MRNA
Moderna, Inc.Evidence as of 2026-10-09The desk's Snapshot
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Overview · Moderna, Inc.
Moderna, Inc., a biotechnology company, discovers, develops, and commercializes messenger RNA therapeutics and vaccines for the treatment of infectious diseases, immuno-oncology, rare diseases, autoimmune, and cardiovascular diseases in the United States, Europe, and internationally. Its respiratory vaccines include COVID-19, flu, respiratory syncytial virus, Endemic HCoV, and hMPV+PIV3 vaccines; latent vaccines comp…
Management team
- Dr. Melanie Ivarsson M.B.A., Ph.D. · Chief Development OfficerFind on LinkedIn
- Ms. Tracey Franklin · Chief Human Resources OfficerFind on LinkedIn
- Mr. Brad Miller · Chief Information OfficerFind on LinkedIn
- Dr. Jerh Collins Ph.D. · Chief Technical Operations & Quality OfficerFind on LinkedIn
Start free to see the full management team.
Links open LinkedIn searches, not verified profiles. Team data from our market-data vendor's company profile.
Moneyta sentiment
Where the published evidence leans after the desk debated it, not a rating or a recommendation.
−0.8 on a −2 to +2 scale.
What builds the score
Solid bars are analyst rubric scores; faded bars are computed directly from data. Claims dropped in debate count for nothing; weakened claims count at half weight.
Editor's note
Written after the debate settled. The rest of the page is the evidence behind it.
The evidence balance is cautious ( -0.8 of a possible +2; was -0.8 before debate) with high confidence. Revenue trended down across the last three reported quarters: $ 1,013,000,000 in Q3 2025 (fiscal quarter ended 2025-10-31), $ 389,000,000 in Q1 2026 (fiscal quarter ended 2026-04-24) and $ 145,000,000 in Q2 2026 (fiscal quarter ended 2026-07-24). Operating losses and net losses widened in early 2026 and then improved somewhat: operating loss of -$ 1,388,000,000 in Q1 2026 and -$ 815,000,000 in Q2 2026 (versus -$ 260,000,000 in Q3 2025); net loss was -$ 1,343,000,000 in Q1 2026 and -$ 782,000,000 in Q2 2026 (versus -$ 200,000,000 in Q3 2025).
The balance sheet and cash-flow picture show depletion of liquidity and persistent cash burn: cash and cash equivalents declined from $ 2,595,000,000 as of 2025-12-31 to $ 1,908,000,000 as of 2026-03-31 and $ 1,723,000,000 as of 2026-06-30, TTM free cash flow is -$ 4,369,000,000 and net cash used in operations (TTM) is -$ 3,881,000,000, while market capitalization at the price date is $ 78,649,470,133.
How this note was made
every stage ran before the note was writtenAnalyst desk
Mercer, Oakes, Nash, Ellis, Yates, Talbot and Archer. The desk: named AI agents, not people. Each reads one slice of the evidence and nothing else (no outside knowledge, no browsing), so every finding traces to a source you can open.
Reads the XBRL figures companies file with the SEC (revenue, margins, income, debt and share count, quarter by quarter) and reports which way the trend is running.
Revenue fell across the last three reported quarters: $1,013,000,000 in fiscal Q3 2025 (2025-07-01 to 2025-09-30), $389,000,000 in fiscal Q1 2026 (2026-01-01 to 2026-03-31), and $145,000,000 in fiscal Q2 2026 (2026-04-01 to 2026-06-30).
XBRL companyfacts · 0001682852-25-000075Net loss (three-month periods) widened in early 2026 and then improved somewhat: net loss of -$1,343,000,000 in fiscal Q1 2026 (2026-01-01 to 2026-03-31) and -$782,000,000 in fiscal Q2 2026 (2026-04-01 to 2026-06-30); prior quarter reported net loss -$200,000,000 in fiscal Q3 2025 (2025-07-01 to 2025-09-30).
XBRL companyfacts · 0001682852-26-000060Reads the filings themselves, above all the year-over-year diff of Item 1A risk factors: which risks a company added, dropped or quietly reworded since its last annual report.
Which filings the desk reads
The desk reads the annual 10-K in full: its risk factors, and how they changed since last year. Quarterly 10-Qs and event filings (8-Ks, insider Form 4s) are listed for context but not read line by line: the 10-K is where the material risk disclosures live. A brand-new company, or one we have only just begun tracking, may have no annual report on file yet; its risk analysis fills in once that lands.
