SJM
The J. M. Smucker CompanyEvidence as of 2026-09-02Moneyta sentiment
Where the published evidence leans after the desk debated it — not a rating or a recommendation.
+0.1 on a −2 to +2 scale.
What builds the score
Solid bars are analyst rubric scores; faded bars are computed directly from data. Claims dropped in debate count for nothing; weakened claims count at half weight.
Editor's note
Written after the debate settled — the rest of the page is the evidence behind it.
The desk rates the evidence balance as Mixed (+ 0.1 of a possible + 2; the score was + 0.1 before the debate). Reported diluted EPS swung from - $0.41 in the quarter ended 31 July 2025 to $ 3.03 in the quarter ended 31 July 2026, and single‑quarter net income moved from - $43,900,000 for the quarter ended 31 July 2025 to $324,300,000 for the quarter ended 31 July 2026, with a deep interim loss of - $724,200,000 in the quarter ended 31 January 2026. Gross profit shows an upward pattern across the sampled periods — $474,700,000 (quarter ended 31 July 2025), $869,900,000 (31 October 2025), $827,800,000 (31 January 2026) and $979,600,000 (31 July 2026) — while operating income was volatile over those same quarters.
Balance‑sheet and market facts are also on record: long‑term debt fell roughly $492,000,000 from $7,036,800,000 as of 30 April 2025 to $6,544,300,000 as of 31 July 2026; shares outstanding were essentially flat (a net increase of ~406,562 shares from 20 February 2025 to 19 August 2026); three‑month momentum is + 30.8% and price is above both moving averages (+ 10.9% vs the 50‑day and + 24.5% vs the 200‑day) with a golden cross present.
How this note was made
every stage ran before the note was writtenAnalyst desk
Mercer, Oakes, Nash, Ellis, Yates, Talbot and Archer. The desk: named AI agents, not people. Each reads one slice of the evidence and nothing else — no outside knowledge, no browsing — so every finding traces to a source you can open.
Reads the XBRL figures companies file with the SEC — revenue, margins, income, debt and share count, quarter by quarter — and reports which way the trend is running.
Reported diluted EPS swung from -$0.41 in the quarter ended 31 July 2025 to $3.03 in the quarter ended 31 July 2026.
XBRL companyfacts · 0000091419-26-000080Net income (single-quarter) moved from -$43,900,000 for the quarter ended 31 July 2025 to $324,300,000 for the quarter ended 31 July 2026, with a deep negative of -$724,200,000 in the quarter ended 31 January 2026 in between.
XBRL companyfacts · 0000091419-26-000080Reads the filings themselves, above all the year-over-year diff of Item 1A risk factors: which risks a company added, dropped or quietly reworded since its last annual report.
Which filings the desk reads
The desk reads the annual 10-K in full — its risk factors, and how they changed since last year. Quarterly 10-Qs and event filings (8-Ks, insider Form 4s) are listed for context but not read line by line: the 10-K is where the material risk disclosures live. A brand-new company, or one we have only just begun tracking, may have no annual report on file yet — its risk analysis fills in once that lands.
In the three months ended July 31, 2026 (fiscal Q1 2027), net sales were $2,219.3 million, a 5% increase versus $2,113.3 million in the three months ended July 31, 2025.
10-Q filed 2026-08-26In the three months ended July 31, 2026 (fiscal Q1 2027), gross profit was $979.6 million (44.1% of net sales) versus $474.7 million (22.5% of net sales) in the three months ended July 31, 2025, and operating income was $511.6 million (23.1% of net sales) versus $45.6 million (2.2% of net sales) in the prior-year period.
10-Q filed 2026-08-26Reads the signal panel above — momentum, volatility, drawdown, relative strength and beta — and ranks each against the whole research universe rather than judging it in isolation.
Three-month momentum is +30.8% and six-month momentum is +18.3%, with the six-month momentum at the 77th percentile of the 547-stock research universe as of 2026-09-01.
Moneyta signal set · 2026-09-01weakened in debatePrice is above both moving averages: price is +10.9% versus the 50-day simple moving average and +24.5% versus the 200-day simple moving average, and a golden cross is present with the crossover age of 49 days.
Moneyta signal set · 2026-09-01Reads which funds hold the name and at what weight, plus insider Form 4 filings, to show the exposure you may already carry through index funds.
As of 2026-09-02T13:45:47.228469+00:00, SJM was a component of the IVV ETF with a weight of 0.02% of that fund.
ETF constituents · market dataA Form 4 filing for SJM with the 4 filed 31 August 2026 was filed on 2026-08-31 and is marked with parse_status "pending".
Form 4 × 1 (90d window not enforced here)Reads recent headlines that are genuinely about this company, ignoring rating chatter and market-wide stories. Findings argue in the debate but never move the sentiment score.
Coverage includes a company-specific story that frames recent results as an earnings rebound and describes a raised profit outlook, citing first-quarter results to 31 July 2026 with sales of $2,219.3 million and net income of $324.3 million versus a prior-year net loss of $43.9 million.
News · simplywall.st · 2026-09-01Several pieces report on changes or affirmations in analyst coverage and price targets for J. M. Smucker, signaling media attention to recent analyst-rating activity rather than a single market theme.
News · thelincolnianonline.com · 2026-09-01Reads parsed Forms 3/4/5 — who bought or sold, at what size, and whether a 10b5-1 plan was involved. Flags clustered open-market officer buying; treats plan sales as routine and never counts a fund or 10%-holder as an officer.
Marshall Tucker H (Chief Financial Officer) reported a sale of 7,389 shares valued at "$977k" on 2026-08-28.
