MSFT
MICROSOFT CORPEvidence as of 2026-08-27The desk's Snapshot
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Overview · MICROSOFT CORP
Microsoft Corporation develops, licenses, and supports software, services, devices, and solutions worldwide. The company operates in three segments: Productivity and Business Processes, Intelligent Cloud, and More Personal Computing. The Productivity and Business Processes segment offers Office, Exchange, SharePoint, Microsoft Teams, Office 365 Security and Compliance, Microsoft Viva, and Skype for Business; Skype, O…
Management team
- Mr. Takeshi Numoto · Executive VP & Chief Marketing OfficerFind on LinkedIn
- Mr. Frank X. Shaw · Chief Communications OfficerFind on LinkedIn
- Mr. Judson B. Althoff · Executive VP & Chief Commercial OfficerFind on LinkedIn
- Mr. Bradford L. Smith LCA · President & Vice ChairmanFind on LinkedIn
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Links open LinkedIn searches, not verified profiles. Team data from our market-data vendor's company profile.
Moneyta sentiment
Where the published evidence leans after the desk debated it — not a rating or a recommendation.
−0.1 on a −2 to +2 scale.
What builds the score
Solid bars are analyst rubric scores; faded bars are computed directly from data. Claims dropped in debate count for nothing; weakened claims count at half weight.
Editor's note
Written after the debate settled — the rest of the page is the evidence behind it.
Revenue from contracts rose from $77,673,000,000 (three months ended 30 September 2025) to $81,273,000,000 (three months ended 31 December 2025) and to $82,886,000,000 (three months ended 31 March 2026), though the sequential increase slowed from +$3,600,000,000 to +$1,613,000,000. Gross profit climbed from $53,630,000,000 to $56,058,000,000 across the same three periods while revenue growth decelerated, implying modest gross‑margin compression; net income moved from $27,747,000,000 to $35,425,000,000 then down to $31,778,000,000.
Repurchase cash outflows varied: $5,650,000,000, $7,415,000,000 and $4,627,000,000 in those three quarters, while common shares outstanding remained roughly flat near 7,425,000,000 shares. Reported long‑term debt fell from $43,151,000,000 (30 June 2025) to $40,294,000,000 (30 June 2026), a decline of about $2,857,000,000. In the 29 July 2026 MD&A, Microsoft reported Microsoft Cloud revenue of $214.4 billion (up 27%), commercial remaining performance obligation of $678 billion (up 84%), Azure and other cloud services up 41%, and noted extended OpenAI revenue‑sharing arrangements and the risk that cloud and AI infrastructure investment may increase operating costs. Market signals are mixed: six‑month momentum is +24.2% (83rd percentile) while 12‑month momentum is −22.8% (16th percentile); 30‑day volatility is elevated at 51.8% and trailing P/E is 29.88 with market cap $3,685,818,015,368 and implied net debt of about $19,359,000,000.
How this note was made
every stage ran before the note was writtenAnalyst desk
Mercer, Oakes, Nash, Ellis, Yates, Talbot and Archer. The desk: named AI agents, not people. Each reads one slice of the evidence and nothing else — no outside knowledge, no browsing — so every finding traces to a source you can open.
Reads the XBRL figures companies file with the SEC — revenue, margins, income, debt and share count, quarter by quarter — and reports which way the trend is running.
Revenue from contracts (three-month periods) rose from $77,673,000,000 in the fiscal quarter ended 30 September 2025 to $81,273,000,000 in the three months ended 31 December 2025 and to $82,886,000,000 in the three months ended 31 March 2026, with the sequential increase slowing from +$3,600,000,000 to +$1,613,000,000.
XBRL companyfacts · 0001193125-26-191507Gross profit for the same three-month periods moved from $53,630,000,000 (three months ended 30 September 2025) to $55,295,000,000 (three months ended 31 December 2025) and to $56,058,000,000 (three months ended 31 March 2026), while revenue grew more slowly quarter-to-quarter, indicating modest gross margin compression across those quarters.
XBRL companyfacts · 0001193125-25-256321Reads the filings themselves, above all the year-over-year diff of Item 1A risk factors: which risks a company added, dropped or quietly reworded since its last annual report.
