PKG
Packaging Corporation of AmericaEvidence as of 2026-09-03Overview · Packaging Corporation of America
Packaging Corporation of America manufactures and sells containerboard and corrugated packaging products in the United States. The company operates through Packaging and Paper segments. The Packaging segment offers various containerboard and corrugated packaging products, such as conventional shipping containers used to protect and transport manufactured goods; multi-color boxes and displays that help to merchandise…
Management team
- Prafulla D'Souza · Vice President of Marketing & Communications Corrugated ProductsFind on LinkedIn
- Mr. Kent A. Pflederer · Senior VP, General Counsel & SecretaryFind on LinkedIn
- Mr. Robert Andrew Schneider · Senior VP & Chief Information OfficerFind on LinkedIn
- Ms. Pamela A. Barnes · Senior VP of Finance, Controller & Principal Accounting OfficerFind on LinkedIn
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Links open LinkedIn searches, not verified profiles. Team data from our market-data vendor's company profile.
Moneyta sentiment
Where the published evidence leans after the desk debated it — not a rating or a recommendation.
+0.0 on a −2 to +2 scale — was +0.1 before the debate changed the read.
What builds the score
Solid bars are analyst rubric scores; faded bars are computed directly from data. Claims dropped in debate count for nothing; weakened claims count at half weight.
Editor's note
Written after the debate settled — the rest of the page is the evidence behind it.
The evidence balance is Mixed (+0.0 of a possible +2; confidence high). Revenue by quarter rose from $ 2,141,000,000 in the period 2025-01-01 to 2025-03-31 (Q1 2026) to $ 2,489,900,000 in the period 2026-04-01 to 2026-06-30 (Q2 2026). Gross profit and operating income show a pattern of fluctuation across the sampled quarters, with gross profit moving from $ 454,700,000 (Q1 2026) to $ 512,500,000 (Q2 2026) and operating income ranging from $ 251,300,000 (Q1 2026) to $ 333,700,000 (Q2 2025) before settling at $ 291,200,000 (Q2 2026).
Net income and diluted EPS declined from $ 226,900,000 and $ 2.51 in the period 2025-07-01 to 2025-09-30 (Q3 2025) to $ 170,900,000 and $ 1.91 in the period 2026-01-01 to 2026-03-31 (Q1 2026), then partially recovered to $ 192,100,000 and $ 2.15 in Q2 2026. Trailing twelve‑month free cash flow is reported at $ 707,300,000 (FCF per share $ 7.9472), with market multiples of P/FCF = 29.39, EV/EBITDA = 12.85, and P/E (TTM) = 25.27; under the stated discount and terminal assumptions, the current price implies an FCF growth rate of 18.62% per year, which would require material expansion of current cash flow levels.
How this note was made
every stage ran before the note was writtenAnalyst desk
Mercer, Oakes, Nash, Ellis, Yates, Talbot and Archer. The desk: named AI agents, not people. Each reads one slice of the evidence and nothing else — no outside knowledge, no browsing — so every finding traces to a source you can open.
Reads the XBRL figures companies file with the SEC — revenue, margins, income, debt and share count, quarter by quarter — and reports which way the trend is running.
Revenue by quarter rose from $2,141,000,000 in the period 2025-01-01 to 2025-03-31 (labelled in the filing as "Q1 2026 (2025-01-01 to 2025-03-31, 3mo)") to $2,489,900,000 in the period 2026-04-01 to 2026-06-30 ("Q2 2026 (2026-04-01 to 2026-06-30, 3mo)").
