TSCO
TRACTOR SUPPLY CO /DE/Evidence as of 2026-09-03Overview · TRACTOR SUPPLY CO /DE/
Tractor Supply Company operates as a rural lifestyle retailer in the United States. The company offers a selection of merchandise, including equine, livestock, pet, and small animal products necessary for their health, care, growth, and containment; hardware, truck, towing, and tool products; seasonal products, such as heating products, lawn and garden items, power equipment, gifts, and toys; work/recreational clothi…
Management team
- Mr. Jonathan Seth Estep · Executive VP & Chief Merchandising OfficerFind on LinkedIn
- Mr. John P. Ordus · Executive VP & Chief Stores OfficerFind on LinkedIn
- Mr. Robert D. Mills · Executive VP and Chief Technology, Digital Commerce & Strategy OfficerFind on LinkedIn
- Mr. Kurt D. Barton · Executive VP, CFO & TreasurerFind on LinkedIn
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Links open LinkedIn searches, not verified profiles. Team data from our market-data vendor's company profile.
Moneyta sentiment
Where the published evidence leans after the desk debated it — not a rating or a recommendation.
+0.6 on a −2 to +2 scale.
What builds the score
Solid bars are analyst rubric scores; faded bars are computed directly from data. Claims dropped in debate count for nothing; weakened claims count at half weight.
Editor's note
Written after the debate settled — the rest of the page is the evidence behind it.
Revenues rose from $ 3,592,046,000 in Q1 2026 (fiscal quarter ended 2026-04-25) to $ 4,541,314,000 in Q2 2026 (fiscal quarter ended 2026-07-25), an increase of $ 949,268,000 (≈ 26.4%). Gross profit increased from $ 1,301,185,000 to $ 1,682,609,000 over the same quarters (≈ 29.3%); operating income rose from $ 233,431,000 to $ 467,115,000 (≈ 100%); and net income increased from $ 164,524,000 to $ 360,715,000 (≈ 119%).
The company reduced share counts across the sample (weighted‑average diluted shares declined by 7,590,000 from fiscal Q2 2025 to fiscal Q2 2026; entity common shares outstanding fell by 5,311,149 between 2026-01-24 and 2026-07-25). Reported repurchase activity and an increase in long‑term debt of $ 480,354,000 (from $ 1,673,472,000 as of 2025-06-28 to $ 2,153,826,000 as of 2026-06-27) also survive review. Valuation metrics shown use a share price of $ 34.86 (as of 2026-09-02), yielding a trailing P/E of 15.16, EV/EBITDA of 8.67 (EV = $ 18,081,871,176; EBITDA TTM = $ 2,086,060,000), and negative trailing twelve‑month free cash flow of $ -74,175,000.
How this note was made
every stage ran before the note was writtenAnalyst desk
Mercer, Oakes, Nash, Ellis, Yates, Talbot and Archer. The desk: named AI agents, not people. Each reads one slice of the evidence and nothing else — no outside knowledge, no browsing — so every finding traces to a source you can open.
Reads the XBRL figures companies file with the SEC — revenue, margins, income, debt and share count, quarter by quarter — and reports which way the trend is running.
Revenues rose from $3,592,046,000 in fiscal Q1 2026 (2025-12-28 to 2026-03-28, 3mo) to $4,541,314,000 in fiscal Q2 2026 (2026-03-29 to 2026-06-27, 3mo), an increase of $949,268,000 (≈26.4%).
XBRL companyfacts · 0000916365-26-000024Gross profit increased from $1,301,185,000 in fiscal Q1 2026 (2025-12-28 to 2026-03-28, 3mo) to $1,682,609,000 in fiscal Q2 2026 (2026-03-29 to 2026-06-27, 3mo), an increase of $381,424,000 (≈29.3%).
XBRL companyfacts · 0000916365-26-000024Reads the filings themselves, above all the year-over-year diff of Item 1A risk factors: which risks a company added, dropped or quietly reworded since its last annual report.
Nothing in this slice of the evidence rose to a claim — a quiet read, which itself is information.
Which filings the desk reads
The desk reads the annual 10-K in full — its risk factors, and how they changed since last year. Quarterly 10-Qs and event filings (8-Ks, insider Form 4s) are listed for context but not read line by line: the 10-K is where the material risk disclosures live. A brand-new company, or one we have only just begun tracking, may have no annual report on file yet — its risk analysis fills in once that lands.
Reads the signal panel above — momentum, volatility, drawdown, relative strength and beta — and ranks each against the whole research universe rather than judging it in isolation.
No computed signal history for this symbol yet — signals need roughly 70 trading days of price history.
Reads which funds hold the name and at what weight, plus insider Form 4 filings, to show the exposure you may already carry through index funds.
As of 2026-09-02T13:45:47.228469+00:00, Tractor Supply Co. (TSCO) is held in the iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV) with a weight of 0.03% of that fund.
ETF constituents · market dataThis record shows membership in a major index-tracking ETF (IVV) but indicates only a small position size within that fund (0.03%).
