TDG
TransDigm Group IncorporatedEvidence as of 2026-09-03Overview · TransDigm Group Incorporated
TransDigm Group Incorporated designs, produces, and supplies aircraft components in the United States and internationally. Its Power & Control segment offers mechanical/electro-mechanical actuators and controls, ignition systems and engine technology, specialized pumps and valves, power conditioning devices, specialized AC/DC electric motors and generators, batteries and chargers, databus and power controls, sensor p…
Management team
- Alex Feil · Executive Vice PresidentFind on LinkedIn
- Ms. Jessica L. Warren · General Counsel, Chief Compliance Officer & SecretaryFind on LinkedIn
- Mr. Michael J. Lisman · Co-Chief Operating OfficerFind on LinkedIn
- Mr. Joel B. Reiss · Co-Chief Operating OfficerFind on LinkedIn
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Links open LinkedIn searches, not verified profiles. Team data from our market-data vendor's company profile.
Moneyta sentiment
Where the published evidence leans after the desk debated it — not a rating or a recommendation.
−0.3 on a −2 to +2 scale.
What builds the score
Solid bars are analyst rubric scores; faded bars are computed directly from data. Claims dropped in debate count for nothing; weakened claims count at half weight.
Editor's note
Written after the debate settled — the rest of the page is the evidence behind it.
The evidence balance is Mixed (‑0.2 of a possible +2; confidence high). Revenues rose quarter‑to‑quarter across fiscal Q1 2026 (2025-10-01 to 2025-12-27) at $2,285,000,000, fiscal Q2 2026 (2025-12-28 to 2026-03-28) at $2,544,000,000, and fiscal Q3 2026 (2026-03-29 to 2026-06-27) at $2,741,000,000. Gross profit and operating income increased over the same quarters (gross profit: $1,352,000,000 → $1,511,000,000 → $1,628,000,000; operating income: $1,042,000,000 → $1,178,000,000 → $1,227,000,000), and net income rose from $445,000,000 to $535,000,000 and $539,000,000 across those quarters.
At the same time, weighted‑average diluted shares declined modestly (from 58,200,000 to 57,400,000) and point‑in‑time shares outstanding fell from 56,318,584 as of 2025-10-31 to 55,276,525 as of 2026-07-31. Offsetting operational improvements, long‑term debt increased (to $32,760,000,000 as of 2026-06-27) and stockholders’ equity is negative and moved from -$9,270,000,000 to -$9,809,000,000 over the recent quarters. Market metrics show price below both moving averages (‑7.6% vs the 50‑day SMA and ‑9.2% vs the 200‑day SMA), elevated volatility (30‑day annualized +27.3%), and weakened multi‑month momentum (3‑month ‑4.8%, 6‑month ‑12.3%, 12‑1 ‑14.0%). Valuation multiples include price/FCF ~ 27.28, EV/EBITDA ~ 19.14, and trailing P/E ~ 34.26, with an implied FCF growth rate of 16.71% embedded in today’s price.
How this note was made
every stage ran before the note was writtenAnalyst desk
Mercer, Oakes, Nash, Ellis, Yates, Talbot and Archer. The desk: named AI agents, not people. Each reads one slice of the evidence and nothing else — no outside knowledge, no browsing — so every finding traces to a source you can open.
Reads the XBRL figures companies file with the SEC — revenue, margins, income, debt and share count, quarter by quarter — and reports which way the trend is running.
Revenues rose quarter-to-quarter in the recent fiscal year: fiscal Q1 2026 (2025-10-01 to 2025-12-27) revenues were $2,285,000,000; fiscal Q2 2026 (2025-12-28 to 2026-03-28) revenues were $2,544,000,000; fiscal Q3 2026 (2026-03-29 to 2026-06-27) revenues were $2,741,000,000.
XBRL companyfacts · 0001260221-26-000017Gross profit and operating income also increased across the same three fiscal quarters: gross profit was $1,352,000,000 in fiscal Q1 2026 (2025-10-01 to 2025-12-27), $1,511,000,000 in fiscal Q2 2026 (2025-12-28 to 2026-03-28), and $1,628,000,000 in fiscal Q3 2026 (2026-03-29 to 2026-06-27); operating income was $1,042,000,000 in fiscal Q1 2026, $1,178,000,000 in fiscal Q2 2026, and $1,227,000,000 in fiscal Q3 2026.