XBRL companyfacts · 0001193125-26-339405Gross profit was $454,700,000 in the period 2025-01-01 to 2025-03-31 (filed as "Q1 2026 (2025-01-01 to 2025-03-31, 3mo)"), moved to $483,000,000 in the period 2025-04-01 to 2025-06-30 ("Q2 2025 (2025-04-01 to 2025-06-30, 3mo)"), reached $504,300,000 in the period 2025-07-01 to 2025-09-30 ("Q3 2025 (2025-07-01 to 2025-09-30, 3mo)"), was $452,900,000 in the period 2026-01-01 to 2026-03-31 ("Q1 2026 (2026-01-01 to 2026-03-31, 3mo)"), and was $512,500,000 in the period 2026-04-01 to 2026-06-30 ("Q2 2026 (2026-04-01 to 2026-06-30, 3mo)").
XBRL companyfacts · 0001193125-26-339405Reads the filings themselves, above all the year-over-year diff of Item 1A risk factors: which risks a company added, dropped or quietly reworded since its last annual report.
Nothing in this slice of the evidence rose to a claim — a quiet read, which itself is information.
Which filings the desk reads
The desk reads the annual 10-K in full — its risk factors, and how they changed since last year. Quarterly 10-Qs and event filings (8-Ks, insider Form 4s) are listed for context but not read line by line: the 10-K is where the material risk disclosures live. A brand-new company, or one we have only just begun tracking, may have no annual report on file yet — its risk analysis fills in once that lands.
Reads the signal panel above — momentum, volatility, drawdown, relative strength and beta — and ranks each against the whole research universe rather than judging it in isolation.
As of 2026-09-02, beta versus SPY is 0.74 and correlation with SPY is 0.34, indicating lower systematic sensitivity and modest co-movement versus the index on this date.
Moneyta signal set · 2026-09-02Momentum metrics as of 2026-09-02 show 3-month momentum +4.8%, 6-month momentum +1.7% (40th percentile of the 547-stock research universe), and the 12_1 momentum measure +36.8% (73th percentile of 547).
Moneyta signal set · 2026-09-02weakened in debateReads which funds hold the name and at what weight, plus insider Form 4 filings, to show the exposure you may already carry through index funds.
As of 2026-09-02, the company is a constituent of the IVV ETF with a weight of 0.03% of that fund.
ETF constituents · market dataThe provided ETF membership data is timestamped 2026-09-02T13:45:47.228469+00:00 and no other ETF memberships are listed in the supplied evidence.
ETF constituents · market dataReads recent headlines that are genuinely about this company, ignoring rating chatter and market-wide stories. Findings argue in the debate but never move the sentiment score.
On 2 September 2026, the company announced a regular quarterly dividend of $1.50 per share to be paid to shareholders of record as listed in the filing.
News · finance.yahoo.com · 2026-09-02An article published 2 September 2026 notes the stock was down about 7% over the past month while its three-month total return remained slightly positive, framing recent price action as a pullback.
News · simplywall.st · 2026-09-02Reads parsed Forms 3/4/5 — who bought or sold, at what size, and whether a 10b5-1 plan was involved. Flags clustered open-market officer buying; treats plan sales as routine and never counts a fund or 10%-holder as an officer.
No insider transactions on file in the trailing 180 days.
Reads the implied-expectations math built from the company's own filings (the growth rate today's price would justify, and the multiples beside it) and argues whether the market's bar looks high or low for this business. Never turns the math into a target.
Under the stated discount and terminal assumptions, today's price implies a free cash flow (FCF) growth rate of 18.62% per year.
Valuation inputs · SEC XBRL + stored EOD closeTrailing twelve‑month metrics from the filings show FCF of $707,300,000 and FCF per share of $7.9472.
Valuation inputs · SEC XBRL + stored EOD closeDebate and risk review
A bull and a bear contest the claims and the chair rules on each; the risk review stress-tests what survived.
A bull and a bear argue the analysts' claims across two rounds, then a chair rules on each one. Only what survives feeds the score — the argument is shown, not hidden, so you can judge the reasoning yourself.