Which filings the desk reads
The desk reads the annual 10-K in full — its risk factors, and how they changed since last year. Quarterly 10-Qs and event filings (8-Ks, insider Form 4s) are listed for context but not read line by line: the 10-K is where the material risk disclosures live. A brand-new company, or one we have only just begun tracking, may have no annual report on file yet — its risk analysis fills in once that lands.
In the Management's Discussion and Analysis filed 29 July 2026, Microsoft reported Microsoft Cloud revenue increased 27% to $214.4 billion for the year ended June 30, 2026 compared with the prior year.
10-K filed 2026-07-29In the Management's Discussion and Analysis filed 29 July 2026, Microsoft reported commercial remaining performance obligation increased 84% to $678 billion for the year ended June 30, 2026 compared with the prior year.
10-K filed 2026-07-29Reads the signal panel above — momentum, volatility, drawdown, relative strength and beta — and ranks each against the whole research universe rather than judging it in isolation.
Momentum over the past 6 months (fiscal 6m window ended 2026-08-26) is +24.2% and ranks in the 83th percentile of the 547-stock research universe.
Moneyta signal set · 2026-08-26weakened in debateThe cross-sectional short-term volatility signal is elevated: 30-day annualized volatility is +51.8% and 90-day annualized volatility is +41.3%, with volatility versus the stock's own history at the 99th percentile of the 547-stock universe.
Moneyta signal set · 2026-08-26Reads which funds hold the name and at what weight, plus insider Form 4 filings, to show the exposure you may already carry through index funds.
Institutional holders reported aggregated holdings worth $2012.32B as of 2026-03-31.
13F holdings · 6135 filers · as of 2026-03-31Reported institutional value declined 22.9% quarter-over-quarter and the reported holder count fell by 145 with 363 exited positions in the 13F quarter ended 2026-03-31.
13F holdings · 6135 filers · as of 2026-03-31Reads recent headlines that are genuinely about this company, ignoring rating chatter and market-wide stories. Findings argue in the debate but never move the sentiment score.
The headline reports a 0.9% gain for Microsoft on the day of publication.
News · gurufocus.com · 2026-08-27The headline compares a GF Value of $579.21 to a price of $496.37, implying the outlet frames the stock as trading below its GF Value.
News · gurufocus.com · 2026-08-27Reads parsed Forms 3/4/5 — who bought or sold, at what size, and whether a 10b5-1 plan was involved. Flags clustered open-market officer buying; treats plan sales as routine and never counts a fund or 10%-holder as an officer.
Judson Althoff (CEO, Microsoft Commercial) reported sales of 15,500 shares for $7.1M on 2026-06-01 in a Form 4 filing that does not indicate a 10b5-1 trading plan.
Form 4 · Althoff Judson (CEO Microsoft Commercial) · $7.1M sold · 2026-06-01Judson Althoff reported an additional sale of 10,000 shares for $4.9M on 2026-08-05 in a Form 4 filing that does not indicate a 10b5-1 trading plan.
Form 4 · Althoff Judson (CEO Microsoft Commercial) · $4.9M sold · 2026-08-05Reads the implied-expectations math built from the company's own filings (the growth rate today's price would justify, and the multiples beside it) and argues whether the market's bar looks high or low for this business. Never turns the math into a target.
The trailing twelve‑month price/earnings (P/E) ratio is 29.88 as of the price date 26 August 2026.
Valuation inputs · SEC XBRL + stored EOD closeMarket capitalization is $3,685,818,015,368 and enterprise value is $3,705,177,015,368 as of the price date 26 August 2026.
Valuation inputs · SEC XBRL + stored EOD closeDebate and risk review
A bull and a bear contest the claims and the chair rules on each; the risk review stress-tests what survived.
A bull and a bear argue the analysts' claims across two rounds, then a chair rules on each one. Only what survives feeds the score — the argument is shown, not hidden, so you can judge the reasoning yourself.
