TKO
New Whale Inc.Evidence as of 2026-09-03Moneyta sentiment
Where the published evidence leans after the desk debated it — not a rating or a recommendation.
+0.0 on a −2 to +2 scale.
What builds the score
Solid bars are analyst rubric scores; faded bars are computed directly from data. Claims dropped in debate count for nothing; weakened claims count at half weight.
Editor's note
Written after the debate settled — the rest of the page is the evidence behind it.
Mixed evidence survives the desk review: revenues rose to $1,596,876,000 in Q1 2026 (fiscal quarter ended 2026-03-31) and were $1,547,078,000 in Q2 2026 (fiscal quarter ended 2026-06-30), up from $1,308,442,000 in Q2 2025 (fiscal quarter ended 2025-06-30). Operating income is reported at $338,479,000 in Q1 2026 and $429,806,000 in Q2 2026 versus $368,305,000 in Q2 2025, while diluted EPS moved from $1.17 in Q2 2025 to $1.12 in Q1 2026 and $1.34 in Q2 2026.
The company repurchased $838,310,000 of common stock in Q1 2026, and weighted‑average diluted shares outstanding declined from 199,279,343 in Q2 2025 and 199,061,830 in Q3 2025 to 194,631,394 in Q1 2026 and then to 75,870,706 in Q2 2026. Balance‑sheet items show cash falling to $592,485,000 as of 2026-06-30 while long‑term debt rose to $4,629,225,000 and total liabilities to $7,898,410,000 as of the same date. Market signals include a trailing twelve‑month P/E of 66.59, six‑month momentum of -11.5% (17th percentile), three‑year max drawdown of -27.9%, and elevated 30‑ to 90‑day volatility around the low‑30% annualized range.
How this note was made
every stage ran before the note was writtenAnalyst desk
Mercer, Oakes, Nash, Ellis, Yates, Talbot and Archer. The desk: named AI agents, not people. Each reads one slice of the evidence and nothing else — no outside knowledge, no browsing — so every finding traces to a source you can open.
Reads the XBRL figures companies file with the SEC — revenue, margins, income, debt and share count, quarter by quarter — and reports which way the trend is running.
Revenues were $1,596,876,000 for the quarter ended 31 March 2026 (fiscal Q1 2026) and $1,547,078,000 for the quarter ended 30 June 2026 (fiscal Q2 2026), versus $1,308,442,000 for the quarter ended 30 June 2025 (fiscal Q2 2025).
XBRL companyfacts · 0001193125-26-208992Operating income rose from $368,305,000 in the quarter ended 30 June 2025 (fiscal Q2 2025) to $338,479,000 in the quarter ended 31 March 2026 (fiscal Q1 2026) and then to $429,806,000 in the quarter ended 30 June 2026 (fiscal Q2 2026).
XBRL companyfacts · 0000950170-25-104095weakened in debateReads the filings themselves, above all the year-over-year diff of Item 1A risk factors: which risks a company added, dropped or quietly reworded since its last annual report.
Which filings the desk reads
The desk reads the annual 10-K in full — its risk factors, and how they changed since last year. Quarterly 10-Qs and event filings (8-Ks, insider Form 4s) are listed for context but not read line by line: the 10-K is where the material risk disclosures live. A brand-new company, or one we have only just begun tracking, may have no annual report on file yet — its risk analysis fills in once that lands.
A Form 4 for New Whale Inc. was filed on 2026-08-19.
4 filed 2026-08-19A Form 4 for New Whale Inc. was filed on 2026-08-19.
4 filed 2026-08-19Reads the signal panel above — momentum, volatility, drawdown, relative strength and beta — and ranks each against the whole research universe rather than judging it in isolation.
Momentum over the past 6 months (fiscal 6-month window ending 2026-09-02) is -11.5% and ranks in the 17th percentile of the 547-stock research universe, indicating weaker-than-average 6-month performance.
Moneyta signal set · 2026-09-02The 12_1 momentum measure (price change excluding the most recent month) is +13.1% and ranks in the 46th percentile of the 547-stock research universe, indicating roughly middle-of-the-pack 12-month relative momentum by this metric.
Moneyta signal set · 2026-09-02Reads which funds hold the name and at what weight, plus insider Form 4 filings, to show the exposure you may already carry through index funds.
As of 2026-09-02T13:45:47.228469+00:00, the ETF iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV) held TKO at 0.02% weight of the fund.
ETF constituents · market dataThere are five reported insider Form 4 filings for TKO with filed dates on 2026-08-14 (one filing) and 2026-08-19 (four filings).
Form 4 × 5 (90d window not enforced here)Reads recent headlines that are genuinely about this company, ignoring rating chatter and market-wide stories. Findings argue in the debate but never move the sentiment score.
Press coverage notes TKO reported second-quarter 2026 results on August 3 showing revenue climbed 18% to $1.547 billion for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, and that the company raised full-year guidance for the second time this year.
News · finance.yahoo.com · 2026-09-02Multiple outlets carried headlines about TKO expanding WWE brands into mobile gaming via collaborations (for example, a second Clash of Clans collaboration and an in-game global event in September).
News · simplywall.st · 2026-09-02Reads parsed Forms 3/4/5 — who bought or sold, at what size, and whether a 10b5-1 plan was involved. Flags clustered open-market officer buying; treats plan sales as routine and never counts a fund or 10%-holder as an officer.
