MRNA
Moderna, Inc.Evidence as of 2026-09-02Overview · Moderna, Inc.
Moderna, Inc., a biotechnology company, discovers, develops, and commercializes messenger RNA therapeutics and vaccines for the treatment of infectious diseases, immuno-oncology, rare diseases, autoimmune, and cardiovascular diseases in the United States, Europe, and internationally. Its respiratory vaccines include COVID-19, flu, respiratory syncytial virus, Endemic HCoV, and hMPV+PIV3 vaccines; latent vaccines comp…
Management team
- Dr. Melanie Ivarsson M.B.A., Ph.D. · Chief Development OfficerFind on LinkedIn
- Ms. Tracey Franklin · Chief Human Resources OfficerFind on LinkedIn
- Mr. Brad Miller · Chief Information OfficerFind on LinkedIn
- Dr. Jerh Collins Ph.D. · Chief Technical Operations & Quality OfficerFind on LinkedIn
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Links open LinkedIn searches, not verified profiles. Team data from our market-data vendor's company profile.
Moneyta sentiment
Where the published evidence leans after the desk debated it — not a rating or a recommendation.
−0.3 on a −2 to +2 scale.
What builds the score
Solid bars are analyst rubric scores; faded bars are computed directly from data. Claims dropped in debate count for nothing; weakened claims count at half weight.
Editor's note
Written after the debate settled — the rest of the page is the evidence behind it.
The evidence balance is Mixed ( - 0.3 of a possible + 2; confidence high). Reported revenue dropped from $ 1,862,000,000 in fiscal Q3 2025 (fiscal quarter ended 2025-10-31) to $ 108,000,000 in fiscal Q1 2026 (fiscal quarter ended 2026-04-24) and $ 145,000,000 in fiscal Q2 2026 (fiscal quarter ended 2026-07-24). Operating results are materially negative on a trailing basis: the desk records quarterly operating losses including - $ 1,383,000,000 in fiscal Q1 2026 and - $ 815,000,000 in fiscal Q2 2026, and a trailing twelve‑month operating loss of - $ 3,370,000,000.
Market action has been volatile but strong in recent months: as of 2026-09-01 price was reported at $ 154.27 with market capitalization $ 61,590,120,596, price + 92.3% above the 50‑day simple moving average and + 191.2% above the 200‑day, six‑month momentum + 209.6% (100th percentile) and very high realized volatility (30‑day annualized + 523.9%, 90‑day + 308.5%).
How this note was made
every stage ran before the note was writtenAnalyst desk
Mercer, Oakes, Nash, Ellis, Yates, Talbot and Archer. The desk: named AI agents, not people. Each reads one slice of the evidence and nothing else — no outside knowledge, no browsing — so every finding traces to a source you can open.
Reads the XBRL figures companies file with the SEC — revenue, margins, income, debt and share count, quarter by quarter — and reports which way the trend is running.
Reported revenue was $1,862,000,000 in fiscal Q3 2025 (2024-07-01 to 2024-09-30, 3mo) and fell to $108,000,000 in fiscal Q1 2026 (2025-01-01 to 2025-03-31, 3mo) and $145,000,000 in fiscal Q2 2026 (2026-04-01 to 2026-06-30, 3mo).
XBRL companyfacts · 0001682852-25-000075Operating income/(loss) was -$70,000,000 in fiscal Q3 2024 (2024-07-01 to 2024-09-30, 3mo), then moved to larger operating losses of -$1,050,000,000 in fiscal Q1 2025 (2025-01-01 to 2025-03-31, 3mo), -$907,000,000 in fiscal Q2 2025 (2025-04-01 to 2025-06-30, 3mo), -$260,000,000 in fiscal Q3 2025 (2024-07-01 to 2024-09-30, 3mo), -$1,383,000,000 in fiscal Q1 2026 (2026-01-01 to 2026-03-31, 3mo) and -$815,000,000 in fiscal Q2 2026 (2026-04-01 to 2026-06-30, 3mo).
XBRL companyfacts · 0001682852-25-000075Reads the filings themselves, above all the year-over-year diff of Item 1A risk factors: which risks a company added, dropped or quietly reworded since its last annual report.
