VST
Vistra Corp.Evidence as of 2026-09-03The desk's Snapshot
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Overview · Vistra Corp.
Vistra Corp., together with its subsidiaries, operates as an integrated retail electricity and power generation company. The company operates through six segments: Retail, Texas, East, West, Sunset, and Asset Closure. It retails electricity and natural gas to residential, commercial, and industrial customers across 20 states in the United States and the District of Columbia. In addition, the company is involved in th…
Management team
- Mr. Steven van Tuijl · Regional Managing Director of Continental EuropeFind on LinkedIn
- Ms. Sano Blocker · Senior Vice President of Government AffairsFind on LinkedIn
- Ms. Margaret M. Montemayor · Senior VP, Chief Accounting Officer & ControllerFind on LinkedIn
- Mr. Scott A. Hudson · Executive VP & President of RetailFind on LinkedIn
Start free to see the full management team.
Links open LinkedIn searches, not verified profiles. Team data from our market-data vendor's company profile.
Moneyta sentiment
Where the published evidence leans after the desk debated it, not a rating or a recommendation.
−0.0 on a −2 to +2 scale (was −0.1 before the debate changed the read).
What builds the score
Solid bars are analyst rubric scores; faded bars are computed directly from data. Claims dropped in debate count for nothing; weakened claims count at half weight.
Editor's note
Written after the debate settled. The rest of the page is the evidence behind it.
The surviving evidence presents a mixed picture. Weighted‑average diluted shares outstanding fell from 341,856,774 in Q1 2026 (fiscal quarter ended 2026-05-01) to 339,230,976 in Q2 2026 (fiscal quarter ended 2026-08-03), and point‑in‑time common shares moved from 337,182,468 as of 2026-05-01 to 335,635,195 as of 2026-08-03. Operating margin compression is visible across the compared periods: operating income was $ 1,499,000,000 on revenues of $ 5,640,000,000 (≈ 26.6%) in Q1 2026, $ 1,037,000,000 on $ 4,977,000,000 (≈ 20.8%) in Q3 2025 (fiscal quarter ended 2025-10-31), and $ 553,000,000 on $ 4,017,000,000 (≈ 13.8%) in Q2 2026. Reported net income and diluted EPS declined from net income $ 1,029,000,000 and diluted EPS $ 2.87 in Q1 2026 to net income $ 305,000,000 and diluted EPS $ 0.76 in Q2 2026, while long‑term debt rose to $ 19,595,000,000 as of 2026-06-30 against cash of $ 435,000,000 at that same date.
Market and ownership signals also survive the desk review: short‑ and medium‑term momentum and relative strength metrics are negative, three‑year drawdown and elevated volatility remain, institutional and some insider buying appear in filings and headlines, and valuation multiples include P/FCF 51.5, EV/EBITDA 12.16, and P/E 23.18 on trailing figures.
How this note was made
every stage ran before the note was writtenAnalyst desk
Mercer, Oakes, Nash, Ellis, Yates, Talbot and Archer. The desk: named AI agents, not people. Each reads one slice of the evidence and nothing else (no outside knowledge, no browsing), so every finding traces to a source you can open.
Reads the XBRL figures companies file with the SEC (revenue, margins, income, debt and share count, quarter by quarter) and reports which way the trend is running.
Weighted-average diluted shares outstanding fell from 341,856,774 in fiscal Q1 2026 (2026-01-01 to 2026-03-31) to 339,230,976 in fiscal Q2 2026 (2026-04-01 to 2026-06-30), and reported point-in-time common shares outstanding moved from 337,182,468 as of 2026-05-01 to 335,635,195 as of 2026-08-03.
XBRL companyfacts · 0001692819-26-000014Operating income and revenue show margin compression: fiscal Q1 2026 (2026-01-01 to 2026-03-31) operating income 1,499,000,000 on revenues 5,640,000,000 (operating margin ≈ 26.6%), fiscal Q3 2025 (2025-07-01 to 2025-09-30) operating income 1,037,000,000 on revenues 4,977,000,000 (≈ 20.8%), and fiscal Q2 2026 (2026-04-01 to 2026-06-30) operating income 553,000,000 on revenues 4,017,000,000 (≈ 13.8%).
