SJM
The J. M. Smucker CompanyEvidence as of 2026-10-06The desk's Snapshot
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Overview · The J. M. Smucker Company
The J. M. Smucker Company manufactures and markets branded food and beverage products worldwide. It operates in three segments: U.S. Retail Pet Foods, U.S. Retail Coffee, and U.S. Retail Consumer Foods. The company offers mainstream roast, ground, single serve, and premium coffee; peanut butter and specialty spreads; fruit spreads, shortening and oils, and frozen sandwiches and snacks; pet food and pet snacks; and fo…
Management team
- Mr. Douglas Guilherme · Senior Vice President of Operations and Supply ChainFind on LinkedIn
- Ms. Katherine Williams · Chief Marketing OfficerFind on LinkedIn
- Mr. Robert D. Ferguson · Chief Product Supply Officer and Executive VP of Coffee, Pet & Away from HomeFind on LinkedIn
- Ms. Jeannette L. Knudsen J.D. · Chief Legal Officer & SecretaryFind on LinkedIn
Start free to see the full management team.
Links open LinkedIn searches, not verified profiles. Team data from our market-data vendor's company profile.
Moneyta sentiment
Where the published evidence leans after the desk debated it, not a rating or a recommendation.
−0.5 on a −2 to +2 scale.
What builds the score
Solid bars are analyst rubric scores; faded bars are computed directly from data. Claims dropped in debate count for nothing; weakened claims count at half weight.
Editor's note
Written after the debate settled. The rest of the page is the evidence behind it.
Evidence balance: Cautious ( - 0.5 of a possible + 2; confidence high ). The company’s reported common shares outstanding moved to 106,823,183 shares as of 19 August 2026 from 106,694,327 shares as of 18 November 2025, a small net increase. Quarterly results show large swings: net income by quarter ranged from - $724,200,000 (1 November 2025 to 31 January 2026) to $324,300,000 (1 May 2026 to 31 July 2026), while gross profit rose to $979,600,000 for the quarter 1 May 2026 to 31 July 2026 and operating income swung between - $548,400,000 and $418,500,000 across single quarters.
Balance-sheet and financing items include a reduction in reported long‑term debt from $7,039,800,000 (as of 31 October 2025) to about $6,544,300,000 (as of 31 July 2026) and a reported $7.0 billion of short‑term borrowings and long‑term debt outstanding as of April 30, 2026. Share repurchases in the three‑month periods were small ( $4,600,000 and $5,700,000). Market signals show momentum + 23.4% over six months, price + 7.7% above the 200‑day SMA but - 5.1% below the 50‑day SMA with a golden cross aged 72 days, and a trailing twelve‑month dividend yield of + 2.84%. Ownership filings show $10.47B of 13F‑reported institutional holdings as of 2026-06-30 and heavy customer concentration with Walmart accounting for 34 percent of net sales in FY 2026 and representing $187.4 million (29 percent) of trade receivables net as of April 30, 2026.
How this note was made
every stage ran before the note was writtenAnalyst desk
Mercer, Oakes, Nash, Ellis, Yates, Talbot and Archer. The desk: named AI agents, not people. Each reads one slice of the evidence and nothing else (no outside knowledge, no browsing), so every finding traces to a source you can open.
Reads the XBRL figures companies file with the SEC (revenue, margins, income, debt and share count, quarter by quarter) and reports which way the trend is running.
Reported common shares outstanding moved from 106,694,327 shares as of 18 November 2025 to 106,648,319 shares as of 19 February 2026, 106,662,133 shares as of 2 June 2026, and 106,823,183 shares as of 19 August 2026, showing a small net increase to 106,823,183 shares.
XBRL companyfacts · 0000091419-25-000106Quarterly net income (3-month periods) was -$43,900,000 for the period 1 May 2025 to 31 July 2025, $241,300,000 for 1 August 2025 to 31 October 2025, -$724,200,000 for 1 November 2025 to 31 January 2026, and $324,300,000 for 1 May 2026 to 31 July 2026, indicating large quarter-to-quarter swings in reported profit and loss.
XBRL companyfacts · 0000091419-26-000080Reads the filings themselves, above all the year-over-year diff of Item 1A risk factors: which risks a company added, dropped or quietly reworded since its last annual report.
