MSFT
MICROSOFT CORPEvidence as of 2026-09-15The desk's Snapshot
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Overview · MICROSOFT CORP
Microsoft Corporation develops, licenses, and supports software, services, devices, and solutions worldwide. The company operates in three segments: Productivity and Business Processes, Intelligent Cloud, and More Personal Computing. The Productivity and Business Processes segment offers Office, Exchange, SharePoint, Microsoft Teams, Office 365 Security and Compliance, Microsoft Viva, and Skype for Business; Skype, O…
Management team
- Mr. Takeshi Numoto · Executive VP & Chief Marketing OfficerFind on LinkedIn
- Mr. Frank X. Shaw · Chief Communications OfficerFind on LinkedIn
- Mr. Judson B. Althoff · Executive VP & Chief Commercial OfficerFind on LinkedIn
- Mr. Bradford L. Smith LCA · President & Vice ChairmanFind on LinkedIn
Start free to see the full management team.
Links open LinkedIn searches, not verified profiles. Team data from our market-data vendor's company profile.
Moneyta sentiment
Where the published evidence leans after the desk debated it, not a rating or a recommendation.
+0.2 on a −2 to +2 scale.
What builds the score
Solid bars are analyst rubric scores; faded bars are computed directly from data. Claims dropped in debate count for nothing; weakened claims count at half weight.
Editor's note
Written after the debate settled. The rest of the page is the evidence behind it.
The evidence balance is Mixed (+ 0.2 of a possible + 2; was + 0.2 before debate) · confidence high. Over the three most recent fiscal quarters, Microsoft’s reported operating metrics show widening gross profit and mostly stable operating income alongside a net income peak in FY 2026 Q2 (fiscal quarter ended 2025-12-31) of $ 38,458,000,000 before a pullback to $ 31,778,000,000 in FY 2026 Q3 (fiscal quarter ended 2026-04-23), and diluted EPS that rose to $ 5.16 in FY 2026 Q2 then fell to $ 4.27 in FY 2026 Q3. Share counts edged lower across reporting dates (entity common shares from 7,432,377,655 on 2025-10-23 to 7,425,545,491 on 2026-07-23, a net decline of 6,832,164), while trailing twelve‑month free cash flow of $ 67,647,000,000 and a trailing P/E of 30.43 are recorded alongside an enterprise value of $ 3,772,303,946,606.
The company’s annual disclosures to 30 June 2026 show Microsoft Cloud revenue at $ 214.4 billion (up 27%), Azure and other cloud services up 41%, and commercial remaining performance obligation at $ 678 billion (up 84%), while Windows OEM & Devices and Xbox content and services showed softer outcomes for the year.
How this note was made
every stage ran before the note was writtenAnalyst desk
Mercer, Oakes, Nash, Ellis, Yates, Talbot and Archer. The desk: named AI agents, not people. Each reads one slice of the evidence and nothing else (no outside knowledge, no browsing), so every finding traces to a source you can open.
Reads the XBRL figures companies file with the SEC (revenue, margins, income, debt and share count, quarter by quarter) and reports which way the trend is running.
Entity common shares outstanding moved from 7,432,377,655 as of 2025-10-23 to 7,425,629,076 as of 2026-01-22 to 7,428,434,704 as of 2026-04-23 to 7,425,545,491 as of 2026-07-23, a net decline of 6,832,164 shares over that interval.
XBRL companyfacts · 0001193125-25-256321Weighted average diluted shares outstanding fell quarter-to-quarter from 7,466,000,000 in fiscal Q1 2026 (2025-07-01 to 2025-09-30, 3mo) to 7,460,000,000 in fiscal Q2 2026 (2025-10-01 to 2025-12-31, 3mo) to 7,445,000,000 in fiscal Q3 2026 (2026-01-01 to 2026-03-31, 3mo).
XBRL companyfacts · 0001193125-25-256321Reads the filings themselves, above all the year-over-year diff of Item 1A risk factors: which risks a company added, dropped or quietly reworded since its last annual report.
Which filings the desk reads
The desk reads the annual 10-K in full: its risk factors, and how they changed since last year. Quarterly 10-Qs and event filings (8-Ks, insider Form 4s) are listed for context but not read line by line: the 10-K is where the material risk disclosures live. A brand-new company, or one we have only just begun tracking, may have no annual report on file yet; its risk analysis fills in once that lands.