Which filings the desk reads
The desk reads the annual 10-K in full — its risk factors, and how they changed since last year. Quarterly 10-Qs and event filings (8-Ks, insider Form 4s) are listed for context but not read line by line: the 10-K is where the material risk disclosures live. A brand-new company, or one we have only just begun tracking, may have no annual report on file yet — its risk analysis fills in once that lands.
A Current Report on Form 8-K was filed on July 31, 2026 that furnishes a press release announcing financial results for the quarter ended June 30, 2026 and identifies that press release as Exhibit 99.1.
8-K filed 2026-07-31A Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for the period ended June 30, 2026 was filed on July 31, 2026.
10-Q filed 2026-07-31Reads the signal panel above — momentum, volatility, drawdown, relative strength and beta — and ranks each against the whole research universe rather than judging it in isolation.
As of 2026-09-01, 6-month momentum is +209.6% and ranks at the 100th percentile of the 547-stock research universe.
Moneyta signal set · 2026-09-01weakened in debateAs of 2026-09-01, 12-month (12_1) momentum is +86.5% and ranks in the 92th percentile of the 547-stock research universe.
Moneyta signal set · 2026-09-01weakened in debateReads which funds hold the name and at what weight, plus insider Form 4 filings, to show the exposure you may already carry through index funds.
As of timestamps in the dataset, XLV holds 0.19% weight of Moderna in that fund.
ETF constituents · market dataOther reported ETF weights include VO at 0.17% and IVV at 0.04% in the provided snapshots.
ETF constituents · market dataReads recent headlines that are genuinely about this company, ignoring rating chatter and market-wide stories. Findings argue in the debate but never move the sentiment score.
Coverage reports a $3 billion zero-coupon convertible senior notes offering by the company.
News · gurufocus.com · 2026-09-02Reporting indicates the company upsized the convertible notes offering.
News · kalkinemedia.com · 2026-09-01Reads parsed Forms 3/4/5 — who bought or sold, at what size, and whether a 10b5-1 plan was involved. Flags clustered open-market officer buying; treats plan sales as routine and never counts a fund or 10%-holder as an officer.
Chief Executive Officer Stephane Bancel filed Form 4 entries showing multiple large transactions on 5 August 2026 and 6 August 2026 involving 1,110,371 shares and reported dollar amounts of "$9.6M", "$4.8M", and several sold tranches of "$8.3M", "$7.1M", "$2.3M", and "$11.0M" in those filings; the filings state the transactions were made pursuant to a 10b5-1 plan.
Form 4 · Bancel Stephane (Chief Executive Officer) · $4.8M code M · 2026-08-06President Stephen Hoge reported acquisitions on 15 June 2026 totaling "$713k" (37,226 shares) and "$309k" (16,110 shares) in a filing that states the trades were conducted under a 10b5-1 plan.
Form 4 · Hoge Stephen (President) · $713k code M · 2026-06-15Reads the implied-expectations math built from the company's own filings (the growth rate today's price would justify, and the multiples beside it) and argues whether the market's bar looks high or low for this business. Never turns the math into a target.
Market capitalization is $61,590,120,596 based on the price $154.27 at the price date 2026-09-01.
Valuation inputs · SEC XBRL + stored EOD closeEnterprise value is $60,458,120,596 with cash of $1,723,000,000 and debt of $591,000,000 as of 2026-06-30.
Valuation inputs · SEC XBRL + stored EOD closeDebate and risk review
A bull and a bear contest the claims and the chair rules on each; the risk review stress-tests what survived.
A bull and a bear argue the analysts' claims across two rounds, then a chair rules on each one. Only what survives feeds the score — the argument is shown, not hidden, so you can judge the reasoning yourself.
