VLO
VALERO ENERGY CORP/TXEvidence as of 2026-09-03Overview · VALERO ENERGY CORP/TX
Valero Energy Corporation manufactures, markets, and sells transportation fuels and petrochemical products in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, Ireland, Latin America, and internationally. It operates through three segments: Refining, Renewable Diesel, and Ethanol. The company produces California Reformulated Gasoline Blendstock for Oxygenate Blending and Conventional Blendstock for Oxygenate Blending ga…
Management team
- Mr. Eric Fisher · Senior Vice President of Product Supply, Trading & WholesaleFind on LinkedIn
- Mr. Richard Joe Walsh · Executive VP & General CounselFind on LinkedIn
- Mr. Gary K. Simmons · Executive VP & COOFind on LinkedIn
- Mr. Jason W. Fraser · Executive VP & CFOFind on LinkedIn
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Links open LinkedIn searches, not verified profiles. Team data from our market-data vendor's company profile.
Moneyta sentiment
Where the published evidence leans after the desk debated it — not a rating or a recommendation.
+0.7 on a −2 to +2 scale.
What builds the score
Solid bars are analyst rubric scores; faded bars are computed directly from data. Claims dropped in debate count for nothing; weakened claims count at half weight.
Editor's note
Written after the debate settled — the rest of the page is the evidence behind it.
The evidence balance is Constructive (+0.7 of a possible +2; was +0.7 before debate) with high confidence. Valero’s reported results show a multi‑quarter recovery in profitability: diluted EPS moved from - 1.90 in fiscal Q1 2025 (fiscal quarter ended 2025-04-17) to 2.28 in fiscal Q2 2025 (fiscal quarter ended 2025-07-18), 3.53 in Q3 2025 (fiscal quarter ended 2025-10-17), 4.22 in Q1 2026 (fiscal quarter ended 2026-04-24) and 12.62 in Q2 2026 (fiscal quarter ended 2026-07-24). Quarterly net income rose from - 595,000,000 in fiscal Q1 2025 to 714,000,000 in fiscal Q2 2025, 1,095,000,000 in fiscal Q3 2025, 1,263,000,000 in fiscal Q1 2026 and 3,720,000,000 in fiscal Q2 2026; operating income followed the same pattern, from - 900,000,000 up to 5,196,000,000 by fiscal Q2 2026.
Balance‑sheet and capital‑structure items in the filings support the earnings picture: reported cost of revenue and trailing twelve‑month free cash flow ( 5,949,000,000 ) and EBITDA ( 11,341,000,000 ) produce an enterprise value of 105,794,364,197 and a market capitalization of 105,407,364,197 in this dataset, giving P/FCF ≈ 18.09, EV/EBITDA ≈ 9.33 and P/E (ttm) ≈ 16.16. Cash and cash equivalents rose from 4,657,000,000 as of 2024-12-31 to 7,874,000,000 as of 2026-06-30, shares outstanding have trended down from 314,977,519 as of 2025-02-21 to 287,927,461 as of 2026-07-24, and long‑term debt was reported at 8,261,000,000 as of 2025-12-31. Market commentary included in the package emphasizes that the stock “trades richly” after roughly a 7x multi‑year share run, and the valuation model used a price of 366.09 per share as of 2026-09-02, implying a model‑implied perpetual FCF growth of 6.59% per year under the stated assumptions.
How this note was made
every stage ran before the note was writtenAnalyst desk
Mercer, Oakes, Nash, Ellis, Yates, Talbot and Archer. The desk: named AI agents, not people. Each reads one slice of the evidence and nothing else — no outside knowledge, no browsing — so every finding traces to a source you can open.
Reads the XBRL figures companies file with the SEC — revenue, margins, income, debt and share count, quarter by quarter — and reports which way the trend is running.
Valero's diluted earnings per share moved from -1.90 for the fiscal Q1 2025 (2025-01-01 to 2025-03-31, 3mo) to 2.28 in fiscal Q2 2025 (2025-04-01 to 2025-06-30, 3mo), 3.53 in fiscal Q3 2025 (2025-07-01 to 2025-09-30, 3mo), 4.22 in fiscal Q1 2026 (2026-01-01 to 2026-03-31, 3mo) and 12.62 in fiscal Q2 2026 (2026-04-01 to 2026-06-30, 3mo).
XBRL companyfacts · 0001035002-25-000017Quarterly net income rose from -595,000,000 in fiscal Q1 2025 (2025-01-01 to 2025-03-31, 3mo) to 714,000,000 in fiscal Q2 2025 (2025-04-01 to 2025-06-30, 3mo), 1,095,000,000 in fiscal Q3 2025 (2025-07-01 to 2025-09-30, 3mo), 1,263,000,000 in fiscal Q1 2026 (2026-01-01 to 2026-03-31, 3mo) and 3,720,000,000 in fiscal Q2 2026 (2026-04-01 to 2026-06-30, 3mo).
XBRL companyfacts · 0001035002-25-000017Reads the filings themselves, above all the year-over-year diff of Item 1A risk factors: which risks a company added, dropped or quietly reworded since its last annual report.
Nothing in this slice of the evidence rose to a claim — a quiet read, which itself is information.
Which filings the desk reads
The desk reads the annual 10-K in full — its risk factors, and how they changed since last year. Quarterly 10-Qs and event filings (8-Ks, insider Form 4s) are listed for context but not read line by line: the 10-K is where the material risk disclosures live. A brand-new company, or one we have only just begun tracking, may have no annual report on file yet — its risk analysis fills in once that lands.