Microsoft Cloud revenue increased 27% to $214.4 billion in the year ended June 30, 2026 (the Form 10-K filed 2026-07-29 states this in MD&A).
Management's discussion · filed 2026-07-29Commercial remaining performance obligation increased 84% to $678 billion for the year ended June 30, 2026 (reported in the MD&A in the Form 10-K filed 2026-07-29).
Management's discussion · filed 2026-07-29Reads the signal panel above (momentum, volatility, drawdown, relative strength and beta) and ranks each against the whole research universe rather than judging it in isolation.
Momentum over the last 6 months is +28.1% and ranks in the 83th percentile of the 559-stock research universe on 2026-09-14.
Moneyta signal set · 2026-09-14weakened in debateThe 12-1 momentum measure (momentum_12_1) is -5.4% and ranks in the 24th percentile of the 559-stock research universe on 2026-09-14.
Moneyta signal set · 2026-09-14weakened in debateReads which funds hold the name and at what weight, plus insider Form 4 filings, to show the exposure you may already carry through index funds.
Institutions reported aggregate holdings valued at $2013.31B in the 13F report for the period ended 2026-03-31 (13F filings carry a 45-day reporting lag).
13F holdings · 6138 filers · as of 2026-03-31BlackRock, Inc. was listed as a top holder with reported value $219.68B and a quarter-over-quarter reported change of -24.6% in the 13F for the period ended 2026-03-31.
13F holdings · 6138 filers · as of 2026-03-31Reads recent headlines that are genuinely about this company, ignoring rating chatter and market-wide stories. Findings argue in the debate but never move the sentiment score.
Multiple outlets on 14–15 September 2026 are reporting company-specific coverage about Microsoft’s AI stance, noting the CEO’s emphasis on AI safety and reporting that Microsoft executives joined other AI leaders in calling for a slowdown in advanced AI development over safety concerns.
News · gurufocus.com · 2026-09-15Several distinct outlets on 14 September 2026 highlighted Microsoft’s change to report Azure revenue on a quarterly basis rather than only reporting growth rates, framing it as an accounting and disclosure move affecting how Azure performance will be presented.
News · finance.yahoo.com · 2026-09-14Reads parsed Forms 3/4/5: who bought or sold, at what size, and whether a 10b5-1 plan was involved. Flags clustered open-market officer buying; treats plan sales as routine and never counts a fund or 10%-holder as an officer.
Satya Nadella (Chief Executive Officer) reported eight sales on 1 September 2026 totaling $43.505M for 86,525 shares, and each sale filing states the trades were made pursuant to a 10b5-1 plan.
Form 4 · Nadella Satya (Chief Executive Officer) · $518k sold · 2026-09-01Amy Hood (EVP, Chief Financial Officer) reported a sale on 31 August 2026 of 18,738.823 shares with an aggregate value of $9.6M (code F) in filing insider:MSFT:the 4 filed 1 September 2026.
Form 4 · Hood Amy (EVP, Chief Financial Officer) · $0 code A · 2026-08-31Reads the implied-expectations math built from the company's own filings (the growth rate today's price would justify, and the multiples beside it) and argues whether the market's bar looks high or low for this business. Never turns the math into a target.
The model reports an implied free cash flow (FCF) growth rate of 36.04% that today's price would justify under the stated discount and terminal assumptions.
Valuation inputs · SEC XBRL + stored EOD closeweakened in debatePrice-to-free-cash-flow (P/FCF) on trailing twelve months FCF is 55.62.
Valuation inputs · SEC XBRL + stored EOD closeweakened in debateDebate and risk review
A bull and a bear contest the claims and the chair rules on each; the risk review stress-tests what survived.
A bull and a bear argue the analysts' claims across two rounds, then a chair rules on each one. Only what survives feeds the score. The argument is shown, not hidden, so you can judge the reasoning yourself.
