UNP
UNION PACIFIC CORPEvidence as of 2026-09-05The desk's Snapshot
3 of 15 open to everyone · members see allRead the full desk report on UNP
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Overview · UNION PACIFIC CORP
Union Pacific Corporation, through its subsidiary, Union Pacific Railroad Company, operates in the railroad business in the United States. The company offers transportation services for grain and grain products, fertilizers, food and refrigerated products, and coal and renewables to grain processors, animal feeders, ethanol producers, and other agricultural users; petroleum, and liquid petroleum gases; and constructi…
Management team
- Mr. Eric J. Gehringer · Executive Vice President of Operations - Union Pacific Railroad CompanyFind on LinkedIn
- Mr. Kenyatta G. Rocker · Executive Vice President of Marketing & SalesFind on LinkedIn
- Ms. Jennifer L. Hamann · Executive VP & CFOFind on LinkedIn
- Ms. Elizabeth F. Whited · PresidentFind on LinkedIn
Start free to see the full management team.
Links open LinkedIn searches, not verified profiles. Team data from our market-data vendor's company profile.
Moneyta sentiment
Where the published evidence leans after the desk debated it, not a rating or a recommendation.
−0.3 on a −2 to +2 scale.
What builds the score
Solid bars are analyst rubric scores; faded bars are computed directly from data. Claims dropped in debate count for nothing; weakened claims count at half weight.
Editor's note
Written after the debate settled. The rest of the page is the evidence behind it.
The surviving evidence paints a mixed picture (evidence balance: Mixed, -0.3; confidence: high). Revenue, operating income, net income and diluted EPS all rose sequentially into Q2 2026 (Q2 2026 = fiscal quarter ended 2026-07-17): revenue was $ 6,864,000,000 versus $ 6,217,000,000 in Q1 2026 and $ 6,244,000,000 in Q3 2025; operating income was $ 2,763,000,000 versus $ 2,458,000,000 and $ 2,549,000,000; net income was $ 1,993,000,000 versus $ 1,701,000,000 and $ 1,788,000,000; and diluted EPS rose to $ 3.36 from $ 2.87 and $ 3.01. Balance-sheet and ownership facts are material: stockholders’ equity increased to $ 20,673,000,000 as of 30 June 2026, common shares outstanding rose modestly to 594,075,498 by 17 July 2026, and institutional 13F holdings total $ 123.47B as of 2026-03-31.
Market and valuation signals are mixed as well: momentum measures are positive but noted as weakened in the debate (3‑month +6.4%, 6‑month +14.6%, 12‑1 +35.5%), a golden cross is present with price +11.8% vs its 200‑day average, P/FCF is 33.08, P/E TTM is 23.38, FCF TTM is $ 5.2B, and the company reports meaningful net leverage with $ 1.614B cash and $ 31.814B long‑term debt in the given filings.
How this note was made
every stage ran before the note was writtenAnalyst desk
Mercer, Oakes, Nash, Ellis, Yates, Talbot and Archer. The desk: named AI agents, not people. Each reads one slice of the evidence and nothing else (no outside knowledge, no browsing), so every finding traces to a source you can open.
Reads the XBRL figures companies file with the SEC (revenue, margins, income, debt and share count, quarter by quarter) and reports which way the trend is running.
Revenue for the single fiscal quarter ended 30 June 2026 (fiscal Q2 2026, 2026-04-01 to 2026-06-30) was $6,864,000,000, up from $6,217,000,000 in the single fiscal quarter ended 31 March 2026 (fiscal Q1 2026, 2026-01-01 to 2026-03-31) and up from $6,244,000,000 in the single fiscal quarter ended 30 September 2025 (fiscal Q3 2025, 2025-07-01 to 2025-09-30).
XBRL companyfacts · 0000100885-26-000250Operating income for the single fiscal quarter ended 30 June 2026 (fiscal Q2 2026) was $2,763,000,000, compared with $2,458,000,000 for the single fiscal quarter ended 31 March 2026 (fiscal Q1 2026) and $2,549,000,000 for the single fiscal quarter ended 30 September 2025 (fiscal Q3 2025).
XBRL companyfacts · 0000100885-26-000250Reads the filings themselves, above all the year-over-year diff of Item 1A risk factors: which risks a company added, dropped or quietly reworded since its last annual report.
