PYPL
PayPal Holdings, Inc.Evidence as of 2026-10-09The desk's Snapshot
3 of 15 open to everyone · members see allRead the full desk report on PYPL
Seven analysts, the debate, the risk review, every claim cited. And the same for every name you hold.
Free plan, no credit card required. Silver opens the full report, $19.99 a month. AI-written · every claim cites a source · Insight, not advice.
Overview · PayPal Holdings, Inc.
PayPal Holdings, Inc. operates a technology platform that enables digital payments on behalf of merchants and consumers worldwide. The company provides payment solutions under the PayPal, PayPal Credit, Braintree, Venmo, Xoom, PayPal Zettle, Hyperwallet, PayPal Honey, and Paidy names. Its payments platform allows consumers to send and receive payments in approximately 200 markets and in approximately 150 currencies,…
Management team
- Mr. Frank Keller · Senior VP and GM of Large Enterprise & Merchant Platform GroupFind on LinkedIn
- Mr. Jonathan Saul Auerbach · AdviserFind on LinkedIn
- Ms. Peggy M. Alford · Executive Vice President of Global Sales & Merchant ServicesFind on LinkedIn
- Ms. Isabel Cruz · Executive VP & Chief People OfficerFind on LinkedIn
Start free to see the full management team.
Links open LinkedIn searches, not verified profiles. Team data from our market-data vendor's company profile.
Moneyta sentiment
Where the published evidence leans after the desk debated it, not a rating or a recommendation.
−0.5 on a −2 to +2 scale (was −0.4 before the debate changed the read).
What builds the score
Solid bars are analyst rubric scores; faded bars are computed directly from data. Claims dropped in debate count for nothing; weakened claims count at half weight.
Editor's note
Written after the debate settled. The rest of the page is the evidence behind it.
Cautious evidence balance (-0.5; confidence high) supports that revenues moved from $ 7,791,000,000 in fiscal Q1 2025 (period 2025-01-01 to 2025-03-31) to $ 8,353,000,000 in fiscal Q1 2026 (fiscal quarter ended 2026-04-29), with sequential reported revenues of $ 8,288,000,000 in Q2 2025 (fiscal quarter ended 2025-07-23), $ 8,417,000,000 in Q3 2025 (fiscal quarter ended 2025-10-22) and then $ 8,353,000,000 in Q1 2026. Operating income fell from $ 1,530,000,000 in fiscal Q1 2025 to $ 1,488,000,000 in fiscal Q1 2026, implying an operating margin decline from about 19.7% to about 17.8%, and net income declined from $ 1,287,000,000 to $ 1,113,000,000 over the same comparison.
The filings evidence adds expanded risk language in the 10‑K filed 3 February 2026 on cybersecurity, cryptocurrency and stablecoin exposure (including PYUSD), AI and emerging-technology risks, and broader regulatory/licensing oversight. Market and valuation signals in the surviving claims show mixed market momentum (six‑month +19.7% versus 12‑month −23.3%), a golden cross in place, elevated short‑term volatility (30‑day annualized 48.9%), trailing multiples around P/FCF ~ 11x and EV/EBITDA ~ 7.4x, cash of $ 6,977,000,000 and long‑term debt of $ 10,876,000,000 implying roughly $ 3.9 billion net debt, and reported share repurchases of $ 1,500,000,000 in the quarters ended 2025-03-31 and 2026-03-31.
How this note was made
every stage ran before the note was writtenAnalyst desk
Mercer, Oakes, Nash, Ellis, Yates, Talbot and Archer. The desk: named AI agents, not people. Each reads one slice of the evidence and nothing else (no outside knowledge, no browsing), so every finding traces to a source you can open.
Reads the XBRL figures companies file with the SEC (revenue, margins, income, debt and share count, quarter by quarter) and reports which way the trend is running.
Reported revenues were $7,791,000,000 for fiscal Q1 2025 (period 2025-01-01 to 2025-03-31) and $8,353,000,000 for fiscal Q1 2026 (period 2026-01-01 to 2026-03-31).
XBRL companyfacts · 0001633917-26-000067Sequential quarterly revenues in the 2025 periods shown moved from $8,288,000,000 in fiscal Q2 2025 (2025-04-01 to 2025-06-30) to $8,417,000,000 in fiscal Q3 2025 (2025-07-01 to 2025-09-30) and then to $8,353,000,000 in fiscal Q1 2026 (2026-01-01 to 2026-03-31).
XBRL companyfacts · 0001633917-25-000161Reads the filings themselves, above all the year-over-year diff of Item 1A risk factors: which risks a company added, dropped or quietly reworded since its last annual report.