Which filings the desk reads
The desk reads the annual 10-K in full: its risk factors, and how they changed since last year. Quarterly 10-Qs and event filings (8-Ks, insider Form 4s) are listed for context but not read line by line: the 10-K is where the material risk disclosures live. A brand-new company, or one we have only just begun tracking, may have no annual report on file yet; its risk analysis fills in once that lands.
During the third quarter of 2026 (as described in the 10-K filed 9 June 2026), the company recorded total pre-tax impairment charges of $961.7 million, of which $507.5 million related to goodwill of the Sweet Baked Snacks reporting unit and $454.2 million related to the Hostess brand indefinite‑lived trademark.
Item 1A risk-factor diff · 0000091419-26-000050 vs 0000091419-25-000056As of April 30, 2026 (reported in the 10-K filed 9 June 2026), the company had $7.0 billion of short‑term borrowings and long‑term debt outstanding.
Item 1A risk-factor diff · 0000091419-26-000050 vs 0000091419-25-000056Reads the signal panel above (momentum, volatility, drawdown, relative strength and beta) and ranks each against the whole research universe rather than judging it in isolation.
Momentum over the past 6 months is +23.4% and ranks in the 77th percentile of the 765-stock research universe on 2026-10-05.
Moneyta signal set · 2026-10-05weakened in debatePrice is 7.7% above the 200-day simple moving average but 5.1% below the 50-day simple moving average; a golden cross is present and the crossover age is 72 days.
Moneyta signal set · 2026-10-05Reads which funds hold the name and at what weight, plus insider Form 4 filings, to show the exposure you may already carry through index funds.
Institutional 13F-reported holdings totaled "$10.47B" as of 2026-06-30, with 893 institutional holders reported and a net increase of 71 holders quarter-over-quarter.
13F holdings · 893 filers · as of 2026-06-30The top five 13F-reported institutional holders as of 2026-06-30 include BlackRock, Inc. ($831.4M), VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC ($764.4M), STATE STREET CORP ($739.5M), VANGUARD PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT LLC ($555.0M), and DIMENSIONAL FUND ADVISORS LP ($516.6M).
13F holdings · 893 filers · as of 2026-06-30Reads recent headlines that are genuinely about this company, ignoring rating chatter and market-wide stories. Findings argue in the debate but never move the sentiment score.
Coverage this week highlights new product activity including a seasonal fall lineup across Hostess, Milk-Bone and Uncrustables and a separate new coffee launch referenced in headlines.
News · simplywall.st · 2026-10-03One headline notes falling unit sales as a focal point of investor reaction.
News · simplywall.st · 2026-10-03Reads parsed Forms 3/4/5: who bought or sold, at what size, and whether a 10b5-1 plan was involved. Flags clustered open-market officer buying; treats plan sales as routine and never counts a fund or 10%-holder as an officer.
Mark T. Smucker (CEO, Chair of Board) reported a sale of 84,821 shares for "$11.1M" on 2026-08-31; the same filing also shows a separate "code M" entry for 84,821 shares valued at "$9.2M" in that transaction record.
Form 4 · SMUCKER MARK T (CEO, Chair of Board) · $9.2M code M · 2026-08-31Tucker H. Marshall (Chief Financial Officer) reported two sale transactions on 2026-08-28: 7,389 shares for "$977k" and 11,093 shares for "$1.5M"; the same filing includes "code M" entries for 7,389 shares ("$805k") and 11,093 shares ("$1.4M").
Form 4 · Marshall Tucker H (Chief Financial Officer) · $805k code M · 2026-08-28Reads the implied-expectations math built from the company's own filings (the growth rate today's price would justify, and the multiples beside it) and argues whether the market's bar looks high or low for this business. Never turns the math into a target.
The implied free-cash-flow (FCF) growth rate that today's price would justify under the stated discount and terminal assumptions is 22.91% (0.2291).
Valuation inputs · SEC XBRL + stored EOD closePrice-to-FCF (price / FCF TTM) is 34.62.
Valuation inputs · SEC XBRL + stored EOD closeDebate and risk review
A bull and a bear contest the claims and the chair rules on each; the risk review stress-tests what survived.
A bull and a bear argue the analysts' claims across two rounds, then a chair rules on each one. Only what survives feeds the score. The argument is shown, not hidden, so you can judge the reasoning yourself.
