SMCI
Super Micro Computer, Inc.Evidence as of 2026-09-02Moneyta sentiment
Where the published evidence leans after the desk debated it — not a rating or a recommendation.
−0.2 on a −2 to +2 scale.
What builds the score
Solid bars are analyst rubric scores; faded bars are computed directly from data. Claims dropped in debate count for nothing; weakened claims count at half weight.
Editor's note
Written after the debate settled — the rest of the page is the evidence behind it.
The evidence balance is Mixed ( -0.2 of a possible +2; was -0.2 before debate) · confidence high. Revenue reported for the most recent quarters shows Q2 2026 (fiscal quarter ended 2026-01-31) at $ 12,682,491,000 and Q3 2026 (fiscal quarter ended 2026-04-30) at $ 10,243,014,000, a quarter‑to‑quarter decline of $ 2,439,477,000. Gross profit and implied gross margin rose from Q2 2026 ($ 798,567,000; ≈ 6.3% margin) to Q3 2026 ($ 1,018,680,000; ≈ 9.95% margin), while operating income, net income and diluted EPS showed sequential improvement across Q1–Q3 2026 (operating income: $ 182,256,000 → $ 474,298,000 → $ 625,868,000; net income: $ 168,285,000 → $ 400,564,000 → $ 483,387,000; diluted EPS: $ 0.26 → $ 0.60 → $ 0.72).
Market signals are mixed and volatile: price sits above the 50‑ and 200‑day SMAs (price vs 50‑day +17.0%, vs 200‑day +17.2%) with a 2‑day old golden cross, but short‑term momentum is negative (3‑month -26.8%) while 6‑month momentum is +19.7%, 12‑month momentum is -51.4%, beta vs SPY is 3.65 with correlation 0.51, and 90‑day volatility is very high (annualized +112.8%, 97th percentile).
How this note was made
every stage ran before the note was writtenAnalyst desk
Mercer, Oakes, Nash, Ellis, Yates, Talbot and Archer. The desk: named AI agents, not people. Each reads one slice of the evidence and nothing else — no outside knowledge, no browsing — so every finding traces to a source you can open.
Reads the XBRL figures companies file with the SEC — revenue, margins, income, debt and share count, quarter by quarter — and reports which way the trend is running.
Revenue in the three most recent fiscal quarters in the filings: fiscal Q2 2026 (2025-10-01 to 2025-12-31, ended 31 December 2025) was $12,682,491,000; fiscal Q3 2026 (2026-01-01 to 2026-03-31, ended 31 March 2026) was $10,243,014,000, a decline of $2,439,477,000 quarter-to-quarter.
XBRL companyfacts · 0001375365-26-000007Gross profit and implied gross margin moved higher from fiscal Q2 2026 to fiscal Q3 2026: gross profit was $798,567,000 in fiscal Q2 2026 on $12,682,491,000 revenue (gross margin ≈ 6.3%), and $1,018,680,000 in fiscal Q3 2026 on $10,243,014,000 revenue (gross margin ≈ 9.95%).
XBRL companyfacts · 0001375365-26-000007Reads the filings themselves, above all the year-over-year diff of Item 1A risk factors: which risks a company added, dropped or quietly reworded since its last annual report.
Which filings the desk reads
The desk reads the annual 10-K in full — its risk factors, and how they changed since last year. Quarterly 10-Qs and event filings (8-Ks, insider Form 4s) are listed for context but not read line by line: the 10-K is where the material risk disclosures live. A brand-new company, or one we have only just begun tracking, may have no annual report on file yet — its risk analysis fills in once that lands.
A Form 10-K for Super Micro Computer, Inc. was filed on 2026-08-31 (the 10-K filed 31 August 2026) and is present in the provided evidence.
10-K filed 2026-08-31A Form 4 reporting an insider transaction was filed on 2026-08-31 (the 4 filed 31 August 2026) and is present in the provided evidence.
4 filed 2026-08-31Reads the signal panel above — momentum, volatility, drawdown, relative strength and beta — and ranks each against the whole research universe rather than judging it in isolation.