Which filings the desk reads
The desk reads the annual 10-K in full: its risk factors, and how they changed since last year. Quarterly 10-Qs and event filings (8-Ks, insider Form 4s) are listed for context but not read line by line: the 10-K is where the material risk disclosures live. A brand-new company, or one we have only just begun tracking, may have no annual report on file yet; its risk analysis fills in once that lands.
The 10-K filed 2026-02-06 adds extensive, material risk language about the proposed mergers with Norfolk Southern, including that completion is subject to regulatory approvals that may never be obtained and that failure or delays could materially adversely affect the company and the combined company.
10-K filed 2026-02-06The 10-K filed 2026-02-06 adds risks that the merger agreement contains provisions that limit the company’s ability to pursue alternatives and, in specified circumstances, could require the company to pay a $2.5 billion termination fee to Norfolk Southern.
10-K filed 2026-02-06Reads the signal panel above (momentum, volatility, drawdown, relative strength and beta) and ranks each against the whole research universe rather than judging it in isolation.
As of 2026-09-04, UNP's beta vs SPY is 0.27 and its correlation vs SPY is 0.16, indicating low market sensitivity and low contemporaneous movement with the S&P 500 on the measured horizon.
Moneyta signal set · 2026-09-04Momentum measures are positive: 3-month momentum is +6.4%, 6-month momentum is +14.6%, and 12-1 momentum is +35.5%; the 6-month momentum ranks in the 63th percentile of the 547-stock universe and the 12-1 momentum ranks in the 74th percentile of the universe on 2026-09-04.
Moneyta signal set · 2026-09-04weakened in debateReads which funds hold the name and at what weight, plus insider Form 4 filings, to show the exposure you may already carry through index funds.
Institutional 13F-reported holdings total $123.47B as of 2026-03-31 (13F filings carry a 45-day reporting lag).
13F holdings · 2753 filers · as of 2026-03-31BlackRock, Inc. is the largest 13F-reported holder at $11.59B and Vanguard Capital Management LLC appears with $9.35B (Vanguard is marked as a new 13F position) in the 2026-03-31 13F data.
13F holdings · 2753 filers · as of 2026-03-31Reads recent headlines that are genuinely about this company, ignoring rating chatter and market-wide stories. Findings argue in the debate but never move the sentiment score.
An article published 4 September 2026 highlights a special investor call on 28 August 2026 that renewed attention on Union Pacific (UNP) and noted recent share-price movement over the past year.
News · simplywall.st · 2026-09-04Two separate articles published 4 September 2026 discuss elevated options-market activity around UNP, framing it as investors betting on a potentially large near-term stock move.
News · finance.yahoo.com · 2026-09-04Reads parsed Forms 3/4/5: who bought or sold, at what size, and whether a 10b5-1 plan was involved. Flags clustered open-market officer buying; treats plan sales as routine and never counts a fund or 10%-holder as an officer.
Eric J. Gehringer (EVP OPERATIONS) reported an open-market sale of 2,991 shares valued at "$790k" on 2026-06-03 according to the filing.
Form 4 · Gehringer Eric J (EVP OPERATIONS) · $790k sold · 2026-06-03Multiple officers filed small acquisitions (code A) in May–August 2026; examples include Rahul Jalali (EVP & CHIEF INFORMATION OFFICE) acquiring "9.07" shares valued at "$2k" on 2026-05-10.
Form 4 · Jalali Rahul (EVP & CHIEF INFORMATION OFFICE) · $2k code A · 2026-05-10Reads the implied-expectations math built from the company's own filings (the growth rate today's price would justify, and the multiples beside it) and argues whether the market's bar looks high or low for this business. Never turns the math into a target.
The model shows an implied free cash flow (FCF) growth rate of 21.71% that today's price would justify under the stated discount and terminal assumptions.
Valuation inputs · SEC XBRL + stored EOD closeweakened in debatePrice-to-free-cash-flow (P/FCF) is 33.08 based on FCF TTM of $5.2 billion and the price used.
Valuation inputs · SEC XBRL + stored EOD closeDebate and risk review
A bull and a bear contest the claims and the chair rules on each; the risk review stress-tests what survived.
A bull and a bear argue the analysts' claims across two rounds, then a chair rules on each one. Only what survives feeds the score. The argument is shown, not hidden, so you can judge the reasoning yourself.