Which filings the desk reads
The desk reads the annual 10-K in full: its risk factors, and how they changed since last year. Quarterly 10-Qs and event filings (8-Ks, insider Form 4s) are listed for context but not read line by line: the 10-K is where the material risk disclosures live. A brand-new company, or one we have only just begun tracking, may have no annual report on file yet; its risk analysis fills in once that lands.
The 10-K filed 3 February 2026 adds materially expanded risk language about cybersecurity incidents, including cyberattacks, data security breaches affecting customers/partners/vendors and business interruptions from DDoS, insider threats, hardware/software defects, natural disasters and other causes.
Item 1A risk-factor diff · 0001633917-26-000024 vs 0001633917-25-000019The 10-K filed 3 February 2026 adds or materially rewords multiple cryptocurrency- and stablecoin-related risks, including disclosure about PYUSD and the PYUSD Issuer, custody/custodian counterparty risk for digital assets, regulatory supervision of PayPalPte. Ltd. by the Monetary Authority of Singapore, and the potential for additional regulation or licensing obligations tied to customer cryptocurrency offerings.
Item 1A risk-factor diff · 0001633917-26-000024 vs 0001633917-25-000019Reads the signal panel above (momentum, volatility, drawdown, relative strength and beta) and ranks each against the whole research universe rather than judging it in isolation.
Momentum over the prior 6 months was +19.7% and ranks in the 79th percentile of the 881‑company research universe, while 3‑month momentum was +18.8%.
Moneyta signal set · 2026-10-08weakened in debateThe 12‑1 momentum metric is -23.3% and ranks in the 14th percentile of the research universe, indicating weaker longer‑term relative momentum over the past year.
Moneyta signal set · 2026-10-08weakened in debateReads which funds hold the name and at what weight, plus insider Form 4 filings, to show the exposure you may already carry through index funds.
13F-reported institutional holdings totaled "$32.41B" as of 2026-06-30, with 1,407 institutional holders and a net holder_count_delta_qoq of -116 versus the prior reported quarter.
13F holdings · 1407 filers · as of 2026-06-30Among reported institutional holders for the 2026-06-30 13F period, BlackRock, Inc. held "$3.24B" and VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC held "$2.32B"; the 13F dataset shows total reported value qoq change of -6.9% and exited_positions of 224.
13F holdings · 1407 filers · as of 2026-06-30Reads recent headlines that are genuinely about this company, ignoring rating chatter and market-wide stories. Findings argue in the debate but never move the sentiment score.
Recent headlines exist but none are company-specific — market-wide stories and rating chatter are excluded.
Reads parsed Forms 3/4/5: who bought or sold, at what size, and whether a 10b5-1 plan was involved. Flags clustered open-market officer buying; treats plan sales as routine and never counts a fund or 10%-holder as an officer.
Jamie S. Miller (Chief Fin & Op Officer) reported a sale of "6129" shares for a value of "$331k" on 2026-09-15.
Form 4 · Miller Jamie S (Chief Fin & Op Officer) · $0 code M · 2026-09-15Jamie S. Miller reported a sale of "3785" shares for a value of "$199k" on 2026-09-01.
Form 4 · Miller Jamie S (Chief Fin & Op Officer) · $0 code M · 2026-09-01Reads the implied-expectations math built from the company's own filings (the growth rate today's price would justify, and the multiples beside it) and argues whether the market's bar looks high or low for this business. Never turns the math into a target.
The model reports an implied free cash flow growth rate of -4.97% (the FCF growth rate today's price would justify under the stated discount and terminal assumptions).
Valuation inputs · SEC XBRL + stored EOD closeTrailing twelve-month valuation multiples in the evidence are: price-to-earnings (P/E) 10.81, price-to-free-cash-flow (P/FCF) 10.93, and enterprise-value-to-EBITDA (EV/EBITDA) 7.43, with enterprise value reported as $52,432,444,225 and market capitalization $48,533,444,225 as of the price date 2026-10-08.
Valuation inputs · SEC XBRL + stored EOD closeDebate and risk review
A bull and a bear contest the claims and the chair rules on each; the risk review stress-tests what survived.
A bull and a bear argue the analysts' claims across two rounds, then a chair rules on each one. Only what survives feeds the score. The argument is shown, not hidden, so you can judge the reasoning yourself.