Beta vs SPY is 3.65 and correlation with SPY is 0.51 as of 2026-09-01.
Moneyta signal set · 2026-09-01Short-term and medium-term momentum are mixed: 3-month momentum is -26.8% while 6-month momentum is +19.7%, and the 12_1 momentum is -51.4% (ranked in the 4th percentile of 547).
Moneyta signal set · 2026-09-01weakened in debateReads which funds hold the name and at what weight, plus insider Form 4 filings, to show the exposure you may already carry through index funds.
As of 2026-09-02, the security is a constituent of the IVV ETF with a reported weight of 0.03% of that fund.
ETF constituents · market dataThree Form 4 insider filings for the issuer were filed on 2026-08-31 and are recorded with parse_status "pending".
Form 4 × 15 (90d window not enforced here)Reads recent headlines that are genuinely about this company, ignoring rating chatter and market-wide stories. Findings argue in the debate but never move the sentiment score.
A 247wallst.com headline (published 2 Sep 2026) reports Dell surged 9% on a reported $95B AI backlog and says that enterprise hardware peers were dragged higher, with Super Micro described as ticking up.
News · 247wallst.com · 2026-09-02A finance.yahoo.com headline (published 2 Sep 2026) carries essentially the same Dell-driven narrative, describing a large AI order number that created a ripple through enterprise hardware including Super Micro.
News · finance.yahoo.com · 2026-09-02Reads parsed Forms 3/4/5 — who bought or sold, at what size, and whether a 10b5-1 plan was involved. Flags clustered open-market officer buying; treats plan sales as routine and never counts a fund or 10%-holder as an officer.
On 2026-08-17, Xiao Jin (Sr. Corporate VP, Engineering) reported a sale of 1,436 shares for "$55k" (Form 4, action code F) and a separate reporting entry of 4,000 shares with value "$0" (action code M); the filing shows no trading-plan (10b5-1) flag in the provided evidence.
Form 4 · Xiao Jin (Sr. Corporate VP, Engineering) · $0 code M · 2026-08-17On 2026-08-17, Cheung Kenneth (SVP, Chief Accounting Officer) reported a sale of 808 shares for "$31k" (Form 4, action code F) and a separate reporting entry of 2,250 shares with value "$0" (action code M); the filing shows no trading-plan (10b5-1) flag in the provided evidence.
Form 4 · Cheung Kenneth (SVP, Chief Accounting Officer) · $0 code M · 2026-08-17Reads the implied-expectations math built from the company's own filings (the growth rate today's price would justify, and the multiples beside it) and argues whether the market's bar looks high or low for this business. Never turns the math into a target.
The share price used is 36.71 as of 2026-09-01.
Valuation inputs · SEC XBRL + stored EOD closeTrailing twelve‑month P/E is 20.98 and trailing twelve‑month EV/EBITDA is 11.31.
Valuation inputs · SEC XBRL + stored EOD closeDebate and risk review
A bull and a bear contest the claims and the chair rules on each; the risk review stress-tests what survived.
A bull and a bear argue the analysts' claims across two rounds, then a chair rules on each one. Only what survives feeds the score — the argument is shown, not hidden, so you can judge the reasoning yourself.
Several pieces of the provided evidence jointly support a favorable read: operating income, net income and diluted EPS show clear quarter-to-quarter improvement across fiscal Q1–Q3 2026 (fundamentals-2 — strength: strong, from 10-Q/10-K filings), and gross margin expanded materially from Q2 to Q3 2026 even as revenue declined (fundamentals-1 — strength: strong, directly calculated from reported line items). Market positioning signals also support a positive technical backdrop: price is above both the 50‑ and 200‑day SMAs with a recent golden cross (market-2 — strength: medium) and 6‑month relative strength versus SPY is strong (market-5 — strength: medium). Balance-sheet evidence of substantial cash relative to reported long‑term debt (valuation-3 — strength: strong) further reinforces the favorable operational signals. The bear case relies heavily on extreme historical drawdown, very high volatility, and insider sales (market-4 and market-3 and insider-0..6); these items are factually reported (strength: strong for drawdown and volatility, strong for Form 4 filings) but represent high historical variability and discrete transactions rather than the company’s recent quarter-level operating profitability improvements.