The company added a risk stating that evolving regulatory requirements, FDA policy updates, post-marketing safety monitoring and changing evidentiary expectations have impacted and may continue to impact its ability to successfully commercialize approved vaccines and future products.
Item 1A risk-factor diff · 0001682852-26-000033 vs 0001682852-25-000022The company added a risk that future vaccination rates may be lower than expected, that demand for COVID vaccines could continue to decline, and that the company has experienced challenges in the RSV market that may affect its sales and market share.
Item 1A risk-factor diff · 0001682852-26-000033 vs 0001682852-25-000022Reads the signal panel above (momentum, volatility, drawdown, relative strength and beta) and ranks each against the whole research universe rather than judging it in isolation.
Momentum metrics are extreme: 6-month momentum is +284.2% (ranked 100th percentile of 881) and the 12_1 momentum is +446.2% (ranked 100th percentile of 881) as of 2026-10-08.
Moneyta signal set · 2026-10-08weakened in debatePrice is well above moving averages: price vs SMA50 is +46.0% and price vs SMA200 is +174.8% as of 2026-10-08, and the 'golden_cross' flag is true.
Moneyta signal set · 2026-10-08Reads which funds hold the name and at what weight, plus insider Form 4 filings, to show the exposure you may already carry through index funds.
Institutional investors reported aggregate holdings valued at $24.74B as of 2026-06-30 (13F data carry a reporting lag).
13F holdings · 801 filers · as of 2026-06-30Top institutional holders reported in the 13F data as of 2026-06-30 include FMR LLC $3.63B, BlackRock, Inc. $2.14B, VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC $1.63B, Capital World Investors $1.56B, and BAILLIE GIFFORD & CO $1.28B.
13F holdings · 801 filers · as of 2026-06-30Reads recent headlines that are genuinely about this company, ignoring rating chatter and market-wide stories. Findings argue in the debate but never move the sentiment score.
Multiple outlets report Moderna's imminent inclusion in the Nasdaq-100 index, noting the listing date of 2026/10/09 and that index fund flows can be involved with such entries.
News · stockstotrade.com · 2026-10-07Coverage notes Moderna's Nasdaq-100 entry follows a 566% stock surge and cites stronger cancer therapy prospects as part of the context for renewed demand.
News · finance.yahoo.com · 2026-10-08Reads parsed Forms 3/4/5: who bought or sold, at what size, and whether a 10b5-1 plan was involved. Flags clustered open-market officer buying; treats plan sales as routine and never counts a fund or 10%-holder as an officer.
Stephen Hoge (President) reported selling 40,281 shares for "$5.9M" on 15 September 2026 under a stated 10b5-1 plan.
Form 4 · Hoge Stephen (President) · $933k code M · 2026-09-15Stephen Hoge (President) reported selling 40,294 shares for "$5.8M" on 14 September 2026 under a stated 10b5-1 plan.
Form 4 · Hoge Stephen (President) · $933k code M · 2026-09-15Reads the implied-expectations math built from the company's own filings (the growth rate today's price would justify, and the multiples beside it) and argues whether the market's bar looks high or low for this business. Never turns the math into a target.
Net cash provided by (used in) operating activities for the trailing twelve months (TTM) is negative $3,881,000,000.
Valuation inputs · SEC XBRL + stored EOD closeFree cash flow (FCF) for the trailing twelve months (TTM) is negative $4,369,000,000 and FCF per share is negative $10.9774.
Valuation inputs · SEC XBRL + stored EOD closeDebate and risk review
A bull and a bear contest the claims and the chair rules on each; the risk review stress-tests what survived.
A bull and a bear argue the analysts' claims across two rounds, then a chair rules on each one. Only what survives feeds the score. The argument is shown, not hidden, so you can judge the reasoning yourself.
