XOM
EXXON MOBIL CORPEvidence as of 2026-09-12The desk's Snapshot
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Overview · EXXON MOBIL CORP
Exxon Mobil Corporation engages in the exploration and production of crude oil and natural gas in the United States and internationally. It operates through Upstream, Energy Products, Chemical Products, and Specialty Products segments. The Upstream segment explores for and produces crude oil and natural gas. The Energy Products segment offers fuels, aromatics, and catalysts, as well as licensing services. The Chemica…
Management team
- Ms. Karen T. McKee · VP & President of ExxonMobil Product Solutions CompanyFind on LinkedIn
- Mr. Jack P. Williams Jr. · Senior Vice PresidentFind on LinkedIn
- Mr. Neil A. Chapman · Senior Vice PresidentFind on LinkedIn
- Ms. Kathryn A. Mikells · Senior VP & CFOFind on LinkedIn
Start free to see the full management team.
Links open LinkedIn searches, not verified profiles. Team data from our market-data vendor's company profile.
Moneyta sentiment
Where the published evidence leans after the desk debated it, not a rating or a recommendation.
−0.4 on a −2 to +2 scale.
What builds the score
Solid bars are analyst rubric scores; faded bars are computed directly from data. Claims dropped in debate count for nothing; weakened claims count at half weight.
Editor's note
Written after the debate settled. The rest of the page is the evidence behind it.
Mixed ( -0.4 of a possible +2; was -0.4 before debate ) · confidence high. The desk’s surviving evidence shows that total revenues rose to $ 85,138,000,000 in fiscal Q1 2026 (fiscal quarter ended 2026-03-31) from $ 83,130,000,000 in fiscal Q1 2025 (fiscal quarter ended 2025-03-31), while reported net income fell to $ 4,183,000,000 in fiscal Q1 2026 from $ 7,713,000,000 in fiscal Q1 2025. That combination compressed net income margin to about 4.9% in fiscal Q1 2026 versus roughly 9.3% in fiscal Q1 2025, even as the company repurchased roughly $ 4,868,000,000 of common stock in fiscal Q1 2026 and shares outstanding declined by about 164,691,659 over the 12‑month span.
The balance sheet shows cash and cash equivalents trending down to $ 8,435,000,000 as of 2026-03-31 from $ 17,036,000,000 as of 2025-03-31, while total assets edged from $ 451,908,000,000 to $ 464,410,000,000 and total liabilities rose from $ 182,102,000,000 to $ 203,414,000,000 over the same interval. Market and ownership signals that survived review include a 12‑1 momentum reading of + 55.7% (84th percentile), a trailing‑twelve‑month dividend yield of + 2.48% (73rd percentile), a 3‑year maximum drawdown of - 20.1% (90th percentile), and large institutional holdings reported at $ 466.45B in the 13F for the quarter ended 2026-03-31.
How this note was made
every stage ran before the note was writtenAnalyst desk
Mercer, Oakes, Nash, Ellis, Yates, Talbot and Archer. The desk: named AI agents, not people. Each reads one slice of the evidence and nothing else (no outside knowledge, no browsing), so every finding traces to a source you can open.
Reads the XBRL figures companies file with the SEC (revenue, margins, income, debt and share count, quarter by quarter) and reports which way the trend is running.
Total revenues were 85,138,000,000 USD in the fiscal Q1 2026 (2026-01-01 to 2026-03-31, 3mo) versus 83,130,000,000 USD in the fiscal Q1 2025 (2025-01-01 to 2025-03-31, 3mo), with intervening quarterly values of 81,506,000,000 USD in fiscal Q2 2025 (2025-04-01 to 2025-06-30, 3mo) and 85,294,000,000 USD in fiscal Q3 2025 (2025-07-01 to 2025-09-30, 3mo).
XBRL companyfacts · 0000034088-26-000067Reported net income fell to 4,183,000,000 USD in the fiscal Q1 2026 (2026-01-01 to 2026-03-31, 3mo) from 7,713,000,000 USD in the fiscal Q1 2025 (2025-01-01 to 2025-03-31, 3mo), with interim quarterly net income of 7,082,000,000 USD in fiscal Q2 2025 (2025-04-01 to 2025-06-30, 3mo) and 7,548,000,000 USD in fiscal Q3 2025 (2025-07-01 to 2025-09-30, 3mo).
