MRSH
Evidence as of 2026-09-03Moneyta sentiment
Where the published evidence leans after the desk debated it — not a rating or a recommendation.
+0.0 on a −2 to +2 scale.
What builds the score
Solid bars are analyst rubric scores; faded bars are computed directly from data. Claims dropped in debate count for nothing; weakened claims count at half weight.
Editor's note
Written after the debate settled — the rest of the page is the evidence behind it.
The evidence balance is Mixed (+ 0.0 of a possible + 2; confidence high). Reported revenue from contracts fell sequentially from $ 7,061,000,000 for the quarter ended 31 March 2025 to $ 6,974,000,000 for the quarter ended 30 June 2025 and to $ 6,351,000,000 for the quarter ended 30 September 2025, then recovered to $ 7,061,000,000 for the quarter ended 31 March 2026 and $ 7,404,000,000 for the quarter ended 30 June 2026. Net income followed a similar path: $ 1,381,000,000 (quarter ended 31 March 2025), down to $ 747,000,000 (quarter ended 30 September 2025), and back up to $ 1,266,000,000 (quarter ended 30 June 2026).
The capital and liquidity picture shows stable long-term debt around $ 19,5 00,000,000 and falling cash from $ 2,687,000,000 as of 31 December 2025 to $ 1,700,000,000 as of 30 June 2026, while weighted-average diluted shares outstanding declined from about 495,000,000 to a point-in-time entity count of 477,211,268 as of 16 July 2026. Market signals are mixed: technical moving-average indicators were bullish as of 2026-09-02, volatility is elevated (30-day annualized vol + 25.5%), beta versus SPY is slightly negative (− 0.30), and valuation multiples show P/E (TTM) 20.99 with EV/EBITDA (TTM) 15.33.
How this note was made
every stage ran before the note was writtenAnalyst desk
Mercer, Oakes, Nash, Ellis, Yates, Talbot and Archer. The desk: named AI agents, not people. Each reads one slice of the evidence and nothing else — no outside knowledge, no browsing — so every finding traces to a source you can open.
Reads the XBRL figures companies file with the SEC — revenue, margins, income, debt and share count, quarter by quarter — and reports which way the trend is running.
Revenue from contracts was 7,061,000,000 for the quarter ended 31 March 2025 (reported in the filing with the 10-Q filed 17 April 2025).
XBRL companyfacts · 0000062709-25-000028Revenue from contracts fell to 6,974,000,000 for the quarter ended 30 June 2025 (reported in the filing with the 10-Q filed 17 July 2025) and further to 6,351,000,000 for the quarter ended 30 September 2025 (reported in the filing with the 10-Q filed 16 October 2025), demonstrating a sequential decline across those three fiscal quarters.
XBRL companyfacts · 0000062709-25-000069Reads the filings themselves, above all the year-over-year diff of Item 1A risk factors: which risks a company added, dropped or quietly reworded since its last annual report.
Nothing in this slice of the evidence rose to a claim — a quiet read, which itself is information.
Which filings the desk reads
The desk reads the annual 10-K in full — its risk factors, and how they changed since last year. Quarterly 10-Qs and event filings (8-Ks, insider Form 4s) are listed for context but not read line by line: the 10-K is where the material risk disclosures live. A brand-new company, or one we have only just begun tracking, may have no annual report on file yet — its risk analysis fills in once that lands.
Reads the signal panel above — momentum, volatility, drawdown, relative strength and beta — and ranks each against the whole research universe rather than judging it in isolation.
As of 2026-09-02, short-term momentum is positive: 3-month momentum is +20.1% and 6-month momentum is +2.7%.
Moneyta signal set · 2026-09-02weakened in debateAs of 2026-09-02, price and moving-average indicators show a bullish technical posture: a golden cross is present, the price is +2.3% above the 50-day simple moving average and +6.5% above the 200-day simple moving average, with the cross age at 16 days.
Moneyta signal set · 2026-09-02Reads which funds hold the name and at what weight, plus insider Form 4 filings, to show the exposure you may already carry through index funds.
As of 2026-09-02T13:45:47.228469+00:00, the ETF with symbol IVV included MRSH at a weight of 0.12% of the fund.
ETF constituents · market dataThis entry documents factual ETF membership exposure for MRSH in IVV at the timestamp shown; it is a snapshot of holdings rather than a statement about future flows or performance.
ETF constituents · market dataReads recent headlines that are genuinely about this company, ignoring rating chatter and market-wide stories. Findings argue in the debate but never move the sentiment score.
Coverage from finance.yahoo.com on 2 Sep 2026 highlights Marsh & McLennan's launch of a Cyber Protect offering in Asia and a group-wide rebrand (Marsh Re), signaling product and branding activity.
News · finance.yahoo.com · 2026-09-02A finance.yahoo.com piece on 2 Sep 2026 frames the company's valuation as mixed: an intrinsic-value view suggests upside while market multiples and earnings metrics send more cautionary signals.