ETF constituents · market dataReads recent headlines that are genuinely about this company, ignoring rating chatter and market-wide stories. Findings argue in the debate but never move the sentiment score.
A Tractor Supply press release dated 2 September 2026 describes the company naming a new class of FFA Future Leaders and launching a fundraiser for an agriculture scholarship.
News · finance.yahoo.com · 2026-09-02Multiple SEC 13F-based reports in late August–early September 2026 show institutional position changes: Headlands Technologies LLC increased its stake (reported 1 September 2026), HSBC Holdings PLC initiated a new position (reported 27 August 2026), and Western Wealth Management LLC acquired 22,457 shares (reported 26 August 2026).
News · thelincolnianonline.com · 2026-09-01Reads parsed Forms 3/4/5 — who bought or sold, at what size, and whether a 10b5-1 plan was involved. Flags clustered open-market officer buying; treats plan sales as routine and never counts a fund or 10%-holder as an officer.
No insider transactions on file in the trailing 180 days.
Reads the implied-expectations math built from the company's own filings (the growth rate today's price would justify, and the multiples beside it) and argues whether the market's bar looks high or low for this business. Never turns the math into a target.
The share price used in these calculations was $34.86 as of 2026-09-02.
Valuation inputs · SEC XBRL + stored EOD closeTrailing twelve‑month P/E is 15.16 based on trailing EPS of $2.30.
Valuation inputs · SEC XBRL + stored EOD closeDebate and risk review
A bull and a bear contest the claims and the chair rules on each; the risk review stress-tests what survived.
A bull and a bear argue the analysts' claims across two rounds, then a chair rules on each one. Only what survives feeds the score — the argument is shown, not hidden, so you can judge the reasoning yourself.
Quarter-over-quarter operating and profitability metrics show a material uplift: revenues (+26%), gross profit (+29%), operating income (~+100%), and net income (+119%) between fiscal Q1 and Q2 2026, which indicates recent operational leverage. Share count has trended lower via buybacks and reductions in diluted shares, which, combined with rising net income, supports higher per‑share earnings metrics. Valuation multiples (TTM P/E ~15.2 and EV/EBITDA ~8.7) sit at levels that many investors view as reasonable relative to the reported profitability gains, and recent institutional position changes plus multiple buy ratings in the street consensus provide additional market interest signals. Taken together, these claims jointly support a favorable read on the company’s recent financial performance and market positioning.
Chair's verdict, claim by claim
Fragility · computed, not argued
balanced0.37
20 surviving claims rest on 10 distinct sources; the heaviest analyst carries 40% of them, and 100% of what the desk raised survived the debate.
The read rests on a modestly broad base of documentary sources but a substantial share of surviving claims trace back to a single analyst (40% of claims), and everything raised in the desk debate survived — together this raises concentration and survivorship concerns. Practically, the signal is informative about recent reported results and positioning, but its weight should be tempered because analyst-dependence and lack of internal skeptical pruning make the set more fragile to a single-source correction.
Disconfirming evidence · base rates · falsifiers
Context
Outside consensus, and where this name already sits in your own portfolio.
Third-party consensus shown for context. It never enters Moneyta sentiment — when the two diverge, the debate above is where the why lives.
What this was built from
Every figure on this page traces to one of these. The desk reads only what is listed here — no outside knowledge, no browsing — and each card shows who read it and what it contributed to the score.
10 filings· 1 cited
SEC XBRL filings
Quarterly figures as filed with the SEC, read straight from EDGAR's structured data — not retyped or estimated.
Read by Mercer+1.3 to the score
1 holdings record
Fund holdings
Which funds hold this name and at what weight, plus insider Form 4 filings.
Read by Ellis+0.0 to the score
8 headlines· 2 cited
News coverage
Recent headlines about this company, rating chatter excluded and nothing published after the report date.
Read by Yatesnothing survived
1 computation
Valuation inputs
TTM cash-flow figures from the company's own XBRL filings, priced with the stored closing price. Implied growth and multiples only; no fair-value dollar figure reaches the desk, by design.
Read by Archercontext only
1 record· 0 cited
Company profile
Sector, industry and company details.
1 record· 0 cited
Analyst consensus
Third-party consensus, shown for context only — it never enters Moneyta sentiment.
Read means we pulled and handed it to an analyst; cited means a claim on this page points at it. Reading twelve quarters to state one trend is normal — the gap is shown rather than hidden.
Written by AI, checked against sources
The analysts, the bull–bear debate and the editor's note are AI agents reading only the evidence listed on this page. They can misread a filing or a headline, which is why every claim cites a source you can open and check yourself. The sentiment score is arithmetic over the claims that survived the debate, not a language model's opinion.
Educational analysis of published data. Moneyta does not give investment advice or make recommendations. Past patterns do not indicate future results.
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The full terminal on TSCO Gold
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Institutional holders
Net institutional flow, Q/Q
Largest holder position
Insider buys, 90 days
Clustered insider value
Street target range
The real figures are for members. Educational analysis, not advice.
Educational analysis of published data. Moneyta does not give investment advice or make recommendations.