Reads the signal panel above — momentum, volatility, drawdown, relative strength and beta — and ranks each against the whole research universe rather than judging it in isolation.
No computed signal history for this symbol yet — signals need roughly 70 trading days of price history.
Reads which funds hold the name and at what weight, plus insider Form 4 filings, to show the exposure you may already carry through index funds.
As of 2026-09-02T13:45:47.228469+00:00, VLO is a constituent of the ETF with symbol IVV at a weight of 0.12% of that fund.
ETF constituents · market dataThe provided ownership evidence only shows a single ETF membership record (IVV) with a 0.12% weight as of the timestamp in the data; no other ETF holdings or changes are included in the evidence.
ETF constituents · market dataReads recent headlines that are genuinely about this company, ignoring rating chatter and market-wide stories. Findings argue in the debate but never move the sentiment score.
Headline coverage emphasizes that Valero 'trades richly' after a roughly 7x multi‑year share price run.
News · simplywall.st · 2026-09-03The article states valuation checks — including a Discounted Cash Flow intrinsic value estimate and market multiples — point to the shares appearing overvalued.
News · simplywall.st · 2026-09-03Reads parsed Forms 3/4/5 — who bought or sold, at what size, and whether a 10b5-1 plan was involved. Flags clustered open-market officer buying; treats plan sales as routine and never counts a fund or 10%-holder as an officer.
No insider transactions on file in the trailing 180 days.
Reads the implied-expectations math built from the company's own filings (the growth rate today's price would justify, and the multiples beside it) and argues whether the market's bar looks high or low for this business. Never turns the math into a target.
The price used in this analysis was 366.09 per share as of 2026-09-02, and the model-implied free cash flow (FCF) growth rate that today's price would justify (under the stated discount and terminal assumptions) is 6.59% per year.
Valuation inputs · SEC XBRL + stored EOD closeTrailing twelve-month valuation multiples from the filings show P/FCF = 18.09, EV/EBITDA = 9.33, and P/E (ttm) = 16.16.
Valuation inputs · SEC XBRL + stored EOD closeDebate and risk review
A bull and a bear contest the claims and the chair rules on each; the risk review stress-tests what survived.
A bull and a bear argue the analysts' claims across two rounds, then a chair rules on each one. Only what survives feeds the score — the argument is shown, not hidden, so you can judge the reasoning yourself.
The set of filings shows a clear, multi-quarter improvement in core profitability metrics: EPS swung from negative to strongly positive and quarterly net income and operating income climbed sharply through Q2 2026. Cash balances increased and the company has reported meaningful share repurchases while shares outstanding have trended down, which together strengthen per-share cash generation. Valuation metrics (P/FCF ≈ 18, EV/EBITDA ≈ 9, implied perpetual FCF growth ~6.6%) are consistent with a mature, capital‑intensive company priced for steady cash flows rather than high growth, which aligns with the observed rising FCF and EBITDA levels in the filings. Against critique that the stock ‘‘trades richly’’ based on market multiples alone, the company‑level evidence of rising operating income, higher cash, and active buybacks materially support a favorable read on its recent financial progress.
Chair's verdict, claim by claim
Fragility · computed, not argued
balanced0.47
17 surviving claims rest on 6 distinct sources; the heaviest analyst carries 47% of them, and 97% of what the desk raised survived the debate.
Evidence rests on a small set of official filings and a few secondary sources, which raises baseline reliability for reported historical accounting figures but limits breadth. Heavy dependence on one analyst and the fact that nearly all desk claims survived review mean the read is internally consistent but somewhat fragile to new or contradicting source material — give more weight to claims directly anchored in company filings and watch for the next SEC filing.
Disconfirming evidence · base rates · falsifiers
Context
Outside consensus, and where this name already sits in your own portfolio.
Third-party consensus shown for context. It never enters Moneyta sentiment — when the two diverge, the debate above is where the why lives.
What this was built from
Every figure on this page traces to one of these. The desk reads only what is listed here — no outside knowledge, no browsing — and each card shows who read it and what it contributed to the score.
15 filings· 1 cited
SEC XBRL filings
Quarterly figures as filed with the SEC, read straight from EDGAR's structured data — not retyped or estimated.
Read by Mercer+1.4 to the score
1 holdings record
Fund holdings
Which funds hold this name and at what weight, plus insider Form 4 filings.
Read by Ellis+0.0 to the score
1 headline
News coverage
Recent headlines about this company, rating chatter excluded and nothing published after the report date.
Read by Yatesnothing survived
1 computation
Valuation inputs
TTM cash-flow figures from the company's own XBRL filings, priced with the stored closing price. Implied growth and multiples only; no fair-value dollar figure reaches the desk, by design.
Read by Archercontext only
1 record· 0 cited
Company profile
Sector, industry and company details.
1 record· 0 cited
Analyst consensus
Third-party consensus, shown for context only — it never enters Moneyta sentiment.
Read means we pulled and handed it to an analyst; cited means a claim on this page points at it. Reading twelve quarters to state one trend is normal — the gap is shown rather than hidden.
Written by AI, checked against sources
The analysts, the bull–bear debate and the editor's note are AI agents reading only the evidence listed on this page. They can misread a filing or a headline, which is why every claim cites a source you can open and check yourself. The sentiment score is arithmetic over the claims that survived the debate, not a language model's opinion.
Educational analysis of published data. Moneyta does not give investment advice or make recommendations. Past patterns do not indicate future results.
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Institutional holders
Net institutional flow, Q/Q
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Insider buys, 90 days
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Street target range
The real figures are for members. Educational analysis, not advice.
Educational analysis of published data. Moneyta does not give investment advice or make recommendations.