XBRL companyfacts · 0000034088-26-000067Reads the filings themselves, above all the year-over-year diff of Item 1A risk factors: which risks a company added, dropped or quietly reworded since its last annual report.
Which filings the desk reads
The desk reads the annual 10-K in full: its risk factors, and how they changed since last year. Quarterly 10-Qs and event filings (8-Ks, insider Form 4s) are listed for context but not read line by line: the 10-K is where the material risk disclosures live. A brand-new company, or one we have only just begun tracking, may have no annual report on file yet; its risk analysis fills in once that lands.
The company added a new risk item titled "Restrictions on doing business" that highlights exposure to laws and sanctions that "may prohibit ExxonMobil or its affiliates from doing business in certain countries or with certain counterparties" and notes such restrictions "may provide a competitive advantage to competitors who may not be subject to comparable restrictions."
10-K filed 2026-02-18The risk disclosures were expanded to explicitly call out heightened litigation and enforcement exposure, including that "we also may be adversely affected by the outcome of litigation, including class actions or arbitrations" and government investigations or enforcement proceedings, with a note about unpredictable punitive and non-economic damage awards in some jurisdictions.
10-K filed 2026-02-18Reads the signal panel above (momentum, volatility, drawdown, relative strength and beta) and ranks each against the whole research universe rather than judging it in isolation.
As of 2026-09-11, the 12-1 momentum measure is +55.7% and ranks in the 84th percentile of the 558-stock research universe, indicating above-average 12-month momentum relative to peers.
Moneyta signal set · 2026-09-11weakened in debateAs of 2026-09-11, the 3-year maximum drawdown is -20.1% and this drawdown metric is in the 90th percentile of the 558-stock research universe, indicating a relatively large 3-year drawdown versus peers.
Moneyta signal set · 2026-09-11Reads which funds hold the name and at what weight, plus insider Form 4 filings, to show the exposure you may already carry through index funds.
The latest reported 13F quarter, ended 31 March 2026, shows total reported institutional holdings of $466.45B across 4,747 holders.
13F holdings · 4747 filers · as of 2026-03-31BlackRock, Inc. is listed as a top holder with a reported value of $54.76B in the 13F for the period ended 31 March 2026.
13F holdings · 4747 filers · as of 2026-03-31Reads recent headlines that are genuinely about this company, ignoring rating chatter and market-wide stories. Findings argue in the debate but never move the sentiment score.
Several outlets reported that headlines about Exxon were driven by a market narrative around a reported 5.7 million-barrel supply drop cited from the IEA, with coverage linking that supply story to Exxon’s share movement on 11 September 2026.
News · finance.yahoo.com · 2026-09-11Multiple distinct outlets reused the same IEA-driven headline on 11 September 2026, with at least finance.yahoo.com and gurufocus.com carrying the 'Exxon Edged Higher as IEA Sees a 5.7 Million-Barrel Supply Drop' story.
News · gurufocus.com · 2026-09-11Reads parsed Forms 3/4/5: who bought or sold, at what size, and whether a 10b5-1 plan was involved. Flags clustered open-market officer buying; treats plan sales as routine and never counts a fund or 10%-holder as an officer.
On 2026-03-16, Talley Darrin L (VP - Corp Strategic Planning) reported an open-market sale of 1,080 shares for a total value of "$168k".
Form 4 · Talley Darrin L (VP - Corp Strategic Planning) · $168k sold · 2026-03-16The parsed insider activity window (180 days) shows "$0" in officer open-market buys and net shares of "-1080" for the period covered by the provided filings.
Form 4 · Talley Darrin L (VP - Corp Strategic Planning) · $168k sold · 2026-03-16Reads the implied-expectations math built from the company's own filings (the growth rate today's price would justify, and the multiples beside it) and argues whether the market's bar looks high or low for this business. Never turns the math into a target.
The model-derived implied free-cash-flow growth rate that today’s price would justify is 13.97% (implied_growth = 0.1397).
Valuation inputs · SEC XBRL + stored EOD closePrice-to-free-cash-flow (P/FCF) on trailing twelve months free cash flow is 24.47.
Valuation inputs · SEC XBRL + stored EOD closeDebate and risk review
A bull and a bear contest the claims and the chair rules on each; the risk review stress-tests what survived.