XBRL companyfacts · 0001692819-26-000014Reads the filings themselves, above all the year-over-year diff of Item 1A risk factors: which risks a company added, dropped or quietly reworded since its last annual report.
Which filings the desk reads
The desk reads the annual 10-K in full: its risk factors, and how they changed since last year. Quarterly 10-Qs and event filings (8-Ks, insider Form 4s) are listed for context but not read line by line: the 10-K is where the material risk disclosures live. A brand-new company, or one we have only just begun tracking, may have no annual report on file yet; its risk analysis fills in once that lands.
A Form 4 related to the company was filed on 2026-08-24 (evidence record present).
4 filed 2026-08-24The provided evidence record shows the Form 4 entry with parse_status marked as "skipped", indicating no parsed transaction details are available in this dataset.
4 filed 2026-08-24Reads the signal panel above (momentum, volatility, drawdown, relative strength and beta) and ranks each against the whole research universe rather than judging it in isolation.
As of 2026-09-02, 12-1 momentum is -30.8% and ranks in the 9th percentile of the 547-stock research universe.
Moneyta signal set · 2026-09-02weakened in debatePrice-based short- and medium-term momentum metrics are negative as of 2026-09-02: momentum_3m = -6.6% and momentum_6m = -11.9% (momentum_6m ranks in the 17th percentile of the universe).
Moneyta signal set · 2026-09-02weakened in debateReads which funds hold the name and at what weight, plus insider Form 4 filings, to show the exposure you may already carry through index funds.
As of 2026-09-02T13:45:47.228469+00:00, the ETF iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV) held VST at a weight of 0.08% of the fund.
ETF constituents · market dataA Form 4 filing for VST with the 4 filed 24 August 2026 was filed on 2026-08-24; the parsed record shows parse_status 'skipped' and primary_doc_url is null in the evidence set.
Form 4 × 1 (90d window not enforced here)Reads recent headlines that are genuinely about this company, ignoring rating chatter and market-wide stories. Findings argue in the debate but never move the sentiment score.
Bridgewater Associates disclosed an increase in its Vistra stake (116% to 751,695 shares) in an August 14 filing, and coverage framed this as part of a rotation away from semiconductors into power.
News · finance.yahoo.com · 2026-09-03A valuation-focused headline compared Vistra's GF Value of $170.64 to a price of $143.46, presenting the stock as below that valuation metric.
News · gurufocus.com · 2026-09-02Reads parsed Forms 3/4/5: who bought or sold, at what size, and whether a 10b5-1 plan was involved. Flags clustered open-market officer buying; treats plan sales as routine and never counts a fund or 10%-holder as an officer.
On 2026-08-24, BURKE JAMES A (President and CEO) bought 2,000 shares for a reported value of "$270k".
Form 4 · BURKE JAMES A (President and CEO) · $270k bought · 2026-08-24The filing for the 2026-08-24 transaction does not indicate a trading plan; the transaction's trading_plan field is null in the parsed evidence.
Form 4 · BURKE JAMES A (President and CEO) · $270k bought · 2026-08-24Reads the implied-expectations math built from the company's own filings (the growth rate today's price would justify, and the multiples beside it) and argues whether the market's bar looks high or low for this business. Never turns the math into a target.
The model-backed implied free cash flow (FCF) growth rate that today's price would justify is 33.83% per year under the stated discount and terminal assumptions.
Valuation inputs · SEC XBRL + stored EOD closePrice-to-trailing-twelve-months free cash flow (P/FCF) is 51.5 based on a price of $143.46 as of 2026-09-02 and trailing twelve-month FCF of $945,000,000.
Valuation inputs · SEC XBRL + stored EOD closeDebate and risk review
A bull and a bear contest the claims and the chair rules on each; the risk review stress-tests what survived.
A bull and a bear argue the analysts' claims across two rounds, then a chair rules on each one. Only what survives feeds the score. The argument is shown, not hidden, so you can judge the reasoning yourself.
