PGR
The Progressive CorporationEvidence as of 2026-09-03Overview · The Progressive Corporation
The Progressive Corporation, an insurance holding company, provides personal and commercial auto, personal residential and commercial property, general liability, and other specialty property-casualty insurance products and related services in the United States. It operates in three segments: Personal Lines, Commercial Lines, and Property. The Personal Lines segment writes insurance for personal autos and recreationa…
Management team
- Mr. David M. Stringer · VP, Secretary & Chief Legal OfficerFind on LinkedIn
- Ms. Karen Barone Bailo · President of Commercial LinesFind on LinkedIn
- Mr. John Joseph Murphy · President of ClaimsFind on LinkedIn
- Mr. Patrick K. Callahan · President of Personal LinesFind on LinkedIn
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Links open LinkedIn searches, not verified profiles. Team data from our market-data vendor's company profile.
Moneyta sentiment
Where the published evidence leans after the desk debated it — not a rating or a recommendation.
+0.4 on a −2 to +2 scale.
What builds the score
Solid bars are analyst rubric scores; faded bars are computed directly from data. Claims dropped in debate count for nothing; weakened claims count at half weight.
Editor's note
Written after the debate settled — the rest of the page is the evidence behind it.
The evidence balance is Mixed (+0.4 of a possible +2; was +0.4 before debate) · confidence high. Reported revenues rose from $ 20,409,000,000 in fiscal Q1 2025 (period ended 2025-04-30) to $ 23,609,000,000 in fiscal Q2 2026 (period ended 2026-07-02), while diluted EPS increased from $ 4.37 to $ 5.67 over the same comparison. Quarterly net income moved from $ 2,615,000,000 in fiscal Q3 2025 (period ended 2025-10-02) to $ 3,331,000,000 in fiscal Q2 2026, and total assets rose from $ 105,745,000,000 as of 2024-12-31 to $ 124,925,000,000 as of 2026-06-30.
Market and valuation signals are mixed: trailing twelve-month dividend yield is +6.28% (97th percentile), three‑year dividend growth is +226.3%, volatility is elevated (30‑day +26.6%, 90‑day +30.9%), and beta versus SPY is -0.52 with correlation -0.25. Trailing metrics show price‑to‑FCF 8.09, P/E (TTM) 10.89 with EPS TTM = 20.32, TTM FCF $ 15,979,300,000 (FCF/share $ 27.3524), and an implied FCF growth of -11.48% per year given the current price; diversification principles and common valuation reasoning indicate a negative implied growth rate is notable for a business reporting multi‑billion-dollar trailing FCF.
How this note was made
every stage ran before the note was writtenAnalyst desk
Mercer, Oakes, Nash, Ellis, Yates, Talbot and Archer. The desk: named AI agents, not people. Each reads one slice of the evidence and nothing else — no outside knowledge, no browsing — so every finding traces to a source you can open.
Reads the XBRL figures companies file with the SEC — revenue, margins, income, debt and share count, quarter by quarter — and reports which way the trend is running.
Reported revenues rose from $20,409,000,000 in the quarter 2025-01-01 to 2025-03-31 (fiscal Q1 2025) to $23,609,000,000 in the quarter 2026-04-01 to 2026-06-30 (fiscal Q2 2026).
XBRL companyfacts · 0000080661-25-000023Diluted earnings per share increased from $4.37 in the quarter 2025-01-01 to 2025-03-31 (fiscal Q1 2025) to $5.67 in the quarter 2026-04-01 to 2026-06-30 (fiscal Q2 2026).
XBRL companyfacts · 0000080661-26-000308Reads the filings themselves, above all the year-over-year diff of Item 1A risk factors: which risks a company added, dropped or quietly reworded since its last annual report.
Nothing in this slice of the evidence rose to a claim — a quiet read, which itself is information.
Which filings the desk reads
The desk reads the annual 10-K in full — its risk factors, and how they changed since last year. Quarterly 10-Qs and event filings (8-Ks, insider Form 4s) are listed for context but not read line by line: the 10-K is where the material risk disclosures live. A brand-new company, or one we have only just begun tracking, may have no annual report on file yet — its risk analysis fills in once that lands.
Reads the signal panel above — momentum, volatility, drawdown, relative strength and beta — and ranks each against the whole research universe rather than judging it in isolation.
As of 2026-09-02, PGR's trailing twelve-month dividend yield is +6.28% and that yield ranks in the 97th percentile of the 547-name research universe.
Moneyta signal set · 2026-09-02Dividend growth over the past three years is reported at +226.3% as of 2026-09-02.
Moneyta signal set · 2026-09-02Reads which funds hold the name and at what weight, plus insider Form 4 filings, to show the exposure you may already carry through index funds.
As of 2026-09-02, the security appears in the ETF with symbol IVV at a weight of 0.2% of that fund.
ETF constituents · market dataThe ETF membership data point is timestamped 2026-09-02T13:45:47.228469+00:00 in the provided record.
ETF constituents · market dataReads recent headlines that are genuinely about this company, ignoring rating chatter and market-wide stories. Findings argue in the debate but never move the sentiment score.
A roundup of analyst moves published 1 September 2026 reports a UBS price-target raise and an upgrade from Weiss Ratings in late August 2026.
News · thelincolnianonline.com · 2026-09-01A valuation piece on 1 September 2026 states a discounted cash flow (DCF) intrinsic value of $607 versus a price of $218.
News · gurufocus.com · 2026-09-01Reads parsed Forms 3/4/5 — who bought or sold, at what size, and whether a 10b5-1 plan was involved. Flags clustered open-market officer buying; treats plan sales as routine and never counts a fund or 10%-holder as an officer.