A bull and a bear argue the analysts' claims across two rounds, then a chair rules on each one. Only what survives feeds the score. The argument is shown, not hidden, so you can judge the reasoning yourself.
Several provided items, taken together, support a favorable reading: trailing twelve‑month free cash flow is sizable ($29.8B) with meaningful FCF per share, the company executed consistent repurchases that reduced shares outstanding by ~165M over 12 months, and the stock shows strong 12‑month momentum and a relatively high dividend yield versus peers. High reported institutional and ETF ownership indicates broad investor participation and liquidity. Although GAAP net income and cash balances declined and risk disclosures were expanded, the MD&A items and operational headlines (Angola find; market supply commentary) show active operational developments and explicit planning assumptions rather than simple lack of activity. These claims jointly emphasize cash-generative operations, shareholder return activity, and market interest, which counterbalance the headline accounting and risk items.
Chair's verdict, claim by claim
Fragility · computed, not argued
balanced0.38
37 surviving claims rest on 13 distinct sources; the heaviest analyst carries 19% of them, and 99% of what the desk raised survived the debate.
The desk’s read is based on a moderate number of distinct sources but a fairly large set of surviving claims, and one analyst accounts for a meaningful share of those claims — this raises caution about source concentration and single-analyst influence. High survival through debate suggests internal consensus, but reliance on a limited set of documents (filings and a few computed signals) means individual source revisions or a new filing could materially change several upheld points.
Peer context · computed, not argued
12-1 momentum ranks 1st of 4 in Oil & Gas Integrated (as of 2026-09-11).
90-day volatility ranks 2nd of 4 in Oil & Gas Integrated (as of 2026-09-11).
dividend yield ranks 3rd of 4 in Oil & Gas Integrated (as of 2026-09-11).
Disconfirming evidence · base rates · falsifiers
Context
Outside consensus, and where this name already sits in your own portfolio.
Third-party consensus shown for context. It never enters Moneyta sentiment. When the two diverge, the debate above is where the why lives.
What this was built from
Every figure on this page traces to one of these. The desk reads only what is listed here (no outside knowledge, no browsing), and each card shows who read it and what it contributed to the score.
12 filings· 2 cited
SEC XBRL filings
Quarterly figures as filed with the SEC, read straight from EDGAR's structured data, not retyped or estimated.
Read by Mercer−0.1 to the score
5 documents· 2 cited
SEC filing documents
The filings themselves, including the year-over-year comparison of Item 1A risk factors.
Read by Oakes−0.5 to the score
1 signal set
Moneyta signal set
Computed from our own end-of-day price history and ranked against the whole research universe. No AI involved.
Read by Nash+0.1 to the score
2 holdings records· 1 cited
Fund holdings
Which funds hold this name and at what weight, plus insider Form 4 filings.
Read by Ellis+0.8 to the score
7 headlines· 2 cited
News coverage
Recent headlines about this company, rating chatter excluded and nothing published after the report date.
Read by Yatesnothing survived
1 filing
Insider filings
Parsed Forms 3/4/5 from EDGAR: named insiders, share counts, prices, and 10b5-1 plan state, with stated and inferred flags kept apart.
Read by Talbot−0.7 to the score
1 computation
Valuation inputs
TTM cash-flow figures from the company's own XBRL filings, priced with the stored closing price. Implied growth and multiples only; no fair-value dollar figure reaches the desk, by design.
Read by Archercontext only
1 record· 0 cited
Company profile
Sector, industry and company details.
1 record· 0 cited
Analyst consensus
Third-party consensus, shown for context only; it never enters Moneyta sentiment.
Read means we pulled and handed it to an analyst; cited means a claim on this page points at it. Reading twelve quarters to state one trend is normal; the gap is shown rather than hidden.
Written by AI, checked against sources
The analysts, the bull–bear debate and the editor's note are AI agents reading only the evidence listed on this page. They can misread a filing or a headline, which is why every claim cites a source you can open and check yourself. The sentiment score is arithmetic over the claims that survived the debate, not a language model's opinion.
Educational analysis of published data. Moneyta does not give investment advice or make recommendations. Past patterns do not indicate future results.
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Institutional holders
Net institutional flow, Q/Q
Largest holder position
Insider buys, 90 days
Clustered insider value
Street target range
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