outlets and some sell‑side coverage tie to sector strength. Valuation multiples present mixed but constructive data points: a low EV/EBITDA (6.16) and a mid‑teens trailing P/E coexist with a higher price/FCF multiple, while the balance sheet displays more cash than long‑term debt. In rebuttal of bearish emphasis on insider selling and headline volatility, several insider transactions were executed under 10b5‑1 plans or are thinly documented in filings, and the three‑year drawdown metric is offset by the reported current drawdown of 0% (the stock at a multi‑year high), which helps explain analyst interest and upgrade activity.
Chair's verdict, claim by claim
Fragility · computed, not argued
diversified0.28
37 surviving claims rest on 21 distinct sources; the heaviest analyst carries 19% of them, and 97% of what the desk raised survived the debate.
The read is moderately robust: 37 surviving claims draw on a fairly broad set of sources, and the high debate survival rate means few claims were overturned in review. However, a single analyst accounts for a meaningful share of claims and several key items lean on the same filings/news dates, so some conclusions carry extra dependence risk and deserve lighter weighting when used for decisions.
Disconfirming evidence · base rates · falsifiers
Context
Outside consensus, and where this name already sits in your own portfolio.
Third-party consensus shown for context. It never enters Moneyta sentiment — when the two diverge, the debate above is where the why lives.
What this was built from
Every figure on this page traces to one of these. The desk reads only what is listed here — no outside knowledge, no browsing — and each card shows who read it and what it contributed to the score.
13 filings· 1 cited
SEC XBRL filings
Quarterly figures as filed with the SEC, read straight from EDGAR's structured data — not retyped or estimated.
Read by Mercer+1.4 to the score
5 documents· 2 cited
SEC filing documents
The filings themselves, including the year-over-year comparison of Item 1A risk factors.
Read by Oakes+0.0 to the score
1 signal set
Moneyta signal set
Computed from our own end-of-day price history and ranked against the whole research universe. No AI involved.
Read by Nash−0.2 to the score
2 holdings records
Fund holdings
Which funds hold this name and at what weight, plus insider Form 4 filings.
Read by Ellis+0.0 to the score
6 headlines· 2 cited
News coverage
Recent headlines about this company, rating chatter excluded and nothing published after the report date.
Read by Yatesnothing survived
5 filings· 1 cited
Insider filings
Parsed Forms 3/4/5 from EDGAR: named insiders, share counts, prices, and 10b5-1 plan state — stated and inferred flags kept apart.
Read by Talbot−0.7 to the score
1 computation
Valuation inputs
TTM cash-flow figures from the company's own XBRL filings, priced with the stored closing price. Implied growth and multiples only; no fair-value dollar figure reaches the desk, by design.
Read by Archercontext only
1 record· 0 cited
Company profile
Sector, industry and company details.
1 record· 0 cited
Analyst consensus
Third-party consensus, shown for context only — it never enters Moneyta sentiment.
Read means we pulled and handed it to an analyst; cited means a claim on this page points at it. Reading twelve quarters to state one trend is normal — the gap is shown rather than hidden.
Written by AI, checked against sources
The analysts, the bull–bear debate and the editor's note are AI agents reading only the evidence listed on this page. They can misread a filing or a headline, which is why every claim cites a source you can open and check yourself. The sentiment score is arithmetic over the claims that survived the debate, not a language model's opinion.
Educational analysis of published data. Moneyta does not give investment advice or make recommendations. Past patterns do not indicate future results.
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The full terminal on MPC Gold
Who holds it, who's buying, what the Street thinks: live behind the lock, updated as filings land.
Institutional holders
Net institutional flow, Q/Q
Largest holder position
Insider buys, 90 days
Clustered insider value
Street target range
The real figures are for members. Educational analysis, not advice.
Educational analysis of published data. Moneyta does not give investment advice or make recommendations.