Several contemporaneous operating and financial data points in the evidence set jointly support a favorable read: sequential and year-over-year increases in revenue, operating income, net income, and diluted EPS for the fiscal quarter ended June 30, 2026 (fundamentals-0 through fundamentals-3) coincide with rising stockholders’ equity (fundamentals-5) and strong trailing free cash flow (valuation-3). Market signals showing low beta and low correlation with the S&P 500 (market-0), positive multi-horizon momentum and a bullish moving-average configuration (market-1 and market-2), and large reported institutional ownership (ownership-0 through ownership-2) strengthen the informational case that multiple investor types have exposure and that price action has been favorable on the measured horizons. The negative filings and valuation items flagged by the bear rely on standard contract and regulatory caution language around the proposed merger (filings-0, filings-1) and model assumptions that produce a high implied FCF growth and elevated P/FCF (valuation-0, valuation-1); these are either contingent legal/regulatory disclosures or model-sensitive calculations rather than direct counter-evidence to the reported recent operational improvements. Collectively, the strongest direct evidence in the set is operational and cash-generation improvement plus supportive market positioning and institutional interest.
Chair's verdict, claim by claim
Fragility · computed, not argued
balanced0.34
38 surviving claims rest on 16 distinct sources; the heaviest analyst carries 16% of them, and 97% of what the desk raised survived the debate.
The surviving set rests on a mix of primary filings and computed market signals, giving it reasonable informational depth but with noticeable concentration in company filings and a few analytic sources. The largest single analyst carrying 16% and a 97% survival rate in debate imply the read is internally consistent and debated little, but reliance on a handful of sources (including the 10‑Q/10‑K and the computed signal set) makes some claims more fragile if those primary inputs change or are reinterpreted.
Peer context · computed, not argued
12-1 momentum ranks 2nd of 2 in Railroads (as of 2026-09-04).
90-day volatility ranks 2nd of 2 in Railroads (as of 2026-09-04).
dividend yield ranks 1st of 2 in Railroads (as of 2026-09-04).
Disconfirming evidence · base rates · falsifiers
Context
Outside consensus, and where this name already sits in your own portfolio.
Third-party consensus shown for context. It never enters Moneyta sentiment. When the two diverge, the debate above is where the why lives.
What this was built from
Every figure on this page traces to one of these. The desk reads only what is listed here (no outside knowledge, no browsing), and each card shows who read it and what it contributed to the score.
11 filings· 2 cited
SEC XBRL filings
Quarterly figures as filed with the SEC, read straight from EDGAR's structured data, not retyped or estimated.
Read by Mercer+0.8 to the score
9 documents· 3 cited
SEC filing documents
The filings themselves, including the year-over-year comparison of Item 1A risk factors.
Read by Oakes−0.8 to the score
1 signal set
Moneyta signal set
Computed from our own end-of-day price history and ranked against the whole research universe. No AI involved.
Read by Nash+0.5 to the score
3 holdings records· 1 cited
Fund holdings
Which funds hold this name and at what weight, plus insider Form 4 filings.
Read by Ellis+0.6 to the score
5 headlines· 2 cited
News coverage
Recent headlines about this company, rating chatter excluded and nothing published after the report date.
Read by Yatesnothing survived
18 filings· 2 cited
Insider filings
Parsed Forms 3/4/5 from EDGAR: named insiders, share counts, prices, and 10b5-1 plan state, with stated and inferred flags kept apart.
Read by Talbot−0.6 to the score
1 computation
Valuation inputs
TTM cash-flow figures from the company's own XBRL filings, priced with the stored closing price. Implied growth and multiples only; no fair-value dollar figure reaches the desk, by design.
Read by Archercontext only
1 record· 0 cited
Company profile
Sector, industry and company details.
1 record· 0 cited
Analyst consensus
Third-party consensus, shown for context only; it never enters Moneyta sentiment.
Read means we pulled and handed it to an analyst; cited means a claim on this page points at it. Reading twelve quarters to state one trend is normal; the gap is shown rather than hidden.
Written by AI, checked against sources
The analysts, the bull–bear debate and the editor's note are AI agents reading only the evidence listed on this page. They can misread a filing or a headline, which is why every claim cites a source you can open and check yourself. The sentiment score is arithmetic over the claims that survived the debate, not a language model's opinion.
Educational analysis of published data. Moneyta does not give investment advice or make recommendations. Past patterns do not indicate future results.
The full terminal on UNP Gold
Who holds it, who's buying, what the Street thinks: live behind the lock, updated as filings land.
Institutional holders
Net institutional flow, Q/Q
Largest holder position
Insider buys, 90 days
Clustered insider value
Street target range
The real figures are for members. Educational analysis, not advice.
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Educational analysis of published data. Moneyta does not give investment advice or make recommendations.