Several claims jointly support a favorable read: top-line growth is present year-over-year while share count is materially falling via consistent repurchases, which lifts per‑share metrics; trailing FCF and modest valuation multiples (P/FCF ~11x, EV/EBITDA ~7.4x) imply current price embeds modest expectations relative to reported free cash flow; medium‑term market momentum and continued inclusion in large ETFs and institutional portfolios signal investor appetite and liquidity. The cash vs. long‑term debt profile (cash roughly $7.0B vs. long‑term debt ~$10.9B) produces a manageable net debt position relative to trailing FCF, supporting the stance that cash generation can be meaningful on a per‑share basis as the share base declines. In response to bearish points about margin and net income declines, the operating margin reduction is modest in absolute percentage terms while revenue increased, and the company’s active repurchase program and steady trailing FCF strengthen a per‑share cash generation narrative. Expanded risk disclosure in the 10‑K (cybersecurity, crypto, AI, licensing) reflects broader regulatory and technology topics being documented rather than new realized losses in the evidence set; those filings increase transparency but do not, in the provided claims, quantify operational damage. Lastly, the model’s implied negative FCF growth claim should be weighed against the observed trailing FCF level, share repurchases, and moderate valuation multiples rather than taken as a sole determinant of company trajectory.
Chair's verdict, claim by claim
Fragility · computed, not argued
balanced0.33
34 surviving claims rest on 16 distinct sources; the heaviest analyst carries 21% of them, and 97% of what the desk raised survived the debate.
The read has moderate breadth (16 distinct sources) which helps support cross-checked facts, but a single analyst carrying 21% of surviving claims and a 97% survival rate through debate indicate the set may be overweighted toward a few voices and under‑stressed by contrary views. In short, the evidence base is usable for informational analysis but carries fragility from analyst concentration and low pushback during the review — treat individual claims as informational signals rather than definitive conclusions.
Peer context · computed, not argued
12-1 momentum ranks 6th of 8 in Credit Services (as of 2026-10-08).
6-month relative strength ranks 2nd of 8 in Credit Services (as of 2026-10-08).
90-day volatility ranks 3rd of 8 in Credit Services (as of 2026-10-08).
dividend yield ranks 4th of 8 in Credit Services (as of 2026-10-08).
Disconfirming evidence · base rates · falsifiers
Context
Outside consensus, and where this name already sits in your own portfolio.
Third-party consensus shown for context. It never enters Moneyta sentiment. When the two diverge, the debate above is where the why lives.
What this was built from
Every figure on this page traces to one of these. The desk reads only what is listed here (no outside knowledge, no browsing), and each card shows who read it and what it contributed to the score.
10 filings· 3 cited
SEC XBRL filings
Quarterly figures as filed with the SEC, read straight from EDGAR's structured data, not retyped or estimated.
Read by Mercer+0.1 to the score
12 documents· 1 cited
SEC filing documents
The filings themselves, including the year-over-year comparison of Item 1A risk factors.
Read by Oakes−0.8 to the score
1 signal set
Moneyta signal set
Computed from our own end-of-day price history and ranked against the whole research universe. No AI involved.
Read by Nash−0.3 to the score
3 holdings records· 1 cited
Fund holdings
Which funds hold this name and at what weight, plus insider Form 4 filings.
Read by Ellis+0.8 to the score
9 filings· 2 cited
Insider filings
Parsed Forms 3/4/5 from EDGAR: named insiders, share counts, prices, and 10b5-1 plan state, with stated and inferred flags kept apart.
Read by Talbot−0.5 to the score
1 computation
Valuation inputs
TTM cash-flow figures from the company's own XBRL filings, priced with the stored closing price. Implied growth and multiples only; no fair-value dollar figure reaches the desk, by design.
Read by Archercontext only
1 record· 0 cited
Company profile
Sector, industry and company details.
1 record· 0 cited
Analyst consensus
Third-party consensus, shown for context only; it never enters Moneyta sentiment.
Read means we pulled and handed it to an analyst; cited means a claim on this page points at it. Reading twelve quarters to state one trend is normal; the gap is shown rather than hidden.
Written by AI, checked against sources
The analysts, the bull–bear debate and the editor's note are AI agents reading only the evidence listed on this page. They can misread a filing or a headline, which is why every claim cites a source you can open and check yourself. The sentiment score is arithmetic over the claims that survived the debate, not a language model's opinion.
Educational analysis of published data. Moneyta does not give investment advice or make recommendations. Past patterns do not indicate future results.
The full terminal on PYPL Gold
Who holds it, who's buying, what the Street thinks: live behind the lock, updated as filings land.
Institutional holders
Net institutional flow, Q/Q
Largest holder position
Insider buys, 90 days
Clustered insider value
Street target range
The real figures are for members. Educational analysis, not advice.
Get this for the names you actually hold
Every name in your portfolio, researched the same way, plus the one thing no sample can show: how each one sits inside what you already own.
Educational analysis of published data. Moneyta does not give investment advice or make recommendations.