News · finance.yahoo.com · 2026-09-02Reads parsed Forms 3/4/5 — who bought or sold, at what size, and whether a 10b5-1 plan was involved. Flags clustered open-market officer buying; treats plan sales as routine and never counts a fund or 10%-holder as an officer.
No SEC identity on file for this symbol — insider filings cannot be looked up.
Reads the implied-expectations math built from the company's own filings (the growth rate today's price would justify, and the multiples beside it) and argues whether the market's bar looks high or low for this business. Never turns the math into a target.
The company’s trailing twelve-month free cash flow is negative $3,198,000,000 (FCF_TTM -3,198,000,000).
Valuation inputs · SEC XBRL + stored EOD closeTrailing twelve-month net cash provided by (used in) operating activities is negative $2,910,000,000 (OCF_TTM -2,910,000,000) while capital expenditures for the same period are $288,000,000.
Valuation inputs · SEC XBRL + stored EOD closeDebate and risk review
A bull and a bear contest the claims and the chair rules on each; the risk review stress-tests what survived.
A bull and a bear argue the analysts' claims across two rounds, then a chair rules on each one. Only what survives feeds the score — the argument is shown, not hidden, so you can judge the reasoning yourself.
SEC-filed operating results and share-count disclosures show a clear recovery from the mid-2025 trough: revenue rose from a Q3 2025 low of $6.351B to $7.404B by Q2 2026, and net income similarly improved from $747M (Q3 2025) to $1.266B (Q2 2026). The company reduced its share count materially (point-in-time shares down to 477.2M) while increasing repurchase outflows year-over-year, which together amplify per-share economics. Market signals also align with constructive near-term sentiment: multi-month momentum is positive, technical moving-average indicators are bullish, dividend growth is above the peer median, and several institutional filings show new or increased positions. Against the bear points about cash-flow weakness and elevated volatility, the firm’s TTM operating income remains strong ($6.652B) and long-term debt has been stable, which are fact-based offsets documented in filings.
Chair's verdict, claim by claim
Fragility · computed, not argued
balanced0.34
31 surviving claims rest on 15 distinct sources; the heaviest analyst carries 26% of them, and 97% of what the desk raised survived the debate.
The read rests on a moderate breadth of source material (15 distinct sources) but a sizable share of surviving claims trace back to a single analyst (the heaviest at 26%), and nearly all proposed points (97%) survived internal debate. Together this means the dossier is empirically rich but partially concentrated: the collection of claims is not fragile in the sense of being single-source-only, yet analyst-weight concentration and high debate survival imply the set may be resistant to challenge — treat individual claims as informative but confirm key items with primary filings where material.
Disconfirming evidence · base rates · falsifiers
Context
Outside consensus, and where this name already sits in your own portfolio.
Third-party consensus shown for context. It never enters Moneyta sentiment — when the two diverge, the debate above is where the why lives.
What this was built from
Every figure on this page traces to one of these. The desk reads only what is listed here — no outside knowledge, no browsing — and each card shows who read it and what it contributed to the score.
13 filings· 2 cited
SEC XBRL filings
Quarterly figures as filed with the SEC, read straight from EDGAR's structured data — not retyped or estimated.
Read by Mercer+0.0 to the score
1 signal set
Moneyta signal set
Computed from our own end-of-day price history and ranked against the whole research universe. No AI involved.
Read by Nash+0.0 to the score
1 holdings record
Fund holdings
Which funds hold this name and at what weight, plus insider Form 4 filings.
Read by Ellis+0.0 to the score
8 headlines· 2 cited
News coverage
Recent headlines about this company, rating chatter excluded and nothing published after the report date.
Read by Yatesnothing survived
1 computation
Valuation inputs
TTM cash-flow figures from the company's own XBRL filings, priced with the stored closing price. Implied growth and multiples only; no fair-value dollar figure reaches the desk, by design.
Read by Archercontext only
1 record· 0 cited
Analyst consensus
Third-party consensus, shown for context only — it never enters Moneyta sentiment.
Read means we pulled and handed it to an analyst; cited means a claim on this page points at it. Reading twelve quarters to state one trend is normal — the gap is shown rather than hidden.
Written by AI, checked against sources
The analysts, the bull–bear debate and the editor's note are AI agents reading only the evidence listed on this page. They can misread a filing or a headline, which is why every claim cites a source you can open and check yourself. The sentiment score is arithmetic over the claims that survived the debate, not a language model's opinion.
Educational analysis of published data. Moneyta does not give investment advice or make recommendations. Past patterns do not indicate future results.
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The full terminal on MRSH Gold
Who holds it, who's buying, what the Street thinks: live behind the lock, updated as filings land.
Institutional holders
Net institutional flow, Q/Q
Largest holder position
Insider buys, 90 days
Clustered insider value
Street target range
The real figures are for members. Educational analysis, not advice.
Educational analysis of published data. Moneyta does not give investment advice or make recommendations.