Several claims jointly support a favorable read: sequential revenue growth (fundamentals-0) accompanies expanding gross profit and a rebound in operating income (fundamentals-1, fundamentals-2), while diluted shares outstanding have edged lower (fundamentals-4) which can mechanically support per-share metrics. Market signals show constructive momentum and a bullish technical state (market-1, market-2), and recent corporate actions — a resumed/announced quarterly dividend (news-0) and multiple new institutional purchases (news-3, news-4, news-5) — indicate investor interest and income orientation. Valuation evidence (valuation-0, valuation-4) documents that the current price embeds relatively high FCF growth expectations, which aligns with sell-side buy-side coverage skewing positive in the provided consensus. These clustered data points form a cohesive favorable operational and market-read backdrop, while the acknowledged valuation premium and past earnings softness are visible counterweights.
Chair's verdict, claim by claim
Fragility · computed, not argued
balanced0.40
27 surviving claims rest on 10 distinct sources; the heaviest analyst carries 26% of them, and 98% of what the desk raised survived the debate.
The read rests on a relatively small set of distinct sources, so individual source revisions could shift multiple claims at once. One analyst contributed a sizeable share of the claims, which raises analyst‑dependence risk even though the debate left most points standing; the high survival rate means the desk did not find many internal contradictions, but the overall signal remains sensitive to a few documents (notably the recent 10‑Q) and market datapoints.
Peer context · computed, not argued
12-1 momentum ranks 1st of 2 in Packaging & Containers (as of 2026-09-02).
6-month relative strength ranks 1st of 2 in Packaging & Containers (as of 2026-09-02).
90-day volatility ranks 1st of 2 in Packaging & Containers (as of 2026-09-02).
dividend yield ranks 1st of 2 in Packaging & Containers (as of 2026-09-02).
Disconfirming evidence · base rates · falsifiers
Context
Outside consensus, and where this name already sits in your own portfolio.
Third-party consensus shown for context. It never enters Moneyta sentiment — when the two diverge, the debate above is where the why lives.
What this was built from
Every figure on this page traces to one of these. The desk reads only what is listed here — no outside knowledge, no browsing — and each card shows who read it and what it contributed to the score.
12 filings· 1 cited
SEC XBRL filings
Quarterly figures as filed with the SEC, read straight from EDGAR's structured data — not retyped or estimated.
Read by Mercer+0.3 to the score
1 signal set
Moneyta signal set
Computed from our own end-of-day price history and ranked against the whole research universe. No AI involved.
Read by Nash−0.2 to the score
1 holdings record
Fund holdings
Which funds hold this name and at what weight, plus insider Form 4 filings.
Read by Ellis+0.0 to the score
8 headlines· 2 cited
News coverage
Recent headlines about this company, rating chatter excluded and nothing published after the report date.
Read by Yatesnothing survived
1 computation
Valuation inputs
TTM cash-flow figures from the company's own XBRL filings, priced with the stored closing price. Implied growth and multiples only; no fair-value dollar figure reaches the desk, by design.
Read by Archercontext only
1 record· 0 cited
Company profile
Sector, industry and company details.
1 record· 0 cited
Analyst consensus
Third-party consensus, shown for context only — it never enters Moneyta sentiment.
Read means we pulled and handed it to an analyst; cited means a claim on this page points at it. Reading twelve quarters to state one trend is normal — the gap is shown rather than hidden.
Written by AI, checked against sources
The analysts, the bull–bear debate and the editor's note are AI agents reading only the evidence listed on this page. They can misread a filing or a headline, which is why every claim cites a source you can open and check yourself. The sentiment score is arithmetic over the claims that survived the debate, not a language model's opinion.
Educational analysis of published data. Moneyta does not give investment advice or make recommendations. Past patterns do not indicate future results.
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The full terminal on PKG Gold
Who holds it, who's buying, what the Street thinks: live behind the lock, updated as filings land.
Institutional holders
Net institutional flow, Q/Q
Largest holder position
Insider buys, 90 days
Clustered insider value
Street target range
The real figures are for members. Educational analysis, not advice.
Educational analysis of published data. Moneyta does not give investment advice or make recommendations.