Several company-reported metrics jointly support a favorable read: Microsoft Cloud revenue and Azure growth (filings-0, filings-2) sit alongside a large increase in commercial remaining performance obligation (filings-1), which together indicate material demand and contracted revenue exposure for cloud services. Operationally, revenue, gross profit, and operating income trended up across recent quarters (fundamentals-2, fundamentals-3, fundamentals-6) while diluted shares outstanding declined slightly (fundamentals-0, fundamentals-1), which mechanically supports per-share results like EPS when operating performance is stable. Balance sheet and capital structure items show lower long-term debt and rising stockholders’ equity over the reported intervals (fundamentals-8, fundamentals-9), and large ETF/index ownership plus recent disclosure moves on Azure revenue reporting (ownership-3, news-1) increase institutional visibility. The bear points—high headline valuation metrics (valuation-0, valuation-1), CEO sale filings (insider-0), and elevated short-term volatility (market-4)—are present in the record but are mixed in evidentiary strength versus the operational and contract metrics: the CEO sales are reported as 10b5-1 plan transactions and the sales are offset in the filings by non-cash award-related acquisitions (insider-5), while momentum and technical signals show meaningful positive movement over 6 months and price above moving averages (market-0, market-2).
Chair's verdict, claim by claim
Fragility · computed, not argued
balanced0.35
44 surviving claims rest on 21 distinct sources; the heaviest analyst carries 23% of them, and 91% of what the desk raised survived the debate.
The set of surviving claims is moderately robust: 44 claims drawn from 21 sources gives some breadth, and a 91% survival rate through internal debate suggests high internal consistency. However, nearly a quarter of surviving claims trace to the single heaviest analyst, which creates a concentration risk — treat read-throughs that depend on that analyst as less independent than those corroborated across multiple, different source types.
Peer context · computed, not argued
12-1 momentum ranks 13th of 21 in Software—Infrastructure (as of 2026-09-14).
6-month relative strength ranks 13th of 21 in Software—Infrastructure (as of 2026-09-14).
90-day volatility ranks 20th of 21 in Software—Infrastructure (as of 2026-09-14).
Disconfirming evidence · base rates · falsifiers
Context
Outside consensus, and where this name already sits in your own portfolio.
Third-party consensus shown for context. It never enters Moneyta sentiment. When the two diverge, the debate above is where the why lives.
What this was built from
Every figure on this page traces to one of these. The desk reads only what is listed here (no outside knowledge, no browsing), and each card shows who read it and what it contributed to the score.
8 filings· 2 cited
SEC XBRL filings
Quarterly figures as filed with the SEC, read straight from EDGAR's structured data, not retyped or estimated.
Read by Mercer+0.9 to the score
11 documents· 1 cited
SEC filing documents
The filings themselves, including the year-over-year comparison of Item 1A risk factors.
Read by Oakes+1.0 to the score
1 signal set
Moneyta signal set
Computed from our own end-of-day price history and ranked against the whole research universe. No AI involved.
Read by Nash−0.2 to the score
3 holdings records· 1 cited
Fund holdings
Which funds hold this name and at what weight, plus insider Form 4 filings.
Read by Ellis+0.0 to the score
8 headlines· 2 cited
News coverage
Recent headlines about this company, rating chatter excluded and nothing published after the report date.
Read by Yatesnothing survived
8 filings· 2 cited
Insider filings
Parsed Forms 3/4/5 from EDGAR: named insiders, share counts, prices, and 10b5-1 plan state, with stated and inferred flags kept apart.
Read by Talbot−0.9 to the score
1 computation
Valuation inputs
TTM cash-flow figures from the company's own XBRL filings, priced with the stored closing price. Implied growth and multiples only; no fair-value dollar figure reaches the desk, by design.
Read by Archercontext only
1 record· 0 cited
Company profile
Sector, industry and company details.
1 record· 0 cited
Analyst consensus
Third-party consensus, shown for context only; it never enters Moneyta sentiment.
Read means we pulled and handed it to an analyst; cited means a claim on this page points at it. Reading twelve quarters to state one trend is normal; the gap is shown rather than hidden.
Written by AI, checked against sources
The analysts, the bull–bear debate and the editor's note are AI agents reading only the evidence listed on this page. They can misread a filing or a headline, which is why every claim cites a source you can open and check yourself. The sentiment score is arithmetic over the claims that survived the debate, not a language model's opinion.
Educational analysis of published data. Moneyta does not give investment advice or make recommendations. Past patterns do not indicate future results.
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Institutional holders
Net institutional flow, Q/Q
Largest holder position
Insider buys, 90 days
Clustered insider value
Street target range
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