Several claims jointly support a favorable read: quarter-level gross profit is higher in the most recent period (fundamentals-2) and trailing twelve-month free cash flow and operating income are positive (valuation-3, valuation-5), which together indicate operational cash generation despite headline charges. Reported long-term debt has declined over the reported balance dates (fundamentals-4), reducing leverage exposure from the earlier reported level; institutional ownership increased and large managers hold meaningful positions (ownership-0, ownership-1), which is consistent with persistent investor interest. Market technicals show meaningful momentum over six months and a bullish moving-average configuration (market-0, market-1), which market participants often view as supportive of continued investor attention. The supporting evidence is generally direct company-reported figures (strong strength for fundamentals-2, fundamentals-4, valuation-3, valuation-5) and observable market-data signals (moderate-to-strong strength for market-0 and market-1).
Chair's verdict, claim by claim
Fragility · computed, not argued
balanced0.35
37 surviving claims rest on 16 distinct sources; the heaviest analyst carries 19% of them, and 97% of what the desk raised survived the debate.
The evidence set rests on a moderate breadth of sources but a small number of analysts contribute a sizable share of claims; that elevates dependence on key contributors. Nearly all desk points survived review, which increases confidence in internal consistency, yet source concentration and analyst-weighting mean a single major filing or a change from a top analyst could materially alter the read.
Peer context · computed, not argued
12-1 momentum ranks 1st of 7 in Packaged Foods (as of 2026-10-05).
90-day volatility ranks 4th of 7 in Packaged Foods (as of 2026-10-05).
dividend yield ranks 6th of 7 in Packaged Foods (as of 2026-10-05).
Disconfirming evidence · base rates · falsifiers
Context
Outside consensus, and where this name already sits in your own portfolio.
Third-party consensus shown for context. It never enters Moneyta sentiment. When the two diverge, the debate above is where the why lives.
What this was built from
Every figure on this page traces to one of these. The desk reads only what is listed here (no outside knowledge, no browsing), and each card shows who read it and what it contributed to the score.
10 filings· 3 cited
SEC XBRL filings
Quarterly figures as filed with the SEC, read straight from EDGAR's structured data, not retyped or estimated.
Read by Mercer+0.2 to the score
13 documents· 2 cited
SEC filing documents
The filings themselves, including the year-over-year comparison of Item 1A risk factors.
Read by Oakes−1.0 to the score
1 signal set
Moneyta signal set
Computed from our own end-of-day price history and ranked against the whole research universe. No AI involved.
Read by Nash+0.3 to the score
3 holdings records· 1 cited
Fund holdings
Which funds hold this name and at what weight, plus insider Form 4 filings.
Read by Ellis+0.4 to the score
3 headlines· 1 cited
News coverage
Recent headlines about this company, rating chatter excluded and nothing published after the report date.
Read by Yatesnothing survived
5 filings· 2 cited
Insider filings
Parsed Forms 3/4/5 from EDGAR: named insiders, share counts, prices, and 10b5-1 plan state, with stated and inferred flags kept apart.
Read by Talbot−0.8 to the score
1 computation
Valuation inputs
TTM cash-flow figures from the company's own XBRL filings, priced with the stored closing price. Implied growth and multiples only; no fair-value dollar figure reaches the desk, by design.
Read by Archercontext only
1 record· 0 cited
Company profile
Sector, industry and company details.
1 record· 0 cited
Analyst consensus
Third-party consensus, shown for context only; it never enters Moneyta sentiment.
Read means we pulled and handed it to an analyst; cited means a claim on this page points at it. Reading twelve quarters to state one trend is normal; the gap is shown rather than hidden.
Written by AI, checked against sources
The analysts, the bull–bear debate and the editor's note are AI agents reading only the evidence listed on this page. They can misread a filing or a headline, which is why every claim cites a source you can open and check yourself. The sentiment score is arithmetic over the claims that survived the debate, not a language model's opinion.
Educational analysis of published data. Moneyta does not give investment advice or make recommendations. Past patterns do not indicate future results.
The full terminal on SJM Gold
Who holds it, who's buying, what the Street thinks: live behind the lock, updated as filings land.
Institutional holders
Net institutional flow, Q/Q
Largest holder position
Insider buys, 90 days
Clustered insider value
Street target range
The real figures are for members. Educational analysis, not advice.
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Educational analysis of published data. Moneyta does not give investment advice or make recommendations.