XBRL companyfacts · 0001260221-26-000017Reads the filings themselves, above all the year-over-year diff of Item 1A risk factors: which risks a company added, dropped or quietly reworded since its last annual report.
Which filings the desk reads
The desk reads the annual 10-K in full — its risk factors, and how they changed since last year. Quarterly 10-Qs and event filings (8-Ks, insider Form 4s) are listed for context but not read line by line: the 10-K is where the material risk disclosures live. A brand-new company, or one we have only just begun tracking, may have no annual report on file yet — its risk analysis fills in once that lands.
A Form 4 (insider report of changes in beneficial ownership) was filed on 2026-08-19.
4 filed 2026-08-19A Form 4 (insider report of changes in beneficial ownership) was filed on 2026-08-18.
4 filed 2026-08-18Reads the signal panel above — momentum, volatility, drawdown, relative strength and beta — and ranks each against the whole research universe rather than judging it in isolation.
Momentum over the past 3 months (as of 2026-09-02) is -4.8%.
Moneyta signal set · 2026-09-02weakened in debateMomentum over the past 6 months (as of 2026-09-02) is -12.3% and ranks in the 16th percentile of the 547-stock research universe.
Moneyta signal set · 2026-09-02weakened in debateReads which funds hold the name and at what weight, plus insider Form 4 filings, to show the exposure you may already carry through index funds.
As of 2026-09-02, the ETF iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV) held TDG with a weight of 0.12% of the fund.
ETF constituents · market dataThere are two insider Form 4 filings for TDG with filed dates on 2026-08-18 and 2026-08-19; both parsed status values are 'skipped' and neither has a primary_doc_url in the provided data.
Form 4 × 2 (90d window not enforced here)Reads recent headlines that are genuinely about this company, ignoring rating chatter and market-wide stories. Findings argue in the debate but never move the sentiment score.
A valuation-focused headline asks whether TDG is overvalued using a discounted cash flow result (headline published 2 September 2026).
News · gurufocus.com · 2026-09-02Coverage from multiple outlets places TransDigm alongside aerospace peers in a quarter-by-quarter earnings review, framing the story as industry-level performance comparisons rather than solely company-only news (headline published 1 September 2026).
News · kalkinemedia.com · 2026-09-01Reads parsed Forms 3/4/5 — who bought or sold, at what size, and whether a 10b5-1 plan was involved. Flags clustered open-market officer buying; treats plan sales as routine and never counts a fund or 10%-holder as an officer.
Howley W Nicholas (Director) reported multiple open-market sale transactions on 2026-08-18 including a $4.9M sale of 3980 shares in the filing.
Form 4 · Howley W Nicholas (Director) · $673k code M · 2026-08-18All of the transactions reported for Howley W Nicholas in the filing are described on the form as made pursuant to a 10b5-1 plan (the filing states '10b5-1 plan').
Form 4 · Howley W Nicholas (Director) · $673k code M · 2026-08-18Reads the implied-expectations math built from the company's own filings (the growth rate today's price would justify, and the multiples beside it) and argues whether the market's bar looks high or low for this business. Never turns the math into a target.
The price-to-free-cash-flow (price/FCF) multiple is 27.28 based on trailing twelve-month FCF of $2,428,000,000 and the market price.
Valuation inputs · SEC XBRL + stored EOD closeThe enterprise-value-to-EBITDA (EV/EBITDA) multiple is 19.14 using trailing twelve-month EBITDA of $4,900,000,000 and the calculated enterprise value of $93,762,290,719.
Valuation inputs · SEC XBRL + stored EOD closeDebate and risk review
A bull and a bear contest the claims and the chair rules on each; the risk review stress-tests what survived.
A bull and a bear argue the analysts' claims across two rounds, then a chair rules on each one. Only what survives feeds the score — the argument is shown, not hidden, so you can judge the reasoning yourself.