No insider transactions on file in the trailing 180 days.
Reads the implied-expectations math built from the company's own filings (the growth rate today's price would justify, and the multiples beside it) and argues whether the market's bar looks high or low for this business. Never turns the math into a target.
The model's implied free-cash-flow (FCF) growth rate that today's price would justify is -11.48% per year (implied_growth = -0.1148).
Valuation inputs · SEC XBRL + stored EOD closePrice-to-FCF (trailing twelve months) is 8.09.
Valuation inputs · SEC XBRL + stored EOD closeDebate and risk review
A bull and a bear contest the claims and the chair rules on each; the risk review stress-tests what survived.
A bull and a bear argue the analysts' claims across two rounds, then a chair rules on each one. Only what survives feeds the score — the argument is shown, not hidden, so you can judge the reasoning yourself.
Several company-level fundamentals point to a favorable read: reported revenues and diluted EPS rose materially over the cited quarters (fundamentals-0, fundamentals-1), quarterly net income increased (fundamentals-5), total assets expanded (fundamentals-4), and weighted shares outstanding have ticked down slightly (fundamentals-2, fundamentals-3), consistent with earnings growth on a stable share base. Market and valuation metrics align with that constructive picture: trailing P/FCF of 8.09 and P/E of 10.89 alongside TTM free cash flow of ~$16B (valuation-1, valuation-2, valuation-3) imply current price reflects relatively modest multiples versus reported cash generation. Investor interest and analyst activity bolster the read — multiple filings show institutional accumulation and a recent upgrade/price-target activity plus an independent DCF piece projecting a much higher intrinsic value (news-2, news-3, news-4, news-6, news-0, news-1). In rebuttal to the bear case, the model-implied negative FCF growth (valuation-0) appears driven by the pricing/assumption set used by that model rather than by the company’s reported multi-billion-dollar FCF; the low multiples and strong absolute FCF call for comparing that implied-growth output to historical cash-flow stability (valuation-5). Elevated short-term volatility (market-3) and mixed momentum (market-2) are market-characteristic signals but coexist with negative beta/low correlation to the S&P (market-4), which can be read as portfolio-differentiating behavior rather than company-specific deterioration.
Chair's verdict, claim by claim
Fragility · computed, not argued
balanced0.31
27 surviving claims rest on 15 distinct sources; the heaviest analyst carries 30% of them, and 98% of what the desk raised survived the debate.
The evidence set is moderately concentrated: 27 surviving claims draw on 15 distinct sources and a single analyst contributed about 30% of the claims, so a non-trivial share of the read depends on a few inputs and viewpoints. The very high survival rate from the desk debate (98%) indicates the claims faced little internal pushback, which raises confidence in consistency but does not remove the risk that a small number of sources or a dominant analyst perspective could bias the overall read.
Peer context · computed, not argued
12-1 momentum ranks 3rd of 3 in Insurance—Property & Casualty (as of 2026-09-02).
90-day volatility ranks 2nd of 3 in Insurance—Property & Casualty (as of 2026-09-02).
dividend yield ranks 1st of 3 in Insurance—Property & Casualty (as of 2026-09-02).
Disconfirming evidence · base rates · falsifiers
Context
Outside consensus, and where this name already sits in your own portfolio.
Third-party consensus shown for context. It never enters Moneyta sentiment — when the two diverge, the debate above is where the why lives.
What this was built from
Every figure on this page traces to one of these. The desk reads only what is listed here — no outside knowledge, no browsing — and each card shows who read it and what it contributed to the score.
15 filings· 2 cited
SEC XBRL filings
Quarterly figures as filed with the SEC, read straight from EDGAR's structured data — not retyped or estimated.
Read by Mercer+0.7 to the score
1 signal set
Moneyta signal set
Computed from our own end-of-day price history and ranked against the whole research universe. No AI involved.
Read by Nash+0.4 to the score
1 holdings record
Fund holdings
Which funds hold this name and at what weight, plus insider Form 4 filings.
Read by Ellis+0.0 to the score
8 headlines· 2 cited
News coverage
Recent headlines about this company, rating chatter excluded and nothing published after the report date.
Read by Yatesnothing survived
1 computation
Valuation inputs
TTM cash-flow figures from the company's own XBRL filings, priced with the stored closing price. Implied growth and multiples only; no fair-value dollar figure reaches the desk, by design.
Read by Archercontext only
1 record· 0 cited
Company profile
Sector, industry and company details.
1 record· 0 cited
Analyst consensus
Third-party consensus, shown for context only — it never enters Moneyta sentiment.
Read means we pulled and handed it to an analyst; cited means a claim on this page points at it. Reading twelve quarters to state one trend is normal — the gap is shown rather than hidden.
Written by AI, checked against sources
The analysts, the bull–bear debate and the editor's note are AI agents reading only the evidence listed on this page. They can misread a filing or a headline, which is why every claim cites a source you can open and check yourself. The sentiment score is arithmetic over the claims that survived the debate, not a language model's opinion.
Educational analysis of published data. Moneyta does not give investment advice or make recommendations. Past patterns do not indicate future results.
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The full terminal on PGR Gold
Who holds it, who's buying, what the Street thinks: live behind the lock, updated as filings land.
Institutional holders
Net institutional flow, Q/Q
Largest holder position
Insider buys, 90 days
Clustered insider value
Street target range
The real figures are for members. Educational analysis, not advice.
Educational analysis of published data. Moneyta does not give investment advice or make recommendations.