The strongest factual supports for a favorable read are the extreme momentum and price-strength signals (market-0, market-1, market-4) and concentrated institutional positioning and flows (ownership-0, ownership-1, ownership-2, news-0). These items are directly observable: momentum metrics rank at the top percentile, the stock is materially above moving averages with a golden cross, and multiple large institutions report sizable holdings with a sizable quarter-over-quarter increase in reported 13F value. News items noting imminent Nasdaq-100 inclusion and renewed oncology program coverage (news-0, news-1, news-2, news-3) provide additional market-structure and narrative drivers that historically coincide with index flows and investor attention. I contest claims focused on recent operating declines, cash burn, regulatory and manufacturing risks, insider sales, high volatility, and negative TTM cash-flow/earnings (fundamentals-0..5, filings-0..5, valuation-0..3, insider-0..3, market-2, market-3) as the sole basis for a negative read because they underweight the observable market-demand signals and institutional positioning; those negative claims have clear accounting and risk disclosures but are weaker as immediate demand/price drivers compared with index inclusion and extreme momentum.
Chair's verdict, claim by claim
Fragility · computed, not argued
balanced0.31
40 surviving claims rest on 19 distinct sources; the heaviest analyst carries 15% of them, and 99% of what the desk raised survived the debate.
The read rests on a moderate number of distinct sources but many surviving claims, and a single analyst does not dominate the set — that reduces single-source analyst bias. However, nearly all raised points surviving debate (99%) and a concentrated set of filings mean the synthesis is resilient to casual challenge but still sensitive to a small number of primary documents; treat individual claims as informational observations rather than definitive conclusions.
Peer context · computed, not argued
12-1 momentum ranks 1st of 17 in Biotechnology (as of 2026-10-08).
6-month relative strength ranks 1st of 17 in Biotechnology (as of 2026-10-08).
90-day volatility ranks 1st of 17 in Biotechnology (as of 2026-10-08).
Disconfirming evidence · base rates · falsifiers
Context
Outside consensus, and where this name already sits in your own portfolio.
Third-party consensus shown for context. It never enters Moneyta sentiment. When the two diverge, the debate above is where the why lives.
What this was built from
Every figure on this page traces to one of these. The desk reads only what is listed here (no outside knowledge, no browsing), and each card shows who read it and what it contributed to the score.
10 filings· 3 cited
SEC XBRL filings
Quarterly figures as filed with the SEC, read straight from EDGAR's structured data, not retyped or estimated.
Read by Mercer−1.0 to the score
13 documents· 2 cited
SEC filing documents
The filings themselves, including the year-over-year comparison of Item 1A risk factors.
Read by Oakes−1.5 to the score
1 signal set
Moneyta signal set
Computed from our own end-of-day price history and ranked against the whole research universe. No AI involved.
Read by Nash+0.0 to the score
3 holdings records· 1 cited
Fund holdings
Which funds hold this name and at what weight, plus insider Form 4 filings.
Read by Ellis+0.6 to the score
8 headlines· 2 cited
News coverage
Recent headlines about this company, rating chatter excluded and nothing published after the report date.
Read by Yatesnothing survived
8 filings· 1 cited
Insider filings
Parsed Forms 3/4/5 from EDGAR: named insiders, share counts, prices, and 10b5-1 plan state, with stated and inferred flags kept apart.
Read by Talbot−0.8 to the score
1 computation
Valuation inputs
TTM cash-flow figures from the company's own XBRL filings, priced with the stored closing price. Implied growth and multiples only; no fair-value dollar figure reaches the desk, by design.
Read by Archercontext only
1 record· 0 cited
Company profile
Sector, industry and company details.
1 record· 0 cited
Analyst consensus
Third-party consensus, shown for context only; it never enters Moneyta sentiment.
Read means we pulled and handed it to an analyst; cited means a claim on this page points at it. Reading twelve quarters to state one trend is normal; the gap is shown rather than hidden.
Written by AI, checked against sources
The analysts, the bull–bear debate and the editor's note are AI agents reading only the evidence listed on this page. They can misread a filing or a headline, which is why every claim cites a source you can open and check yourself. The sentiment score is arithmetic over the claims that survived the debate, not a language model's opinion.
Educational analysis of published data. Moneyta does not give investment advice or make recommendations. Past patterns do not indicate future results.
The full terminal on MRNA Gold
Who holds it, who's buying, what the Street thinks: live behind the lock, updated as filings land.
Institutional holders
Net institutional flow, Q/Q
Largest holder position
Insider buys, 90 days
Clustered insider value
Street target range
The real figures are for members. Educational analysis, not advice.
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Educational analysis of published data. Moneyta does not give investment advice or make recommendations.