The SEC-sourced quarterly filings show a clear sequential improvement in top-line and profit metrics across fiscal Q1–Q3 2026 (rising revenues, gross profit, operating income, and net income) together with modest share count reduction and ETF ownership; these items jointly support a favorable operational read and indicate improving per-share economics. The bullish news coverage citing stronger commercial aftermarket revenues (+17% in fiscal Q3 2026) aligns with the reported revenue and gross-profit gains, strengthening the case that recent growth is at least partly company-specific and reflected in reported results. Valuation-model outputs that imply a required long-run FCF growth rate (~16.7%) and elevated multiples (~27x P/FCF, ~19x EV/EBITDA) reflect market expectations embedded in price rather than contradicting the improved reported fundamentals; the evidence for growth expectations is sourced to the valuation model and trailing financials. I contest negative-read claims based on rising long-term debt, negative shareholders’ equity, recent insider Form 4 sale filings, and short-term market momentum, because those points are either balance-sheet-contextual (debt and equity levels without accompanying liquidity/coverage detail), procedurally explained (insider sales reported as 10b5-1 plans), or market-timing signals that do not negate sequential operational improvement in SEC filings.
Chair's verdict, claim by claim
Fragility · computed, not argued
balanced0.38
33 surviving claims rest on 14 distinct sources; the heaviest analyst carries 24% of them, and 91% of what the desk raised survived the debate.
The surviving set is moderately concentrated: a relatively small number of sources underpins many claims and one analyst's work represents nearly a quarter of the surviving claims, so individual-source errors or analyst bias would meaningfully change the read. The high survival rate from debate suggests internal consistency, but negative equity and the heavy reliance on a few filings/news items make the overall read fragile to new filings or corrected data.
Peer context · computed, not argued
12-1 momentum ranks 8th of 8 in Aerospace & Defense (as of 2026-09-02).
6-month relative strength ranks 5th of 8 in Aerospace & Defense (as of 2026-09-02).
90-day volatility ranks 5th of 8 in Aerospace & Defense (as of 2026-09-02).
Disconfirming evidence · base rates · falsifiers
Context
Outside consensus, and where this name already sits in your own portfolio.
Third-party consensus shown for context. It never enters Moneyta sentiment — when the two diverge, the debate above is where the why lives.
What this was built from
Every figure on this page traces to one of these. The desk reads only what is listed here — no outside knowledge, no browsing — and each card shows who read it and what it contributed to the score.
12 filings· 1 cited
SEC XBRL filings
Quarterly figures as filed with the SEC, read straight from EDGAR's structured data — not retyped or estimated.
Read by Mercer+0.3 to the score
2 documents
SEC filing documents
The filings themselves, including the year-over-year comparison of Item 1A risk factors.
Read by Oakes+0.0 to the score
1 signal set
Moneyta signal set
Computed from our own end-of-day price history and ranked against the whole research universe. No AI involved.
Read by Nash−1.1 to the score
2 holdings records
Fund holdings
Which funds hold this name and at what weight, plus insider Form 4 filings.
Read by Ellis+0.5 to the score
8 headlines· 2 cited
News coverage
Recent headlines about this company, rating chatter excluded and nothing published after the report date.
Read by Yatesnothing survived
2 filings· 1 cited
Insider filings
Parsed Forms 3/4/5 from EDGAR: named insiders, share counts, prices, and 10b5-1 plan state — stated and inferred flags kept apart.
Read by Talbot−1.0 to the score
1 computation
Valuation inputs
TTM cash-flow figures from the company's own XBRL filings, priced with the stored closing price. Implied growth and multiples only; no fair-value dollar figure reaches the desk, by design.
Read by Archercontext only
1 record· 0 cited
Company profile
Sector, industry and company details.
1 record· 0 cited
Analyst consensus
Third-party consensus, shown for context only — it never enters Moneyta sentiment.
Read means we pulled and handed it to an analyst; cited means a claim on this page points at it. Reading twelve quarters to state one trend is normal — the gap is shown rather than hidden.
Written by AI, checked against sources
The analysts, the bull–bear debate and the editor's note are AI agents reading only the evidence listed on this page. They can misread a filing or a headline, which is why every claim cites a source you can open and check yourself. The sentiment score is arithmetic over the claims that survived the debate, not a language model's opinion.
Educational analysis of published data. Moneyta does not give investment advice or make recommendations. Past patterns do not indicate future results.
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The full terminal on TDG Gold
Who holds it, who's buying, what the Street thinks: live behind the lock, updated as filings land.
Institutional holders
Net institutional flow, Q/Q
Largest holder position
Insider buys, 90 days
Clustered insider value
Street target range
The real figures are for members. Educational analysis, not advice.
Educational analysis of published data. Moneyta does not give investment advice or make recommendations.