Chair's verdict, claim by claim
Fragility · computed, not argued
diversified0.24
38 surviving claims rest on 24 distinct sources; the heaviest analyst carries 18% of them, and 97% of what the desk raised survived the debate.
The evidence set contains a moderate number of distinct sources for the surviving claims, but a single analyst accounts for a meaningful share of the desk's assertions; that raises some dependence risk on that analyst's interpretation. The very high debate survival rate (97%) means few claims were cut during review, so readers should treat this read as coherent but somewhat brittle — if key sources or that heavy analyst interpretation shift, the overall narrative would lose weight quickly.
Peer context · computed, not argued
12-1 momentum ranks 5th of 5 in Computer Hardware (as of 2026-09-01).
6-month relative strength ranks 3rd of 5 in Computer Hardware (as of 2026-09-01).
90-day volatility ranks 1st of 5 in Computer Hardware (as of 2026-09-01).
Disconfirming evidence · base rates · falsifiers
Context
Outside consensus, and where this name already sits in your own portfolio.
Third-party consensus shown for context. It never enters Moneyta sentiment — when the two diverge, the debate above is where the why lives.
What this was built from
Every figure on this page traces to one of these. The desk reads only what is listed here — no outside knowledge, no browsing — and each card shows who read it and what it contributed to the score.
14 filings· 2 cited
SEC XBRL filings
Quarterly figures as filed with the SEC, read straight from EDGAR's structured data — not retyped or estimated.
Read by Mercer+0.2 to the score
10 documents· 2 cited
SEC filing documents
The filings themselves, including the year-over-year comparison of Item 1A risk factors.
Read by Oakes+0.0 to the score
1 signal set
Moneyta signal set
Computed from our own end-of-day price history and ranked against the whole research universe. No AI involved.
Read by Nash−0.2 to the score
2 holdings records
Fund holdings
Which funds hold this name and at what weight, plus insider Form 4 filings.
Read by Ellis+0.0 to the score
5 headlines· 2 cited
News coverage
Recent headlines about this company, rating chatter excluded and nothing published after the report date.
Read by Yatesnothing survived
7 filings· 2 cited
Insider filings
Parsed Forms 3/4/5 from EDGAR: named insiders, share counts, prices, and 10b5-1 plan state — stated and inferred flags kept apart.
Read by Talbot−1.0 to the score
1 computation
Valuation inputs
TTM cash-flow figures from the company's own XBRL filings, priced with the stored closing price. Implied growth and multiples only; no fair-value dollar figure reaches the desk, by design.
Read by Archercontext only
1 record· 0 cited
Company profile
Sector, industry and company details.
1 record· 0 cited
Analyst consensus
Third-party consensus, shown for context only — it never enters Moneyta sentiment.
Read means we pulled and handed it to an analyst; cited means a claim on this page points at it. Reading twelve quarters to state one trend is normal — the gap is shown rather than hidden.
Written by AI, checked against sources
The analysts, the bull–bear debate and the editor's note are AI agents reading only the evidence listed on this page. They can misread a filing or a headline, which is why every claim cites a source you can open and check yourself. The sentiment score is arithmetic over the claims that survived the debate, not a language model's opinion.
Educational analysis of published data. Moneyta does not give investment advice or make recommendations. Past patterns do not indicate future results.
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The full terminal on SMCI Gold
Who holds it, who's buying, what the Street thinks: live behind the lock, updated as filings land.
Institutional holders
Net institutional flow, Q/Q
Largest holder position
Insider buys, 90 days
Clustered insider value
Street target range
The real figures are for members. Educational analysis, not advice.
Educational analysis of published data. Moneyta does not give investment advice or make recommendations.