Ariel Emanuel (Chief Executive Officer) reported selling 24,702 shares for "$4.8M" on 2026-08-18.
Form 4 · Emanuel Ariel (Chief Executive Officer) · $4.8M sold · 2026-08-18Andrew M Schleimer (Chief Financial Officer) reported selling 9,942 shares for "$1.9M" on 2026-08-18.
Form 4 · Schleimer Andrew M (Chief Financial Officer) · $1.9M sold · 2026-08-18Reads the implied-expectations math built from the company's own filings (the growth rate today's price would justify, and the multiples beside it) and argues whether the market's bar looks high or low for this business. Never turns the math into a target.
The reported price used in this analysis is $189.79 (price_date 2026-09-02).
Valuation inputs · SEC XBRL + stored EOD closeTrailing twelve‑month price/earnings (P/E) is 66.59.
Valuation inputs · SEC XBRL + stored EOD closeDebate and risk review
A bull and a bear contest the claims and the chair rules on each; the risk review stress-tests what survived.
A bull and a bear argue the analysts' claims across two rounds, then a chair rules on each one. Only what survives feeds the score — the argument is shown, not hidden, so you can judge the reasoning yourself.
Several SEC-filed items and press coverage jointly portray a favorable operating picture: year-over-year revenue growth into fiscal Q2 2026 and sequential improvement in operating income and diluted EPS are documented in recent 10-Q/8-K filings and earnings press reports, while a meaningful share-count reduction and a large Q1 2026 repurchase payment are recorded in SEC disclosures. Trailing twelve‑month operating cash flow and D&A are sizable versus reported operating income, which strengthens the view that reported earnings are supported by operating cash generation in the recent period. Market signals showing low beta and a mid‑pack longer‑term momentum measure, together with a modest trailing dividend yield, provide additional context for lowered market sensitivity rather than company-specific volatility. The strongest evidence items are the SEC filings for revenue, operating income, EPS, share repurchases, and the trailing cash-flow metrics; weaker counterpoints include rising leverage and short‑term negative price momentum, which require contextualization with the filings that document buybacks and stated 10b5‑1 insider plan disclosures.
Chair's verdict, claim by claim
Fragility · computed, not argued
diversified0.25
34 surviving claims rest on 21 distinct sources; the heaviest analyst carries 18% of them, and 97% of what the desk raised survived the debate.
The evidence base is moderately robust: 34 surviving claims draw on 21 distinct sources and no single analyst dominates the set, which supports cross‑checking. However, a very high debate-survival rate means few claims were successfully overturned during review, so cautious weighting is appropriate — filings-driven claims (share count, repurchases, debt) are stronger, while computed market signals and news items are more sensitive to short-term updates.
Disconfirming evidence · base rates · falsifiers
Context
Outside consensus, and where this name already sits in your own portfolio.
Third-party consensus shown for context. It never enters Moneyta sentiment — when the two diverge, the debate above is where the why lives.
What this was built from
Every figure on this page traces to one of these. The desk reads only what is listed here — no outside knowledge, no browsing — and each card shows who read it and what it contributed to the score.
12 filings· 2 cited
SEC XBRL filings
Quarterly figures as filed with the SEC, read straight from EDGAR's structured data — not retyped or estimated.
Read by Mercer+0.6 to the score
5 documents· 2 cited
SEC filing documents
The filings themselves, including the year-over-year comparison of Item 1A risk factors.
Read by Oakes+0.0 to the score
1 signal set
Moneyta signal set
Computed from our own end-of-day price history and ranked against the whole research universe. No AI involved.
Read by Nash+0.3 to the score
2 holdings records
Fund holdings
Which funds hold this name and at what weight, plus insider Form 4 filings.
Read by Ellis+0.0 to the score
8 headlines· 2 cited
News coverage
Recent headlines about this company, rating chatter excluded and nothing published after the report date.
Read by Yatesnothing survived
5 filings· 2 cited
Insider filings
Parsed Forms 3/4/5 from EDGAR: named insiders, share counts, prices, and 10b5-1 plan state — stated and inferred flags kept apart.
Read by Talbot−0.8 to the score
1 computation
Valuation inputs
TTM cash-flow figures from the company's own XBRL filings, priced with the stored closing price. Implied growth and multiples only; no fair-value dollar figure reaches the desk, by design.
Read by Archercontext only
1 record· 0 cited
Company profile
Sector, industry and company details.
1 record· 0 cited
Analyst consensus
Third-party consensus, shown for context only — it never enters Moneyta sentiment.
Read means we pulled and handed it to an analyst; cited means a claim on this page points at it. Reading twelve quarters to state one trend is normal — the gap is shown rather than hidden.
Written by AI, checked against sources
The analysts, the bull–bear debate and the editor's note are AI agents reading only the evidence listed on this page. They can misread a filing or a headline, which is why every claim cites a source you can open and check yourself. The sentiment score is arithmetic over the claims that survived the debate, not a language model's opinion.
Educational analysis of published data. Moneyta does not give investment advice or make recommendations. Past patterns do not indicate future results.
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The full terminal on TKO Gold
Who holds it, who's buying, what the Street thinks: live behind the lock, updated as filings land.
Institutional holders
Net institutional flow, Q/Q
Largest holder position
Insider buys, 90 days
Clustered insider value
Street target range
The real figures are for members. Educational analysis, not advice.
Educational analysis of published data. Moneyta does not give investment advice or make recommendations.