Several pieces of evidence jointly support a favorable read: market momentum metrics are unusually strong (6‑month momentum and relative strength both at or near the 100th percentile, price well above key moving averages, and a golden cross), multiple news items cite meaningful pipeline progress (Phase 3 melanoma data) and an upsized $3B convertible offering that increases near‑term financing optionality, and the company’s reported cash balance recovered to $1.723B as of 2026-06-30 while a president-level insider reported purchases under a 10b5-1 plan. These signals are high‑strength market and event indicators (clear, recent, and quantified) and they mitigate some concerns about recent operating losses and share issuance when viewed as liquidity and sentiment drivers. While historical quarterly revenues and losses are material, the market and news evidence are strong and contemporaneous, and analyst actions in the street consensus (upgrades/maintains with some higher targets) provide additional corroboration of improved market sentiment.
Chair's verdict, claim by claim
Fragility · computed, not argued
balanced0.30
40 surviving claims rest on 21 distinct sources; the heaviest analyst carries 20% of them, and 98% of what the desk raised survived the debate.
The evidence base is moderately concentrated: 40 claims trace to 21 sources, with one analyst responsible for a fifth of claims and almost all proposals (98%) surviving internal debate. That persistence raises the desk's confidence in the assembled read, but the reliance on a few contributors and a limited set of documents means individual new filings or market moves could materially change how much weight the read should carry.
Peer context · computed, not argued
12-1 momentum ranks 1st of 2 in Biotechnology (as of 2026-09-01).
6-month relative strength ranks 1st of 2 in Biotechnology (as of 2026-09-01).
90-day volatility ranks 1st of 2 in Biotechnology (as of 2026-09-01).
Disconfirming evidence · base rates · falsifiers
Context
Outside consensus, and where this name already sits in your own portfolio.
Third-party consensus shown for context. It never enters Moneyta sentiment — when the two diverge, the debate above is where the why lives.
What this was built from
Every figure on this page traces to one of these. The desk reads only what is listed here — no outside knowledge, no browsing — and each card shows who read it and what it contributed to the score.
17 filings· 2 cited
SEC XBRL filings
Quarterly figures as filed with the SEC, read straight from EDGAR's structured data — not retyped or estimated.
Read by Mercer−0.8 to the score
7 documents· 3 cited
SEC filing documents
The filings themselves, including the year-over-year comparison of Item 1A risk factors.
Read by Oakes+0.0 to the score
1 signal set
Moneyta signal set
Computed from our own end-of-day price history and ranked against the whole research universe. No AI involved.
Read by Nash+0.3 to the score
2 holdings records· 1 cited
Fund holdings
Which funds hold this name and at what weight, plus insider Form 4 filings.
Read by Ellis+0.0 to the score
8 headlines· 2 cited
News coverage
Recent headlines about this company, rating chatter excluded and nothing published after the report date.
Read by Yatesnothing survived
5 filings· 2 cited
Insider filings
Parsed Forms 3/4/5 from EDGAR: named insiders, share counts, prices, and 10b5-1 plan state — stated and inferred flags kept apart.
Read by Talbot−1.0 to the score
1 computation
Valuation inputs
TTM cash-flow figures from the company's own XBRL filings, priced with the stored closing price. Implied growth and multiples only; no fair-value dollar figure reaches the desk, by design.
Read by Archercontext only
1 record· 0 cited
Company profile
Sector, industry and company details.
1 record· 0 cited
Analyst consensus
Third-party consensus, shown for context only — it never enters Moneyta sentiment.
Read means we pulled and handed it to an analyst; cited means a claim on this page points at it. Reading twelve quarters to state one trend is normal — the gap is shown rather than hidden.
Written by AI, checked against sources
The analysts, the bull–bear debate and the editor's note are AI agents reading only the evidence listed on this page. They can misread a filing or a headline, which is why every claim cites a source you can open and check yourself. The sentiment score is arithmetic over the claims that survived the debate, not a language model's opinion.
Educational analysis of published data. Moneyta does not give investment advice or make recommendations. Past patterns do not indicate future results.
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The full terminal on MRNA Gold
Who holds it, who's buying, what the Street thinks: live behind the lock, updated as filings land.
Institutional holders
Net institutional flow, Q/Q
Largest holder position
Insider buys, 90 days
Clustered insider value
Street target range
The real figures are for members. Educational analysis, not advice.
Educational analysis of published data. Moneyta does not give investment advice or make recommendations.