The company-filed MD&A items (filings-0, filings-1, filings-2, filings-3) provide strong, primary-source evidence of sizable cloud revenue growth, a large increase in commercial remaining performance obligations, and an extended OpenAI partnership; these are high-strength signals because they come from the company’s formal filings. The cash-flow and balance-sheet metrics (valuation-2, valuation-3, fundamentals-5) are also strong, auditor-filed figures showing substantial operating cash generation and a modest net-debt position, which materially support a favorable operational-read narrative. Quarterly revenue and gross-profit series (fundamentals-0, fundamentals-1) are direct reported results and constitute medium-to-strong evidence of ongoing top-line expansion with modest margin pressure; share-count stability and repeat buybacks (fundamentals-3, fundamentals-4) are reported and strengthen the capital-allocation case. Counterpoints such as elevated short-term volatility (market-1), longer-horizon negative momentum (market-2), insider sales (insider-0..3), and a quarter-over-quarter reported institutional value decline (ownership-1) are also direct signals but are mixed in evidentiary strength: market signals are high-frequency and strong for price action, while insider/form-13F items are factual but require contextual interpretation and are medium strength relative to filed operating metrics. Financial advisors often note that company-filed revenue, RPO and cash-flow figures typically carry more weight for company-specific fundamental assessment than short-term market noise or isolated insider transactions.
Chair's verdict, claim by claim
Fragility · computed, not argued
balanced0.35
37 surviving claims rest on 15 distinct sources; the heaviest analyst carries 16% of them, and 96% of what the desk raised survived the debate.
The evidence set shows moderate source breadth (37 claims from 15 distinct sources), so many claims are cross‑linked but still rely on a limited pool of documents. One analyst accounting for 16% of surviving claims means no single voice dominates, but there is a nontrivial concentration that would amplify any error from that contributor; likewise, a 96% survival rate through debate indicates the desk retained most claims after scrutiny, so the current read is internally resilient but not immune to new external filings or market moves.
Peer context · computed, not argued
12-1 momentum ranks 14th of 21 in Software—Infrastructure (as of 2026-08-26).
6-month relative strength ranks 14th of 21 in Software—Infrastructure (as of 2026-08-26).
90-day volatility ranks 20th of 21 in Software—Infrastructure (as of 2026-08-26).
Disconfirming evidence · base rates · falsifiers
Context
Outside consensus, and where this name already sits in your own portfolio.
Third-party consensus shown for context. It never enters Moneyta sentiment — when the two diverge, the debate above is where the why lives.
What this was built from
Every figure on this page traces to one of these. The desk reads only what is listed here — no outside knowledge, no browsing — and each card shows who read it and what it contributed to the score.
12 filings· 3 cited
SEC XBRL filings
Quarterly figures as filed with the SEC, read straight from EDGAR's structured data — not retyped or estimated.
Read by Mercer+0.3 to the score
8 documents· 2 cited
SEC filing documents
The filings themselves, including the year-over-year comparison of Item 1A risk factors.
Read by Oakes+0.7 to the score
1 signal set
Moneyta signal set
Computed from our own end-of-day price history and ranked against the whole research universe. No AI involved.
Read by Nash−0.6 to the score
3 holdings records· 1 cited
Fund holdings
Which funds hold this name and at what weight, plus insider Form 4 filings.
Read by Ellis+0.4 to the score
1 headline
News coverage
Recent headlines about this company, rating chatter excluded and nothing published after the report date.
Read by Yatesnothing survived
19 filings· 2 cited
Insider filings
Parsed Forms 3/4/5 from EDGAR: named insiders, share counts, prices, and 10b5-1 plan state — stated and inferred flags kept apart.
Read by Talbot−1.5 to the score
1 computation
Valuation inputs
TTM cash-flow figures from the company's own XBRL filings, priced with the stored closing price. Implied growth and multiples only; no fair-value dollar figure reaches the desk, by design.
Read by Archercontext only
1 record· 0 cited
Company profile
Sector, industry and company details.
1 record· 0 cited
Analyst consensus
Third-party consensus, shown for context only — it never enters Moneyta sentiment.
Read means we pulled and handed it to an analyst; cited means a claim on this page points at it. Reading twelve quarters to state one trend is normal — the gap is shown rather than hidden.
Written by AI, checked against sources
The analysts, the bull–bear debate and the editor's note are AI agents reading only the evidence listed on this page. They can misread a filing or a headline, which is why every claim cites a source you can open and check yourself. The sentiment score is arithmetic over the claims that survived the debate, not a language model's opinion.
Educational analysis of published data. Moneyta does not give investment advice or make recommendations. Past patterns do not indicate future results.
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Institutional holders
Net institutional flow, Q/Q
Largest holder position
Insider buys, 90 days
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