Form 4 · Marshall Tucker H (Chief Financial Officer) · $805k code M · 2026-08-28Marshall Tucker H (Chief Financial Officer) reported a sale of 11,093 shares valued at "$1.5M" on 2026-08-28.
Form 4 · Marshall Tucker H (Chief Financial Officer) · $805k code M · 2026-08-28Reads the implied-expectations math built from the company's own filings (the growth rate today's price would justify, and the multiples beside it) and argues whether the market's bar looks high or low for this business. Never turns the math into a target.
The model shows an implied free cash flow (FCF) growth rate of 26.21% that today's price would justify under the stated discount and terminal assumptions.
Valuation inputs · SEC XBRL + stored EOD closePrice to trailing‑12‑month FCF is 39.15, implying the market price reflects many years of FCF at current levels or higher growth expectations.
Valuation inputs · SEC XBRL + stored EOD closeDebate and risk review
A bull and a bear contest the claims and the chair rules on each; the risk review stress-tests what survived.
A bull and a bear argue the analysts' claims across two rounds, then a chair rules on each one. Only what survives feeds the score — the argument is shown, not hidden, so you can judge the reasoning yourself.
Several company-reported items show a substantial operational rebound: diluted EPS swung from -$0.41 to $3.03 (fundamentals-0) alongside quarter-over-quarter gross profit expansion to $979.6M (fundamentals-2 / filings-1) and a return to positive operating income of $511.6M in the latest quarter (fundamentals-3 / filings-1). Net sales growth of 5% year-over-year for the quarter (filings-0) and management commentary attributing most of the sales gain to net price realization and some volume/mix (filings-2) provide a plausible driver for margin recovery. The company’s reduction in long-term debt by roughly $492M year-over-year (fundamentals-4) combined with trailing‑12‑month FCF of $359.2M (valuation-2) supports an evidence-backed case that cash generation and balance-sheet repair accompanied the earnings rebound. Market signals — strong short- and medium-term momentum and price above both the 50- and 200-day moving averages with a recent golden cross (market-0, market-1) — corroborate that the market is currently pricing in the operational improvement; several news items also frame this as an earnings rebound (news-0, news-3).
Chair's verdict, claim by claim
Fragility · computed, not argued
balanced0.36
33 surviving claims rest on 13 distinct sources; the heaviest analyst carries 18% of them, and 98% of what the desk raised survived the debate.
The evidence set rests on a moderate number of distinct sources (13) supporting a fairly large bundle of claims (33), which gives some breadth but also concentrates many claims per source. The single heaviest analyst carrying 18% of surviving claims and a 98% survival rate from desk debate suggest low internal contention — useful for clarity but raising the possibility of confirmation persistence, so treat the bundle as informational but potentially brittle to new, high-quality contradictory filings or market moves.
Peer context · computed, not argued
12-1 momentum ranks 1st of 4 in Packaged Foods (as of 2026-09-01).
90-day volatility ranks 1st of 4 in Packaged Foods (as of 2026-09-01).
dividend yield ranks 4th of 4 in Packaged Foods (as of 2026-09-01).
Disconfirming evidence · base rates · falsifiers
Context
Outside consensus, and where this name already sits in your own portfolio.
Third-party consensus shown for context. It never enters Moneyta sentiment — when the two diverge, the debate above is where the why lives.
What this was built from
Every figure on this page traces to one of these. The desk reads only what is listed here — no outside knowledge, no browsing — and each card shows who read it and what it contributed to the score.
16 filings· 1 cited
SEC XBRL filings
Quarterly figures as filed with the SEC, read straight from EDGAR's structured data — not retyped or estimated.
Read by Mercer+0.5 to the score
6 documents· 2 cited
SEC filing documents
The filings themselves, including the year-over-year comparison of Item 1A risk factors.
Read by Oakes+0.8 to the score
1 signal set
Moneyta signal set
Computed from our own end-of-day price history and ranked against the whole research universe. No AI involved.
Read by Nash−0.3 to the score
2 holdings records
Fund holdings
Which funds hold this name and at what weight, plus insider Form 4 filings.
Read by Ellis+0.0 to the score
3 headlines· 2 cited
News coverage
Recent headlines about this company, rating chatter excluded and nothing published after the report date.
Read by Yatesnothing survived
1 filing
Insider filings
Parsed Forms 3/4/5 from EDGAR: named insiders, share counts, prices, and 10b5-1 plan state — stated and inferred flags kept apart.
Read by Talbot−0.6 to the score
1 computation
Valuation inputs
TTM cash-flow figures from the company's own XBRL filings, priced with the stored closing price. Implied growth and multiples only; no fair-value dollar figure reaches the desk, by design.
Read by Archercontext only
1 record· 0 cited
Company profile
Sector, industry and company details.
1 record· 0 cited
Analyst consensus
Third-party consensus, shown for context only — it never enters Moneyta sentiment.
Read means we pulled and handed it to an analyst; cited means a claim on this page points at it. Reading twelve quarters to state one trend is normal — the gap is shown rather than hidden.
Written by AI, checked against sources
The analysts, the bull–bear debate and the editor's note are AI agents reading only the evidence listed on this page. They can misread a filing or a headline, which is why every claim cites a source you can open and check yourself. The sentiment score is arithmetic over the claims that survived the debate, not a language model's opinion.
Educational analysis of published data. Moneyta does not give investment advice or make recommendations. Past patterns do not indicate future results.
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The full terminal on SJM Gold
Who holds it, who's buying, what the Street thinks: live behind the lock, updated as filings land.
Institutional holders
Net institutional flow, Q/Q
Largest holder position
Insider buys, 90 days
Clustered insider value
Street target range
The real figures are for members. Educational analysis, not advice.
Educational analysis of published data. Moneyta does not give investment advice or make recommendations.