Several items in the record jointly support a favorable read: reported share count trends and discrete repurchases show active capital return and modest share dilution reduction, while multiple independent evidence items document insider buying and institutional accumulation (Bridgewater, Northwestern Mutual, CEO purchases). News reporting of expanded natural gas and nuclear footprint plus long-dated PPAs and heavy hedging constitute company-level evidence of contracted, long-duration revenue that can stabilize cash flows; this connects to the neutral-to-favorable valuation signals like EV/EBITDA ≈ 12 and P/E ≈ 23, which are evidence-strength indicators that the enterprise and earnings multiples are not extreme even as P/FCF is elevated. The bull case contests isolated quarter-to-quarter margin and net-income declines as large but temporally concentrated items (evidence shows sharp swings between adjacent quarters), and notes that several sell-side firms recently published buy ratings and price targets, which is an additional corroborating market signal. Evidence strength: insider and institutional filings and multiple news items are direct and recent; share-reduction and repurchase figures come from filings and are high-strength; quarter operating and income declines and rising long-term debt are also high-strength but represent point-in-time quarterly dynamics that can reflect timing of contracts, hedges, or investments rather than an enduring structural failure.
Chair's verdict, claim by claim
Fragility · computed, not argued
balanced0.34
32 surviving claims rest on 14 distinct sources; the heaviest analyst carries 19% of them, and 97% of what the desk raised survived the debate.
The read rests on a moderate number of surviving claims drawn from a limited set of sources; that gives it useful signal but creates concentration risk where a few documents and an influential analyst carry outsized weight. Because most desk points survived the internal debate, the set is coherent, but heavyweight dependencies and limited new parsed filing detail make the conclusions more fragile to a small number of new or corrected primary documents.
Disconfirming evidence · base rates · falsifiers
Context
Outside consensus, and where this name already sits in your own portfolio.
Third-party consensus shown for context. It never enters Moneyta sentiment. When the two diverge, the debate above is where the why lives.
What this was built from
Every figure on this page traces to one of these. The desk reads only what is listed here (no outside knowledge, no browsing), and each card shows who read it and what it contributed to the score.
12 filings· 1 cited
SEC XBRL filings
Quarterly figures as filed with the SEC, read straight from EDGAR's structured data, not retyped or estimated.
Read by Mercer−0.3 to the score
1 document
SEC filing documents
The filings themselves, including the year-over-year comparison of Item 1A risk factors.
Read by Oakes+0.0 to the score
1 signal set
Moneyta signal set
Computed from our own end-of-day price history and ranked against the whole research universe. No AI involved.
Read by Nash−0.9 to the score
2 holdings records
Fund holdings
Which funds hold this name and at what weight, plus insider Form 4 filings.
Read by Ellis+0.0 to the score
8 headlines· 2 cited
News coverage
Recent headlines about this company, rating chatter excluded and nothing published after the report date.
Read by Yatesnothing survived
1 filing
Insider filings
Parsed Forms 3/4/5 from EDGAR: named insiders, share counts, prices, and 10b5-1 plan state, with stated and inferred flags kept apart.
Read by Talbot+1.0 to the score
1 computation
Valuation inputs
TTM cash-flow figures from the company's own XBRL filings, priced with the stored closing price. Implied growth and multiples only; no fair-value dollar figure reaches the desk, by design.
Read by Archercontext only
1 record· 0 cited
Company profile
Sector, industry and company details.
1 record· 0 cited
Analyst consensus
Third-party consensus, shown for context only; it never enters Moneyta sentiment.
Read means we pulled and handed it to an analyst; cited means a claim on this page points at it. Reading twelve quarters to state one trend is normal; the gap is shown rather than hidden.
Written by AI, checked against sources
The analysts, the bull–bear debate and the editor's note are AI agents reading only the evidence listed on this page. They can misread a filing or a headline, which is why every claim cites a source you can open and check yourself. The sentiment score is arithmetic over the claims that survived the debate, not a language model's opinion.
Educational analysis of published data. Moneyta does not give investment advice or make recommendations. Past patterns do not indicate future results.
The full terminal on VST Gold
Who holds it, who's buying, what the Street thinks: live behind the lock, updated as filings land.
Institutional holders
Net institutional flow, Q/Q
Largest holder position
Insider buys, 90 days
Clustered insider value
Street target range
The real figures are for members. Educational analysis, not advice.
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Educational analysis of published data. Moneyta does not give investment advice or make recommendations.